Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[Bingle]

Towncore:

Bingle
shos
Kori

Probs not CL because of the ease with which their wagons popped up:
Blatant
Farkran

Don't want to lynch on angleshooty replacing out of a cult game via lurking implies not cult reasons:
Obv

Poyz, Hectic, Kanna all seem like fine lynches. I'd compromise on any of the three, but atm I actually think I prefer Kanna. Sheeping me onto Shos feels like letting a high charisma player get a mislynch and the blame for said mislynch.

@Farkran: nice misrep.

[Hectic]

@Kanna: Do you still think sh0s is town despite what I said in 660? Who's most likely to be CL for you right now?

[Farkran]

2 am here, i'm going to sleep and i probably won't be around for deadline.

Votes outside of bingle and poyzin are dumb. And honestly votes on poyzin are dumb as well.

pedit #800: poyz is in your lynchpool, true that you were voting kanna, but the main point regarding BS option 1 is that there were no quickhammers to make, therefore townreading shos out of that is a wrong premise.

[Hectic]

Leave your vote on Bangle for now. I'll be around for another couple of hours still.

[Hectic]

@Jingle: No stance on which of Poyzin/Sh0s is lying? And what cult!sh0s' CC would mean for who CL could be?

[popsofctown]

Vote Count 1.10

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Bingle

(3): Farkran, Poyzin, Not A Korina Alt,

Poyzin

(2): shos, Kanna,

Kanna

(2): Bingle, Blatant Scum,

Farkran

(1): ObviousScum,

shos

(0):

Blatant Scum

(0):

ObviousScum

(0):

Hectic

(0):

Not A Korina Alt

(0):

Not Voting

(1): Hectic,

---

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

Hectic and Kanna place votes later on this page, if that's what this space is for.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00).

Mod notes:

Not A Korina Alt has v/la on weekends

Mod notes:

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Less then 24 hours left. Lynches are COMPULSIVE, which means that after (expired on 2020-01-24 12:00:00) person with the highest number of votes will be lynched, even if majority is not achieved.

[Kanna]

@Hectic; wrt to #660, I’m not sure I’m getting the logic there?

I mean, scum always know what column we’re in because they have the scum PR, meaning they knew we were in B from the start. B has 2 PRs in every row so for scum to fake claim, they know they’re CCing someone. Why would they prefer tracker over anything else?

As for the scumteam; taking a step back, my best guess is probably Poyzin/Farkran with Fark CL. Fark’s early TR on me still pings me weirdly + since scum knew they were going to be CC’d, Poyzin doesn’t look as good as he does on the surface

[Kanna]

I can’t with all this WIFOM honestly VOTE: Farkran

[ObviousScum]

The problem with games with cult as the only scum faction is that so many people will play for cult win condition even when they aren't cult.

The setup should probably be adjusted with the addition of a SK in Micro, and/or a mafia faction in larger games. Some calculations, simulations etc should be run before getting to a proper setup, but i think it's fairly evident that even if the setup is balanced in a vacuum, it's wrong that so many people are trying to break it by playing against their current wincon.

Kanna what do you think of farkran's tone in this post?

[Hectic]

@Kanna and anyone else who doesn't understand this:

Alright, I'll try and explain this a little better. Look at the setup table below. Let's assume Poyzin is a cultist here and knows for a fact we're in column B, since either him or his buddy are the rolecop. He knows for a fact that B1, B2, or B3 are the possible setups for this game.
Now, he decides to fakeclaim

Town Rolestopper

, but there is something very risky about this particular claim. If the real setup is Town Jailkeeper + Town Friendly Neighbour (B2), both of those roles can claim and it will be mechanically confirmed that Poyzin is the one lying.
Why? Well, have a look at the table. There is NO Town Rolestopper + Town Jailkeeper setup, nor is there a Town Rolestopper + Town Friendly Neighbour setup. Therefore, Town Rolestopper cannot exist with either of the two town PR's roles, and they will know for a fact that Poyzin's claim is fake, and that they are both town.
Therefore, Poyzin claiming Rolestopper has 1/3 chance of backfiring massively since one of the three possible setups in column B means that he will be found out immediately.
Town Friendly Neighbour or Town Tracker are both much safer claims as a result, as they cannot be proven to be false.

So as long as Poyzin realised this fact, and didn't take a

substantial

risk as scum, his claim is a lot more likely to be the truth.

