White Flag - TM2020

[BBmolla]

We have like 4 lynches to win yes?

[CheekyTeeky]

Yep. Why?

[gobbledygook]

Cheeky we need more pops cats in this thread. Make it happen

[CheekyTeeky]

What?

[T-Bone]

Vote Count

Espeonage - 4

(Dannflor, CheekyTeeky, Dunnstral, Auro)

Hopkirk - 2

(BBMolla, Cephrir)

CheekyTeeky - 1

(Dongempire)

Dannflor - 1

(Espeonage)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

Not Voting - 2

(Formerfish, Hopkirk)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Espy

L-1

[Donempire]

Still 11 days, i dont like that l1 vote

[Espeonage]

I'll be annoyed. But I get where BB is coming from tbh. There's a bunch of free lynches.

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

I'll think about it

[Espeonage]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm..... Had a look and I think there's two important points to look at from the end of the day.

1. No one had any point had a real opportunity to hammer until Dong did it.
2. The flash wagon on BB got to L-2 and just ran out of steam quite abruptly. There needed to be a Lynch so I don't think any votes after that get any town crew EXCEPT that dong specifically thought NSG was going to flip town and that wording seems to genuine to be played up.
3. Dann was the momentum jump, however BB wasn't going to happen at that point, and FF only had two votes on him left. Also the first time Dann voted NSG in the end of day shenanigans.
3. Ceph put to l-1. Potential cred snap up, so unsure here. I think Dann comes off worse as Ceph was vote parked on NSG while Dann stayed off it and was commenting from the side.

All other votes were earlier composition so I would think they have all been added to the hive mind and don't come in to specific scrutiny here.

[Espeonage]

@Dong: As much as I hate to ask, I can't see it and don't think there is likely any credence to it, but one of your teammates said they saw Ceph/NSG relationals.

I'd like to confirm I can soft Conf town ceph and noticed your point there. Would be nice to be able to throw it away.

[BBmolla]

I'll be annoyed. But I get where BB is coming from tbh. There's a bunch of free lynches.

Yeah. I guess for me it’s like we can literally eliminate a couple of these scumreads instead of speculating a whole fuck ton.

But I probably am jumping the gun, the momentum in this game has just come to a close to me.

UNVOTE:

I mostly agree with the common scumreads, so it just feels like people are arguing between lynching my scumread #1 vs #2

But I guess it makes most sense to use the bigger townreads while still alive

[BBmolla]

Why are we not lynching hopkirk thoigh I am a bit confused on tgat

[gobbledygook]

I feel like rushing through this day isn’t in our best interest

[Cephrir]

Why are we not lynching hopkirk thoigh I am a bit confused on tgat

:shrug:

I'm still voting there.

[Espeonage]

haha I managed to say two points, write numbers 1 through 3, and had 4 points total.

I'm good at this.

[Cephrir]

Several little thoughts.

If Espe were scum, would he have posted his non-game frustration in the scum thread?
If Espe were scum, does he respond to a L-1 wagon with a single super chill post and then take a little time to actually do things?

[Espeonage]

I can tell you the answer to number 1 is no, and the answer to the second one is idk.

[Espeonage]

If I was scum I would have been playing Hangman in the scum thread to calm down.

[Espeonage]

However that's just want I do in all PTs I am in lol.

[CheekyTeeky]

Hopkirk is an interesting read - Pops pointed out that NSG's team would not have given up but rather have planned an optimal route with a bus scenario for NSG that intentionally lacks associatives and gives towncred to her buddies to make it to end game. Based on Hopkirk's behaviour around NSG it is not certain if his lack of vote and early D2 frustration line up with NSG's scumteam's plan. First, he was off the wagon giving himself little towncred whereas if he was mad that NSG was planning on lurking the day out (as referenced in his D2 opening posts) then he probably would have jumped on her wagon early to get her out of the game with as little associatives as possible. Therefore, Hopkirk is not likely scum with NSG.

Both Espeon and Dong are also unlikely to be SvS together with NSG as the scumteam would have weighed the strengths and weaknesses of the team prior to deciding to go with the NSG bus if suspected route. Espeon and Dong have not played strongly enough combined for NSG's team to be confident in leaving the game to them. It's possible one or the other is scum but unlikely both if any.

Pops has left me a big post in our PT for me to rephrase regarding Espeon today so I'll push that out next.

