TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

[EspressoPatronum]

ok I'm going to go a little bit into my theory on the game as a whole here because this is pretty relevant for why nom is just the best lynch today regardless of the read people have on her:

in standard algebra, you specifically try to solve for a variable so that when you put other variables into the equation, you get a certain output back; this requires filling in all other variables for a concrete answer or simplifying the equation as much as possible so it takes the least amount of effort and time to solve for specific variables; [ y = x + 1 ] compared to [ y / 2 = (x + 1) / 2 ], it's easier to calculate the first one compared to the second one because there's less calculations to make.

transferred over to mafia, assuming that the player you're trying to figure out the alignment of is Y and someone else's alignment is X, it's a good stepping stone to figure out X in order to be able to figure out Y; this makes figuring out X more valuable since it directly helps you solve for Y. in the case that there's only two variables, this technically works both ways, but generally in mafia the equivalent equations for solving alignments for players are enormously complex in comparison, so X just becomes significantly more valuable than solving Y since it helps simplify the equation.

now imagine scenarios where X appears so many times in an equation, and that it appears so many times in virtually every single equation. Suddenly solving X simplifies a significant amount of the equations necessary to solve every other alignment, which drastically simplifies the amount of assumptions needed to solve the other equations. The less assumptions needed, the more likely your assumptions are to be correct and the easier it is to backtrack and find the problem when it is wrong.

Now.

nomnomnom and her alignment has been a controversial subject for the entire game.
nomnomnom has been wagoned every single day and has been a vote leader for a significant chunk of the game.
nomnomnom's wagon has been comprised of mostly the same people.

Think of it this way:

1. nomnomnom, if scum, is a scum lynch that will revitalize the game AS WELL AS be a significant source of information to further analyze the game since her alignment flipping removes a lot of assumptions from the game
2. nomnomnom, if town, forces the players that have been pushing for her lynch all game to move on from it, which increases the odds of them giving information that will allow other players to accurately read them in the future
3. regardless of nomnomnom's alignment, virtually every single slot has held a stance on nomnomnom for the entirety of the game that can be analyzed because she has been so controversial for the entire game; but you can only assume what the motivation for those stances are because it can easily switch based on nomnomnom being town, or nomnomnom being scum.
4. nomnomnom is a direct source of tension since she is a very high profile slot in the game, and she's a proxy to tension because the reads on her are so controversial that it's causing a ripple that divides town into two halves

there's really no strong downside to a nomnomnom lynch outside of the idea that a townflip on her means we haven't had a scumflip in 3 days, which might negatively affect morale enough to not revitalize the game like I'm hoping it does. That's a risk I'm willing to take because this exact same risk is significantly amplified in literally any other slot, while it has virtually none of the upsides a nom lynch has.

this game is fucking dead and I really don't think it can be revitalized without removing nom from the game simply because it's causing this many problems in the playerlist.

I like this post. It'd be better if you specifically laid out your nom equations though. I don't trust your motivations, so I'd prefer you lock yourself in to your nom conditionals now. It prevents scum!you from inventing conditionals after you've had a chance to gauge reactions to nom's flip.

Even if you're town, writing out your nom equations would be helpful. It's one thing to say nom is tied to everyone; it's another thing to show it.

Btw if nom is town, then those that had weak scumreads on me early in the game have a lot of scum equity

Because that's two early unpopular townreads I had that turned out to be correct and I could tell something was off about it but didn't have enough to go off of to investigate it better

(Although odds are it would just be EP anyways)

This is a really scummy post. It's like you're prepping your next mislynch for a town nom flip.

Scum!Ank would need to find a new angle to get me back on the table as a mislynch. Fabricating a nom/EP dichotomy is a great way to do that, especially considering several players have started to TR me.

Like I said

Probably just EP

Again, pushing the EP mislynch agenda.

I don't think this game is properly solvable without her flipping sadly

I think DV is disproportionately likely to flip town, DEB is disproportionately likely to flip town, and my other two strong scumreads aren't going to get traction in a gamestate like this

Idk what else to do honestly

A few questions for this:
1. How will nom's flip help you decide on DV?
2. Do you think one of Dave/DV is scum. Why/why not?
3. Why do you think DV is disproportionately likely to flip town?

[EspressoPatronum]

@MariaR you keep asking me questions that I've already addressed. It's starting to feel like you're not even reading my posts.

I don't think your power or LMS suggests an all-town hood. In addition, I think the scenario below is likely:

I think our power and LMS is pretty likely an all town hood. All the powers were going to be outted at one point. Obviously you're going to leash the roleblocker. There's no reason for you to put scum in that hood considering the fact it'd be useless. However, I'm townreading both my hoodmates regardless.

