TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[Chemist1422]

I am 100% sure, yes

well RBed/rolestopped/whatever

[Jingle]

The reason I put VT's last was to check the blind spot of Kerset permanent ascetic. If Kerset was ascetic, going so early in the order would have made it really dicey to claim talisman receipt or not even if he also had a rolecop on my third talisman (or a guess, it's a natural complement to hated). He'd have to be a really ballsy ascetic to guess he got it that early.

I mean... if it's loved, we can check it. We put Kers to dead and check to see if he actually dies.

[hitogoroshi]

I am 100% sure, yes

well RBed/rolestopped/whatever

okay so here is a question to town at large. Chemist claimed no one visited menalque and that he for sure wasn't blocked. So that leaves exactly three worlds, one of which I don't believe:

1.) Menal used Belior Zauto on mastina. But in that case, it seems totally implausible that he falls to pieces with his fakeclaim when he knows it's probably a bluff. In particular, why claim gun when you know mastina isn't a gunsmith? I ascribe like 0 percent change to world 1.
2.) Exactly jjh targeted mastina. This caused her friendly neighborizer to fail. chemist knew that mastina was "lying" but played along to see what would happen, and menal ended up doing a stupendous self own and claiming something that got him caught by chemist even though mastina was actually aliened and her 'guilty' was meaningless.
3.) chemist is just scum who decided to bury his buddy for cred and just plain forgot that he was supposed to have seen mastina

2 has that higher burden of evidence that in theory makes it less plausible, but idk, these two posts seem to support world 2 over 3:

Mastina are you faking this?

If you are I’d advise you confirm that now that Mena has claimed

What was your action last night?

I ascetisised myself, if that’s a word

VOTE: Menalque

I successfully targeted you with an action last night

2045 makes a lot of sense interpreting if chemist knows mastina didn't visit, and 2061 just seems totally nuts as a bury on your scumbuddy. So I'm inclined to say chemist is solid town, but since it DOES require speaking for jjh's action on mastina (otherwise he's 100% lying, no WAY we're in world 1 right?) I wanna shop out to town at large and see what you nerds think. We comfortable assuming jjh targeted mastina? We also have to assume that mastina has no distinguish between failed-by-block and failed-by-target-scum, but that seems to be her PM as written + it's a sensible way to nerf the role in this setup.

sorry will do other roles soonish I just have been hung up on this for a while. I glared at chemists no one visited for a while thinking we might have caught scum and then I saw 2045 in ISO and thought "eh but actually". gosh if it's world 2 that's so fucking funny actually

[Chemist1422]

I actually asked, and unsuccessful loyal targets don't show up to watchers

[hitogoroshi]

wait what that's insane. it's like a pre-block where it doesn't even count as targeted if the target isn't friendly? huh. I guess it's less funny but (even) more plausible then

[ofrhz]

We just need a PoE of three right

[hitogoroshi]

I think so but that is loser talk for children and cowards, papa wants his win today

[Shadoweh]

It says in mastina's role that her role fails if she picks scum, so it makes sense that it wouldn't show up. If the 5 roles are basically clear though that's uh, a game win? I dunno it still doesn't seem right, but Klick was the one I was suspecting so with him being clear... the vig and bp talisman have synergy, chemist being scum would break the laws of physics.. unless ofrhz is ballsy af and claimed the nightkill as a vig it seems like it has to be jingle or kerset from my point of view

[ofrhz]

If all the pr claims are town, then the setup seems pretty townsided unless last scum is a fucking tank

But scum in the pr claims seems even less likely mainly bc I have no idea who it would be

Kerset and klick are town by claims. They can only be scum with chemist in which case the setup becomes too scumsided

Chemist has inno’d two people which doesn’t feel like what last scum would be doing here

Hito scum would mean scum either shot alisae which I refuse to believe or he decided to no kill for teh lulz which is also not what I’d expect from last scum either

[hitogoroshi]

assuming 3 scum even though I still have that like ~5% paranoia 4 theory. Though it's actual more like 1% now that I'm thinking about how rude alien into mastinas role actually is, it's not even close to a cop and we got lucky that menal panicked so much even with flipped alien

Chemist

What's been confirmed:

Since he prompted Kerset to claim first, his N2 track would have been easy to fake. Similarly, his N3 "Klick used a doc" is not really confirmed since he knew Klick was a 2-shot doc who was ordered to use it.

