Team Mafia 2020: Open Setup - Game Over

[Titus]

VOTE: unwind

Pops’ Krazy read is extremely suspicious the way she keeps continually waffling on that slot.

Why? Scum both doesn’t want to get their buddies lynched but they also want to maintain negative associatives in case they flip and it doesn’t look calculated from Pops at all - more like the whole grammar nonsense was a way to defect from this.

It reads more like opportunism to me. Waffling on a slot tends to be less dramatic.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Votecount 1.33

popsofctown (8) -

Something_Smart, bob3141, Eddie Cane, Titus, pisskop, Amrun, Elsa Jay, Nancy Drew 39

NaCl (2) -

Pine, popsofctown

unwnd (1) -

DrDolittle

Pine (1) -

Hectic

Not Voting (3) -

NaCl, unwnd, OkaPoka

With 15 players alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

A lynch has been achieved.

Votecount 1.31

popsofctown (5) -

Amrun, Something_Smart, bob3141, Eddie Cane, Titus

NaCl (3) -

Pine, pisskop, popsofctown

unwnd (2) -

OkaPoka, DrDolittle

Eddie Cane (1) -

Elsa Jay

Pine (1) -

Hectic

Not Voting (3) -

NaCl, unwnd, Nancy Drew 39

With 15 players alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

@Titus

Pops’ sheeped Piss on NaCl so it looks more like an attempt to frame Piss more than anything. The reason why NaCl may be town is that if I’m right about Piss town, then his town flip would look horrible for NaCl but that is much weaker since Pops just sheeped him.

[Nancy Drew 39]

So, yes Titus, if you want to still be taken seriously as a champion of VCA, then you ought to be seeing this az well. Why? Because it’s the easiest thing in the world for scum to hide their buddies under a sea of “other people”.

Looking at the post you quoted is decent analysis but not VCA. VCA stands for Vote Count Analysis. The post you referenced is not a vote count.

I would expect at most 1 scum hidden in the other names. That's the rule of 3. You and Pisskop are less likely to be a team for the same reason.

Based on my current reads, I’d say both.

The rule of 3 suggests that in any category of 3 or more, there's likely to be one scum but no more. I suppose it's more accurately called a theory.

If it wasn’t for the “other people” category, I might agree with you but then my problem is, I’m tr everyone on that list.

[Titus]

Ahh now I see with the rephrasing.

I see that's a minor point as pisskop and pops were voting together on the same wagon. It's not exclusionary for two reasons. First, NaCl was a lurker at the time providing no value. Bussing him is a much more advantageous scenario than bussing Pops and a town NaCl is a huge boon to scum pisskop. So it weakens an NaCl pisskop pops solve but doesn't eliminate it.

I don't believe a frame job on pisskop. Rather, it looks more like scum resigning pops wasn't saveable.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Ahh now I see with the rephrasing.

I see that's a minor point as pisskop and pops were voting together on the same wagon. It's not exclusionary for two reasons. First, NaCl was a lurker at the time providing no value. Bussing him is a much more advantageous scenario than bussing Pops and a town NaCl is a huge boon to scum pisskop. So it weakens an NaCl pisskop pops solve but doesn't eliminate it.

I don't believe a frame job on pisskop. Rather, it looks more like scum resigning pops wasn't saveable.

But would scum!Pops vote on the same wagon with her buddy? But yeah, then I can also see scum possibly relying on the one scum on/on scum off theory so. it could also be an attempt to save him as well.

Do you think there could possibly have been pocketing in the Amrun/Piss hood?

[Nancy Drew 39]

{pops, Oka}
{pissk, ND}
other people
{Amrun}
{bob}
{Eddie}

I think that is where I am at now

If the rule of 3 were to apply which I really don’t think it does, then Amrun looks worse than bob because NKing your town neighbour is seriously hella stupid, unless you’re scum who’s actually slipped in your hood and based on Pine ISO, there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that’s the case.

[Titus]

Do you think there could possibly have been pocketing in the Amrun/Piss hood?

Yes to any hood. Although I tend to be a great user of hoods, I have a hard time analyzing content I can't see.