[Espeonage]

Toilet thought.

Scum either bussed or didn't bus. However, if they did bus then they are both in at least decent town standing.

If they didn't bus then they are both off the wagon.

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

[Espeonage]

haha, didn't read the pedit.

[Espeonage]

If I take Ceph and myself off my Lynch pool and probs cheeky bc I like that town read. My effective Lynch pool is Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF.

[CheekyTeeky]

Pops Readslist:

Dannflor

- Dannflor's interactions with nsg D1 do not seem SvS. Dann reads towny in isolation, although he would have been a player NSG's team would believe could reliably sweep after a bus.

CT

- The towniest town that ever towned. Unfortunately some people do not appreciate the value of having someone as great as the Cheeky and it's possible some of the townreads here are TMI.

Dunnstral

- Never lynch this obviously lock town who is second in town prowess only to Cheeky. If Cheeky uses her magic to lynch him I will sanction her.

Formerfish

- FF doesn't have to be town because of the scumflip, nsg effectively rolled jester so any associatives are meaningless. The nsg vote on FF could have been designed to discredit the wagoners when her flip falsely cleared FF as a counter scumflip. Overall its been read into too heavily as it is. Nsg lurking when FF gained traction doesn't implicate FF as scum since she had little time IRL iirc and again doesn't mean anything. FF reads as too bad to be town when usually he's quite impressive as town (Cheeky is better though). FF is also a good candidate for a scum sweep team with NSG.

Auro

- I can see why people are townreading Auro but hesitant on him not hammering FF meaning he's town because I'm reluctant to townlock FF. There's some good stuff here though.

BBMolla

- All I remember is a flashwagon, BB yelling and the wagon disintegrating. Insert meme with the little anime guy with glasses and the butterfly and have "is this a playstyle?" text. Not sorted.

Cephrir

- An nsgteam is more than able to have a trolly critic of nsg lurking out the game which is where Ceph comes in. Although I read him as independently towny, I don't like how people are writing off his push on nsg as coming from town. I could imagine Cephrir being ok with nsg lurking while also condemning it morally, I could see myself doing it too, not criticising Cephrir's character here. If this is the strat then Ceph needs to continue being strong town to keep neck integrity, the NK which was a universal townread does not clear him in any way.

Dongempire

- scummy posts and an "off" day 1. I think it's kinda likely these posts are just dongempire posts as someone put it, rather than scummy.
Of my -too weak to be scum with nsg scum bus theory- Dongempire has decentish play with a few solvey posts that should also place them out of the D2 lynchlist. As mentioned by Ceph he lacks charisma and is unlikely to remain undetected due to the mislynch bait aura they give off which is a playstyle thing ime. It's "too easy" as Auro said. Unless Dong scumclaims, I wouldn't lynch.

Espeonage

- no meta here but strong D1 imo. I think this would fill nsg's team strat fine. His interactions with Dunnstral D2 look scummy and like he's just emulated his mentality from town!Espeonage; Like his policy on meta not taking into account game context which just fell flat and felt empty. If not meta then what? He says: "NSG was as likely to flip town as any other slot because meta was invalid." She obviously didn't post the same as every other slot so even if Espe doesn't believe in meta, he can believe in discriminating between towny or scummy play. Also his suggestion that his organisation of all the lurkers is a flat graph is intentionally ignorant and appears to be an unlikely perspective for town when posting "the opposite of your crap meta read is a nullread" when I believe town!Espeonage would be more likely to post "the opposite of your crap meta read is the generic read I developed on the slot, here it is:".
I was kinda TRing him when talking to the Cheeky but that's largely evaporated on further inspection.

gobbledygook

- possible scum. He's not engaged enough to be readable. I don't have a good reason yet to TR here and feel generally meh.

Hopkirk

- Bleeds honesty in his D2 disgust that isn't articularly AI. Seeing as his team cannot win now due to modkill I don't think he'd use moral indignation just to win this game. This was discussed earlier. Assuming bussing was discussed Espeonage fits a lot better as someone who was instructed to bus. It's possible Hopkirk refused to bus nsg out of spite but I'd expect more interactions from them both. Contrary to Ceph, Hopkirk did not care about how he looked D2. Ceph seemed focussed on clearing himself in relation to nsg whereas Hop was just disgusted.


tl;dr lynch Espeonage.