TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[Jingle]

Actually, if we’re committing to that I think I prefer me -> shadow -> kers as the order, as a play around to ofhrz being an sk and so I don’t have to use as much data. If she is sk, I think kers is probably town by balance so the last scum would have to be in me/Shadoweh.

Also worth noting, if town has the chance to kingmake scum or sk, they should kingmake sk so fewer teams are ahead of them in breakers.

[Chemist1422]

I kinda really doubt SK

Worst case scenario either town can lose by N2 or scum can lose by N1

Which feels kinda unbalanced

[hitogoroshi]

I'm pretty happy with Kerset > Jingle > Shadow as a solve, to be honest.

Talk me down from this one?

What do you think about Kerset's reundo hop? To me, it seems like a significantly less plausible bus than ofrhz's. Ofr clearly used it as a place to sit. But Kerset had his biggest surge as a

reaction

to my Bitmap wagon, arguing that reundo was the one getting away. Reading the 1913 to 1916 sequence just makes it hard for me to think bus.

It's just really hard for me to be excited about Kerset as the first rn.

We have a near guarantee there's no sk, because the scum achieve wincon when all MAARF members are dead and at least one scum is alive. It would have to either be an SK who still counts as a MAARF member for purposes of wincon, or an sk that can simultaneously win with scum. Both those options kinda feel beyond the pale for a game like this.

[Jingle]

Yeah, I don’t think there is an sk. But if we’re going to lynch those three players anyway since we know town has used its prs and the nk is literally “which conftown do i shoot?” the order should be in likelihood to play around the sk first.

[Chemist1422]

If you think that it’s more likely there’s an SK than me being scum go with Jingle’s order

Otherwise go with Klick’s

[Jingle]

If you think that it’s more likely there’s an SK than me being scum go with Jingle’s order

Otherwise go with Klick’s

I don’t see how klicks order plays around you scum.

[Chemist1422]

If you think that it’s more likely there’s an SK than me being scum go with Jingle’s order

Otherwise go with Klick’s

I don’t see how klicks order plays around you scum.

If I’m in an F3 with you or Shadoweh evaluation is necessary

If not I’m probably never the lynch

[Shadoweh]

I almost forgot this was still ongoing. What a blissful moment. >_>
To answer hito both Dunn and Maria have commented they think the setup is too powerful if all the PR's are true.
The worries I have are from how I can see them making sense in the sense of confusing people, like a vig that has 2/3 counters
Kerset's claim is a bit weird in that n1 you become confirmed town and n2 you commute, ideally making it very likely you get a free doc on an innocent. It's not very confusing at all.

[Kerset]

Continuing: Klick is the only his confirmed town. Hito is weaker version of doc, a bit like buffed fruit vendor. Hated and loved are completely useless. Aside from ofrhz, he thinks that the two flipped scum were pretty powerful and that would justify high town power assuming the last scum was some ninja multitasking rolecop. Therefore it would be proper play lynching in the VTs (jingle > shadoweh) if ofrhz flips town. VT claims came after all PR claims and after alisae validated VT existence (locking them out of options to claim without overlapping). In general, he doesn't think chemist bus on menalque holds any water anyways. Menalque was dead the moment he claimed vig, burying him is only for towncred. There's that bit of TMI when he said ker commuted rather than accusing ker of being ascetic. It implies that he knew about kill immunity. Still 1shot vig as unconfirmable claim? Sounds ballsy enough to come from desperate scum in 1v1

To be clear, is Farkran’s POE the same as yours, kerset?

Almost.

[Kerset]

I'm pretty happy with Kerset > Jingle > Shadow as a solve, to be honest.

Tell me about ofrhz.

[Kerset]

Kers, assuming both of us flip town who is your third?

Ofrhz is my first. If we both flip town after that then this game is over.

[Kerset]

We have a near guarantee there's no sk, because the scum achieve wincon when all MAARF members are dead and at least one scum is alive. It would have to either be an SK who still counts as a MAARF member for purposes of wincon, or an sk that can simultaneously win with scum. Both those options kinda feel beyond the pale for a game like this.

"You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one MAARF member alive." (for legal reasons: this is sample pm wincon, so i didn't copy my pm)
If you count SK as MAARF member then we could still say that he counts as "threat to the town". MAARF and town could not be the same entity.
Still i don't think this is a the case.

[Jingle]

Kers, assuming both of us flip town who is your third?

Ofrhz is my first. If we both flip town after that then this game is over.

Ofhrz makes less sense as scum than Hito, we’re not lynching her.

[Jingle]

If I’m in an F3 with you or Shadoweh evaluation is necessary

No it isn’t. We can reasonably assume the nightkills using the ‘clears’ we’re working out right now. None of our prs get more information. This functionally IS the last day of the game, where we pick the people in the POE pool who endgame.

Deviation from that list outside of scum shooting in the people we’d lynch anyway is not acceptable.

The only reason we’d have cause to reevaluate is if town lied about their powers or scum decided to give us free additional mislynches.

[Jingle]

I'm pretty happy with Kerset > Jingle > Shadow as a solve, to be honest.

Tell me about ofrhz.

Actually, I’m going to throw this back at you. Why are you so sure about ofhrz scum?

