White Flag - TM2020

[T-Bone]

northsidegal has been lynched...

Spoiler: Role Reveal

Mafia Goon

Welcome, northsidegal!

You are a

Mafia Goon

.

You and your partners, [REDACTED] share a factional kill each night. You must choose which of you will commit the kill. You also share a factional Private Thread (PT), located [REDACTED], where you may talk at any time.

You win when the Town has been eliminated, and nothing can prevent this.

The game thread is here.

Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment or by posting in your PT.

Night will last until (expired on 2020-01-19 12:00:00)

[T-Bone]

KittyMo has been killed!!!

Spoiler: Role Reveal

Vanilla Townie

Welcome, KittyMo!

You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You have no special abilities.

You win when the Mafia has been reduced to one member.

The game thread is here.

Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment.

[T-Bone]

Vote Count

Not Voting - 11

(Auro, BBMolla, Cephrir, CheekyTeeky, Dannflor, Dongempire, Dunnstral, Espeonage, Formerfish, gobbledygook, Hopkirk)

Activity Check - Start of Day

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

[Donempire]

Buongiorno

[Cephrir]

I think I'm wrong somewhere in my town reads though and it's probably in the [hop, kittymo, cephrir] grouping

cheeky, Dunn, ceph still core town

Kitty too

What's with this?

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

[Cephrir]

Eh, maybe that's a bad take.

[Dunnstral]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

This was a really bad defense of NSG

[gobbledygook]

To take a page from NSG and RC, kill the non-bussers first

VOTE: Cheeky

[Dannflor]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

[gobbledygook]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

This was a really bad defense of NSG

I agree with that. My team and I think that it is likely NSG's mafia buddies were probably trying to create as much smoke as possible so that she wouldn't flip

[Dannflor]

What's with this?

I was talking to Tom about the FF/NSG dichotomy when I was freaking out and having some doubts and he had kinda paranoia'd KittyMo. Later I reaffirmed my town reads and especially with Hopkirk's progression, I figured he was the town read I was wrong on, if I was wrong on one.

NSG can easily flip scum but that's still 40%ish at best. FF has scum equity with Gobble/Dunn but feels town taken on his own.

Hop 'hoppop' hop

Particularly I didn't like this post that claimed NSG could easily flip scum when Hopkirk did his best to stay on a vanity wagon EoD.

[Dannflor]

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

I'm a little embarrassed by my indecisiveness yesterday. However, from a completely non-neutral perspective, I *feel* like it's fairly obvious I didn't know NSG's alignment.

[Dunnstral]

Oh yeah, that reminds me that Hopkirk is scummy too

I haven't even remotely caught up and won't until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

VOTE: Dunn

Explain why you vote me here if you aren't caught up

You shouldn't have read anything about me saying not to lynch FF at this point - what is your vote based off of

[Cephrir]

I think I'm wrong somewhere in my town reads though and it's probably in the [hop, kittymo, cephrir] grouping

cheeky, Dunn, ceph still core town

Kitty too

What's with this?

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

After thinking about this in the shower I totally disagree with myself. Anyone could see bbmolla's posts were likely to get him out of the noose.

[gobbledygook]

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

I'm a little embarrassed by my indecisiveness yesterday. However, from a completely non-neutral perspective, I *feel* like it's fairly obvious I didn't know NSG's alignment.

My team and I do not agree with this

[Cephrir]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

I thought of this, but on the other hand, throwing down some distancing with a post that was fairly likely to get her lynched may not be bad play.

[Donempire]

Hopkirks play seems like it took a lazy approach. Ibdont think hes scum, i think he just didnt care about the gane at some point.

I can see an espe/cheeky pairing, but it seems too easy.

[Cephrir]

Yeah formers scum.

I have never believed his posts were anything outstanding, but thats not the smoking gun for me. The last 3 posts he made seem like its coming from frustrated scum that got caught due to luck, and his desperation to switch to a NSG wagon shows that also.

Gobble wagon seems rushed. I think people caved in too early to formers offensive.

I especially didnt like that nsg was MIA and yet former still said she was making it a 1v1, shes not even here

I will also say that i dont like how cheeky attacked dunn out of thin air - it seems like it was meant as a way to lull the nonattentive to thinking dunn was doing something malicious against her when he wasnt. As far as i see its not like she scumreads him either so wtf?

Sorry FF if you're town, but I'd rather take NSG later into the game than you as it stands.

I'd hang him just for this comment.

Thanks for letting me know that a fucking empty space is better than having me around Dann.

