Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Psyche]

im trying to reduce how often i check on and make posts in this thread if i dont pace myself it's all over for me all over

[Nachomamma8]

I'm flying home today - I will try to check in tonight but if I do not it's because I passed out and instead will see you tomorrow.

[Replica]

My reads work in place of a hurt vote without the danger of others trying to use it to start wagons. No thanks.

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The

DANGER

of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

No way i believe this. I don't buy that you put "being fiercely competitive and having a relentless drive to win" in the same line as "i am so afraid that my reads are wrong that i don't even want to risk putting weight into them", especially when you have such strong conviction about sparing being the absolute best strategy and about our spare targets being correct, without even having a flip to confirm. This thought process is conveniently exploited to validate any past, present or future error that you make in this game, which means you will likely place your partner as one of your sparing targets during the course of the match.

This post is really awful and to me is blatantly working backwards.

I'll start in reverse, with the asserted conflict that I can't have an ego and be relentlessly competitive while simultaneously distrusting my own reads. Possessing a characteristic is not the same as thinking it a strength. I have spoken at length this game about the necessity of recognizing one's flaws and not letting them overtake you. My style of playing scum is literally taking advantage of people who don't.

This is applied to "Why won't Replica try to lynch their scumreads?". "You don't trust your scumreads enough to see them fullfill their purpose...You have scumreads because you want to remove scum" is willfully missing the point of how I view this game; lynching scum in this game is my Plan B. My scumreads exist so that I can

select town correctly

. I have

absolutely no intention

of removing scum this game except as a last resort and perhaps on Day 4. Of course I don't want a wagon to start or for people to perceive that a lynch has become marginally more possible by seeing me place a hurt vote. #685 and #689 both make clear that while I'll push and scumread Nacho, I adamantly oppose his lynch today.

You double down on this here:

the reason stated is "it is dangerous to cast a fight vote because other people could use it to create a wagon." This is in stark contrast with his profile of an above average self-esteem person, displayed in lines like "i do not have fun as scum because it is too easy", and even more in contrast with "i am strongly convinced my strategy is optimal and my townreads are correct". That's the problem.

To you, the fact that I possess an ego seems to preclude my having any recognition or sincere attempt to fix it. The latter characterization is blatantly awful; you yourself have hounded how I keep saying that I distrust my reads. My strategy is optimal to me

precisely

because I don't trust my reads on two fronts. The first is that my statement that if we lynch, it should be later rather than sooner, and that if we spare, it should be sooner rather than later. This is to leverage probability, and is made even more explicit,

in the context of me being bad at townreads

in #379. The second is that even if I am so bad that my reads might as well be random...3/4 spares wins me more games. There is absolutely no dependency or even displayed thinking that I am confident in my townreads but not my scumreads like you're trying to assert here.

This seems like a very intentional attempt to exploit the gap between self-perceptions and reality, that you absolutely know exists for every one of us, rather than an earnest attempt at understanding how those fears/ideals have manifested this game.

[Sujimichi]

I am somewhat concerned that we will not reach a decision prior to the deadline as there is not only a lack of consensus on whether to Spare or Fight, but there is a lack of consensus on which player to Spare if we Spare, or which player to Fight if we Fight. When I am able to (in about an hour) I will say more, but I wanted to make this statement before then as we are quickly approaching the less than 24-hour mark until deadline expiration.

[Replica]

i wonder if i could compute an EV comparing a blind spare strategy against a blind lynch strategy and from there try to guess the relative value of differently confident townreads against differently confident scumreads in this game

meh there's no way i get that done before deadline

#419.

39% win is the upper bound for all lynch by comparison to 11:2 mountainous. Hitting this upper bound would require treating the FN as equivalent to an extra mislynch, the real probability is closer to 36% if I had to guess (Lower bounded by 10:2 mountainous's 33%). 3/4 spare gives us something like 42/43%. It is worth noting that these did assume FN spare Day 1 iirc.

If you really do agree at least with the

intuition

that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.

The word "earnest" here makes me think you missed the point of my post:

I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture.

My other theory was betting on getting spared yourself, but I don't think that's plausible. If you're scum you're banking on the fact that only 1/2 of the spares you listed will happen max.

I will also readily admit that I don't think the PT post means much from Sujimichi. I put a lot more emphasis on the difference between the two games in depth of thought and how forthcoming he is in this one. If you're worried that I say that with the intent of obfuscating as you suggested you would as scum, have no fear because I can put it to rest:

HEAL: Sujimichi

[Replica]

@Sujimichi: I'm pretty sure we can get a heal here; I placed that forgetting some people had put heals on Sherlock but we should easily be able to get a coalition around any of you/Hectic/Sherlock.