[Titus]

{pops, Oka}
{pissk, ND}
other people
{Amrun}
{bob}
{Eddie}

I think that is where I am at now

If the rule of 3 were to apply which I really don’t think it does, then Amrun looks worse than bob because NKing your town neighbour is seriously hella stupid, unless you’re scum who’s actually slipped in your hood and based on Pine ISO, there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that’s the case.

Fair enough on this. The Rule of 3 doesn't suggest which slot is more likely scum. The top half also is a set of 3 or more.

[Hectic]

She claims she said she was sure Pops was scummy from the getgo but in main thread, she claims to have tr her? And now, it’s a joke? It didn’t sound like it to me. Also her voting around Eddie wagon was suspicious. I also asked her about some comment she made earlier on about whether she thought Krazy could be PO and she said it was a joke but he’s town, so make of that what you will.

Do you mind paraphrasing Elsa saying he claimed Pops was scummy from the get go? And then also paraphrase him saying it's a joke later?

This could be condemning; I might have to start making recruitment posters again.

[Hectic]

Honestly, I think you guys are reading too much into her reads list. Maybe Pops is slightly more likely to split her team equally into the three sections - though I'm not sure what you're basing this on, but it's far more useful to look at when she goes into depth and explains her reads rather than viewing this random list that could've been put together in any way.

[Amrun]

DDL wants to kill S S. Please dont

amrun whats your numbers on smarty-pants town right now

I’m still betting on S_S town but skitter is more sure than I am.

[Amrun]

Okay, so pops vs Eddie, I don't think outing the neighborhood makes Eddie scum. Like, I get that Eddie can do it if he's careless scum but pops' argument doesn't make sense since he can also do it if he's annoyed town and I don't see why pops is reading into it in that way. It feels forced.
I initially liked pops for her earlier play because it didn't feel like it was scum-her and I think I actually know how she is as scum, unlike most people here. But the vote on Eddie feels like a reach.

this is town enough that I have no interest in voting nacl today

This is a good post and I’m going to go with it as well.

[pisskop]

Whats wrong titus, dont you trust me? Im not a very dangerous player.

[Amrun]

okapoka, eddie, ddl, pisskop, nancy
s_s, amrun
titus, unwnd, bob
nacl, elsa, hectic

Why am I higher than SS and Amrun?

I think you're most likely out of your scum range.

Any theories why Amrun still has me in her PoE, because I don’t believe she ever answered that? If you did Amrun, then please disregard but you seemed to be really set on keeping me in your PoE, even more so than Titus, it seems, eventhough she’s pushed me harder.

There have been things that struck me as town. However, my team finds you scummy.

Also, your stance on pops throughout the day was inconsistent. It definitely looks like an awkward bus. In fact, it’s SO awkward, it’s almost too awkward to be scum. There’s a reason you’re just on the top layer of my PoE; I have my eye on you, but I’m not at all convinced that you’re scum.

In addition, your progression on Krazy/unwnd today has made zero sense to me. I was asking you something expecting you to say you scumread him now, but you responded your TR was stronger than ever. Then a handful of posts later, you were scum reading him.

However, IIRC, you didn’t hop on Eddie when it would have been beneficial for scum to do so, especially since you were espousing a TR of pops at that time.

I’m really NOT interested in pursuing this. I would not prefer to lynch you today.

[Elsa Jay]

My god Hectic is literally just a Lyncher at heart. I commend him for his single-mindedness though.

[Nancy Drew 39]

{pops, Oka}
{pissk, ND}
other people
{Amrun}
{bob}
{Eddie}

I think that is where I am at now

If the rule of 3 were to apply which I really don’t think it does, then Amrun looks worse than bob because NKing your town neighbour is seriously hella stupid, unless you’re scum who’s actually slipped in your hood and based on Pine ISO, there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that’s the case.

Fair enough on this. The Rule of 3 doesn't suggest which slot is more likely scum. The top half also is a set of 3 or more.

