Ok Skitter let me give you a quick case for Town!Shos
1) I really think the teamreads are balance of probabilities town. I don't think Shos is outside of his town range here. This is my weakest reason but I'm going to move onto a more important one.
2)
Consider preferred order something like Tris, Xtoxm, Ari, Ico.
This is, essentially exactly what my PoE is minus her. I said repeatedly during D1 that her reads were fantastic if she's town. I also note that she had the most similar reads to me in Perfect Masquerade and we had the most -clicking- reads wise despite not really like getting along in a broader sense. Her reference to that felt extremely towny at the time and I immediately townlocked it, backed down on it, but went back on it. Like even if you don't agree with all of my reads you must agree that Plum has voted basically all the slots that are likely to be scum; who is she supposed to be scum with? Look at the wagon on her replacement today, there is literally no one opposing it except Saudade and I have a lot more to say about Saudade.
3) I really don't think that Saudade's interaction with the wagon is ever SvS. Why?
a) I really think that if they were SvS he would have at least some sort of coherent read on the counterwagon so that he could justify it after Shos flips. This is especially true given that all indication was that the wagon was going to go on Shos today, not me. He has said essentially nothing but that Shos is town for inscrutable reasons and I think that is more likely to be scum.
b) Just, like, a tonal thing on Saudade is that the way he talks about it isn't SvS. I can't do this justice. Both of these pale in comparison to C), however.
c) Look at the way that Saudade interacted before and after I started going after him instead. Before I went after him he was just shitposting and meming and he wasn't -really- trying to get me lynched. Do you believe that he makes the posts that he did and posts the youtube videos actually trying to get me lynched over Shos? That really wasn't going to happen. However, after I went after him, he got a lot more serious and started to try to make a meaningful case and everything and is actually pushing as opposed to just what Ari described as "meming".
Like I said before, I think that all the evidence in the thread is that Saudade was setting me up to take the fall for the Shos lynch but he didn't want to actually derail the wagon onto me at that point in time. Then when I was no longer pushing something useful to scum he got serious and is actually aiming to have me lynched. If he's scum with Shos, why would he be so low effort about defending him versus when it was his life was at stake when Shos is immediately going after me and he's made no effort to dispel that pairing? Or town? Whereas if he's scum and Shos is town, well, the situation changes and there's a lot of gain to be had from setting up the push on me but not actually preventing Shos from going down.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