[Chara]

i'm more confident in sparing Hectic than Sujimichi or Sherlock.

[Replica]

i'm more confident in sparing Hectic than Sujimichi or Sherlock.

My preference is something like Sujimichi>Hectic=Sherlock.

Sherlock's done a great thing for us, Hectic hasn't been, like, very town recently but has just played really cleanly. He's not making me townread him more, but he's not making any mistakes if he's scum.

As a claimed VT I think there's value in leaving Hectic and sparing Sujimichi. If Sujimichi is also a VT, it forces scum to choose between shooting a likely townspare or shooting to hit the FN.

[Chara]

being confident in townreads =/= having the same confidence in scumreads or wanting to pursue them.
i don't like Farkran's angle here at all and i don't find it a contradiction in the first place. Replica said as much already about why they want to spare and you acknowledged that. i also can't conceive of what scum Replica would achieve by discrediting their own scumreads or themself, except as a way to lower responsibility for mislynches. but they aren't going for mislynches.

pedit: i find the denial of hammering the spare to be still significant, along with the followup. Sujimichi is not a bad choice either, but i'd rather be more sure than not with something like this, and it's similar with Sherlock. there's the possibility of scum making one big towny move, but i find Hectic being scum and making the decisions he has to be much less likely.

[Replica]

I'm pretty sure someone lumped me in with the people who scumread Nacho for activity then backed off at the V/LA at some point.

I've been scumleaning Nacho because that Chemist reasoning was steaming hot trash. It's not about how much he's posting, and my insisting we don't lynch him is not backing off because of the V/LA but because lynching anyone today is awful imo.

[Chara]

As a claimed VT I think there's value in leaving Hectic and sparing Sujimichi. If Sujimichi is also a VT, it forces scum to choose between shooting a likely townspare or shooting to hit the FN.

i think i see what you're saying, (i think) but i'm most concerned with today's spare being correct.
i'll compromise there but i would really rather Hectic.

and Nacho: i'm not sure if we have the time for that.

[Replica]

being confident in townreads =/= having the same confidence in scumreads or wanting to pursue them.
i don't like Farkran's angle here at all and i don't find it a contradiction in the first place. Replica said as much already about why they want to spare and you acknowledged that. i also can't conceive of what scum Replica would achieve by discrediting their own scumreads or themself, except as a way to lower responsibility for mislynches. but they aren't going for mislynches.

I think one of his points is that by downplaying the confidence in my scumreads, and combining it with not lynching and getting no flips, I'm hoping to skirt any responsibility, which is a fair point imo.

The more egregious thing is that he conflates the possession of an ego with the requirement that I let it rule me, becoming the type of person who refuses to use my brakes while driving because I'm so good I can just dodge everything. That whole post came from working backwards.

pedit: i find the denial of hammering the spare to be still significant, along with the followup. Sujimichi is not a bad choice either, but i'd rather be more sure than not with something like this, and it's similar with Sherlock. there's the possibility of scum making one big towny move, but i find Hectic being scum and making the decisions he has to be much less likely.

Have you read the first part of #688? Slash agree with it? The brevity of both the game in general and Sujimichi's posts make it really easy to compare his scumgame to this one imo

[Chara]

i don't disagree with your analysis of the two games.
the problem is, yes they were simultaneous, but one was an 8-day long Micro, while this one is a mini with specific mechanics. the thread environment is a significant factor on the type of posting in the game, as much as alignments. that's one of the reasons i don't put much stock into single-game meta.
Sujimichi's approach does seem to be more nuanced/deep here. it could be because they're town, and i do find it more likely they are.

Hectic is just a slot i can't really conceive of as scum unless they made a very big mistake early on. i suppose it's possible they got overconfident and thought delaying would add to their towniness while still being ensured of being spared, but do they then let that bleed into their posting?

they're probably both town and i'm thinking too much about it, but this is different from a lynch, where being wrong is not as damaging.

but i will reread to see how i feel about both of them.

[Farkran]

My reads work in place of a hurt vote without the danger of others trying to use it to start wagons. No thanks.

