Mini Normal 2115: Fin

[Chara]

Yes you need to elaborate, because this looks like you’re just making an easy jump onto my wagon.

Ah, but then it would be too soon...

were you going to elaborate on your Alch vote today?

[Ame]

Chara I don't disbelieve you about the memory issues, but I can't see it pertaining to the scale of your 476. Insomnia's play post-slip was consistent with his play pre-slip. He had begun working on PoE and connections to Aaron a couple of pages before and the intensity of his game solving is consistent with his play throughout the game. You stated that you forgot that isomnia was the one who initiated the pressure on Aaron, but I had brought this to your attention a couple of times before, and you knew I was looking for your opinion on it, so I think it ought to have been especially salient in your mind:

Spoiler:

I actually changed my mind on Egix and think he's town. It's hard for me to fathom that he'd actively defend villager profii here against my and chara's votes knowing that at some point in the game, he'd have to explain that defence, especially because it's his first form of contribution and it stands out.

what i meant by my townread.

Ame: i know i need to pay more attention to Frost, but i TR insomnia so i'm giving it some weight.
as for Looker, just an assumption that might be wrong, that's on me.

Ame: i know i need to pay more attention to Frost, but i TR insomnia so i'm giving it some weight.

What do you think about each point specifically (as outlined by Luca here):

I’m having a change of heart on Frost,

(1)

based on his reaction to Insomnia’s pressure which comes across as appeasement.

(2)

I also agree that his Insomnia SR seemed a bit faked in that he doesn’t really do anything with it and just coasts on it for a while until he is pressured into jumping off.

(3)

And thirdly I agree that it looks as though he had been positioning himself to vote Profii for some time before he did so.

VOTE: Frost

@insomnia I'll provide more once I get responses from these last two posts.

really hoping i have time tonight to go through this on my laptop. normally mobile suffices but Ame's style is pushing me in the direction of more focused analysis. not a bad thing, except that it forces me not to be lazy. i haven't forgotten questions directed at me.

@chara I meant you, I was just hesitant to use 'it'. i don't think it's likely you're scum with Aaron, particularly for the post i found telling of his alignment (288). Unlikely scumate would interject I think.

ah, i see. glad i asked then. i'll still answer as soon as i'm able.

and you can use 'they' if you don't like 'it'. :>

In the first quote you even stated that you were giving weight to the Aaron push because of your insomnia TR.

Also (and this also goes into why I think you're a high-level player) there's a number of responses you've given throughout the game indicating that you've been paying attention on a level deep enough to recall particular information. For example, the examples you gave about Looker wearing her heart on her sleeve. And so I'm not sure I can take it that it had slipped that one of your strongest town reads was the one responsible for the Aaron push, especially when they spent a page or two going back and forth.

[Chara]

so you believe me about the memory issues, but... you don't believe me about the memory issues? it being salient because i was focused on it earlier doesn't mean anything to later. my 414 happened 7 hours before my next stream of posts (i just checked.).

and as for Looker, you had asked about her directly and asked for my thoughts. it was incredibly easy to look at the post of mine you were talking about, look at Looker's post, and recall my thoughts.

i have issues with short term memory and trouble focusing. reminders serve me well when remembering things, and for Looker this was easy. when i started posting about and to insomnia after Frost's slip, it was without checking my ISO or going back enough to be reminded of insomnia's role in the lynch. as i spoke to him it was easy enough to be reminded.

[Chara]

I still feel safe with alch, he's not towning it up.

i have some experience with Alch, but not enough to know what to expect from him.

what do you think of the timing of his vote on Frost?

[Wimpy]

but the fact you're not town reading Macabre...

Nobody should

[Ame]

i'm thinking more about the assertion that i'm high-level and capable of putting myself into a town thought process.

i don't know how what's actually occurred in this game leads to that conclusion. town thought process, sure, though Ame's case also relies on me then

not

doing that and slipping into a scum thought process when deciding to discredit insomnia.

just... being called high-level scum has happened to me before. it's just normally it happens when we are in lategame and i've been a consensus TR for a while and players are wondering if i'm the deep scum.
it doesn't normally happen after the frankly embarrassing mess that was my calling insomnia scum.

Ha a number of your posts have stricken me as coming from someone who thinks a step ahead and has a strong theory of mind. Some examples off the top of my head: your note on Looker's play, your interpretation of Egix here, your question to me here, and even the type of sarcasm used in your RVS vote (which btw I suspect was a way to lighten up the context of your v/la scumates read by putting it in the light of a joke).

Regarding you slipping into a scum thought process, even the most brilliant of scum players have to make a play at some point of the game, and that's where they show. In this case, I think looking ahead worked against you, but not because it was a mistake to call insomnia scum. If things had played out, and insomnia's plan was carried through, that 'mistake' would have turned in your favor. I think that perhaps you just may not have anticipated the response I would have.

[Chara]

being intuitive and socially competent + having an eye for detail is not the same thing as being a planner or a mastermind. you are right in that i am the former. but i at least understand your point.

as for the rest, i guess it's fine to think that way. i believe it coming from you with the explanation. it's not how i'm able to play scum, but you're probably still town. if you aren't we're definitely fucked, though. haha.

[Chara]

i'd like a response to 602 as well. going to bed i hope.

