TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[ofrhz]

I don't know if you remember this but you had a wagon D1 because of jjh?

oh, right

[Jingle]

Am I the only one who read hitos post and was like... why is Hito sheeping dead scum that got replaced?

[ofrhz]

I've reread the first 20ish pages and Kerset, Jingle, and Shadoweh's ISOs, and out of the three, I'm still throwing my weight behind Kerset town.

It's occurred to me that maybe hito isn't absolutely locktown given that he could have reasonably shot Alisae thinking e wasn't a viable mislynch, but his ISO just has so many words, and I'm running out of time tonight.

I'm also effectively v/la for the next 3 weeks as my team enters a death march to launch our product, so seeing I'm in pretty much everyone's PoE pool except Jingle's, we can end the day on me after I get the chance to reread hito, and you guys can at least work with the fact that there was indeed a novice 1s vig

[Kerset]

Is there any proof that hito is aware what his talisman does? I was looking at the order of events and it seems that each receiver claimed talisman effects before hito said anything about it.

[Kerset]

FTR my lynch pool is ofr -> Jingle -> Kerset. Team Bitmap thought Jingle was the last scum so take his offer to kill himself seriously if you decide to substitue me for someone in there.

I just think your solve is giving you mental damage Jingle, especially when you're jamming your own lynch in there.

My team puts a lot of stock in you being town so it bothers me that you might be okay with laying down and dying.

This game isn't solved and we can't afford to just let things happen. Besides, even if we're horribly wrong it probably will help more to have two mechanical roles verified rather then seeing two VT flips in a row.

You said that he should be lynched tomorrow. I am moderately confused on your/your team view on him.

[Jingle]

Is there any proof that hito is aware what his talisman does? I was looking at the order of events and it seems that each receiver claimed talisman effects before hito said anything about it.

Not really but that’s an even weirder set of circumstances than forced scum commuter. He accidentally gave the positive utility to the townread and the negative utility to the scumread and saved the confirmable one for last? That’s super unlikely. If Hito is scum he knew exactly what he was doing.

[Jingle]

I just think your solve is giving you mental damage Jingle, especially when you're jamming your own lynch in there. My team puts a lot of stock in you being town so it bothers me that you might be okay with laying down and dying. This game isn't solved and we can't afford to just let things happen. Besides, even if we're horribly wrong it probably will help more to have two mechanical roles verified rather then seeing two VT flips in a row.

If Kerset is scum one of the following is the truth:

Kerset is a compulsive scum commuter who did not immediately use the shot after the first buddy lynch.

Kerset is a non compulsive scum commuter who chose to commute instead of kill after back to back scum lynches.

Kerset is a third blocking role who targeted chem on n2.

All of those are incredibly unlikely. Kerset is town. (As painful as that sentence is.)

[Chemist1422]

VOTE: Shadoweh

I guess

I think we should just hammer soon because I don't see any new discussion going on

[hitogoroshi]

Am I the only one who read hitos post and was like... why is Hito sheeping dead scum that got replaced?

Gamma wants me to say that, as he is now the only currently living Gamma and the only town Gamma, your forgetting is unacceptable. Repent!

Is there any proof that hito is aware what his talisman does? I was looking at the order of events and it seems that each receiver claimed talisman effects before hito said anything about it.

2182 has the D2 crumb I wanted to use D2 and didn't because I never got a chance to post. So not a "proof" per se because mastina went ahead and snapped to claiming the bp D3 before I posted (;_;), but if it was a fake it was a fake on three hours notice. It also would have been a pretty risky gambit to say I used hated just to save my last N3 talisman if I actually had no clue what the N3 talisman was going to be.

I just think your solve is giving you mental damage Jingle, especially when you're jamming your own lynch in there. My team puts a lot of stock in you being town so it bothers me that you might be okay with laying down and dying. This game isn't solved and we can't afford to just let things happen. Besides, even if we're horribly wrong it probably will help more to have two mechanical roles verified rather then seeing two VT flips in a row.

If Kerset is scum one of the following is the truth:

Kerset is a compulsive scum commuter who did not immediately use the shot after the first buddy lynch.

Kerset is a non compulsive scum commuter who chose to commute instead of kill after back to back scum lynches.

Kerset is a third blocking role who targeted chem on n2.

