Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[SherlockHolmes]

Honestly, I feel kind of unimpressed by nachomamma given his reputation. I feel like there’s been a certain amount of aiming but not really the town leading I hoped for/expected to see. I am somewhat uncomfortable that he entered advocating for fighting someone but later shifted to wanting to share hectic, and while I do think hectic is probably town I think his gimmick is a weak reason to be TRing him.

I’m having a feeling like I’ve said some of this before, but I’m not certain, and to get back into this game I sort of need to reiterate some of the points to myself

[popsofctown]

Bandage

[SherlockHolmes]

Official playerlist:
Hectic
JTheophrastus Bartholomew
Asriel Dreemurr
Amrun
Chara
Nachomamma8
Billy Pilgrim
Chemist1422
SherlockHolmes
alimdia
Pine

Could this be updated please, popsofctown?

[SherlockHolmes]

Replacement history:
Hectic

JTheophrastus Bartholomew

Replica

Asriel Dreemurr

Farkran
Amrun
Chara

Nachomamma8

Alisae

Nachomamma8

Billy Pilgrim

Sujimichi
Chemist1422
SherlockHolmes
alimdia

Pine

Psyche

Nvm

[SherlockHolmes]

I’d actually quite like to lynch nachomamma, looking back at his ISO and his recent readslist, although I’m willing to listen to his explanation. That seems like a very safe readlist, for lack of a better word. Like, I wouldn’t necessarily have expected to see myself and two other lurkers in your desired D1 lynchpool because that’s a very lhf way of approaching the game, and I don’t really see why if you think you have your pool down to 3 then why would you want to spare more than lynch in that pool?

[SherlockHolmes]

I think someone asked me a while ago why I reached out to certain players: at the time, they were people I felt quite good about being town and wanted to work with them and bounce reads back and forth with. Right now, I think I’d most like to chat with amrun, when she’s next available. Chemist too, I still think he’s pretty hard town here

[SherlockHolmes]

I don’t particularly townread chara’s content, but I do think effort leans slightly +town and this is a game with only 2 scum so they can lean slightly town for now

So where are we

Something like

Town
Amrun
Chem

Townlean
Hectic
Chara

Nulltown
Farkran
Replica

Null
Psyche

Scumlean
Nacho
Suji

Scum
Alim

[SherlockHolmes]

I guess nacho could be in the middle there actually, between scumlean and scum

[SherlockHolmes]

His posts seem towny, but his presence/direction don’t

[SherlockHolmes]

Alim does probably need revisiting as an independent slot since I got to my read on him, but I’m not totally sure when I’ll have the chance to do that. So in the meantime he’s there

[Sujimichi]

Why am I a scum lean absent your dislike of my playstyle?

[SherlockHolmes]

I think you seem over-eager to spare, and also, to be clear, I don’t dislike your play style I just find it scummy. It’s almost excessively polite, which feels like you’re trying not to offend. This does seem consistent with your past games though, so I’m not convinced it’s AI, but I lean toward scumreading that.

You seem to have made some quite effort-y posts here which was very absent from your recent scumgame, but you also don’t seem to have done that in any games before at all, so I don’t think it’s that AI for you either (at least, not yet)

[SherlockHolmes]

What do you think of nacho, suji?

[SherlockHolmes]

Oh, actually I think suji is locktown but it’s for a very angleshooty reason I’d rather avoid

[Sujimichi]

What do you think of nacho, suji?

I had an early town read on him for his initial contribution on Sparing, but it has decreased through this Day phase as his thoughts regarding Sparing do not seem consistent, and I don't know if I find his thoughts on other player's to be genuine. I would rather not apply activity to my read on him, but I cannot lie in that it is some skewing my thoughts on him due to the fact he has brought it up himself multiple times.

[Farkran]

I wanted to wait until I get home but the earlier this gets nipped the better.

Farkran-you really, REALLY need to do the math on sparing strategies before going on a posting spree about how it's mechanically bad. As far as I can tell, your opposition to it is that it seems mathematically and not coming from pragmatic concerns (How I'd classify Nacho/Amrun)

The win rate for playing it mountainous is upperbounded by 11:2's known win rate of 39%. The win rate for 3/4 spares are in the low 40s. I didn't calc 2 spares and 1 spare is awful. I back of the envelope did it on a napkin at lunch but I'll draw it up again if I have to.