About the 'below outcome' [1]who is likely to be scum in DV/Dave and [2]are you pushing for there lynch rn? [EP's edit - added numbers]

1. DV. I already said I'd vote him over Dave.
2. Not really... which you would know if you were reading my posts. Either you're skipping my posts or you already know the answer to your question. If it's the latter, you're just trying to set up a push on me.

I'd prefer a lynch in DV/dave over one in nom/FB for now.

My team will be catching up on this game over the next few days or so. I'll post a combined readslist after that.

As it stands:
I'd vote nom in the nom/FB pair.

I'd vote DEB in the DEB/Gamma pair.

I'd vote DV in the dave/DV pair.

I think 1 scum is in MariaR/kuribo/panth. I'm leaning MariaR.

I'm also still interested to hear your answer for:

[...]

Why didn't you ask this question to kuribo, dave, or FB when they outed their LMS?

[Ankamius]

Oh good lord

1. I've been pretty transparent that my primary goal is to get the town to get motivated to start putting effort into the game again
2. I would gauge reactions as either alignment, especially in a major shift like this one where significantly more AI content is likely to be given
3. Its self evident that nom is tied to the entire playerlist because she's been the most controversial figure that is still alive; even ignoring it completely is relevant
4. The way players interact with each other over time is too complex to go into detail on at any point, nor is it remotely useful because then the scumteam can easily figure out how to counter it
5. You were never off the table, I simply stopped mentioning you
6. Wtf makes this push on you different from any other time I've pushed you? You never had a reaction like this when I openly scumread you before
7. You've made zero mention of any of my other posts nor tried to sort where this scumread on you came from, why exactly are you jumping to the "chain mislynch" conclusion?

As for questions

1. It won't, I will decide if I need to reevaluate DV if the game stops making sense again
2. I don't even understand what the dichotomy between them even is or why it's a thing I keep seeing pushed, so I have no opinion on that
3. His voting history and how he is reacting to how the gamestate is moving around him

[Ankamius]

As an aside

VOTE: EspressoPatronum

That post wasn't town

[EspressoPatronum]

Oh good lord

1. I've been pretty transparent that my primary goal is to get the town to get motivated to start putting effort into the game again

That's good, but don't think my post called any of this into question.

2. I would gauge reactions as either alignment, especially in a major shift like this one where significantly more AI content is likely to be given

Right, but look at it from an outside perspective. You're setting up conditionals on nom's lynch, but you're not saying what they are.

Telling us the conditionals now doesn't preclude you from changing them and/or evaluating others' reactions. But it does mean that you need to provide a reason for your conditionals and another reason for changing them post flip.

It's admittedly more work for you, but it would severely hinder scum!Ank's ability to manipulate the gamestate after mom's flip.

3. Its self evident that nom is tied to the entire playerlist because she's been the most controversial figure that is still alive; even ignoring it completely is relevant

The interactions may be self evident, but the implications of those interactions are not self evident. I'm asking you to explain the implications pre-flip.

4. The way players interact with each other over time is too complex to go into detail on at any point, nor is it remotely useful because then the scumteam can easily figure out how to counter it

You spent several paragraphs talking about how we can solve better once we know X + nom is X. If it's too complicated for you to explain, then how is it useful to us?

5. You were never off the table, I simply stopped mentioning you

You conveniently stopped mentioning me once TRs on me started coming in. That's why you attaching me to nom out of nowhere is really shady.

6. Wtf makes this push on you different from any other time I've pushed you? You never had a reaction like this when I openly scumread you before

See above. Also, your others SRs of me didn't have as much of a clear agenda.

7. You've made zero mention of any of my other posts nor tried to sort where this scumread on you came from, why exactly are you jumping to the "chain mislynch" conclusion?

This is incorrect. I've engaged with several of your posts. I've even read through some of your past games. I even relaxed my SR on you for a bit following our last interaction.

What made you feel like I haven't engaged with your posts or your read on me?

As for questions

1. It won't, I will decide if I need to reevaluate DV if the game stops making sense again
2. I don't even understand what the dichotomy between them even is or why it's a thing I keep seeing pushed, so I have no opinion on that
3. His voting history and how he is reacting to how the gamestate is moving around him

1. I don't understand how your answer here lines up with your posts about nom's flip helping you solve the game. If it's self-evident that DV had interactions with nom, shouldn't nom's flip impact your DV read?
2. Myself and others have addressed this earlier. I'll quote some posts and/or recap them later.
3. Thanks.

[EspressoPatronum]

As an aside

VOTE: EspressoPatronum

That post wasn't town

And now you're voting me, lol. So much for your message that nom's lynch is crucial for the solve.

[nomnomnom]

@Ank what exactly in EP's post wasn't townie? I want to know as well.

