Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

Kanna · Post Post #725 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:02 am

Also that’s exactly what I though, Farkran

Kanna · Post Post #726 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:02 am

@Poyzin; is it just me or did your tone change? Also what is your progression wrt to me?

Blatant Scum · Post Post #727 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:18 am

In post 723, Farkran wrote:Catching up... what the hell happened to this game while i was at work?

Shos claimed FN.
Poy claimed rolestopper.

Blatant Scum · Post Post #728 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:19 am

Actually, the order was the other way.

Farkran · Post Post #729 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:55 am

In post 643, shos wrote:
In post 557, Poyzin wrote:I’m the Town Rolestopper and I was trying to not attract too much attention. That didn’t work out well.
This is a false claim, I officially CC this
VOTE: Poyzin

Uh... i don't think i believe this counterclaim to be true. Korina claimed tracker and nobody else said anything until you pop up and claim FN, right after Bingle seems to be today's lynch? What are the chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and only korina steps up to CONFIRM it rather than CC him.

I'll elaborate: if poyzin claim was false, the rest of the town still contains 2 PR. 8 people could step up and counterclaim him by being Jailkeeper, Friendly Neighbor or Rolestopper. Instead, everyone except shos and BS posted itt with korina confirming poyzin role and nothing else. The chances of shos being sincere are extremely low, or poyzin has been extremely lucky.

ObviousScum · Post Post #730 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:02 am

Hmmm

slightly leaning poyz being the cult rn

Like hec and kanna for town

ObviousScum · Post Post #731 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:06 am

If sho was cult wouldn't he claim jk over fn? Or even rs?

Farkran · Post Post #732 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:06 am

In post 644, shos wrote:
In post 561, Farkran wrote: Adjusting my lynchpool to {bingle > shos > BS = korina} in that specific order

VOTE: bingle
I know you are scumreading me and I am scumreading you and stuff, but have you actually *READ* the thing that bingle did trying to sort me? If you did, could you please summarize it for me, ya know, just to show? and then explain how the fuck do you think bingle is still
town
?

Is this a panicslip or?

Besides, even if it wasn't a panicslip, i don't understand why town!you would be so strong on believing bingle is town. I, for instance, would believe that jingle scumrange is huge after such a play. At the very least he has proven himself as a good liar, because the most prominent thing that his gambit demonstrated is that people would believe a very simple and obvious lie as long as there is no reason to doubt it. And, as a result, you conveniently stopped scumreading him.

ObviousScum · Post Post #733 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:10 am

Meh

VOTE: fark

ObviousScum · Post Post #734 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:13 am

I might have accidentally found town in bangle but idk this game is confusing lol

Farkran · Post Post #735 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:14 am

In post 655, Hectic wrote:
Sh0s is not the CL, no reason for him to CC someone as CL while Bingle was the lynch today. Bingle as the CL and sh0s as cultist just went up massively. Sh0s CCing to get himself/Poyzin lynched instead of Bingle could be a last ditch effort to save his CL.

This is the absolute truth of that matter.

In post 655, Hectic wrote:If sh0s speaks the truth, Poyzin+Farkran is also a possibility given how Poyzin gave Farkran so much towncred when he claimed.

Technically, yes. If shos is sincere and poyzin is lying though, there are a lot of people to cross-examine, starting with kanna. I really don't think poyzin is the liar here though, which also makes town!kanna more plausible.

Farkran · Post Post #736 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:34 am

In post 680, Not A Korina Alt wrote:We have a confirmed scum in {shos, poyzin}. We also have a confirmed town in that.
I am confirmed tracker, and it's impossible for me to not be tracker. Shos CC'd Poyzin, not me. Everyone has more or less posted since I've claimed Tracker. The chance to CC that has passed; therefore, I am confirmed tracker.

The setup is either B1 or B3.

Pedit: Hectic, let's do this: Lynch shos, I check Bingle.

Uhm... this might make sense, or maybe not. I'll publicly run some math to see if i get to something useful and you can make a sanity check.

A) we lynch shos, flips town. Poyzin is cult. Korina gets culted, his results are useless, we are left with 3 cultists being: 1 hidden, 1 conf!cult which we don't know if CL or rolecop, and 1 cult treestump. Chances for Bingle to be a CL decrease greatly. Tomorrow we likely lynch poyzin on the offchance he is CL - if he isn't, we enter d3 4v3 lylo with: 1 hidden CL, 1 hidden cultist, 1 cult treestump. Not a very good scenario.

B) we lynch shos, flips cult. Poyzin is a town rolestopper who will get culted but can save Korina. In this case, Korina gets exactly ONE useful investigation before being culted n2. D2 we have 1 hidden CL and 1 cult treestump. We should never lynch the treestump, so we will just aim at the hidden CL again. It's better than case A, but still not optimal play.

I think lynching shos is inefficient and we should still aim for the CL today, which is either Poyzin or Bingle.

Farkran · Post Post #737 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:38 am

In post 684, Blatant Scum wrote:shos - Neighbor x poy - Rolestopper ~ they are very likely not CL
Not Korina - Tracker

Shos didn't hammer Bingle while in L-1 and CCed with Bingle being L-1.

In post 686, Blatant Scum wrote:
In post 589, Bingle wrote:I'm going to assume everyone's posted since claims, but if you have a CC do so now.

...yeah.