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The

DANGER

of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

No way i believe this. I don't buy that you put "being fiercely competitive and having a relentless drive to win" in the same line as "i am so afraid that my reads are wrong that i don't even want to risk putting weight into them", especially when you have such strong conviction about sparing being the absolute best strategy and about our spare targets being correct, without even having a flip to confirm. This thought process is conveniently exploited to validate any past, present or future error that you make in this game, which means you will likely place your partner as one of your sparing targets during the course of the match.

This post is really awful and to me is blatantly working backwards.

Not an argument, this is free shade.

I'll start in reverse, with the asserted conflict that I can't have an ego and be relentlessly competitive while simultaneously distrusting my own reads. Possessing a characteristic is not the same as thinking it a strength. I have spoken at length this game about the necessity of recognizing one's flaws and not letting them overtake you. My style of playing scum is literally taking advantage of people who don't.

This is applied to "Why won't Replica try to lynch their scumreads?". "You don't trust your scumreads enough to see them fullfill their purpose...You have scumreads because you want to remove scum" is willfully missing the point of how I view this game; lynching scum in this game is my Plan B. My scumreads exist so that I can

select town correctly

. I have

absolutely no intention

of removing scum this game except as a last resort and perhaps on Day 4. Of course I don't want a wagon to start or for people to perceive that a lynch has become marginally more possible by seeing me place a hurt vote. #685 and #689 both make clear that while I'll push and scumread Nacho, I adamantly oppose his lynch today.

Again, no. You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem, high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote. This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads. You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

You double down on this here:

the reason stated is "it is dangerous to cast a fight vote because other people could use it to create a wagon." This is in stark contrast with his profile of an above average self-esteem person, displayed in lines like "i do not have fun as scum because it is too easy", and even more in contrast with "i am strongly convinced my strategy is optimal and my townreads are correct". That's the problem.

To you, the fact that I possess an ego seems to preclude my having any recognition or sincere attempt to fix it. The latter characterization is blatantly awful; you yourself have hounded how I keep saying that I distrust my reads. My strategy is optimal to me

precisely

because I don't trust my reads on two fronts. The first is that my statement that if we lynch, it should be later rather than sooner, and that if we spare, it should be sooner rather than later. This is to leverage probability, and is made even more explicit,

in the context of me being bad at townreads

in #379. The second is that even if I am so bad that my reads might as well be random...3/4 spares wins me more games. There is absolutely no dependency or even displayed thinking that I am confident in my townreads but not my scumreads like you're trying to assert here.

3/4 spares wins you more games

when you are correct. Otherwise, it's a disaster.

To reiterate: 1. you cannot assume a strategy is optimal based on random results only, this is a very flawed premise in a social game led by living people; 2. you cannot assume your strategy is optimal when your displayed certainty is contradicting itself.

This seems like a very intentional attempt to exploit the gap between self-perceptions and reality, that you absolutely know exists for every one of us, rather than an earnest attempt at understanding how those fears/ideals have manifested this game.

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

Enough of this. HURT: Replica i don't even care if this is vanity, Replica is scum.

[Chara]

Again, no. You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem, high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote. This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads. You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

what? of course you can. it's the entire conceit behind townhunting as a process.

and it's also just as possible to be more certain in one read than another than want to pursue that. i can be 100% certain in a townread and unsure of the rest of the playerlist.
that's just how reads work. are you not allowed to be confident in one read if you haven't completely solved the game yet?

[Farkran]

i'm more confident in sparing Hectic than Sujimichi or Sherlock.

Nonsense.

being confident in townreads =/= having the same confidence in scumreads or wanting to pursue them.
i don't like Farkran's angle here at all and i don't find it a contradiction in the first place. Replica said as much already about why they want to spare and you acknowledged that. i also can't conceive of what scum Replica would achieve by discrediting their own scumreads or themself, except as a way to lower responsibility for mislynches. but they aren't going for mislynches.

How can you even think someone can be SO distrustful in their scumreads and at the same time believing in their townreads hard enough to base their entire gamesolve on that? How is it not a contradiction? If your scumreads are shit-level of wrong, the chance that you are also wrong on your townreads rises dramatically. How is everyone failing to understand that? Having 2/11 odds to spare town means nothing - just look at statistics. Look at how many times players have been efficient enough to lynch scum d1 or d2. Random values are not suit for human-made decisions and one should never base a strategy on them - especially when the random-based EV is like ~7% higher. I haven't even run the math on them, i have no reason to assume Replica reported incorrect results even if he's scum - it's just a plain futile motive to push for a catastrophical failure in favor of scum.

pedit:

i find the denial of hammering the spare to be still significant, along with the followup

. Sujimichi is not a bad choice either, but i'd rather be more sure than not with something like this, and it's similar with Sherlock. there's the possibility of scum making one big towny move, but i find Hectic being scum and making the decisions he has to be much less likely.