CultD3 Setup

CultD3 Setup

CultD3:

	A	B	C
Mafia	Cult Roleblocker	Cult Rolecop	Cultist
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Rolestopper	Town Tracker and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker	Town Jailkeeper and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Row 3	Unrecruitable Townie, Unrecruitable Townie	Town Tracker and Town Rolestopper	Unrecruitable Townie, Unrecruitable Townie

The game will be given a setup that incorporates one Cult role from the top of a column, and then two Town roles from a row below the selected Cult role. The remaining six roles will be filled in by one Cult Leader and five Vanilla Townies appropriately, to create a 2 Cult and 7 Town setup.

[Kanna]

@ObvScum; a little off maybe? Contents reads like he should be annoyed but tone is calm? I was going to ask though; who’s playing against their wincon?

@Hectic; ah I see what you mean. That does make sense. If we assume Poyzin is more likely telling the truth though, I can see Bingle/shos based on the cc when Bingle was lynched, but then that seems too easy. What are you thinking?

[ObviousScum]

@ObvScum; a little off maybe? Contents reads like he should be annoyed but tone is calm? I was going to ask though; who’s playing against their wincon?

There's been a few arguments that Korina is playing in a manner that implies he wants to get recruited and win with cult I think. It's crossed my mind but I don't know him well enough to say that he doesn't just have a very direct approach to play I guess idk?

[Hectic]

@Hectic; ah I see what you mean. That does make sense. If we assume Poyzin is more likely telling the truth though, I can see Bingle/shos based on the cc when Bingle was lynched, but then that seems too easy. What are you thinking?

Sometimes the easiest solution is simply the correct one. Yes, I do have other theories for CLs, but Bangle has pretty great odds right now.

VOTE: Jongle
5 and a half hours till deadline. Swing in with that hammer.

[Hectic]

There's been a few arguments that Korina is playing in a manner that implies he wants to get recruited and win with cult I think. It's crossed my mind but I don't know him well enough to say that he doesn't just have a very direct approach to play I guess idk?

Yeah... that's the main reason he wanted to lynch Poyzin, because he becomes cult either way in that scenario. Last time I played a cult game with him, his PT revealed his entire strategy of playing VT revolved around him being recruited and then helping cult win. Funnily enough, he was the hidden unrecruitable VT that game, and the CL's attempt to recruit him on N1 failed.

[popsofctown]

Though somewhat borderline nicknaming, votes for "Jongle" will be treated as votes for Bingle. (At least until Kerset returns and revises policy)

[Hectic]

Jangle was the one modding that game, which is why Korina had the "grudge" policy lynch/vote against him at the start of the game.

Pops is pretty harsh mod when it comes to counting votes, 'I've seen her discount a vote for someone called "Llama" because the second 'L' was actually an uppercase 'I', so I better use Jengle's actual name here.

/s

VOTE: Bingle

Pedit: Ha, called it.

[ObviousScum]

Did somebody say L-1?

[ObviousScum]

Hectic, how do you feel about the fact that we have the power of life and death in our hands

It's plurality lynch, we could literally derail this onto anyone you wanted right now

Two votes is all it would take because 4 becomes lynch at timer

[ObviousScum]

Well except Farkran, unfortunately, 3-3 tied between bingle and farkran goes to bingle I think iirc

[Kanna]

I only had BS’s vote when I claimed. I was at freaking L-4.

Korina I wasn’t even looking for crumbs. I didn’t know you were even crumbing until you said you were. I figured

the tracker

might have but

I couldn’t care less who the tracker was

at that time because I hoped they would claim when I did.

Wait, do anyone think this might be a slip? There’s also a role stopper in A which isn’t with tracker?

[Kanna]

Also I see, but I really disagree Korina’s been anti town to win with the cult. This probably doesn’t matter though.

[Hectic]

Hectic, how do you feel about the fact that we have the power of life and death in our hands

It's plurality lynch, we could literally derail this onto anyone you wanted right now

Two votes is all it would take because 4 becomes lynch at timer

Did somebody say L-1?

Huh, are you who I think you are? Does shooting a traitor ring a bell?

Who do you want to derail this onto lul? I'm going soon.

[Kanna]

No? Ok. Hectic, do you want me to hammer?

[Hectic]

Probably not a slip; he could just mean the other PR role and is simplifying by calling it the tracker now. I'm kinda confident on sh0s being the rolecop in the way he came online, saw my arguments for why he was lying, did a half hearted catchup and then dipped without trying to refute any of them. Think he just knows he's been caught out and isn't trying to defend himself.

Go for the kill I reckon.

[Kanna]

VOTE: Bingle