[EspressoPatronum]

I'd prefer a lynch in DV/dave over one in nom/FB for now.

Why?

I want to keep the commuters alive because they have positive synergy with the doctor.

FL and I are less appealing NK options if there's a significant chance one of us gets commuted every night. Scum probably wouldn't risk the WIFOM + would shoot elsewhere.

[Ankamius]

EC thinks my reply was sufficient for the majority of things he wanted to say, but there's a couple more things he wants to point out.

Scum!Ank would need to find a new angle to get me back on the table as a mislynch. Fabricating a nom/EP dichotomy is a great way to do that, especially considering several players have started to TR me.

Again, pushing the EP mislynch agenda.

First, there are no scum flips and no town reads that everybody can agree on because this game has become essentially garbage. You unvoted me and implied a null or townread on your last comments on me, so why exactly would I look to specifically mislynch you here? The PoE is big enough and you aren't a threat to scum!me as town, so this is a just building a narrative. The agenda you're pushing me having is posturing. That's it. It's not even on anything that scum would do, because it is so obvious that it gets scumread when it would be just as easy for me to wait and push with the exact same logic

after

the town!nom flip in that scenario. It's nonsensical.

I don't trust your motivations, so I'd prefer you lock yourself in to your nom conditionals now.

EC wants to highlight this specifically so that everyone else can look at it separately from everything else and realize how dumb this sounds.

[nomnomnom]

I don't think scum!ank radically changes her vote like this. This looks very town from here.

I need to reread EP here. I thought he was town before.

[EspressoPatronum]

EC thinks my reply was sufficient for the majority of things he wanted to say, but there's a couple more things he wants to point out.

Scum!Ank would need to find a new angle to get me back on the table as a mislynch. Fabricating a nom/EP dichotomy is a great way to do that, especially considering several players have started to TR me.

Again, pushing the EP mislynch agenda.

First, there are no scum flips and no town reads that everybody can agree on because this game has become essentially garbage. You unvoted me and implied a null or townread on your last comments on me, so why exactly would I look to specifically mislynch you here? The PoE is big enough and you aren't a threat to scum!me as town, so this is a just building a narrative. The agenda you're pushing me having is posturing. That's it. It's not even on anything that scum would do, because it is so obvious that it gets scumread when it would be just as easy for me to wait and push with the exact same logic

after

the town!nom flip in that scenario. It's nonsensical.

I don't trust your motivations, so I'd prefer you lock yourself in to your nom conditionals now.

EC wants to highlight this specifically so that everyone else can look at it separately from everything else and realize how dumb this sounds.

@Ank did you write 4433 before reading 4429?

Some of the things I mention in there already addressed your points in 4433.

[Ankamius]

I just lost like 6 paragraphs of text

fuck everything

[Ankamius]

the tl;dr is that the response of 1 and 2 are answered by the same thing:

first, idk what you even mean by conditionals now that I actually look at your post again since I didn't even mention that word at all; the best interpretation I can come to is why 1-4 doesn't already answer that question anyway. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail on every single slot and what exactly changes upon either flip because that amount of work for at best half payoff is actually insane when so much of it is dependent on how people react to and adjust themselves based on the flip.

second, you're actually insane if you think I'm looking to 'manipulate the game after a town!nom flip' because the gamestate we have now is hilariously easy to manipulate as scum because town is so disorganized and with so little threat to me that I could just do whatever I want and probably get away with it because the only way town would ever be able to lynch me at all is via a deadline apathy lynch. and look where we are, around three days to deadline and now I'm making my move? by threatening what little credibility I've managed to scrape together to ram through a controversial lynch and setting up a second mislynch alongside it when it's infinitely better to try to do it after the first flip happened??? I'm a lot more meticulous about this shit as scum, I know how to abuse pressure points in towns and this straight up is not a pressure point.

third, my primary goal being to get town to get motivated again literally is the point of a nom lynch and why I've been pushing it. it's literally an appeal to the rest of the playerlist that there's more to analyze from a nom flip because she's been so central to the game that it adds a known factor to a lot of things that have happened in the game. my own personal ideas of what changes based on what nom flips is too dependent on how the playerlist responds and adjusts to the flip for it to even be possible for me to explain it, and even then that's a hell of a rabbit hole to fall into

[Ankamius]

3. the implication is that everybody can get something out of the flip...? which is what I wanted since I want people to be able to get into the game...?

4. because the equations are different to everyone, idk how they look to you or deas or deb or anyone, I only know roughly how they look for me. even then, since I play a lot by intuition, there's a limit to what I know about it.