I don't know if the bolded is directed to me, but in case it is, it's a misrep. I explicitly said i would compromise on pretty much anything if i am the last active player 10 minutes from deadline.

[Chara]

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

[Hectic]

Farkran... why are you ignoring me...?
you said Sujimichi is naught but an IC to you...
if you are so confident on him... then why are you FIGHTING people rather than SPARING him...?

i think scum!Farkran could've possibly went overboard when describing Sujimichi earlier... and now he's ignoring me because he can't explain why he'd FIGHT over SPARING someone he considers an IC...
784
bye...

[Chara]

I don't know if the bolded is directed to me, but in case it is, it's a misrep. I explicitly said i would compromise on pretty much anything if i am the last active player 10 minutes from deadline.

i was talking about Hectic. but your jumping to your own defense on that is telling.

[Hectic]

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

in fact... you worded it like he's an IC who's gonna be SPARED/nightkilled...
why do you ever FIGHT someone over SPARING if you think that...?

[Farkran]

Again, no. You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem, high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote. This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads. You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

what? of course you can. it's the entire conceit behind townhunting as a process.

and it's also just as possible to be more certain in one read than another than want to pursue that. i can be 100% certain in a townread and unsure of the rest of the playerlist.
that's just how reads work. are you not allowed to be confident in one read if you haven't completely solved the game yet?

My point has nothing to do with what townhunt is about. My point is that one cannot simultaneously display godlike levels of certainty on his townreads and shitlevel of certainty on his scumreads. The gap is too high. This is what makes replica scummy, not the decision to spare over fight, or the decision to spare player X instead of player Y.

[Chara]

that too. if someone is locktown/an IC, the correct play is to spare them. otherwise they just get nightkilled.

[Replica]

LOL.

Not an argument, this is free shade.

It's a good thing there's two paragraphs that follow the introduction.

You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem,

high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads

so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote.This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the

immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads.

You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic.

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Please, PLEASE quote anywhere I have said I am confident in ANY of my reads, or even ANY of my townplay lmao

This whole paragraph doesn't even try to take into consideration what I just said. I explicitly outlined why sparing is better even if I am so bad as to be completely random:

My strategy is optimal to me precisely because I don't trust my reads

on two fronts. The first is that my statement that if we lynch, it should be later rather than sooner, and that if we spare, it should be sooner rather than later.

This is to leverage probability,

and is made even more explicit, in the context of me being bad at townreads in #379.

The second is that even if I am so bad that my reads might as well be random...3/4 spares wins me more games. There is absolutely no dependency or even displayed thinking that I am confident in my townreads but not my scumreads like you're trying to assert here.

You do try to tackle it here, but it's just circular:

3/4 spares wins you more games

when you are correct. Otherwise, it's a disaster.

To reiterate: 1. you cannot assume a strategy is optimal based on random results only, this is a very flawed premise in a social game led by living people; 2. you cannot assume your strategy is optimal when your displayed certainty is contradicting itself.

This response is akin to saying "A coin that flips heads 60% of the time doesn't mean that it's less likely to flip tails". 1 is what me/Amrun/Nacho have been talking all game, you've recognized the opinion difference as valid repeatedly. 2 is both circular and depends on the certainty existing to begin with, which it plainly doesn't.

[Farkran]

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

Yeah, sure. I'm being extra-careful to bring good arguments to the table, when everything i have been saying has mostly been shot down by the spare lovers for no reason at all, despite them being super certain of being correct on their townreads, but none wants to put any actual weight on their scumreads. This is true for Replica as it is for you and Psyche. And possibly hectic too. I probably need to sleep over it, but i'm honestly inclined to think we can find the full scumteam here, and two players being simply very wrong and pocketed so deep they cannot see the light of the sun.

[Farkran]

Farkran... why are you ignoring me...?
you said Sujimichi is naught but an IC to you...
if you are so confident on him... then why are you FIGHTING people rather than SPARING him...?

i think scum!Farkran could've possibly went overboard when describing Sujimichi earlier... and now he's ignoring me because he can't explain why he'd FIGHT over SPARING someone he considers an IC...
784
bye...

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

in fact... you worded it like he's an IC who's gonna be SPARED/nightkilled...
why do you ever FIGHT someone over SPARING if you think that...?