Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)


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Post Post #875 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 460, ObviousScum wrote:PT buddy: BS
d1 Town: Kanna
d1 not CL: Hectic

not likely town: Bingle

Remaining: Farkran, Not A Korina Alt, Poyzin, shos
In post 572, ObviousScum wrote:Hectic's early capslock posts don't really feel like a CL trying to slip under the radar
In post 852, ObviousScum wrote:seriously reread the game from the POV of Hec CL / poyz rolecop and see if it doesn't fit
How do you go from Hectic-not CL to Hectic most likely CL? What changed?
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Post Post #876 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:09 pm

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But what if the cultists didn't recruit Korina yesterday because everyone expected them to and he would be seen as unreliable today anyway?

Also I was theorising Hectic got the FN message but since it seems like he hasn't, then yeah shos/poyzin are both cult. I didn't get it and no one else seems to have gotten it either. I think Korina's result could be very useful.
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Post Post #877 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:10 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

I got a bingle flip and reevaluated the game over night

knowing that one Orig.Cult is within {sho/poy} that means I can't write off your weird early tone as being 'not what I expect a CL to be doing' when it's possible you were just excited about being CL
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Post Post #878 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:10 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

why would scum ever recruit korina n1
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Post Post #879 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:12 pm

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There's something i specifically expect korina to say if he's cult, and something he'd say if he's still town.

Wouldn't say very useful, but not useless either.
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Post Post #880 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:17 pm

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In post 877, ObviousScum wrote:weird early tone
Lul, is this why you're CLreading me? Do you have any other reasons?
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Post Post #881 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:19 pm

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In post 876, Kanna wrote:But what if the cultists didn't recruit Korina yesterday because everyone expected them to and he would be seen as unreliable today anyway?

Also I was theorising Hectic got the FN message but since it seems like he hasn't, then yeah shos/poyzin are both cult. I didn't get it and no one else seems to have gotten it either. I think Korina's result could be very useful.
It is technically possible that they recruit someone like Obum, to set him on a course to derail the next day. Which kinda fits with how he comes out attacking me/Farkran today. It'd make sense if you or Bla was the CL.
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Post Post #882 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:19 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

associations with poyz and PoE
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Post Post #883 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:20 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

In post 881, Hectic wrote:It is technically possible that they recruit someone like Obum, to set him on a course to derail the next day. Which kinda fits with how he comes out attacking me/Farkran today. It'd make sense if you or Bla was the CL.
pretty bad attempt at poisoning the well there buddy
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Post Post #884 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:20 pm

Post by Kanna »

I'm still more inclined to think Poyz is the rolecop and shos got recruited yesterday. His entry was very not town. CL is in the rest of us.
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Post Post #885 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:20 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 793, Blatant Scum wrote:VOTE: Kanna
Why did you vote Kanna end of day yesterday, Bla?
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Post Post #886 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:21 pm

Post by Blatant Scum »

In post 878, ObviousScum wrote:why would scum ever recruit korina n1
If shos is town, scum autoloses if CL is lynched (regardless of target) and no cultist is lynched. Korina is able to find CL.
Don’t forget about how when I asked him for a link to his scumgame, he linked THIS game. - Pyrrha Nikos
He usually never puts effort into reads like that, which does sometimes get him scumread, but since he was on an alt and we didn't know his meta, I can see CL!him making reads as an exception since he knows he'll probably be scumread otherwise.
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Post Post #887 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:22 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 883, ObviousScum wrote:
In post 881, Hectic wrote:It is technically possible that they recruit someone like Obum, to set him on a course to derail the next day. Which kinda fits with how he comes out attacking me/Farkran today. It'd make sense if you or Bla was the CL.
pretty bad attempt at poisoning the well there buddy
Just throwing ideas out, buddy. I'm trying not to get in a game-losing 1v1 with you if you're town. Objectively speaking, your play so far today isn't really CL-like, considering you've flipped on a townread, and come out attacking probably the two most active players.
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Post Post #888 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:24 pm

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but shos is obviously not town, so in your theory they had to cult poyz last night so that they can cult korina tonight after they bus one of their buddies
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Post Post #889 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by Blatant Scum »

In post 885, Hectic wrote:
In post 793, Blatant Scum wrote:VOTE: Kanna
Why did you vote Kanna end of day yesterday, Bla?
I liked Bingle so I wanted to present a counterwagoon.
Don’t forget about how when I asked him for a link to his scumgame, he linked THIS game. - Pyrrha Nikos
He usually never puts effort into reads like that, which does sometimes get him scumread, but since he was on an alt and we didn't know his meta, I can see CL!him making reads as an exception since he knows he'll probably be scumread otherwise.
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Post Post #890 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

In post 887, Hectic wrote:Just throwing ideas out, buddy. I'm trying not to get in a game-losing 1v1 with you if you're town. Objectively speaking, your play so far today isn't really CL-like, considering you've flipped on a townread, and come out attacking probably the two most active players.
sure, fark's play today does seem to more fit the cult agenda so I could be wrong on you
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Post Post #891 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:29 pm

Post by Kanna »

Why aren't you considering me, OS?