With all due respect, i think its more than that.

What you're doing at this point is pretty much whataboutism and is bordering on desperation to get ANYONE lynched except yourself. No one said we cant lynch you today and nsg tomorrowz which is my preferred gamestate as of now.
You havent given reasons for yourself or against nsg, so all of your posts help no one. Thats the bigger reason.

Thanks cap.
VOTE: Formerfish

Nsg/cheeky/maybe hop

Thats where my mind is at. I dont think i will be considering anyone else to lynch tomorrow but i do want to make a case on esp come tomorrow.

I like these wagons what course should I be taking?

Former seems like its a done deal at this pointz i doubt trying to flip everyone on nsg at the last moment will work, and im pretty sure on former (im also convinced on nsg but in a decision of one or the other...)

I like these wagons what course should I be taking?

Former seems like its a done deal at this pointz i doubt trying to flip everyone on nsg at the last moment will work, and im pretty sure on former (im also convinced on nsg but in a decision of one or the other...)

This is a pretty lazy excuse, your vote on nsg would put her to l-1, while your vote on FF ties the wagons at l-2, so "flipping everyone" isn't something that needs to happen if you wanted to

I'll be willing to flip on nsg if formers wagon stops traction, but its not because i scumread nsg over him but rather to just get a lynch in. I'm still in full support of a former hanging.

Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think

NSGs not here to flood an entire page with insults, guess thats who were lynching today then

Thats the worst compromise for me but sure..

VOTE: NSG

I am positive these posts are alignment indicative. Yall should read them.

Prima facia it looks super super bad but maybe too bad to be scum.

[Dannflor]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

I thought of this, but on the other hand, throwing down some distancing with a post that was fairly likely to get her lynched may not be bad play.

I mean yes, but I feel like the distancing would have been stronger? She didn't even express a scum read on him. NSG feels like she's preparing for FF to flip town with the phrasing of that post.

[Donempire]

DAE dong bad?

I say hes bad so you should believe me

[Donempire]

I would vote myself for you pussies but i got a wagon to catch

VOTE: Cheeky

[Cephrir]

I think auro is likely town. He spent so much energy on trying to get ff to paraphrase his team topic, something which if done and done well could have completely blown up the ff wagon.

[Dannflor]

My kill pool is:

[Esp, Dong, Hopkirk]

Probably in that order.

Esp for defending NSG not because he thought she could be town, but because she was a lurker, as seen in posts #663 and #1287.

Dongempire's defense is different, but still very bad if you look at

how many times he individually calls out NSG as scum

, but then never votes her until he's forced to. In post #758, he says the NSG lynch is "fine" and he's "not too thrilled with any of the other wagons." In post #1206, Dong soft defends NSG. In post #1293, Dongempire says his preferred gamestate is lynching FF first and NSG tomorrow, without introducing any reasons why. Obviously, this was also my position for a while, but I think I made it pretty clear why I thought so. In post #1295, Dong puts NSG into his team solve. In post #1396, he says he's convinced on NSG. Duunstral calls Dong out on his excuse for not hanging nsg, and Dongempire claims he doesn't scum read NSG over FF in post #1403. He

never

votes NSG despite repeatedly claiming he was "pretty sure" on her, until he absolutely is forced to in #1460. It looks like he was preparing for her red flip.

With Hopkirk, I especially didn't like this post:

NSG can easily flip scum but that's still 40%ish at best. FF has scum equity with Gobble/Dunn but feels town taken on his own.

Hop 'hoppop' hop

This comes after Hopkirk has been sitting on the NSG wagon for most of the day, yet also after Hopkirk has shifted to first Dunn and then Gobble once the NSG wagon picked up steam. Not being caught up is fine, but this is still a weird progression regardless and the gobble vote is especially bad when he wasn't even a wagon and Hopkirk had *multiple* opportunities to move his vote to one of the wagons.

Still feel like Esp probably? dies first due to the hard defense, but I'm open to discussion on these.

No one else really seems aligned. I still hard town read Dunn. Cephrir didn't really seem like he knew NSG's alignment yesterday. I still hard town read Cheeky. I'm still pretty confident on Auro. BBmolla and FF are probbaly town.

That leaves the above three.

[Dunnstral]

1396 -> 1403 -> 1417 looks pretty bad for you

[Dannflor]

Are they Cheeky votes because he was one of the main proponents of FF?

I can't say I really understand them. I also think Cheeky believing NSG had a good chance of flipping town and being upset about that EoD yesterday read pretty genuine.