Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Not A Korina Alt]

Obvious, we don't lose me until N3.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Cult are capped at 3. They recruit Poyzin today. I'm also assuming we don't lynch the CL/Cult Rolecop at all.
Poyzin, CL, Rolecop makes three cultists.

D3 we have to lynch Poyzin if we don't lynch any cultists at all.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Actually, D2, we need to lynch Poyzin, otherwise we get technically get endgamed D3.

[Not A Korina Alt]

D1: 7v2 -> 5v3
D2: 5v3 -> 4v3
D3: 4v3 -> 3v3 (Cult parity inevitable. Depending on how Kerset resolves it, we either are endgamed D3 or D4.)

[Not A Korina Alt]

Also, if we hit cult in general today, we avoid cult winning for now.
Lynching CL is optimal, but with both PRs outted, lynching any cult is fine.

If we lynch not CL today, you lynch me D3.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Also, if we hit cult in general today, we avoid cult winning for now.
Lynching CL is optimal, but with both PRs outted, lynching any cult is fine.

If we lynch not CL/Town today, you lynch me D3.

ebwop

[Not A Korina Alt]

Obvious, can you provide anything helpful outside of cult is within the SIX PLAYERS WHO ARE NOT YOURSELF OR THE PRS

[ObviousScum]

Obvious, can you provide anything helpful outside of cult is within the SIX PLAYERS WHO ARE NOT YOURSELF OR THE PRS

My last list talked about my three not-cl reads tho?

But yeah I will expand in a few hours

[Farkran]

D4 actually is when I'm irrelevant.
N1: Poyzin targets me, I target shos/BS, Cult recruit Poyzin.
N2: Poyzin culted, I target Poyzin,

cult cannot recruit because they're at 3

N3: I target someone, Cult targets me.

You're useless starting tomorrow.

N1 cult recruits poyzin. CL no longer takes action as they are capped, so your results are only relevant on rolecop (useless, we have already claimed).

The next action the CL takes, assuming we lynch cult, is recruiting you. Even if your investigation targets him, you won't tell us.

[Farkran]

Actually, D2, we need to lynch Poyzin, otherwise we get technically get endgamed D3.

Again, no, unless we also lynch cult today.

Lynching cult when they are 3 just means they replace their third member with another one. The correct play is hard-ignore poyzin starting tomorrow and hard-ignore you as soon as we lynch the rolecop (if we do).

When we lynch the CL, then we autolynch poyzin.

[Bingle]

How do you know shos is a mislynch?

I don't?

I think he is, which should be obvious from, you know, that post you quoted. His reaction to my case on him and retraction felt genuine and his reads feel natural, and I'm townreading him.

If he flipped scum, I would assume you were town because your behavior doesn't make sense as a bus, but between the two of you you S him T makes way more sense to me.

[Farkran]

I mean revealing does guarantee that we lose both PRs back to back n1-n2 so it's still a bit of a ? play but whatever

game's probably make or break by day 3 anyway so it might not really matter though

OS - Korina - poyz

CL and culted inside: [Farkran, BS, Hectic, Bingle, Kanna, shos]

nolynch/bs feels like someone who recognizes this setup is a cult game and spent the beginning screwing around, which feels townie to me

Hectic's early capslock posts don't really feel like a CL trying to slip under the radar

I thought 459 felt like a town reaction to gamestate personally but this read might be only ~so-so, I can revisit this after a review tonight

I was going to finish my thoughts on this list but I ran out of time and I'll be on a diff computer later so I'm just gonna post it before its lost

Implying CL is within {bingle, fark, shos}. What's your up to date analysis on these three?

[Bingle]

I'm starting to get the impression Jangle could be chainsaw defending sh0s after distancing early on. Why'd you spend the first half of the day voting him and asking people "why sh0s?", Bengle?

I didn't ask anyone why shos. I asked "Why not shos", a lot, because if people couldn't justify not voting him but wouldn't vote him anyway that would be more CL indicative. My biggest reservation there IS that no one would answer that question, but that was universal, not individual.

I also notably wasn't voting him because I was running a gambit and didn't actually want him lynched before the gambit had run it's course.

[ObviousScum]

Ehhh fark's probably just town?

bingle/shos?

[Bingle]

I'm going to assume everyone's posted since claims, but if you have a CC do so now.