I'll come back when Korina says something because this game is too big brained for me. I still think Fark/Poyz makes the most sense and Fark's Poyzin push today is incredibly weird.
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Post Post #892 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:35 pm

Post by Hectic »

So my current thinking is CL is Bla or Farkran.
In post 828, Farkran wrote:Option 1. Poyzin was an extremely lucky liar
Option 2. Shos orchestrated the plan to lynch twice

Either way, both lynches will likely land on cult today. Poyzin still has the highest CL equity of the two.

VOTE: poyzin
In post 829, shos wrote:VOTE: poyzin
I don't think I need to talk today at all
I didn't like Farkran's weird opening post here, but sh0s' vote after so badly aligns himself with Farkran, it's actually anti-CL points for him.

Kanna I'm discounting a little for being so anti-consensus yesterday. The list of random thoughts she posted seemed too nuanced for scum. is the post.
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Post Post #893 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 889, Blatant Scum wrote:
In post 885, Hectic wrote:
In post 793, Blatant Scum wrote:VOTE: Kanna
Why did you vote Kanna end of day yesterday, Bla?
I liked Bingle so I wanted to present a counterwagoon.
So who's good for CL today?
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Post Post #894 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

In post 365, Poyzin wrote:
In post 291, Farkran wrote:
In post 278, Poyzin wrote:-snip-
I admit i am tunneling at this point, but why would you only consider Hectic and Kanna for that specific reasoning? I mean, even in your quotes they are mostly talking about me and my posts. How i am not included in that specific reasoning? I could see disagreement bias since i am pushing you, but i'd like to ask you what makes me less town than kanna and hectic from your POV if you assume i am pushing "player x" instead of "poyzin".
You’re probably town, but I don’t think I can make a proper read of your alignment based on your tunnel on me without it being impacted by my personal opinions about it. “No lynch” player is probably a cultist, but I’m not sure about if they are the cult leader.

Kind of curious if Kanna decides to say that they get “weak town” vibes off of my post that town read them; seems like Kanna wants to give me assurance that I’m “onto something” with my reads.

My vote isn’t really useful right now so I’m going to place it somewhere more useful.

VOTE: No łynch. This would be L-2.
There's a chance this is distancing but it feels more like opportunism to me
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Post Post #895 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:41 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

In post 365, Poyzin wrote:You’re probably town, but I don’t think I can make a proper read of your alignment based on your tunnel on me without it being impacted by my personal opinions about it. “No lynch” player is probably a cultist, but I’m not sure about if they are the cult leader.
In post 556, Poyzin wrote:I’m confident Farkran is town, given that it is understandable to wagon me right now with my piss-poor apologies.
This is a terrible development actually and it's plausible Fark bussed Poyzin specifically so that he could hardclaim and out the power structure of the town

sure let's roll with it

VOTE: Fark
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Post Post #896 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:47 pm

Post by Farkran »

Drop your tunnel, you're making no sense.

CL does not give a shit about bussing today, they do not need korina. Korina could only catch the CL during n1, he will NEVER, EVER be able to catch him again. Either he did, or he is now effectively a VT if not already culted.

Poyzin does have CL equity though. I do not understand why cult!shos would hold his FN target when he could just claim random bullshit?

I'll wait for korina to speak, that's my tiebreaker for today. If i get to believe poyzin was town, BS is my next bet.
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Post Post #897 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:51 pm

Post by Farkran »

Post 896 is WRT my d2 introduction.

As for my bussing d1, that would make more sense. You're assuming shos is still town though, which i could agree with but will need developments first.
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Post Post #898 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:56 pm

Post by ObviousScum »

In post 896, Farkran wrote:Drop your tunnel, you're making no sense.

CL does not give a shit about bussing today, they do not need korina.
In post 897, Farkran wrote:You're assuming shos is still town though,
interesting
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Post Post #899 (ISO) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:03 pm

Post by Farkran »

In post 898, ObviousScum wrote:
In post 896, Farkran wrote:Drop your tunnel, you're making no sense.

CL does not give a shit about bussing today, they do not need korina.
In post 897, Farkran wrote:You're assuming shos is still town though,
interesting
World 1. There are rolestopper and tracker. Cult recruits rolestopper. Korina gets his one chance to identify the CL, after which the CL won't act again because they are capped. Once they aren't capped anymore, they will recruit korina, who won't tell us the truth.

World 2. There is no rolestopper. Korina is already culted.
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