TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

[chennisden]

My vote feels ok

Not wonderful, but it's ok

[DeasVail]

My vote feels ok

Not wonderful, but it's ok

Feel better,

with a vote for Nomnomnom

[Sir Elton Hercules John]

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Spoiler: Unformatted VC

nomnomnom (6): panthaleon, DeasVail, Ankamius, Gammagooey, DEB, Flavor Leaf
Dr Easy Bake (1): Firebringer
DeasVail (3): daveaz, chennisden, Almost50
Firebringer (2): MariaR, nomnomnom

Not Voting (2): kuribo, Espresso Patronum

With 14 alive it's 8 to lynch. Deadline is 2/1 at 9PM EST.

[DeasVail]

I'd prefer a lynch in DV/dave over one in nom/FB for now.

Why?

What were my responses to the wagon against me? I wasn’t even aware that there was a wagon.

That's fair, wagon is way too strong a word for what's essentially a voteless man pushing back against a guy who has a baseless read on him.


Now let me tell you something you might not know since you haven't played with me in so long:

Do you know one of my super secret scum hunting methods? Sit close because I very rarely reveal this one:


I wait for them to accuse me. Oh, you might say that's OMGUS, but Lemme tell you, I've caught dozens of scum for using the same soft-accusation techniques you're using. I've strung up entire teams because they tried to throw subtle shade on me. It's then that I step back, I pay closer attention. I watch every movement, watch for the slightest manipulation. Things I wouldn't notice if they hadn't tried to call me out.


It's the mislynches, you see. I haven't been mislynched in EIGHT YEARS. Scum teams just can't help trying to make a name for themselves. Make the game fun because they know I'm hard to lynch. GreyICE and curiouskarmadog are the only people in my twelve years here to get me lynched as town. Scum don't like to NK me if they can help it because y'all know I tend to derail games by arguing with idiots. My fury leaves towns decimated with the scorch and ruin of the other town players that cross me. And as long as that anger stays directed at town, y'all keep me alive.

But you can't do that forever, you need to line up an endgame, don't you? So you have to throw shade here and there, say things like "oh it's fake rage" or "oh my team thinks he's scum." Maybe by endgame someone will be sick of me and vote with you, and you won't have to NK me. Maybe you can save it for some PR with a good claim.

But that's not going to happen. You're not going to get me mislynched. NOBODY fucking gets me mislynched. Eight years since scum has successfully pushed wagon on me. There will be no glory for you or your scumteam this day, DV.

This is a pattern I've seen more times than I can count in my years on this site. I wanted you to be town! I offered you brotherhood and you slapped it away to try and taste the impossible. For that, DV, I will gladly hang your head on my mantle of fallen scum.

This is lovely and all but I’m town.

Is everyone who ends up expressing suspicion of you scum?

Of course not. Do you have any more of my statements you'd like to try and misrepresent? That's at least twice now that I've had to call you out on that.

I wasn’t misrepresenting you. I was asking a question about your super secret scumhunting method. It sounded highly prone to error and I still don’t really understand it

Further to this, I don’t even really think you’re scum. But your post makes it sound like you were offended that I had the audacity to think you might be scum when you were generously townreading me. And I’m confused because that would imply that anything other than me townreading you would cause you to think I’m scum.

[nomnomnom]

UNVOTE:
There must be scum on my wagon right... Urgh.

[nomnomnom]

I guess I'm consolidating on DV VOTE: DV

[Firebringer]

how did DEB get so many votes earlier and has no votes now?

[Ankamius]

hi I put like 10 seconds of effort into trying to solve the game finally

and I have no interest in a DV lynch today ty

[Ankamius]

effort is ongoing

[Ankamius]

ya nomnomnom is still the best vote here

[Ankamius]

my reads have shifted a bit and I have a new PoE again, but nom is still like

aggressively not town

[Ankamius]

also I think an EP lynch is still a high quality lynch

Deas is a low quality lynch and Firebringer is like... midtier

[Ankamius]

I think I have a grasp on the game finally

just assuming DeasVail was town is enough to have things finally make sense

I've noticed going back that there's a lot of instances where players I have townreads on are towards the front of wagons, and the more loud/aggressive players in the game

and the slots I have no townread or less strong townreads on are those that are saying a whole lot of nothing or just saying words without pushing anything

considering that the gamestate has been stagnating in a lot of instances since the modkill, this makes total sense as a scum strategy, so I think this is a good track to be operating off of

[Ankamius]

notably, here's something I want to propose people think about:

Why is the nomnomnom wagon constantly the same set of players day after day?

even without assuming that my own slot is town, this is severely town indicative in my eyes since this is the type of game where it's remarkably easy to just help momentum swing towards wagons you want while wagons you don't want just stay momentumless

this is because there really is no strong force pushing people to keep to their own conclusions and account for them, so scum really can just hop wherever they want and have no real repercussions for it

this mindset dramatically shifts things and suddenly some slots that I haven't been paying much attention to look scummier than they did before

[Ankamius]

Nonetheless, I am fairly confident in these people being town:

davesaz
chennisden
panthaleon (he didn't respond to my greeting though :'( )
Gammagooey
Almost50

Ankamius and MariaR are almost there for me I think.