[Chemist1422]

I mean that works in theory

But if you’re in F3, you should be evaluating everyone who isn’t mechanically confirmed

[Jingle]

Not really?

That’s the logic that leads to hero shooting.

We have the information now that you’d have if it got to F3. You just have to assume the first two lynches are town and you’re literally there.

If you go off script because you didn’t actually get new info and then lose me this game I’m going to be pissed, so do whatever reevaluating you want when there are 4 more town players to provide insight.

[Kerset]

Ofrhz has claim perfectly tailored for scum. Novice explains, why he couldn't shoot on n1. Lack of other bullets means that we can't challenge his claim. During this time we killed two scum players. With last scum left at this early stage the most likely scenario would be that solo tires to make some sort of gamble. There are no rewards for being defeated later on, so scum would only aim for win or lose. He confirmed that there are no vig kills on n1 and n2 so the odds for no vig were high enough to go for it. Perhaps he had shot of redirect to prevent CC, if he did then give me a cookie after this game.
During n2 we knew that mastina is proven town but there was flipped strongman, so some kind of protection was extremely likely. That is kind logic that jingle would never come up with so the options are: double kill, jingle misplay or fake vig kill.
If we drop the idea scum power is redirect (which i don't insist on) and take pure rolecop (which explains mastinas death). N1 target is likely to be mastina. Mena obviously didn't know about masti role, which suggest that his partner was AFK at this time. This also points at ofrhz.
514, 591, 592, 765, 1040, 1227, 1682, 2115, 2322. If you look at ofr progression against bitmap you will see that he always had him low but never sr him. However he was fine with using his teammate reads just for sake of killing alisae (his former townlean). Aside of it bitmap remains as not worth defending.

[Chemist1422]

Not really?

That’s the logic that leads to hero shooting.

We have the information now that you’d have if it got to F3. You just have to assume the first two lynches are town and you’re literally there.

If you go off script because you didn’t actually get new info and then lose me this game I’m going to be pissed, so do whatever reevaluating you want when there are 4 more town players to provide insight.

That literally makes no sense because I’m the only lynchable player outside of the lynch order

[Jingle]

Ofrhz has claim perfectly tailored for scum. Novice explains, why he couldn't shoot on n1. Lack of other bullets means that we can't challenge his claim. During this time we killed two scum players. With last scum left at this early stage the most likely scenario would be that solo tires to make some sort of gamble. There are no rewards for being defeated later on, so scum would only aim for win or lose. He confirmed that there are no vig kills on n1 and n2 so the odds for no vig were high enough to go for it. Perhaps he had shot of redirect to prevent CC, if he did then give me a cookie after this game.
During n2 we knew that mastina is proven town but there was flipped strongman, so some kind of protection was extremely likely. That is kind logic that jingle would never come up with so the options are: double kill, jingle misplay or fake vig kill.
If we drop the idea scum power is redirect (which i don't insist on) and take pure rolecop (which explains mastinas death). N1 target is likely to be mastina. Mena obviously didn't know about masti role, which suggest that his partner was AFK at this time. This also points at ofrhz.
514, 591, 592, 765, 1040, 1227, 1682, 2115, 2322. If you look at ofr progression against bitmap you will see that he always had him low but never sr him. However he was fine with using his teammate reads just for sake of killing alisae (his former townlean). Aside of it bitmap remains as not worth defending.

Mena who knows his scum buddy has a rolecop result doesn’t wait to respond to the guilty? Why?

[Kerset]

bc he posted right before mastina called him out. He had to claim instantly. Do you even look at this game?

[Jingle]

Also, jjh was a flipped protective role, a redirector doesn’t help you to dodge a vig cc when there’s a bunch of mislynches left as last scum, and sheeping nsg is par for the course for just about everyone. Further, saying she’s scum because she listened to someone who turns out to have been town on who to shoot is baffling.

So basically, your case on ofhrz is she gambited (which is a shitty argument, because at best that’s a reason not to townread her and I’ve put forward a crapton of setup spec evidence about why that role makes sense as town in this setup) and she didn’t hard defend bitmap. Please reference the player list for people who didn’t hard defend bitmap, before realizing wking is a scumtell in the first place.

[Jingle]

bc he posted right before mastina called him out. He had to claim instantly. Do you even look at this game?

Sure. And if he had no way of knowing what her role was, panicking and jumping the gun makes sense. If he

knows

he just has to wait to be guaranteed the right answer it doesn’t. At all.

[Jingle]

That literally makes no sense because I’m the only lynchable player outside of the lynch order

Let me put it this way: if you reevaluate in a 3p LYLO of Kers/ofhrz/you, the entire loss will rest solely on your shoulders should Kerset be scum. You would have let LITERALLY EVERY TOWN player down. And you’re outright saying right now that you want to reevaluate and potentially lynch someone all of the flipped town who die from here on agree is unlynchable should it come down to a 3p LYLO.

Do whatever reevaluating you want to do today, because you’ve pretty much guaranteed yourself to be in final 3 with this line of asinine stupid.

[Jingle]

Kerset refusing to acknowledge how completely unlikely this ofhrz gambit is is making me more and more sure kers is scum.