5. ok, again, why exactly do I specifically need to attach you to nom; I don't have the credibility to force through a nom lynch with being able to explain why basically everybody should want to, what makes you think I have the credibility to set you up for a lynch after her??? you can't even say I'm unaware of it since I've pretty thoroughly proven by now that I am

6. you don't even know where this scumread came from, I thought it was pretty obvious that your name came to me from the town!nom scenario as it happened

7. in that string of posts? you haven't. I explained my general process before going into that big post and made it clear that my reads had changed, including mentioning that slots I had not been considering before were being considered now (you aren't in this list, but considering that you have pointed out that I apparently stopped mentioning you when you started getting townread, it's not exactly weird to assume you are), but you're basing that entire 'agenda' off a single post that I made after all that. I find that quite fascinating.

question 1: see above, my overall goal is to get everyone else more information to solve with since THAT is how I get the information I need to solve with
question 2: ok thank you
question 3: you're welcome

[Ankamius]

@Ank what exactly in EP's post wasn't townie? I want to know as well.

his responses to my posts don't mesh with themselves at all and it's like... busiwork and subtle discredits off essentially nothing

him asking me how you flipping would help me decide on a read on DV is also ??? when I had mentioned in that post that I find him to be significantly more likely to be town than not; the only reason I can think of for why he would single out my read on DV specifically is because it changed from what my read on him was before, but that is such an awkward way of going about sorting it that it's hard to see it as anything other than a discredit trajectory

[kuribo]

I'm also still interested to hear your answer for:

I mean she shares a group with me so she'd already know if I'd asked permission


But also I've never needed anyone's permission to do anything on this site

[Ankamius]

VOTE: nomnomnom

dann smacked my brain

[Ankamius]

I think I'm causing more damage to my team's sanity by switching my vote all the time than they get from reading the thread

[kuribo]

Further to this, I don’t even really think you’re scum. But your post makes it sound like you were offended that I had the audacity to think you might be scum when you were generously townreading me. And I’m confused because that would imply that anything other than me townreading you would cause you to think I’m scum.

It isn't voting me that makes me think someone is scum. It's voting me that brings my attention to them. Sometimes the attention turns up nothing. Sometimes it's a that first bit of firewood on the bonfire. If that added attention is a threat to you, then sorry but that's the breaks.

And yeah my read on someone can change over three game days. It'd be a bit weird for me if they didn't. I don't feel like this is breaking news.

[kuribo]

Still not feeling nom as scum


But I'm just beating off in the corner while everyone else gets to fuck with wild abandon

[nomnomnom]

Ank you had a good moment of sanity for a second there and honestly that sounded pretty town of you so I feel like we can work together if you give me time.

[Gammagooey]

Still want to lynch nom - the self-voting shenanigans don't help and feels like she's just trying out things she might get townread for

I'm faiiirly happy with the wagons being nom/DV/Firebringer/DEB at the end of the day, even if they need to get consolidated a bit more (fairly soonish since deadline is feb 1st) before a lynch can happen

KittyMo read some stuff from pages 87 to around 117 and it wound up being pretty DV-centric since that's where my head was at when she did it - she particularly liked the first sentence DV said below b/c she felt it was too self-righteous for DV to make as scum, she also mentioned some DV meta stuff about how he plays and how having more townreads than scum is out of what she saw from his scum game. I'm still not particularly thrilled with his play this game but yeah that combined with nom's townreads appearing to be as wispy as ghost-farts has been most of my headspace-change in the past few days.

Spoiler: DV post KittyMo liked

VOTE: nomnomnom

Let's do it!

VOTE: nomnomnom

Please don't add more fuel to the fire. I mean, I still somehow have a Town Lean on you (despite the fact having too many TRs is usually a scumtell, because scum struggle to find fake reasons to SR/suspect someone they know is Town, are too afraid to go out of their way and move into the center of the stage, and they want to buddy-buddy with everyone so as not to have as many foes). I say, despite all that I still SOMEHOW lean Town on you, so please don't trigger my paranoia (which usually gets triggered when we run in circles and have no red flips).

Thanks for the advice and I am incredibly grateful that you somehow don’t scumread me, but I would like to vote for who I want to vote for!

Also I will post more about nomnom tonight! A quick look through my (fairly short) ISO will show reasons for me scumreading her previously if anyone requires that. I mean, I could easily fake some reasons if people want me too but actually explaining why I read someone the way I do in a way that makes sense to other people takes more effort. Also reading nom’s reaction to the votes has been useful!

@EP - is there a reason why you're not voting at the moment?

[nomnomnom]

everything I do is scum obviously lol

well if anything, I'm pretty confident that Ank is town with this sudden vote shift so, yeah. There's that at least. Don't go back on Ank.

[chennisden]

you know what the win and this game have in common?

i dont get it

[chennisden]

no really

if ~pool of people that look like they're gonna get lynched~ contains a significant amount of scum

how did ~this general situation~ happen