All of those are incredibly unlikely. Kerset is town. (As painful as that sentence is.)

Am I missing some reason why Kerset couldn't just be an n-shot ascetic?

VOTE: Shadoweh

I guess

I think we should just hammer soon because I don't see any new discussion going on

Actually, I feel like this day has been reasonably productive (to the extent I've been plugged in which I freely admit is not 100% right now). If nothing else, seeing who's looking to townsolve and who isn't might be really useful if we miss our first hit here.

What were those mech thoughts you wanted to dump? Would love to feel lock about one more townie.

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 4.08
Shadoweh (2): Jingle, Chemist1422 Not Voting (5): Kerset, ofrhz, Shadoweh, Klick, hitogoroshi With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline : (expired on 2020-02-03 18:30:00)

[Chemist1422]

ohhh yeah hold on

it was mostly NKA so I'm gonna drop a couple lists and assumptions before I get into the actual post

Locktown:
Chem
Klick

No reason not to kill mastina (or rather no knowledge of the protection), so unnecessary to evaluate currently:
Jingle
Shadoweh

Could not have killed N2 so it doesn't matter: Kerset

Analyzable through NKA:
ofrhz
hito

Assumption #1: No townie is lying about any abilites or actions
Assumption #2: There is no serial killer
Assumption #3: ofrhz is not lying about having personal KP (if they're scum, they are a 1-shot vig)

[Chemist1422]

One more assumption I forgot: hito is aware of what modifiers they give out.

Anyway here we go

If hito is scum, they knew mastina would be protected by their bulletproof, which leads into assumption #5: the last mafia member did not intentionally waste the N2 kill. So that leaves the following options for nightkills: Ali and Kerset. I don't think Kerset is a likely nightkill at all given how low they were in the PoE entering day 3, so we can make them not being targeted assumption #6. I'll get to what this could mean later.

That being said I do think I might be making too many assumptions even though they're reasonable on their own.

If ofrhz is scum, presumably one of their kills was on mastina and the other was on Ali, based on assumption #6. This is pretty straightforward, but I do think that is a likely shot from a scum vig that wants to claim vig later, at least in a vacuum.

[Chemist1422]

i'm so glad i finally get to use this stupid chart

[Chemist1422]

Kerset bitmap klick
Hito reundo ?

There's also this though which I do think deserves at least a little bit of looking at

[Chemist1422]

UNVOTE: Shadoweh

hito when you're around I wanna ask you a couple questions

[Jingle]

1 shot ascetic makes less sense than commuter from the standpoint of scum utility.

I doubt that ofhrz is scum with a vig, let alone one who is capable of killing twice in one night by themselves. That’s an insane amount of scum power and combining that with a strongman and a roleblock would be overkill for the amount of town power. By a lot. If she’s scum she almost certainly shot Ali instead of mastina.

[Chemist1422]

ofrhz claimed after Klick/hito claimed to protect mastina right

[Chemist1422]

still I don't think the Ali kill ever makes sense from someone who isn't hito unless they were exactly ofrhz planning on claiming vig

which is ??? if they aren't actually a vig, and presumably didn't know about the protection going into N2

[Jingle]

Ali kill only makes sense from ofhrz regardless of her alignment.

Missing a kill on mastina is far more likely from everyone. Hito killing alisae, Kerset, or no killing are all possible, but of the three the no kill gambit is the most likely imo.

[hitogoroshi]

Kerset bitmap klick
Hito reundo ?

There's also this though which I do think deserves at least a little bit of looking at

Self-serving of me to bring up but Alisae followed that up by speculating on the teams and reversed eir opinion:

Hito Reundo ?
Who is the ?
well

Hito pushed ofhrz with a weak push and if ofhrz was scum with hito, it would be really good to try and push this harder. Instead he drops it and looks for something else. Its not ofhrz
Hito pushes Bitmap and Bitmap would distance from Hito here instead of focusing on me. Its not Bitmap.
Hito's first real vote from memory is Chemist, and that doesn't seem to be a bus, so we can cross this off the list. Its not chemiboi
I don't think Hito can be paired with Shadoweh, I like Shadoweh individually as straight up town but I don't think hito and shadoweh could be described as distancing, atleast I don't think the intentions of their interactions would be to distance. Its not Shadoweh.
Hito's actions conflict with Kersets just based on the last few pages.
I feel like if Klick was scum with Hito, he would be doing something else at this moment. Its not Klick
And I'm not about to go pointing fingers at my townblock

A team cannot reasonably work, Hito Reundo ? is not a team that can work in my mind.