If Chemist is scum:

2061 was a tremendous bury of a buddy.

I have chemist chat open in the post above so not really getting in to this but idk I think at this point I'm happy saying "if 2061 was scum posting we can just lose to it."

Klick

What's been confirmed:

N2 doc not confirmed because it came after mastina's BP claim. (Mastina, why you have to claim it so soon. ;_;) N3 was confirmed a 'protective' action via chemist.

If Klick is scum:

He has some sort of self-bulletproof ability or similar that reads as 'protective' to chemists radar. He ALSO has a power that makes the kill NOT show up on chemists radar when he uses it. I can't gauge the likelihood of this without knowing more exact details about the chemist-dar.

ofrhz:

What's been confirmed:

Nothing. Alisae could have been nk just as easy as vig. It happened after BP claim so she knew there'd be a compelling reason for people assuming no scum kill.

If ofrhz is scum:

She's pretty heads-up, posting 2103 just a half hour after 2101. But if she had a rolecop and knew about my talisman in advance, it's less of an impressive heads up thing because it could have been a plan to execute as soon as she saw the talisman claim.

Kerset:

What's been confirmed:

No action from track D2. Received Loved talisman D3.

If Kerset is scum:

He either no-killed N2 (with no reason to suspect track), he's a limited shot self-ascetic who used it N2 but not N3, or he's some variety of ninja.

Hito:

What's been confirmed:

All three talismans were vended.

If hito is scum:

Scum get access to Hated which allows some pretty gross plays. The N2 kill was either a scum no-kill, a double-stack on Alisae, or I shot mastina knowing it'd fail for WIFOM.

I also have a bit of an addendum theory in that I think the third mafia is kinda likely to be a rolecop. Jingle is correct that the doc would have kept a 1-shot BP alive. But I didn't vend a 1-shot BP; I vended a

night two only BP

. Teammates have raised a point that mastina claiming it so casually kind of implies what it does, so maybe this isn't a rock solid tell - but still, I feel like it's pretty ballsy to shoot someone who said "I got a bulletproof talisman and I was docced", and the most likely reason mastina got shot anyway was someone who knew it was N2 only.

This makes me think Kerset is less likely (if he's scum, the no killed is a lot less likely than the ascetic/ninja theory - but would you really be a ninja rolecop?) and ofrhz is more (the only thing she has going for her is that her vig claim would have been very proactive if she only had the half hour to plan it out).

chemist seems really fuckin solid, and depending on how chemists claim works we might get klick for another nigh-lock. I'm the tier "only scum if I gave up kp, you decide if that's on the table" + I for sure am a talisman vendor so either I have no other powers or I get a real scum helpful power and also these fuckin doodads, Kerset is on the lower tier of "only scum if he gave up kp OR happens to be ninja/ascetic", and ofrhz is "absolutely nothing confirming unless you think ofrhz and her team never think of this play"

Weighing this against the VTs: don't think I want Shadoweh today. Scum-Shadoweh has every incentive to hard defend Bitmap but I don't think by advocating no-lynch instead, that seems really town indicative for me right now. Could be Jingle I guess, but he got pretty lackadaisical AND interested in mechanical solving start of D3, which to me seems like the mark of an earnest townie.

I think my kill order is ofrhz, Kerset, Jingle right now. But also want to see how folks digest this because that could adjust my orientation a lot.

[hitogoroshi]

To be clear, I am mostly looking for alternative perspectives because I'm coming in to this with the bias of "if it turns out that I brought up cohesion tell AGAIN and everyone told me I was being silly AGAIN and it was right AGAIN then I will be so goddamn smug you will be able to see it from space." So maybe I can't evaluate this super-soberly.

[ofrhz]

JOATS and inventors, did you guys all have compulsory, night-specific actions?

