Team Mafia 2020: Open Setup - Game Over

Begins January 2nd, 2020
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Post Post #3775 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:49 am

Post by pisskop »

In post 3762, OkaPoka wrote:This is where you explain how 33% is quite high for any scum action
this is why arbitrary percentages are bad.

the action taken here isn't '33% of all scum will do this', nor 'lynching people who do this will result in a redflip 33% of the time'.

All titus is saying is that out of three games SS explicitly linked, it happened once. Which is misleading in it own right
beeboy - Everyone thought this game was made to troll pie but it was really made to troll pisskop.
Almost50 pisskop: Overall, that's a townie slot. Don't ask for specifics because with PK everything can be interpreted either way. It's probably WHEN he says/does things that matter, so it's more of a matter of conception rather than solid reasoning.
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Post Post #3776 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:02 am

Post by unwnd »

I don't really like this lynch.

I'll go back to lurking now
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Post Post #3777 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:03 am

Post by Titus »

In post 3770, Something_Smart wrote:Yes, I know the post in which it first appeared,

I don't know where she got that number from.
2 failed attempts, 1 successful one
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Post Post #3778 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:10 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

Titus, I know you're older and more educated than a lot of people here. You have to understand that your sample size is statistically insignificant, right? And,
even if you proved it happened less than rand, it is still one minor point
. Before DDL outed, your neighbor was statistically more likely to be scum than anybody else, that doesn't mean you auto kill them. Rule of 3 is similarly a light tell, and Pops is a good player.

Can we discuss something else?
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Post Post #3779 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:13 am

Post by OkaPoka »

No she proved its greater than rand :]
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Post Post #3780 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:13 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 3777, Titus wrote:2 failed attempts, 1 successful one
How do you know how many failed attempts I made? I didn't post them...
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Post Post #3781 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:14 am

Post by unwnd »

Unwnd, what gave you the idea about people lying about their role pm and stuff to their team? Because both you, Krazy and pops were all talking about the idea but as far as I know I'm the only person on a team that actually did a strategy of keeping some people unspoiled. I haven't looked at previous team mafia so I don't know if this seems to be something that actually happens often.
Everyone in our is saying they're town, myself included. We're operating under that pretense and have been. I didn't even consider lying (even if Krazy did) and didn't even really get the concept at first. My team is filled with people who enjoy winning so the pressure is double on me to perform and I have to tell them "sorry, feeling slightly demotivated and not important." I don't mean that in a melancholy way, It's just that it seems pretty hard to get a word in. Right now I sit pretty certain about a few things. I think this Pisskop wagon sucks, and especially from a set of fresh eyes. A lot of the arguments seem to pertain to what happened prior to my joining and associative of Pops, but me personally I think that is a useless endeavor given to Pops' (normally) erratic behavior. This remains true to how I sorta felt in Assassin's, and I was reading you as scum on an individual basis. It doesn't help that I thought Pops was town but in the back of my mind the mistake I made townreading her was believing a lot of her nonsense, which I think she uses as a crutch.

One thing that I can recall from this game is S_S saying he 0 opinion of me essentially and is now voting me? I don't understand where the sudden shift happened and if it did I would like a reasoning for it perhaps.
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Post Post #3782 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:14 am

Post by OkaPoka »

Nvm less than rand :[
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Post Post #3783 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:14 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I checked 11 games and found 2 that matched that description so 18%.
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Post Post #3784 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:16 am

Post by unwnd »

Titus' behavior has suddenly heightened in order to lynch Pisskop but I think where scum is down a mate the strategy is definitely not to be bold. I think if I happen to be wrong on Pisskop this could end up a good spew but the question remains if the same wagon happens in sorta the same fashion as Pops and truly is just a bingo? Like, I don't understand people talking about VCA and then not considering what is happening before their very eyes.
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Post Post #3785 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:17 am

Post by Something_Smart »

But even that 18% is meaningless because it doesn't take into account the fact that scum made the second vote on someone in RVS. If I went to check those games for the number of times scum made the second vote in RVS, and saw what percentage of times that vote was on a partner, THEN it would mean something.