My problem with sparing is that giving up the info a flip would provide is not worth the bonuses obtained after sparing any amount of people, mostly because said bonuses are not worth... anything, to be fair. Running plain math, based on random results, will probably produce ~balanced results. However, if provided with information, people will lynch based on premises, assumptions, deductions, analysis - sparing postpones most of this content to a later time, which means any decision to spare made before that is no better than random, and the reward is next to nothing. I mean, sparing 4 towns is an instant town win, but so is fighting 2 scum. The added benefit is that by fighting you get to VCA, by sparing you don't.

[SherlockHolmes]

HURT: nacho

[SherlockHolmes]

I suspect that sorting in (nacho, alim, psyche, replica) should yield all the scum

[SherlockHolmes]

I further think it’s unlikely that (nacho, replica) are SvS so if nacho flips scum then replica should be cleared and hectic should be reconsidered

[Farkran]

Hi suji! Besides scumreading you, i am happy to play with you again!

I'd like you to answer my 401 wrt your part. What reason did you have to scumread Farkran, rather than Asriel? Why is asking for a recap scummy in your eyes?

Pedit: i don't recall hectic claiming FN. I am fairly sure he claimed NOT being FN. Am i wrong?

Hello. Good to play with you again as well. What specifically from your 401 would you like answered by me? I disliked your outsourcing your reads to others prior to stating your own opinion becuase

1. The game is not that long, and it should not take you long to catch up
   
2. It allows you to modify your opinions to fit others and the game state as a whole instead of accurately projecting your true opinion

I did not say that Hectic was the Friendly Neighbor (he in fact claimed that he was not). I was asking of your opinion regardless of who is the Friendly Neighbor as you are adamantly against Sparing. I have written in depth on my thoughts on waiting for the Friendly Neighbor to wait until Day 2 to claim, so you are welcome to read through my ISO. I will reassess with your stated consideration. Thank you.

Yeah... my problem with this explanation is that it seems made specifically as a followup to your scumread of my pred, rather than a genuine scumread of Farkran. Did you consider that asking for a recap has nothing to do with reading said recap, but rather to see who picks the request up and is willing to summarize past events and in doing so produce more info about their own slot, i.e. what events have been the most significative to them, what was worth pointing out and what was worth hiding and/or not worth recalling?

This is one reason i liked how Chara answered to me compared to Hectic or you, Suji. To aggravate your position, instead of trying to reassess a weak scumread on a recently replaced slot, you immediately found reason to add more weight to it, even though pops' 394 removed the deadline pressure to reach a positive conclusion for this day. Your latest explanations did nothing to justify this, instead consolidating my already existing suspicion of you being leading a scum agenda.

[Replica]

That's fine then, similar to other concerns that I think are valid. My concern was a completely wrong interpretation of the mechanic's theoretical effect.

[Sujimichi]

My dislike of your comment upon replace in is divorced my read on your predecessor. You can believe that to be genuine or not and I cannot change that. I find requesting opinions from others rather than providing your own and then requesting others’ to be indicative of Mafia. You may posit alternative rationale, but I disagree with it.

[Sujimichi]

My post was directed at Farkran not Replica.

[SherlockHolmes]

It genuinely pains me that neither of you is engaging with the wealth of content that I just produced

[Farkran]

My dislike of your comment upon replace in is divorced my read on your predecessor. You can believe that to be genuine or not and I cannot change that. I find requesting opinions from others rather than providing your own and then requesting others’ to be indicative of Mafia. You may posit alternative rationale, but I disagree with it.

I might have believed that if you changed your read from my pred to me based on that comment, but after your opportunistic vote in 264, there's almost no world in which i would believe your latest read on me is divorced from that. Also, if i had to request opinions as mafia, i would likely read or ask for them in my scum PT, don't you think? That's not even the main issue here though, the most significant problem with your comment is that you have IMMEDIATELY tried to shot me down, putting weight on an already existing scumread which was necessarily weak, given that it was parked on a lurker slot. This is how you push a mislynch, not how you try to scumhunt.

pedit @sherlock: i'm trying to take advantage of you being here to reread your ISO, but i'm not sure if i have any particular question for you besides talk me more about almidia and chemist. My read of almidia is not particularly strong, but i certainly wouldn't place chemist in my top townreads.