White Flag - TM2020

[Hopkirk]

jesus christ I had to read your last sentence four times to understand what the hell you were saying lmfao

My phone likes to switch words into the wrong ones and I'm typing fast because it's past kidnight, I'm getting up at six, haven't had much sleep this week due to work stuff, and have an away job next week that's going to involve a lot of travel and likely 12 hour days. This probably isn't something I'm going to read my phonephone posts throughout for. I'm not going back to correct spelling and read for sense.

[Hopkirk]

I haven't even remotely caught up and won't until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

VOTE: Dunn

Imagine if it's just Dunn/Gobble/Fish.

(Currently at work and bathroom posting as i realized the submit button only disappears if I quote stuff or add formatting).

Hop 'hopping' Hops

VOTE: gobble

Hop 'hophop' hop

What sparked this progression Hopkirk?

Why did you vote Dunn and Gobble when you did without catching up?

Thinking about Gobble and the wagon on NSG and not knowing where the scum actually would be in that scenario unless they were doing literally nothing the entire day.

I assumed I had time to vote around a bit and intended to follow up after I caught up.

[Hopkirk]

I don't understand how 'making the dumbest possible decisions as scum that have no benefits, draw attention to you, and likely get you killled are considered the peak of cmscumhunting/acumtells.

[Dannflor]

Yeah, I mean you could say the same thing about people scum reading me for wagon hopping the other night. But it has to be considered and looked into anyway.

I think you're a lot townier than either Dong or Esp. But I do think your progression is *possible* to come from scum who was behind and was hoping NSG escaped lynching.

Where are your reads about at now? Still Dunn and Gobble as suspects?

[Dannflor]

also I think Espeonage's misrepresentation of my stances is scummy and a desperate attempt to take advantage of the paranoia around me.

I made it clear multiple times that I thought Espeonage's stances on NSG were scummy regardless of NSG's alignment. Either this is an intentional misrep or Espeonage hasn't been reading my posts very closely and thinks this is the best looking push for him.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah it'd be great if you could clear up your EOD actions hop. My main issue is you voting gobble when you said FF & Dunn were scum yet FF was the most likely to be lynched.

If you could go into your reads on those 3 slots at the point of your gobble vote that would help a lot.

I'm not really buying the "I thought I had time to skittle" thing as you didn't really do or say anything when you came back and said "I'm not catching up then" after the NSG hammer. I had given intent on FF and it was pretty clear the end was coming quick. So I think you were well aware you didn't have time to skittle and your obvious vote should have been FF if you really scumread him or were town going for an info lynch. Instead it looked like you were unsure what to do and so you threw out reads and stayed off the main wagons.

[CheekyTeeky]

also I think Espeonage's misrepresentation of my stances is scummy and a desperate attempt to take advantage of the paranoia around me.

I don't think he sounds desperate. His progressions make sense I just think he's wrong.

[Espeonage]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

yeah basically that ^

I think there's almost always 1 scum between NSG and FF and I've felt that way since NSG came in and voted FF.

I don't want to lynch NSG for what are mostly NAI things.

I still think FF is scummy. And I don't think people should be swayed by AtE that comes from a place that is NAI. FF would be frustrated here as either alignment I can guarantee that.

Uhhh, no misrep from me found. :/

[Espeonage]

Like that was the entirety of my reasoning. Like I defended NSG because I understood what she was saying even though in hindsight it was a ruse.

I also expressed some small issues with FF which was pre the end of day situation.

[Espeonage]

So yeah Dann trying to Lynch me for points he agreed with smells scummy to me.

[Dannflor]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

yeah basically that ^

I think there's almost always 1 scum between NSG and FF and I've felt that way since NSG came in and voted FF.

I don't want to lynch NSG for what are mostly NAI things.

I still think FF is scummy. And I don't think people should be swayed by AtE that comes from a place that is NAI. FF would be frustrated here as either alignment I can guarantee that.

Uhhh, no misrep from me found. :/

I forgot about this. I was thinking of your logic early D1 and how I found straight up saying "lynching lurkers bad" in response to the attacks on NSG as not very productive and LAMIST.

Okay yeah, I did agree with you there. And it's possible I am conf-biasing with my reading of your case on me. To rephrase, my problem with your play is exactly your exact logic in the post you quoted, but how you initially framed it and defended NSG early D1 when the first wagon built on her.

If I flip town, what do your reads look like? Aside from me who are your top suspects?

[Dannflor]

play is exactly your exact logic in the post you quoted

is not exactly*

[Espeonage]

Enlighten me to my own thoughts oh Omniscient one.

[Dannflor]

huh

[Dannflor]

I am against Lynching NSG on principle of lurkers being terrible day 1 lynches.

Ok cool, if there actually any reason why NSG has higher scum equity than other people?

These were the two posts I initially disliked/disagreed-with for full transparency. Because the reasons for her wagon were down to her scum meta being pretty blatantly lurking out. It wasn't until later that internet connection excuses came into the mix and I had reason to doubt the reasons for scum!NSG were more NAI than I thought.

