Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[ObviousScum]

in retrospect town should have CC'd the TPR claims even though it sounds dumb

[ObviousScum]

like right now, poyz/shos is almost 100% 2/2 scum

if we lynch poyz and he flips rolecop and we give CL another recruitment we have no particularly good way of finding the new third

if CL is inside hec/fark and we hit the CL then we actually win the game

and town mislynches are kinda not a huge issue so long as we eventually end up hitting the CL first, and I feel pretty good with CL being inside those 2 at the moment

[ObviousScum]

seriously reread the game from the POV of Hec CL / poyz rolecop and see if it doesn't fit

[ObviousScum]

fark also kinda works but not quite as well

[Farkran]

He was at l-4

there's no real point for him to force himself into a cross claim unless he's outing the power structure of the town

He was L-2 with consensus from korina. Read again 508+515+516+528. He claimed in 557.

[ObviousScum]

okay why does CL set himself up for a 1v1 mechanical cross-claim unless he's playing 4D chess and wants to come off as a jestery culted?

[ObviousScum]

seriously reread the game from the POV of Hec CL / poyz rolecop and see if it doesn't fit

[Farkran]

okay why does CL set himself up for a 1v1 mechanical cross-claim unless he's playing 4D chess and wants to come off as a jestery culted?

You know, the alternative was getting lynched?

Besides, i could get either Hectic/poyz or Fark/poyz as a solve from your POV, but i don't see how you are considering both. I was pushing poyzin, hectic wasn't. You are reading the game inductively, building a solve instead of trying to find it.

[Hectic]

Obum's logic is so far off, it's painful to not say anything lul.

SH0S

[ObviousScum]

then say something

[Hectic]

I don't want to until sh0s claims his target.

[ObviousScum]

shos isn't going to claim his target because he's cult

[ObviousScum]

like why do you still think he has a target to claim? everyone he would have plausibly targeted has already posted

[Farkran]

The only FACTS we have so far are:

1) Korina is a tracker
2) Poyzin and shos were disaligned d1

There is no tracker in column C so we have to be in a column where there are 2 PRs. We have 2 claims and 1 counterclaim, therefore the not-counterclaimed PR must be true (korina), and the other two cannot be BOTH lying, otherwise we're missing a PR.

Out of shos vs poyzin, the only CL that makes logical sense is poyzin, because he was risking the lynch, shos wasn't. Shos is the one who might be playing the jestery CL, or a cultist wifoming to get a lynch on bingle followed by a lynch on poyzin - but if poyzin was sincere, he must have been recruited last night, there's no need to gambit today's lynch when they could just replace him. I am voting poyzin because i am pretty much certain of hitting cult, with a good chance of hitting the CL.

[ObviousScum]

so it kinda looks like you're just stalling and shading in lieu of solving rn

[ObviousScum]

Yes, poyzin is obviously a member of the cult

but if he is NOT CL, then the chance we lose the game dramatically increases if we lynch him

cult probably cannot recruit further right now, so unless you are MUCH more confident he is CL than rolecop, we should not lynch him and try to only hit the slot that we are most confident is CL

[ObviousScum]

864 was at hectic not fark for people not paying much attention

[Hectic]

The point of waiting was to let cult!sh0s fakeclaim his FN onto one of his buddies, so he could get "confirmed", and implicate his buddy too. It's not likely but it's something sh0s could do if he thought we would believe him. You've made it explicitly clear that no one will though so there's no point now.

[ObviousScum]

If he wasn't cult he would have claimed in his first post to confirm korina

[Farkran]

Yes, poyzin is obviously a member of the cult

but if he is NOT CL, then the chance we lose the game dramatically increases if we lynch him

cult probably cannot recruit further right now, so unless you are MUCH more confident he is CL than rolecop, we should not lynch him and try to only hit the slot that we are most confident is CL

Poyzin is the one whom i am most confident on hitting CL. Right now i can only mechanically remove Korina from the CL list, and i think shos has the littlest chance of being CL among all the players list due to how things rolled out d1.

I would think that town!poyzin was the one most likely to make that claim, to be honest, and cult!shos tried to counterclaim it in hope that we would lynch the rolestopper so they could immediately recruit korina - and didn't care if shos was lynched in his stead, because he's no CL. I do not want to overlook the possibility that poyzin is CL, but if i had to look elsewhere i would look for shos' potential partner in d1. My best guess there would be BS.

[Hectic]

So today, we have sh0s and Poyzin as cult. With one other cultist/CL. Two hypothetical scenarios:

DAY 2: We're at 3 cult, 5 town. We mislynch.
DAY 3: We go to 3 cult, 4 town. We have to lynch exactly the CL, or we lose.

DAY 2: We're at 3 cult, 5 town. We lynch a cultist.
DAY 3: We go to 3 cult, 4 town. We have to lynch exactly the CL, or we lose.

So we never lynch Poyzin here, because he was a town rolestopper that was culted, since sh0s is a confirmed cultist who was fakeclaiming.

The question is, why does sh0s fakeclaim Friendly Neighbour there as regular cultist? It just doesn't make any sense to me, since Bongle flipped town. I'm seriously considering if CL!him knows we'll see it as a regular cultist claim, and get passed off a non-CL. If he's a regular cultist, all it does is possibly move the lynch AWAY from Bungle, and ensure we'll never lynch him or take his reads seriously, therefore making it easier for us to lynch the CL.

[Hectic]

Out of shos vs poyzin, the only CL that makes logical sense is poyzin, because he was risking the lynch, shos wasn't. Shos is the one who might be playing the jestery CL, or a cultist wifoming to get a lynch on bingle followed by a lynch on poyzin - but if poyzin was sincere, he must have been recruited last night, there's no need to gambit today's lynch when they could just replace him. I am voting poyzin because i am pretty much certain of hitting cult, with a good chance of hitting the CL.

Poyzin is never the CL here. Because if Poyzin was cult/CL yesterday, he recruits Korina last night. sh0s would be town in this scenario and confirmable, and he would've claimed his target straight away. But he's obviously cult here.

[Farkran]

Out of shos vs poyzin, the only CL that makes logical sense is poyzin, because he was risking the lynch, shos wasn't. Shos is the one who might be playing the jestery CL, or a cultist wifoming to get a lynch on bingle followed by a lynch on poyzin - but if poyzin was sincere, he must have been recruited last night, there's no need to gambit today's lynch when they could just replace him. I am voting poyzin because i am pretty much certain of hitting cult, with a good chance of hitting the CL.

Poyzin is never the CL here. Because if Poyzin was cult/CL yesterday, he recruits Korina last night. sh0s would be town in this scenario and confirmable, and he would've claimed his target straight away. But he's obviously cult here.

That's why i would have liked to hear from korina first. If there is no rolestopper, things are a bit different.

[Hectic]

seriously reread the game from the POV of Hec CL / poyz rolecop and see if it doesn't fit

sh0s is the one lying out of Poyzin/sh0s. Therefore, Poyzin was the town rolestopper yesterday. This isn't role-madness science, Obum.

[Blatant Scum]

I think the CL, which right now I'm inclined to think is Hectic > Fark, started with poy and recruited sho last night

He would recruit Korina, the most dangerous player for cult.