Scum usually don’t put their buddies in their top tiers unless they’re consensus tr because they don’t want to be linked in case any of them flip. Like in MD 1, I had tw high up because everyone but Fire was obv townreading him but unless that’s the case - it’s a very risky thing to do but obviously the mechanics could mitigate that.

[Nancy Drew 39]

She claims she said she was sure Pops was scummy from the getgo but in main thread, she claims to have tr her? And now, it’s a joke? It didn’t sound like it to me. Also her voting around Eddie wagon was suspicious. I also asked her about some comment she made earlier on about whether she thought Krazy could be PO and she said it was a joke but he’s town, so make of that what you will.

Do you mind paraphrasing Elsa saying he claimed Pops was scummy from the get go? And then also paraphrase him saying it's a joke later?

This could be condemning; I might have to start making recruitment posters again.

Yes because it pinged me when she posted in the main thread that she was actually tr him, so I was like but you posted the exact opposite of that in our PT.

No, she said nothing in there about it being a “joke”, only after I brought it up here. It definitely did not sound like she was joking att. It read more like, I was sure she was scum all along, which makes no sense for her to then claim here, that she was actually tr her.

[Titus]

Whats wrong titus, dont you trust me? Im not a very dangerous player.

Yuck.

[Nancy Drew 39]

@mod, can we have an updated VC please?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Whats wrong titus, dont you trust me? Im not a very dangerous player.

Yuck.

The vast majority of that ISO is yuck.

[Nancy Drew 39]

okapoka, eddie, ddl, pisskop, nancy
s_s, amrun
titus, unwnd, bob
nacl, elsa, hectic

Why am I higher than SS and Amrun?

I think you're most likely out of your scum range.

Any theories why Amrun still has me in her PoE, because I don’t believe she ever answered that? If you did Amrun, then please disregard but you seemed to be really set on keeping me in your PoE, even more so than Titus, it seems, eventhough she’s pushed me harder.

There have been things that struck me as town. However, my team finds you scummy.

Also, your stance on pops throughout the day was inconsistent. It definitely looks like an awkward bus. In fact, it’s SO awkward, it’s almost too awkward to be scum. There’s a reason you’re just on the top layer of my PoE; I have my eye on you, but I’m not at all convinced that you’re scum.

In addition, your progression on Krazy/unwnd today has made zero sense to me. I was asking you something expecting you to say you scumread him now, but you responded your TR was stronger than ever. Then a handful of posts later, you were scum reading him.

However, IIRC, you didn’t hop on Eddie when it would have been beneficial for scum to do so, especially since you were espousing a TR of pops at that time.

I’m really NOT interested in pursuing this. I would not prefer to lynch you today.

That’s because Eddie was bleeding obvtown by that point. Elsa’s contradictions in our hood vs in the main thread, has totally messed up my reads because I hard townread her before that. So that obviously changes everything. No, I never said it was stronger than ever. Tell me where I said that. My new solve is iunwind/Piss/Elsa, so trying to decide between them. Pops’ unwind read was the most suspicious, which is why I voted there.

I am obviously not sure, so my reads change based on info. If you don’t want to mislynch, any day - me that is and I honestly don’t understand how Skitter is still sr me after PFUPS.

[Titus]

Nancy can you join me please? Pisskop is the only read we agree on. I'd like to work with you.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Nancy can you join me please? Pisskop is the only read we agree on. I'd like to work with you.

You’re convinced he’s scum? He could be, he does remind me a bit of GS here and a lot less of HP.

VOTE: Piss

Okay. I’m convinced it’s between him/unwind/Elsa. If there isn’t at least one scum between them, I’ll eat my hat.

[Titus]

If you aren't, yes I would be. His partner would be NaCl.

These are battles we can fight another day.

@Elsa Jay, Please back on Pisskop.

[Nancy Drew 39]

If you aren't, yes I would be. His partner would be NaCl.

These are battles we can fight another day.

@Elsa Jay, Please back on Pisskop.

*sigh*. How am I supposed to trust either yours or Amrun’s reads in that case?

UNVOTE:

I’ll work with you or whomever is correctly reading me. Ask to work with me then and not a moment sooner.