We actively don't want to lynch the Rolecop at this point, because if we don't Kori is actually an IC. Poyz is leashed to Kori until he gets culted, which will be tonight because Kori can continue to get telling results until he's dead. Neither Kori or Poyz gets lynched before CL, ever. Poyz always gets lynched before Kori. If Poyz flips town, Kori is conftown. Kori only gets useful results tonight or the night immediately following a cultist flip, but he outs immediately if he gets a track result so that it can't be quashed if he gets recruited.

Rolecop is functionally vanilla cultist with both PRs outed, so don't worry about finding them.

Mechanically, scum is in

Farkran
ObviousScum
Blatant Scum
Hectic
Bingle
Kanna
Poyzin
shos

I'm fairly certain that BS and Fark aren't the CL. I'm townreading shos. I don't particularly want OS lynch. Defenses of Kanna don't strike me as natural and mostly seem to be coming from unconfirmed slots, so I'm most sure of that.

VOTE: Kanna

If this flips CL, Fark has huge partner equity. If it doesn't, I'd probably lynch Hectic next.

If you lynch me, you can take my analysis to the bank as conftown, so don't ignore this post after my death. We have 3 lynches (including todays) to hit specifically CL, or we lose.

[ObviousScum]

Think there's more risk that I'm wrong on shos than wrong on bingle

Actually I have a few doubts that shos is scum but I don't know who I'd put below him on my guesses

I think I'm okay with bingle for d1

[Bingle]

D3 we have to lynch Poyzin if we don't lynch any cultists at all.

This is dumb. Lynching not cult leader before cult leader doesn't actually save us any lynches, it just puts off the decision on who to lynch for a day with no additional information and hides who is likely to be cult.

[ObviousScum]

bingle what's your sense of 459? just trying to coast and hoping the "scum" players get lynched without kanna's support or pushing?

[Bingle]

Also, as of tonight I will be WIFI only for a couple weeks, although that doesn't seem likely to effect this game.

[Bingle]

bingle what's your sense of 459? just trying to coast and hoping the "scum" players get lynched without kanna's support or pushing?

It's a pile on to shos based on my fabricated case. It's very much the reason I'm scumreading Kanna.

Shos is town because regardless of the accuracy of "If I were scum I'd have called you out on your lie" he seems to believe that it's true. His "Holy shit, that's an amazing gambit" post was crazy town.

[Bingle]

This is dumb.

I should clarify, this isn't dumb. It's an attempt to win with cult if cult is likely to win anyway.

You NEVER lynch Poyz before CL, because you know he's not a CL.

[ObviousScum]

I think it’s vaguely for the best if UTs claim D1. If we have a UT massclaim our EV shoots way up and there’s nothing scum can do to stop it. OTOH, if scum claims UT they will be found by any other or claim and both cultists have to claim.

Not UT

Therefore, we mass claim not UT on DAY 2 to prevent that, rather than day 1.

In column 3 rows 1 and 2 there is only one PR. If the sole PR is recruited, then cult can literally have that PR and the CL claim UT and town autoloses if they trust it. Therefore, any UT claim after D1 without specifically a roleblocker flip is untrustworthy.

Additionally, we should probably hypoclaim JK targets at daystart.

Bingle I think my main problem with you is that all this shit looks like stuff you came up with to make it seem like you didn't know there were 0 UTs and JKs in the setup

if scum have rolecop then you would have KNOWN there were no UTs and maybe have had more reason to start saying random shit about them? Also I still see no reason to think that the EV shoots up for town by having a UT claim?

idk this just feels weird and very not-town to me dude

[Bingle]

I don't have the time to do the math and show the work for you atm, but a brief meta dive of me will reveal that I always setup spec as accurately as possible as either alignment and it's something I'm well known for. I waxed poetic on the why in the post game of mhsmith's Police Academy, a game town won because scum me forced the optimal strat and then got fucked by a combination of lurker partners, Ankamius and really bad variance despite being a universal townread for the majority of the game.

Anyone with a passing familiarity to me should be able to corroborate, including Hectic and Kori in this game.

[Bingle]

@Bingle why did *you* not came up with that? I mean, you have a reputation of a player who is heavily focused on mechanics.

Or, you know, this post in this game.

[ObviousScum]

yeah but that doesn't mean that you wouldn't choose to focus on that particular line of setup spec then because you thought it'd make you look townie

I'm not saying you exactly thought it was wrong, I'm saying you focused on things that would make it seem like you don't know which town powers were possible