[Luca Blight]

It seems silly to conclude that Frost's slip was faked - that would be an objectively awful play from scum. They would have been better off hard-bussing him than just giving the game up prematurely. I also disagree that scum D1 lynches are bad for Town - I can't remember losing many town games where scum has been lynched D1, and the info you get from the early scum flip is valuable as long as you remain level-headed about it.

[Luca Blight]

Let's not get distracted by shiny objects - keep it simple and lynch the confscum. Chara might well be resolved through the night, and if not then there is a full day Tomorrow in which to consider the matter. Imo there is nowhere near enough evidence to warrant lynching them today when we have a literal confscum in our hands.

[Ame]

Objectively awful is always a subjective opinion. Regardless, even if it wasn't intentional, there's no denying that he did not try to salvage the situation and thus likely doesn't have an essential PR. Also Aaron is definitely the shiny object here! If you deny the tantalizing temptation of lynching confscum, you'll increase the odds of winning significantly.

[AaronFrost]

Aaron is definitely the shiny object here!

I might sig this postgame

[Luca Blight]

Objectively awful is always a subjective opinion. Regardless, even if it wasn't intentional, there's no denying that he did not try to salvage the situation and thus likely doesn't have an essential PR. Also Aaron is definitely the shiny object here! If you deny the tantalizing temptation of lynching confscum, you'll increase the odds of winning significantly.

There was no way he was salvaging that, especially when I responded to it in real time meaning he would have had no time to even gather his thoughts.

I disagree that rushing a lynch on someone when that person (or certain others) could be resolved during the night and when confscum exists '

significantly increases

' our odds at winning. It feels like complicating matters for the sake of it - going for the hero shot instead of keeping it simple.

[Ame]

Aaron is definitely the shiny object here!

I might sig this postgame

xD

@Luca, think of it this way: Aaron is an informationless flip, Chara is an informative flip. Having an informative flip increases PR odds of netting scum because of the information it provides and because it reduces the pool of candidates. Why sort Chara out in the night when we can do it now and sort someone else out during the night. Additionally, I think it's likely the scum has already identified likely PRs, so by the time we get to N2 opportunity will likely be diminished.

[Ame]

It's not a hero shot, it's optimal gameplay. It's Monty Hall!

[Luca Blight]

Because there is not enough evidence to warrant lynching Chara here?

While a scum flip would greatly improve our chances, they are statistically more likely to flip town, and any information gained from the wagon would be unreliable in the event of a townflip when it's being promoted as 'for the greater good of the town'. There would be no way of judging if scum had stayed off or hopped on, as it would be a consensus wagon with no competition.

[Chara]

allow me to just... step into Luca's pocket here.

but really, this isn't exactly Monty Hall. it's more like picking a door, hearing a goat bleating on the other side of it, but then deciding you should pick one of the other doors instead.

[Wimpy]

I agree with 613. I mean sure we can play checkers. But I’d rather play chess.

[Luca Blight]

Another point is that the longer Frost is alive, the longer he can give his own input and advice in the scum PT.

I could potentially agree to considering another lynch option, but it's pointless if we just all agree to lynch Chara instead. At least have two or three options so we can evaluate the wagons tomorrow. Maybe Chara, Alchemist and JT, for example. The problem is that time is running out and it would be rushed.

[Wimpy]

Macabre would be a good lynch. Just saying.

[Luca Blight]

Another point: Frost would be the one to make the kill, which could render certain Town PR's futile.

[Ame]

Because there is not enough evidence to warrant lynching Chara here?

While a scum flip would greatly improve our chances, they are statistically more likely to flip town, and any information gained from the wagon would be unreliable in the event of a townflip when it's being promoted as 'for the greater good of the town'. There would be no way of judging if scum had stayed off or hopped on, as it would be a consensus wagon with no competition.

I don't think so. All lynches essentially come down to what a person believes is for the good of the town. I think there's information to be gained here (I've picked up on some things already), but even so you overlooked the mechanical aspects of the strategy.

allow me to just... step into Luca's pocket here.

but really, this isn't exactly Monty Hall. it's more like picking a door, hearing a goat bleating on the other side of it, but then deciding you should pick one of the other doors instead.

Hahaha! It's Monty Hall in that the intuitive choice is the wrong choice.

I agree with 613. I mean sure we can play checkers. But I’d rather play chess.

<3

p-edit: definitely not opposed to everyone making a choice as normal. I think that's brilliant.
p-edit-edit: I'm not sure of all the normal roles. Are the potential roles just tracker and watcher? If so, I still think it's worth the risk.

[Chara]

it's hard to build wagons organically at this stage.

what are your reads on the three players you listed, Luca?

i don't see why it's likely scum have figured out PRs. besides that, Frost could be a scum PR himself. i know you don't think he is, but the fact remains that your purposeful slip theory is an assumption not yet proven, and your idea that scum Frost would fight harder as a PR than as a goon is also.

and: leaving Frost alive gives scum more options at night, even if he is a goon. goons can perform the nightkill.

[Chara]

oh, Luca already said it.
it's really not worth the risk. you make any tracker or watcher useless on n1.
it's also relevant to jailkeepers and roleblockers, who also have a hand in stopping kills at the source.

[AaronFrost]