I can do that, if you'd like.
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Post Post #3786 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:19 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

I think a more useful stat is how often scum's first vote (in RVS) is on a partner. I don't think the second vote actually really matters.
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Post Post #3787 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:20 am

Post by OkaPoka »

Machine learning ecks dee
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Post Post #3788 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:20 am

Post by Something_Smart »

By second vote I mean being the second vote on the wagon, not the second vote made by that player. That's what Titus was talking about.

I don't think it matters either, for the record.
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Post Post #3789 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:29 am

Post by Titus »

In post 3780, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 3777, Titus wrote:2 failed attempts, 1 successful one
How do you know how many failed attempts I made? I didn't post them...
Collective attempts but if you made the same amount of failures individually that kinda proves my point.
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Post Post #3790 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:32 am

Post by Hectic »

That would be a more useful thing to look for, SS. I can't say it'd matter much, because it is just 1 small thing, but could be fun to look at.

I think Pissy's probably town and Elsa is a far better lynch. How is he he getting away with what he's been doing this day phase? Calling Titus and I lynchers at heart and then asking SS vaguely how he's doing is not townplay; it's scum coasting to the max.

Oh yeah, also, why are you townreading Elsa, SS?
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Post Post #3791 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:34 am

Post by Titus »

@Hectic, Elsa's not a lyncher.

Pisskop won't vote his scumread which would derail his wagon and make scum NaCl viable. That's Pisskop distancing.
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Post Post #3792 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:36 am

Post by Titus »

He instead attacks my methods because he knows his partner flips scum and I'll be right back on him given the consensus on Nancy town. So he'll go for a mislynch on Elsa instead.
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Post Post #3793 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:38 am

Post by bob3141 »

mm for now UNVOTE:

not liking taht most of teh players i town read are on piskop counter wagon. Will have to see why the late joiners joined
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Post Post #3794 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:40 am

Post by unwnd »

In post 3792, Titus wrote:He instead attacks my methods because he knows his partner flips scum and I'll be right back on him given the consensus on Nancy town. So he'll go for a mislynch on Elsa instead.
Do you really think Me / Piss are scummates together lol
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Post Post #3795 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:43 am

Post by Hectic »

In post 3639, Elsa Jay wrote:My god Hectic is literally just a Lyncher at heart. I commend him for his single-mindedness though.
In post 3696, Elsa Jay wrote:VOTE: Pisskop okay Titus.
Hectic wrote:
In post 2392, Elsa Jay wrote:VOTE: Eddie

Eh. From what I've read, I don't like Eddie much. So I'll recontribute again day 2 but for now I'm okay with your lynch.
Elsa voted Eddie before Krazy was announced to be replaced, Nancy. But why would it be less suspicious if he voted after the replacement anyway?
I voted Eddie at that point because I was mad at him for making Krazy feel bad. The replacement just demotivated me.
In post 3703, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 3698, pisskop wrote:
In post 3696, Elsa Jay wrote:I voted Eddie at that point because I was mad at him for making Krazy feel bad. The replacement just demotivated me.
still scum AtEing around about their feels
If You haven't realized at this point I'm an emotional player you've been reading me wrong since post 1. Don't just tell me my feeling are "lul fucking scummy AtE".
In post 3757, Elsa Jay wrote:You and Hectic wouldn't have to apologize. Your just doing your job as Lynchers.
In post 3763, Elsa Jay wrote:Hey Smarty, what was the last game we played together? Or was it with Bambi? You haven't stuck out to me so far from my limited viewing. How have you been?
I'm not talking about him being a lyncher, Titus. I'm talking about his most recent posts^
He's not even taking stances on whether the people pushing him are scum or town, he's just calling us "lynchers". That's not a good sign.
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Post Post #3796 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:47 am

Post by Titus »

In post 3794, unwnd wrote:
In post 3792, Titus wrote:He instead attacks my methods because he knows his partner flips scum and I'll be right back on him given the consensus on Nancy town. So he'll go for a mislynch on Elsa instead.
Do you really think Me / Piss are scummates together lol
No. Smh. Pisskop and NaCl.
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Post Post #3797 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:52 am

Post by unwnd »

In post 3796, Titus wrote:
In post 3794, unwnd wrote:
In post 3792, Titus wrote:He instead attacks my methods because he knows his partner flips scum and I'll be right back on him given the consensus on Nancy town. So he'll go for a mislynch on Elsa instead.
Do you really think Me / Piss are scummates together lol
No. Smh. Pisskop and NaCl.
Entertain me on that reasoning? I've been light skimmming.
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Post Post #3798 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:53 am

Post by Elsa Jay »

I'm calling you what you are Hectic, since you wont get off of me when clearly over half the town is going a different direction today.

