Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Kerset]

Vote Count 1.04

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

No łynch

(2): Kanna, Not A Korina Alt,

Bingle

(2): Poyzin, shos,

Poyzin

(2): Farkran, No łynch,

shos

(2): Bingle, Hectic,

Farkran

(1): Salamence20,

Salamence20

(0):

Hectic

(0):

Not A Korina Alt

(0):

Kanna

(0):

Not Voting

(0):

---

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

None

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00).

Mod notes:

Not A Korina Alt has v/la on weekends
Salamence20 has been prodded

[Not A Korina Alt]

Ebwop

If we have col A or C and row 3, then basically we just have to Lynch the leader and town can't lose?

If we lynch the CL d1, yes. If we lynch the CL later, technically town can be endgamed by having 2 cultists vs 2 UTs. I think. Actually the setup rules are ambiguous, they say "cult has to reach a majority", not "has to reach parity" which is the usual win condition for scum. I think it still works like that though.

Yea, that's just my wording. Cult wins if they reach parity or have majority.

If you wanna see Scum!Me, look at Newbie 1949. If you wanna know what I know to be Scum!Me, ask.

Might check that later, but i assume that's not a cult game (being a newbie and all), so there may be very different behaviors appearing in here. Also, being aware of -past- selfmeta makes it more NAI than it should.

Post 269 is nice - would you say this is the best that town!you could do in this game? This question is not meant to belittle your play so far, just asking if you are sticking to what you said in the aforementioned post: being the towniest possible to get recruited later.

Yea, more or less. Optimal play dictates I should stick towards the middle to avoid recruitment, but the best play Town!Me can make is to try to get recruited and force the cult into WIFOM if I'm not. If they know there's a rolestopper, (or the chance to be one), they wouldn't want to target me since I'm the most likely to be rolestopped. If they know there's a JK in the setup, then we get into the WIFOM of "Is JK on me?"

[Hectic]

@Nolynch are you willing to vote poyzin with me? I really don't like those kind of prodges

VOTE: poyzin

Nolly, why did you sheep Farkran in the above post considering-

Farkran:I have already played with him one game under my alt and I am very paranoid of him. Too towny to be town. I need to check out scum games of his before making a read here.

you hold this opinion of him in your reads list?

And what was your read on Poyzin at that point?

[Farkran]

@Farkran; why did you suggest poyzin CL and Korina cultist?

Because of ... everything i said in my ISO about poyzin, and post 258 for korina. I don't think korina is the CL, i agree that CL wouldn't be this flashy. But any other cultist can take a hit, and even if that particular post is just a slight, potential scumslip, it would be poor play to ignore such things. It's not like scum would come out and say "oh right, i scumslipped, i need to die now /vote myself". It's not like i scumlocked them either, i just feel i am onto something.

Remind me what your reasons are for Poyzin because I ISO’d you and the main reasons I found were about inactivity and prodging. Why Poyzin instead of Sala? I also don’t understand your tunnel on them at all; i’m paranoid you’re targeting them in bad faith. Agree about Korina not being CL though

He's not scumlocked, but he's my best guess for CL right now (wrt poyzin). I want more content, i want him to produce stuff that he can be accountable for. Because right now he is the slot that i'd feel most comfortable with associating with a prominent scum role, given the mindsed and content displayed. He fits with a lowkey profile which is dodging responsibilities, going for consensus reads rather than producing his own, not trying to engage the gamestate, you know the drill. This is scum by the manual, and until proven wrong i think he's my best guess for CL in this game.

I wouldn't townlock anyone right now either, but i am much more willing to work with people like you, hectic and probably bingle for now. I would like to include korina, because i liked his early content, but honestly the experience level displayed and that specific post made me too much paranoid to trust his slot at the moment, so i will wait until i get more information. Shos feels a bit better than he did early in the game.

Wrt sala, i am... concerned, yes, but not particularly in a scummy way. I have meta with him, he was scum and i was town - in this game he's doing the exact opposite of what he was doing in the other. I am waiting for a couple specific events to happen before i try to push there, but right now i don't think he is cult leader.

[Kanna]

Hectic's #302 is a good find. Also I forgot to comment on Farkran accusing Korina of scumslipping. First reaction is he didn't but will check sometime later.

[Kanna]

@Farkran;what do you think about No Lynch?

[shos]

Alright I got cut off midday and will continue now

[Hectic]

Shos feels a bit better than he did early in the game.