Alisae had me locktown already and was gonna adjust me even more green on reundo red. So if I was scum killing Alisae I think it would have had to be because I saw a PR soft or something; it'd be just about the worst possible kill for me dayplay wise.

UNVOTE: Shadoweh

hito when you're around I wanna ask you a couple questions

I can do psuedo-live for at least a couple of hours here. Until I take Nyquil basically.

1 shot ascetic makes less sense than commuter from the standpoint of scum utility.

I doubt that ofhrz is scum with a vig, let alone one who is capable of killing twice in one night by themselves. That’s an insane amount of scum power and combining that with a strongman and a roleblock would be overkill for the amount of town power. By a lot. If she’s scum she almost certainly shot Ali instead of mastina.

I guess, why does x-shot ascetic make less sense than commuter for scum utility? It seems a little better than commuter (because you can kill), for a scum team that you think was a little weak.

I'm not saying I'm dead to rights it's Kerset or anything - his play today has kinda been scummy but I still really like his end of day 1 progression - but I'm just not seeing where the mechanical clear is coming from.

ofrhz claimed after Klick/hito claimed to protect mastina right

As far as I remember she claimed between me and mastina. She definitely knew about mastinas bulletproof talisman but not that I had been the one to vend it, I think.

[Chemist1422]

Okay yeah

You already answered my first question, so can I get an explanation for all of your targets?

[hitogoroshi]

Okay yeah

You already answered my first question, so can I get an explanation for all of your targets?

2182 goes in to super gory detail of my BP target, but the cliff notes are: since bulletproof was the only really useful talisman, I really wanted to try to make it work, so my biggest goal was dodging N1 kill on the person I targeted. The secondary goal was trying to get someone who *would be shot* N2. I had menal and Alisae as the two who came off looking the best from the reundo wagon and figured they were the 'default' kills. I also had Bitmap as nigh-lock scum, so my kill pool also included jjh, who I figured Bitmap would kill if he wanted to force a 1v1 reckoning with me - jjh was probably the most influential player to be firmly on my side. And then I had myself as a potential kill from exactly Bitmap/Shadoweh team, but I can't self-vend so that didn't matter.

Looking outside of that pool, mastina seemed the most likely to live N1 but die N2, as someone anti-Bitmap but not particularly influential -so her flip is still bad for Bitmap but her presence can be worked around. I also considered Jingle because it seemed like he would go for a gambit handshake more than mastina would, but my team liked the fact that mastina was a more likely N2 kill on the face of it and we figured we'd just not do the gambit. Ended up getting really lucky with her being a PR, but that wasn't a targeting factor.

N2 I picked Bitmap just because Hated is a scummy power and I wanted to use it on a day when it would be the least disruptive + give a good reason to claim N2 and maybe draw NK out of fear of talisman 3. Tbh I also kind of figured the game was over when Bitmap flipped and all of my plans to handle N3+ were like, margin-playing as far as I was concerned. (Now you know why I bother to play margins!)

N3 I wanted to just confirm Kerset wasn't a permanent ascetic. I figured it gives us useful info and didn't see any other way that Loved gives any usable info - the "confirmable" talisman aspect is pretty irrelevant when two conf towns have confirmed they got the talismans already.

[Chemist1422]

alright that checks out

yeah I kinda just wanna lock hito town now

ofrhz, why did you shoot Ali? Was it just because they were being loud and wrong? (that's not an insult if you're reading ali)

[Jingle]

I guess, why does x-shot ascetic make less sense than commuter for scum utility? It seems a little better than commuter (because you can kill), for a scum team that you think was a little weak.

Kers scum means ofhrz town and ascetic doesn’t stop bullets, but does stop the things that stop bullets. It also still doesn’t change the guilty from mastina’s role.

Commuter on a scumteam implies town killing power, ascetic doesn’t. If Kerset is scum, there is necessarily town killing power.

[ofrhz]

Sup jingle, are there reasons why I should be townreading you aside from Menalque claiming something dumb