That leaves DEB, FL, kuribo, Espresso, Firebringer, nom

I don't want to lynch FL today.

But apart from that I don't have super strong feelings personally.

all of a sudden I really like this reads list

[Ankamius]

like it's not the same townlist as mine

but I really don't think this is how a scum would fake it, Deas is not an idiot and I don't think he'd be playing this game as scum without an idea of how to progress through the game

and this isn't going to do it

[Firebringer]

even without assuming that my own slot is town, this is severely town indicative in my eyes since

that just means its possible mislynch bait and distraction from town

[Ankamius]

it's possible that your reads are literally all incorrect

what does that fucking matter

[Firebringer]

its possible. maybe even probable.

[MariaR]

On one hand I see why nom needs to die, not because I think they're scum, but because everyone else does and if nom keeps on living over and over it'll be hell. This is really fucking annoying for multiple of reasons. Hm, I could just vote DV and get rid of that dumb partner theory going around since I think Nom is town. My team and me disagree on a pretty important read and I don't wanna deal with that at 4:30 am. Don't lynch before I can post again thanks <3

[MariaR]

how did DEB get so many votes earlier and has no votes now?

Because he's scum.

I also love how FL comes in here calls me scum with 1 of DV/deas and then votes nom when a DV wagon exists... Yeah I know how this is gonna go tomorrow

[MariaR]

Like that wagon is awful and no one is gonna listen. Alright I'm sleeping

[Ankamius]

ok I'm going to go a little bit into my theory on the game as a whole here because this is pretty relevant for why nom is just the best lynch today regardless of the read people have on her:

in standard algebra, you specifically try to solve for a variable so that when you put other variables into the equation, you get a certain output back; this requires filling in all other variables for a concrete answer or simplifying the equation as much as possible so it takes the least amount of effort and time to solve for specific variables; [ y = x + 1 ] compared to [ y / 2 = (x + 1) / 2 ], it's easier to calculate the first one compared to the second one because there's less calculations to make.

transferred over to mafia, assuming that the player you're trying to figure out the alignment of is Y and someone else's alignment is X, it's a good stepping stone to figure out X in order to be able to figure out Y; this makes figuring out X more valuable since it directly helps you solve for Y. in the case that there's only two variables, this technically works both ways, but generally in mafia the equivalent equations for solving alignments for players are enormously complex in comparison, so X just becomes significantly more valuable than solving Y since it helps simplify the equation.

now imagine scenarios where X appears so many times in an equation, and that it appears so many times in virtually every single equation. Suddenly solving X simplifies a significant amount of the equations necessary to solve every other alignment, which drastically simplifies the amount of assumptions needed to solve the other equations. The less assumptions needed, the more likely your assumptions are to be correct and the easier it is to backtrack and find the problem when it is wrong.

Now.

nomnomnom and her alignment has been a controversial subject for the entire game.
nomnomnom has been wagoned every single day and has been a vote leader for a significant chunk of the game.
nomnomnom's wagon has been comprised of mostly the same people.

Think of it this way:

1. nomnomnom, if scum, is a scum lynch that will revitalize the game AS WELL AS be a significant source of information to further analyze the game since her alignment flipping removes a lot of assumptions from the game
2. nomnomnom, if town, forces the players that have been pushing for her lynch all game to move on from it, which increases the odds of them giving information that will allow other players to accurately read them in the future
3. regardless of nomnomnom's alignment, virtually every single slot has held a stance on nomnomnom for the entirety of the game that can be analyzed because she has been so controversial for the entire game; but you can only assume what the motivation for those stances are because it can easily switch based on nomnomnom being town, or nomnomnom being scum.
4. nomnomnom is a direct source of tension since she is a very high profile slot in the game, and she's a proxy to tension because the reads on her are so controversial that it's causing a ripple that divides town into two halves

there's really no strong downside to a nomnomnom lynch outside of the idea that a townflip on her means we haven't had a scumflip in 3 days, which might negatively affect morale enough to not revitalize the game like I'm hoping it does. That's a risk I'm willing to take because this exact same risk is significantly amplified in literally any other slot, while it has virtually none of the upsides a nom lynch has.

this game is fucking dead and I really don't think it can be revitalized without removing nom from the game simply because it's causing this many problems in the playerlist.

[Firebringer]

2. nomnomnom, if town, forces the players that have been pushing for her lynch all game to move on from it, which increases the odds of them giving information that will allow other players to accurately read them in the future

r u saying the people pushing nom are suspect or am I misreading or assuming to much here.

[Ankamius]

that's alignment neutral and more designed to appeal to those that don't really have reads on those slots