It felt like you were just ignoring a plausible case on NSG under the guise of "it's never good to lynch lurkers D1." And I did agree with that later when my read of NSG had shifted closer to null due to her coming back.

[Espeonage]

663 is the tl;dr of 1287. Like they say the exact same thing. One just provides the background thinking. idk how you can agree with one and disagree with the other. Unless you were doing to argue that FF was lurking.

I don't think NSG had a higher scum equity than any other lurk slot. Like even post flip I would argue there was at no point a plausible case on her. The case was she has a reputation of being good and is lurking so Lynch her. That isn't a plausible case regardless of if it is on scum or not. It doesn't matter the player or the game.

[Dannflor]

663 is the tl;dr of 1287. Like they say the exact same thing. One just provides the background thinking. idk how you can agree with one and disagree with the other. Unless you were doing to argue that FF was lurking.

My reads had changed by 1287. I am always in support of lynching lurkers if they have genuine scum equity. Around 1287, I'd talked myself into believing that most of NSG's actions this game were NAI due to IRL circumstances. To me, lynching a scummy FF who would also give information was better than lynching a null NSG for little information. The point of disagreement comes when I was actually scum reading NSG, and there was a plausible case against her.

I don't think NSG had a higher scum equity than any other lurk slot. Like even post flip I would argue there was at no point a plausible case on her. The case was she has a reputation of being good and is lurking so Lynch her. That isn't a plausible case regardless of if it is on scum or not. It doesn't matter the player or the game.

This is quite a bit of a simplification? The case was not that she was good and not doing anything. The case was that she was good as town and has a very specific meta of doing nothing as scum. That in itself raises her scum equity over standard lurk slots.

[Espeonage]

Ok so to get back to the point I was making originally, your opinion of my stance changes on how much you agree with me? So if you agree with me I'm town and if you disagree with me I am scum?

Because that seems very wrong.

The point of your response was to argue that I didn't have a single logical explanation for voting FF over NSG which I have pointed out and then responded to your counterpoint, and now you are arguing that they are different bc you had a read change between them??!??

And no it isn't an oversimplification. There is going to be a game where a meta tell is wrong bc if not it'd be a trust tell. So no, there was nothing VALID that gave her any scum equity over any other lurker.

[Dannflor]

The point of your response was to argue that I didn't have a single logical explanation for voting FF over NSG

I don't think I ever said this? Please quote it if I did.

Look, I understand where you're coming from with lurkers being bad lynches. I don't think I ever said that logic specifically is incorrect. However, I disagreed with the way you used it to defend NSG originally because yes! a scum tell that usually fits her scum meta does raise her scum equity! even if it's wrong sometimes. You not entertaining that point and using the often repeated logic of needing a high information lynch D1 felt disingenuous to me.

I agreed later because I'd felt my reasons for NSG scum had lessened and FF had become a much spicier lynch, but I digress. This feels like a semantics or language issue we're having because I thought I was always very clear it was the way you originally used that defense I took issue with. We were wagoning NSG and you popped in with "lurkers are bad lynches," which is not bad logic in theory, but felt like a LAMISTY attempt to discredit the wagon on her without even considering the valid point raised against her.

I don't think I ever said you never had a reason to vote FF over NSG. That would in fact be very hypocritical. My issue with you has to do with the fact that you did (and are still) dismissing the issues with NSG as nothing, even though they were valid reasons to scum read her. Like your point about meta tells sometimes being different otherwise they would be a trust tell is silly because the logical conclusion to that as a dismissal is that we just shouldn't use meta at all.

You were treating NSG like any other lurker and boiling it down to "lurking lynches bad." Even though the case was deeper than that. There was a reason NSG got wagoned over another lurker like Dong.

[Dannflor]

If I flip town, what do your reads look like? Aside from me who are your top suspects?

[Dannflor]

eddie has commented that your attitude of hating this game/playerlist/life/universe all of D1 makes a lot more sense if you rolled scum with NSG

[T-Bone]

Vote Count

Hopkirk - 3

(BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Cephrir)

Espeonage - 1

(Dannflor)

CheekyTeeky - 1

(gobbledygook)

Cephrir - 1

(Dongempire)

Dannflor - 1

(Espeonage)

Not Voting - 11

(Auro, Dunnstral, Formerfish, Hopkirk)

Activity Check - Start of Day

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

[Dannflor]

I think Hopkirk is all around much townier than either Dongempire or Espeonage. Like I can *see* it, so I'm not gonna go off at his wagon like I did with Auro, but he's definitely not my first choice today.

[Auro]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

Unless NSG didn't want us to sheep the FF vote, which we would've if she actually cased. Instead, lay a naked vote, and have the third scum try to distract to an entirely new wagon...
Like Dunn->Gobble

Sorry for the tinfoil lol

[Auro]

Dong feels town because of his attacks D2, there's no agenda - will check if he's the kinda scum player who plans their attacks. Also, I think KittyMo NK would've been from someone familiar with her.