DISAGREE

Sh0s feels off to me for several reasons. His early play was having a strong opinion and debating about something stupid, which gives him townie points in theory for genuinity, but is something which is much easier to fake for scum. Plus, I just don't understand the reasoning he was going about here:

I think it’s vaguely for the best if UTs claim D1. If we have a UT massclaim our EV shoots way up and there’s nothing scum can do to stop it. OTOH, if scum claims UT they will be found by any other or claim and both cultists have to claim.

VOTE: Bingle
I think this is the first talk worthy thing in the game. Such claim would really be stupid for cult as that would put them in a 1v1 with a real UT. It makes all sorts of sense that if scum ever come to claim, they'll claim VT or a PR to draw PRs out or something. Therefore, this post is, most likely, coming from a cultist which is not the cult leader.

Seems shallow to scumread Bangle based on him openly suggesting what he things is an anti-town strategy as a cultist. Scum very rarely push what they know is an anti-town strat with the intention of pushing it through in my experience.
He improved a little after that as he started throwing some reads out.

Question
If we have col A or C, then basically we just have to Lynch the leader and town can't lose?

But then this post comes along. If you lynch cult leader day 1, you win in any of the setups. Because all PRs claim the next day. If there's a counterclaim, you lynch all PRs and win. If there's no counterclaim, you lynch everyone but the PRs and win. The Cop + VT setup is fine as well, even if there's only 1 PR, since that PR checks people each night. The Jailkeeper + VT setup is the only one that isn't an autowin I think

Reason I'm saying all this is that it shows sh0s didn't put a lot of thought into the question he was asking. Recently, I've been noticing these kinda helpful looking questions thrown out a lot more often from scum than town, while not attempting to think/answer it themselves.

@Pedit: Thoughts, sh0s?

[shos]

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

There's no harm in waiting a day before doing so for the reasons I've already given.

Don't you think that massclaiming UTs on day 2 allows cult to counterclaim better? Suppose we do not claim d1, but instead we claim d2 (to reiterate: this is only about UTs, no other role should claim).

Player A: i am UT!
Player B: i am UT!
Player C: i am UT!
Player D: i am UT!

By day 2, cult will LIKELY have 3 members to work with, two of which are expendable. What do we do with those 4 claims? By doing that during day 1, we can control the damage done by wifom CCs. Either we do that d1, or we don't do that at all, imo. I support doing it though.

pedit: well, nevermind

This post kinda gives me the hibbie-jibbies
Usually such possible abuse of the game is thought out by scum, and this kinda looks like scum are trying to let scum know what should be done in that case. Although, it DOES discuss a D2 action so they WILL have time to talk about it N1. I dunno, this setup spec seems far less interesting and might be a way to kill off time and look like you're putting effort into the game.

Let's leave falkran as nullscum for the while

[shos]

What I say is that clearly cult will not CC, and are far more likely to fakeclaim VT when they dakeclaim, so this just helps scum.
Worst case scenario is even supremely worse, where there is no UT and scum know this and THEY claim UT thus "conftowning" themselves until PRs die in the game when the setup becomes clearer.

I agree that cult will clearly not CC UT. However, the 2/6 chance for an unsuccessful recruit of a UT does not outweigh the 2/9 chance for scum autowin if they hit the

sole town PR.

Further, an unsuccessful recruit actually doesn't help us much, since we don't know it happened until late game. Town almost certainly loses unless we hit cult leader early.

Is this a scumslip, showing knowledge that we are in C1/C2???

[shos]

ehhh nvm next post explains.

Setup spec by itself usually comes from town, debating on which is the best strategy is almost always TvT.

I disagree.
Mechanical discussions are the very easy for scum to engage with, while not moving the game forward. Mechanical talk is always NAI.

++1

I like nolynch

[shos]

OK the whole Korina parade on p6 looks to me a lot like korina's town play when she was TOWN in the cult game we played a few weeks ago

[shos]

Finally some normal time at home. I love the weekend. holy fukshit.

I'm gonna go ahead and call the not korina alt town based on the long series of posts in page 6. First townread is first

yupyupyup

[shos]

Also I meta’d Farkran and tbf they’ve done early readlists as town and scum so it’s probably NAI.

links pleaaaaaz

[shos]

I missed shos. I know.
@shos, are you doing/ was doing a gambit you might want to reveal?

Did you return to do me since then? if not how bout you do me now?
also not sure if you mean you picked up on the fake L-1 ages ago but id hardly call that a gambit

[shos]

Is salamence actually in this game btw?

