Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[RCEnigma]

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

• 2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)
  
• Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)
  
• Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)

Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?

I can only speak for 2058 where scums power was traitor neighbor, informed, and I forget the other two. Goons maybe.

[RCEnigma]

Which isn't a lot of scum power but scum benefits from day 3 potentially being Mylo.

[RCEnigma]

Cool. Teacher where are you at reads wise currently?

Then again for both worlds where I flip town/flip scum.

After that I have something I want to run by you and get your opinion on.

[teacher]

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

• 2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)
  
• Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)
  
• Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)

Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?

Nope. Ico could be traitor and neighborize for scum says otherwise.

1. You realize scum!Ico lessens the power of town, making 9-4 even more unlikely right?

2. scum!neighborizer does not imply traitor with the strength you are suggesting at all. Using the same data-set, there are 9.5 games with scum neighborizers in them (one has a one-shot, so counting as 1/2). Only 1 has a traitor (11%). And that game is 10-3, against a voyeur+backup, tracker, and 2-shot commuter.

[teacher]

Cool. Teacher where are you at reads wise currently?

Then again for both worlds where I flip town/flip scum.

After that I have something I want to run by you and get your opinion on.

I havent played out your flip, and dont have time to atm. I will respond to that one later tonight, after a drive.

Reads:
Locktown: Ico, Bella
Strong town: skit-Flopz
Lean town: RCE
1 scum, 1 town: Ari-Math
open to pairings including: Shos, xtomx

[teacher]

I suppose that list is you town, so will take the time to play out scum!you

[teacher]

scum!you is scum!ari imo

[RCEnigma]

Ah you have Ari/math split. What I wanted to run by you was a world where math/Ari is TvT which would have made the Skitter wagon midday towndriven but saudade was a part of that so it doesn't hold weight. Skitter getting wagoned there would have meant scum was passing up on pushing both RC and Ari as mislynches.

I think the net takeaway though is that math/myself weren't targeted with the goal of pushing a mislynch.

[teacher]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC) or uni-town reads and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

[MathBlade]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC) or uni-town reads and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

[teacher]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)

or uni-town reads

and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

You seem to have difficulty reading.

[RCEnigma]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC) or uni-town reads and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

I thought he would be too. Can't really explain why I was the only push there. Scum locked in their stances I'd assume.

[MathBlade]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)

or uni-town reads

and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

You seem to have difficulty reading.

You seem to have difficulty explaining why scum kill me or RCE over RC.

Universal townread doesn’t compare. When it matched the evidence it made sense. Now it doesn’t.

[shos]

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

• 2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)
  
• Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)
  
• Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)

Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

• 2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)
  
• Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)
  
• Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)

Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?

Nope. Ico could be traitor and neighborize for scum says otherwise.

2+1 traitor?

[teacher]

An RC lynch was never happening.

You may be right. I really did expect it based on him requesting the BoP and some players comments sticking with me, but I went back to do the work, and it looks like the board was actually fairly divided on whether town!duck meant lynch RC.

Player	RC position EoD1
Math	lukewarm lynch 2821 2846
RCE	very hard lynch
Ari	very against lynch
Ico	very against lynch 2992
plum	slightly against lynch 2462
Bella	nothing explicit
xtomx	nothing explicit, but animosity known
flopz	no explicit positioning (later open to it 3334)
teacher	public position hard lynch (but also TvT and lynch Ari) 2930
skit	hard lynch 3098
tris	no explicit positioning

Thats actually quite interesting.

[teacher]

2+1 traitor?

But then I return to the motives for scum!Ico to crumb and claim protective D2 after a no-kill. Nope, at least not for him.

In the abstract, sure, scum could have a traitor here in a 10-3 setup. But then we should not be associative hunting. (I dont think neighborizer implies traitor. I think neighborization can be a useful skill for scum, regardless traitor.)

[shos]

I don't think ico is scum at all right now

[teacher]

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)

or uni-town reads

and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

You seem to have difficulty reading.

You seem to have difficulty explaining why scum kill me or RCE over RC.

Universal townread doesn’t compare. When it matched the evidence it made sense. Now it doesn’t.

You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:

• Scum targeted you
  
• Scum targeted RCE
  
• Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:

• RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
  
• RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
  
• you and RCE were universal townreads.
  
• if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari

We have a disconnect. I see your side of it. You just cant see mine. Im not going to try again.



I get you are, for you. But we differ in that.

[teacher]

Last line was clearly a drafting error.

@Math, in addition to the ari town case, if youd like to convince me, find me an RCE partner that makes good sense that isnt me, since that one isnt selling me. (obviously, I would think Ari, but you dont).

[shos]

You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:
Scum targeted you
Scum targeted RCE
Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:
RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
you and RCE were universal townreads.
if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari

OK I read your post and I don't understand this.
1. RCE was a universal townread - ergo, scum would be more than happy to use him to make the kill as odds are he'll get away with it.
2. ....that's it, RC is completely irrelevant

Why would you say that is <40% to happen? there are three scums most likely - one of them has to do the kill. Trisaudade slot would be an option indeed with its multitasking factor, but if RCE is widely townread and Trisaudade isn't (I assume this, considering that we DID lynch that slot yesterday), it is far less dangerous.

[teacher]

You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:
Scum targeted you
Scum targeted RCE
Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:
RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
you and RCE were universal townreads.
if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari

OK I read your post and I don't understand this.
1. RCE was a universal townread - ergo, scum would be more than happy to use him to make the kill as odds are he'll get away with it.
2. ....that's it, RC is completely irrelevant

Why would you say that is <40% to happen? there are three scums most likely - one of them has to do the kill. Trisaudade slot would be an option indeed with its multitasking factor, but if RCE is widely townread and Trisaudade isn't (I assume this, considering that we DID lynch that slot yesterday), it is far less dangerous.

So the abstract is 33% for each, ya?

I believe both protective claims, and think they were good targets - meaning I do think either math or rce could reasonably have been targeted if town.

I do not think Town!rc is a significantly better kill target than either of town!them, because he is mislynchable and dividing town.

*****
Trying another way, you question assumes RCE scum. Sure, there’s a decent chance he does the kill if scum (esp if strongman, and more likely than tris who Would be in the investigative pool). But I can’t get to the assumption, and I can’t use the standard jk inference because there’s a third situation where the jk isn’t relevNt.

[teacher]

vla weekend btw, about to drive

[teacher]

I think the net takeaway though is that math/myself weren't targeted with the goal of pushing a mislynch.

I dunno, given both your positions on RC, it might have allowed more of a push? I think math was the first one to come in with that (certainly one of the early voices, and had said it before I managed to get on due to the delayed day start).

[Aristophanes]

I'm 20 pages behind and have no will to read them today. Like I've come to the thread 4 times and just can't for whatever reason.

Anything pressing that needs addressing? (Ooo I like how that flows!)

Or can I read up over the weekend where everyone is undoubtedly V/LA

[Iconeum]

Guys iz Ico here

I love allll ov you