Like n1 you *have* to use your watch, n2 you *have* to whatever

[hitogoroshi]

JOATS and inventors, did you guys all have compulsory, night-specific actions?

Like n1 you *have* to use your watch, n2 you *have* to whatever

I got to choose which talisman which night but was compulsory to use one each night. Which I guess means as scum my hated wouldn't 100% break the game, but it'd still be pretty rude

[ofrhz]

What’s kp? Kill power?

[Shadoweh]

Rolecop is a pretty shitty role on its own though. It makes thematic sense for the scumteam to be roleblocker + roleblock/doc immune + track immune/possibly a rolecop? Just glancing at the claims even if one is fake we all agree town seems hella stacked for the last dude to have effectively no role to speak of, right?

I said that Klick was the most likely other person I'd want to push and Dunn said no-lynching was better then accidentally killing the doctor. Which I GUESS is true, the alternative is annoying though. Are you saying the Hated was permenant btw, is the loved perma too? That seems suspiciously unlikely.

[Jingle]

I mean... We absolutely check Kerset for asceticism today, because why wouldn't we?

BP doesn't show up to followers, explicitly. It only sees active use powers. Also, scum doctor for a 1 shot vig is like the stupidest design choice ever.

Ideally the lynch order FMPOV would be literally everyone else. Is there any reason you dropped Shadow from your lynch consideration post hito? Was there a required order for your talismans? Was talisman use compulsive?

VOTE: Kerset

Trying to prove/disprove loved, we should be 4 to lynch and Kerset/Klick/Chem can be trusted not to hammer. The rest of us can go ahead and vote here and then unvote when we know there isn't a fakeclaim of Loved receipt.

[ofrhz]

I guess I’m okay with that

But only if we all vote kerset on a new page to spook him next time he checks the thread

[hitogoroshi]

What’s kp? Kill power?

I think kill...pressure? But tbh I don't know, picked it up from Liars Club. Just as in, if hito is scum 100% there could have been one more dead body and wasn't. Obviously I'm not thinking about it that hard because I am in fact town but it just seemed correct to put my objective evidence alongside everyone elses

Rolecop is a pretty shitty role on its own though. It makes thematic sense for the scumteam to be roleblocker + roleblock/doc immune + track immune/possibly a rolecop? Just glancing at the claims even if one is fake we all agree town seems hella stacked for the last dude to have effectively no role to speak of, right?

I said that Klick was the most likely other person I'd want to push and Dunn said no-lynching was better then accidentally killing the doctor. Which I GUESS is true, the alternative is annoying though. Are you saying the Hated was permenant btw, is the loved perma too? That seems suspiciously unlikely.

I mean thinking more about what roleblock and alien does to mastinas role it seems less impossible now. it has definitive innos but very non-definitive guilties.

No all three talisman are one day/night only. Bitmap outed the Hated was one day which I guess is another tick against "the scum must have had rolecop" - they could have just assumed "as the Hated was one day, so too must the BP be only one night".

Who do you think the mafia is?

I mean... We absolutely check Kerset for asceticism today, because why wouldn't we?

BP doesn't show up to followers, explicitly. It only sees active use powers. Also, scum doctor for a 1 shot vig is like the stupidest design choice ever.

Ideally the lynch order FMPOV would be literally everyone else. Is there any reason you dropped Shadow from your lynch consideration post hito? Was there a required order for your talismans? Was talisman use compulsive?

VOTE: Kerset

Trying to prove/disprove loved, we should be 4 to lynch and Kerset/Klick/Chem can be trusted not to hammer. The rest of us can go ahead and vote here and then unvote when we know there isn't a fakeclaim of Loved receipt.

I guess that's fair, the way I did the claim I think there's like zero chance but why not check the blind spot? I do insist that we trust Kerset specifically with the 'hammer'.

VOTE: Kerset

I guess dropping Shadoweh wasn't really indicative of anything besides 'don't feel like lynching right this second'; obviously plenty of chance to reevaluate. No order but use of any talisman was compulsive.

Putting aside these Kerset votes which are strictly to check Loved, who do you think is the best lynch today?