I mean, CL!poyzin would need to claim if he is being wagoned, but he wasn't even L-1 when he did, and the chances that within 6 people who posted after his claim there is only one CONFIRM instead of two possible CCs, compared to shos who steps up after Bingle gets at L-1 are just abysmal.

Blatant Scum · Post Post #738 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:41 am

In post 729, Farkran wrote:
In post 643, shos wrote:
In post 557, Poyzin wrote:I’m the Town Rolestopper and I was trying to not attract too much attention. That didn’t work out well.
This is a false claim, I officially CC this
VOTE: Poyzin
Uh... i don't think i believe this counterclaim to be true. Korina claimed tracker and nobody else said anything until you pop up and claim FN, right after Bingle seems to be today's lynch? What are the chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and only korina steps up to CONFIRM it rather than CC him.

I'll elaborate: if poyzin claim was false, the rest of the town still contains 2 PR. 8 people could step up and counterclaim him by being Jailkeeper, Friendly Neighbor or Rolestopper. Instead, everyone except shos and BS posted itt with korina confirming poyzin role and nothing else. The chances of shos being sincere are extremely low, or poyzin has been extremely lucky.

I don't know. I usually don't CC claims when I am VT.

Not A Korina Alt · Post Post #739 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:52 am

Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

Farkran · Post Post #740 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:54 am

In post 722, Blatant Scum wrote:VOTE: Kanna
Won't be here around DL so I will leave her as a potential wagon.
I think Bingle is town here. I am not sure since I have never played scum against him, but enough to consider wagoning someone else.
Don't lynch shos nor poy today.
Korina track whoever you think is CL.

Uhm... why doesn't cult!shos hammer bingle in this scenario?

And if you assume shos is town -therefore poyzin is scum- why isn't poyzin CL? A wagoned CL still needs to claim, having his partner claim won't get him anywhere.

Not A Korina Alt · Post Post #741 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:54 am

If he was, then I feel like shos is arguably the better lynch here.
If he wasn't I feel like poyzin is the better lynch simply because I don't remember there being any particular pressure to lynch them at that point. Sure, if we were at ~24hrs till deadline, and he was about to be lynched if he didn't do anything, it seems marginally more likely that would be Rolestopper!Poyzin claiming because cultist getting lynched doesn't hurt cult that much, not to mention, I'd be the most likely recruit either way.

Farkran · Post Post #742 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:56 am

In post 739, Not A Korina Alt wrote:Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

No, L-2 from Farkran, Bingle, BS.

Not A Korina Alt · Post Post #743 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:57 am

Hang on, let me find out how long until deadline we had when poyzin claimed.

Farkran · Post Post #744 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:58 am

By the way, @everyone who thinks poyzin is the likely liar here

Could you explain to me the sheer chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and out of 2 potential counterclaims in 6 people, no one steps up to CC him and instead gets a confirm, then SUDDENLY A CC POPS UP WHEN BINGLE IS AT L-1?

Farkran · Post Post #745 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:00 am

In post 744, Farkran wrote:By the way, @everyone who thinks poyzin is the likely liar here

Could you explain to me the sheer chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and out of 2 potential counterclaims in 6 people, no one steps up to CC him and instead gets a confirm, then SUDDENLY A CC POPS UP WHEN BINGLE IS AT L-1?

Just tell me how likely it is. How fucking lucky would poyzin have been to get
1. A role which would be plausible with korina role
2. 6 people to post itt without anyone counterclaiming
3. A counterclaim popping up ONLY when bingle is at L-1

And compare it to how convenient it is for the bingle/shos team to do that.

Hectic · Post Post #746 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:02 am

That's... a strange vote if I'm being honest.

Farkran: sh0s claimed Freindly neighbour, Korina is mechanically confirmed tracker. One of Poyzin/sh0s is lying. I think Poyzin's a lot more likely to be telling the truth as his rolestopper claim is very risky as scum for reasons I gave earlier. Sh0s CCing as scum likely means he's trying to protect Bangle who was on L-1 at the time. That's the summary and my thoughts on it, mostly.

Hectic · Post Post #747 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:03 am

Oh, there's a page 30.

Hectic · Post Post #748 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:06 am

In post 734, ObviousScum wrote:I might have accidentally found town in bangle but idk this game is confusing lol

Why is Jangle town? You were saying sh0s/Bangle earlier.

Not A Korina Alt · Post Post #749 (ISO) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:08 am

In post 745, Farkran wrote:
In post 744, Farkran wrote:By the way, @everyone who thinks poyzin is the likely liar here

Could you explain to me the sheer chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and out of 2 potential counterclaims in 6 people, no one steps up to CC him and instead gets a confirm, then SUDDENLY A CC POPS UP WHEN BINGLE IS AT L-1?
Just tell me how likely it is. How fucking lucky would poyzin have been to get
1. A role which would be plausible with korina role
2. 6 people to post itt without anyone counterclaiming
3. A counterclaim popping up ONLY when bingle is at L-1

And compare it to how convenient it is for the bingle/shos team to do that.

1) Very likely. I literally crumbed/stated I was going to watch BS. Plus Cult knows it's B-Column, since they have Rolecop.
2) Considering they're aiming for only one person to CC, it's debatable considering they know I won't be CCing it. I'd be confirming it.
3) Shos's activity site-wide has been low, so I'd believe shos only started reading the game again today.