[shos]

VOTE: no lynch

This is fucking scum, and I want it dead. He has one town read, one town lean, one null and everyone else is scum. I want this slot dead now.

do you have more so quickly? lol plz don't lynch my townread?

[shos]

{shos} - scum lean

Korina hun
please do tell me why don't you love me
spread the love babe
spread the love

[Farkran]

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

There's no harm in waiting a day before doing so for the reasons I've already given.

Don't you think that massclaiming UTs on day 2 allows cult to counterclaim better? Suppose we do not claim d1, but instead we claim d2 (to reiterate: this is only about UTs, no other role should claim).

Player A: i am UT!
Player B: i am UT!
Player C: i am UT!
Player D: i am UT!

By day 2, cult will LIKELY have 3 members to work with, two of which are expendable. What do we do with those 4 claims? By doing that during day 1, we can control the damage done by wifom CCs. Either we do that d1, or we don't do that at all, imo. I support doing it though.

pedit: well, nevermind

This post kinda gives me the hibbie-jibbies
Usually such possible abuse of the game is thought out by scum, and

this kinda looks like scum are trying to let scum know what should be done in that case

. Although, it DOES discuss a D2 action so they WILL have time to talk about it N1. I dunno, this setup spec seems far less interesting and might be a way to kill off time and look like you're putting effort into the game.

Let's leave falkran as nullscum for the while

Why do you do this when i just started feeling better about you?

Cult has daytalk. How does scum!farkran "try to let scum know what should be done" IN THE MAIN THREAD?

I mean... you seem to be forcing yourself to push on me by casting shade at every opportunity you get. This is just... a very bad, forced, reachy push on my slot.

Poyzin/shos? Would make sense with 284. Would make sense that cultist!shos tries mislynch me since i claimed VT and i would be a bad recruit for them.

[shos]

VOTE: Sh0s

SH0S

lol guys was I a wagon without noticing? I mean I heard Korina talk about lynching me, then bingle, now hectic (although iirc he called me town) x_X what's with all the hate

[shos]

I must be a really bad cult leader
everyone talks about me

Should have expected Korina to be here lawl

VOTE: nolynch L-1

My activity levels are absolutely horrendous right now, and I'm sure you all are rather upset with me not having much content to read me off of. Yet, there is a lot that I have missed. I definitely cannot catch up tonight, so expect my thoughts tomorrow. I know that Hectic asked what I thought of that quote, so I will at least be doing this tonight to make up for my terribly mediocre support.

I really don't see this post as an issue. Putting a player a L-1 this early in the game is certainly risky, but I don't believe that a cultist would put themselves on the spot by bringing a wagon to one away from hammer, which would certainly attract attention from the rest of town, which is something that shouldn't be wanted for any member of the cult on the first day, whether they were a leader or no. With that being said, this is definitely not the full story, and I apologize for not being able to deliver a more thorough response at this time.

even when this wasn't even L-1
I don't even recall what I posted until now that brings me to such spotlights repeatedly
can anyone tell me

[shos]

I missed shos. I know.
@shos, are you doing/

was doing a gambit you might want to reveal?

What does this mean?

I admitted that I didn't publish my read on shos yet and asked him a question.

very funny. But you know what I meant was what gave you the idea shos was gambiting?/why did you say this?

He doublevoted me. I was never L-1. If he did it intentionally, that would be a very towny behaviour, because he could catch cult member that way (I would get "hmmered") or find out that either a cult memebr is alrady on my wagoon or I am Cult Leader (I wasn't hammered).
He probably didn't do it intentionally, but since I wasn't put to L-1 and am town, one of people who voted me {Kanna, Not A Korina Alt, shos} is likely a cult memeber. Furthermore, I don't think that Cult Leader would want to be with the same wagoon as his Cult Member early game, which means that all of them are likely not Cult Leader.
Together with my reads, I believe that Cult Leader is in {Salamance, Poyzin, (Bingle)}.

I did do it on purpose. I do it aplenty actually, you can see my meta. I'm pretty sure I've been doing that even before my 18-months-long break from mafia.

[shos]

3) That is the only read I have thus far stated, yes. I don’t like talking about null reads, and the best argument I’ve read about a lynch candidate is Korina’s points on ”no łynch”.

honestly? the ONLY READ over 10 pages is a townread on hot-headed Korina? No opinions on anyone else at all?

[Farkran]

@mod: i didn't notice salamence has been way over his prod timer. Activity overview says more than 3 days.

[shos]

@shos; what made you change your mind in the 5mins between #282 and #283?

it appears one of my posts didn't go through. There should have been something in 282.5 bout a scumslip but nvm