Actually try solving other slots instead of going "Lynch Elsa" for 5 days in a row.
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Post Post #3799 (ISO) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:56 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

So uh, I'm going to change the topic of the thread.

Re: Elsa
In post 3667, Micc wrote:Elsa Jay (4) - unwnd, Hectic, OkaPoka, pisskop
1) This wagon is close to the bottom half of my reads list.
2) Ank is TRing Elsa
3) After a cursory meta skim, this is
slightly
more in line with Elsa's town game I think? The word "useless" still comes to mind though.

I don't really care if she dies unless her content increases, so I won't block the lynch. But I do not intend to vote her.


Re: Piss
In post 3744, Micc wrote:pisskop (6) - DrDolittle, bob3141, NaCl, Titus, Nancy Drew 39, Elsa Jay
Its an interesting gamestate, right? 'Cause if Pops was bsused, the most likely scum are probably in the subset of {bob, NaCl, SS} and two of those are voting. I guess? But my read of the game is not that, and I think independently SS is moderately townie. If NaCl was trying to bus, he had opportunity to vote earlier when Pops looked like she wasn't dying, and instead chose to take my side in the argument in a nondescript way. He could be wolf. Bob burying Pops felt townie to me. Maybe I'm wrong and he's wolf. But that is not how I am reading the game.

Piss has pretty bad Pops associations imo. I am personally looking for a scum on the Eddie wagon and see Piss as an option. Tonally, he has had some good posts. His strongest champion is Unwnd, who I am scum reading. I would not be shocked if he was town, and I would not be shocked if he was scum. The wagon on him is T, t, t, T, T, N, which is pretty solid. But with the amount of scum alive, its actually literally not that unreasonably likely for an all town group of 6 to be on a town anyways so meh. Dunno. I do not town read his play much, and I am okay with him dying. Probably my second or third kill. I see townie enough elements that he is not my first vote, though.


Re: Unwnd
In post 3744, Micc wrote:unwnd (3) - Amrun, Eddie Cane, Something_Smart
Krazy's play feels like bad case -> AtE -> Tilt -> replace out. This is pretty much a mirror of Alisae v Pine as scum. He did the same thing in Gay Dance as scum. That said, he also did the same thing in Merchant's Daughter as town. I believe he was genuinely upset as either alignment. Krazy is a player who dislikes scum, and when you roll scum and hate being scum, everything agitates you more. Your subconscious almost looks for a way to get out, is my theory. Its part of the reason replace outs are more likely to come from scum in general. Townreading him for replacing out is dumb.

Aside from the AtE, his interactions with Pops are super awkward. She scum reads him, but only pushes me, naked votes him randomly, and never considers going back to his wagon. They also never really engage past the surface level. It could be spew, but I don't think it is. I asked my team to all name 1 name without thinking of their top kill today, and all 3 of Tom Ank Dann said "unwnd". Unwnd's iso isn't really bad, its just also... not really anything. It is about as exciting as white bread.

Part of the thing about this gamestate is there are 5 towns to every scum from any townie's point of view. The odds of hitting scum today are very low, and I would not be insanely surprised if unwnd, piss, and hell even elsa all flipped town. But that's normal, and part of being town. There's a lot of town, and not a lot of scum. I asked everybody for reads lists, and Unwnd was in the bottom of the most people. So another factor for why I want to kill him is, infamously, the
information lynch
. Mechanically speaking, killing Elsa might be strictly the best information lynch because she fits in the most worlds and it narrows down the game for later on. But combining information and scumminess, unwnd is where I want to go.

Feel free to ignore me! There's another IC, and he is voting a wagon I support. My top kill is unwnd, I think the best kill is unwnd, and I could very well be wrong. We are at 150 pages, we don't need to waste more of them talking about statistical nonsense that would fit much better in an MD thread.
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