[Jingle]

I'm not sure, there's reasons to townread everyone tbh.

[Jingle]

Kerset should be off wagon completely.

[Jingle]

Like, Kerset will never self hammer.

Chem/Klick are town and thus won't hammer. That means scum can't hammer.

[Jingle]

The N2 kill was either a scum no-kill, a double-stack on Alisae, or I shot mastina knowing it'd fail for WIFOM.

For completeness, a kill on Kerset also explains the missing N2 kill, but I have no idea why anyone would have shot Kerset at that point.

[ofrhz]

VOTE: Kerset

[Jingle]

Hito, was the bulletproof BP for the next night or BP specifically for N2? It doesn't matter much, but it is an interesting distinction for setup spec.

Chem/Kers, can you confirm that your action order was voluntary? I assume it was, but I just want to make sure.

Flipped

1 Shot Strongman
2 Shot Roleblocker

Alien
1 Shot Friendly Neighbor
2x VT

Proven
Compulsive Inventor (Loved/Hated/N2BP)
Protective (2 Shot Doc?)
Targeting Role (TrackJoat)
Self-Blocking role (CommuteJoat)

Claimed
JOAT (FN/Commute/Visit)
JOAT (Track/Watch/Follow)
N2 Vig

Setup synergy seems to suggest that the JOATs are accurate claiming

Lets look at the setup if all of the PR claims are town.

1 Shot Strongman
2 Shot Roleblocker
???

JOAT (FN/Commute/Visit)
JOAT (Track/Watch/Follow)
N2 Vig
2x Doc
Alien
Loyal Neighborizor
4x VT

Rolecop isn't particularly helpful here, actually. That's a potential 2 clears N1. Doc/Vig/Alien are all antisynergy. Commute/Alien/Neighborizor/Roleblocker are all antisynergy. Scum get pretty much whatever N1 kill they want. Town has a pretty decent shot at just crushing N2 and on though. Using some pretty handwavy math we had a roughly 50% shot of mastina failing to clear a player N1, and she should never have gotten a guilty, period. Similarly, the FN was a similarly complete crapshoot (also, interestingly, not best used N1). That's still an insane amount of town power.

There's no reason for scum to have a protective in addition to a roleblocker if there's only one town shot period, so Klick is fullconftown in my eyes.

Kerset being scum commuter actually strengthens town, I think? I definitely don't think it solves anything. Kerset's actions are definitely the most questionable, but I don't think them being the scum really solves much.

Hito being scum explains mastina dying today at a surface level, but I don't think hitoscum kills mastina there. It puts a spotlight on him as the person who is most likely to know that mastina is vulnerable and there were just safer kills to make. Mastina was fullpocketed and there was an excuse for why she survives, but if he shoots Kers/Klick he can set up Chem/ofhrz/Kers/Klick to be lynchable and I think scum hito realizes that. It also makes complete sense for someone to assume mastina was gambiting with the BP, and I doubt anyone other than me in this list would have thought about the doc/BP interaction keeping the BP shield up on mastina. Fuck, even if I were scum here I probably would have shot mastina to remove the BP shield I thought was there.

Shadoweh/me has to have an insane role to balance this, I think. I can't think of anything that just outright does it. I also don't think Shadoweh plays the end of D1 the way shadoweh did as scum who was watching a policy lynch on the strongman partner. If she's scum here, she really got screwed by the rand.
Chem bussing Mena there is just... Ballsy AF. Maybe I should reread that, but I don't see it coming from scum the way hito presented it.

Ofhrz scumvig might solve the issue with balance? There's an awful lot of town protective power. If ofhrz is a scum vig or a second strongman, she could easily have intended to claim her kill coming into the day on the assumption that town had a shit ton of protective power.

I guess that leaves me at

Jingle/Klick
hito
Chem/Kers
Shadow
ofhrz

with Chem/Kers as reversible depending on whether I put more weight on mechanics or play.

Kers- walk us through your thoughts with your PR as fully as you can.

[Jingle]

Sorry about formatting, that's a pretty ugly brick of text.