Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Chara]

My point has nothing to do with what townhunt is about. My point is that one cannot simultaneously display godlike levels of certainty on his townreads and shitlevel of certainty on his scumreads. The gap is too high. This is what makes replica scummy, not the decision to spare over fight, or the decision to spare player X instead of player Y.

where did Replica say they had godlike certainty in their townreads?
my point is that you

can

be certain of townreads and not scumreads. i literally play like this often.

[Farkran]

I pressed submit accidentally, i wanted to reply to Hectic but i can't keep up with the pace and i hate it being this close to deadline because the current gamestate does not make any sense. Bear with me hectic, i'm going to answer you in a short while

[Replica]

You have a bucket of balls.

You have two options:

1) You can draw 4 balls, and they have a 30% chance of being all black. You win if they are.
2) You can draw 6 balls, and they have a 20% chance of containing two that are white. You win if they are.

You pick 1. "Wow, are you that confident in being able to identify the balls that are black by touch?"

[Replica]

The analogy between touching a ball to tell its color and scumhunting is obviously not a good analogy.

I'm trying to highlight the general statistical ideas here which is that

placing a bet and having someone assert that you must be very sure you have a way to win it if you're picking that one over the one with the lower EV is absolutely absurd

[Farkran]

Farkran... why are you ignoring me...?
you said Sujimichi is naught but an IC to you...
if you are so confident on him... then why are you FIGHTING people rather than SPARING him...?

i think scum!Farkran could've possibly went overboard when describing Sujimichi earlier... and now he's ignoring me because he can't explain why he'd FIGHT over SPARING someone he considers an IC...
784
bye...

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

in fact... you worded it like he's an IC who's gonna be SPARED/nightkilled...
why do you ever FIGHT someone over SPARING if you think that...?

I am not ignoring you. I do think Sujimichi is pretty much IC for that townslip in the other game, but i also think using this day to spare him is a waste. As i said somewhere earlier in my ISO, spared players are not going to live forever. Sujimichi is just going to be killed exactly the night after we enter New Home. Mafia does not lose the ability to nightkill in the second phase of the game. Why are renouncing a flip in favor of delaying the death of a town player? Because this is not about saving sujimichi, or any other conftown we may find along the road. Unless we can spare EXACTLY 4 TOWN PLAYERS, every other scenario implies the removal of two players chosen by the mafia among the unspared pool, then the night kills just restart. The whole sparing route, unless we find exactly 4 town players, is bad.

[Replica]

As much as I hate spamming, for emphasis, since neither Farkran nor Chara acknowledged this:

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic.

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic.

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic.

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic.

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

[Sujimichi]

I am somewhat concerned that we will not reach a decision prior to the deadline as there is not only a lack of consensus on whether to Spare or Fight, but there is a lack of consensus on which player to Spare if we Spare, or which player to Fight if we Fight. When I am able to (in about an hour) I will say more, but I wanted to make this statement before then as we are quickly approaching the less than 24-hour mark until deadline expiration.

I as said above, I am concerned about reaching consensus despite Replica's assertion otherwise, and I do not want to Fight on a compromise. I originally did not want to Spare myself, as I would rather have Spared someone that I town read (Hectic as previously stated). However, also as I have stated, I have re-evaluated this stance given the extent of town reads (for whatever the reason) and the fact that I am unlikely to secure a Fight on either of my preferred players (Amrun and Farkran). Thus, as stated, I would like to be Spared today. For those of you hesitant to Spare me due to a town read you deem not significant enough, please let that go. As we have stated should be done prior to Sparing so that it may not be claimed later,

I am the Friendly Neighbor.

I believe that we have derived good content from the interactions today (at least from most of the players), enough so that we should be able to look back on this in later phases. Now that you know my alignment for certain, you can also review said interactions with that in mind.

I have town reads on SherlockHolmes, Hectic, Chara, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Replica. These are listed in order of confidence.

I have scum reads on Amrun, Farkran, and to a lesser extent Nachomamma8. These are also listed in order of confidence.

The remainder of players I do not have a significant read on.

I know that, despite my now being confirmed as Town, my reads are not any more likely to be accurate; however, you do know that I am telling you the truth when you read them. I feel this is the best course of action at current, so my apologies for those who disagree with me.

[Chara]

Yeah, sure. I'm being extra-careful to bring good arguments to the table, when everything i have been saying has mostly been shot down by the spare lovers for no reason at all, despite them being super certain of being correct on their townreads, but none wants to put any actual weight on their scumreads. This is true for Replica as it is for you and Psyche. And possibly hectic too. I probably need to sleep over it, but i'm honestly inclined to think we can find the full scumteam here, and two players being simply very wrong and pocketed so deep they cannot see the light of the sun.

it's been pointed out that Replica does not have any "godlike certainty" in their scumreads, but i also don't understand what is so impossible about townhunting in this way.

i also would disagree with no reasons being given. if you are town and actually convinced of this, or that everyone who wants to spare is playing badly, i would suggest reconsidering the thought that everyone who disagrees with you must be wrong or scum. i am telling you that it is very possible to be confident in townreads and not in scumreads.
but i am hoping you're just scum.

and again, Replica never said they were a god of townhunting. they said they had an ego. that in itself puts them ahead of players who are not aware of that bias.

[Psyche]

I remain sure that we can find 4 town players given this D1.

[Chara]

Replica: i did see that.

pedit: it's possible. i would not say i want to base those four on only this day 1, but i am confident in the townreads i have currently.

[Chara]

Unless we can spare EXACTLY 4 TOWN PLAYERS, every other scenario implies the removal of two players chosen by the mafia among the unspared pool, then the night kills just restart. The whole sparing route, unless we find exactly 4 town players, is bad.

did you miss the town-directed nightkill we get at two spares, and that the mafia are forced to remove one of their own if they aren't among a 3-spare scenario?

[Psyche]

I know I'm biased though. I am biased because I don't think I'm good at scumhunting at all. We can still play PoE with our townreads I guess. The more I think about it, the more I shouldn't care one way or the other whether we commit to sparing. Very little time to consolidate on a decent lynch candidate though.

[Psyche]

A big part of me wishes I could just skip to end and see if I'm right. But this is part of the game tooo yes i know ugh shut up

[Farkran]

You have a bucket of balls.

You have two options:

1) You can draw 4 balls, and they have a 30% chance of being all black. You win if they are.
2) You can draw 6 balls, and they have a 20% chance of containing two that are white. You win if they are.

You pick 1. "Wow, are you that confident in being able to identify the balls that are black by touch?"

As much as i love being compared to a ball in a bucket, this does not and will never apply to a social game made by living, sentient beings. I said multiple times that the EV are comparable - the wrong premises are that 1. Probability alone is not a good meter to discern an optimal strategy; 2. the risk/benefit ratio is horribly high.

I will give you a counter-example:
1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 30% chance of being all black. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 1 million if they aren't.
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have 20% chance of containing two that are white. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 2 dollars if they aren't.

Now tell me you still pick option 1.

[Farkran]

I am the Friendly Neighbor.

Awesome - that's one less conftown we can put in the sparing pool. Our chances to win are rising by the minute.

Yeah, i'm being sarcastic. Perhaps a bit too much. I am salty about this whole setup spec debate.

Eh, yeah. Sorry suji, it's not even your fault. I think i have crossed the line.

[Chara]

we shouldn't take a town spare because they'll just die later?

and Sujimichi, i don't know if claiming when you did is optimal. but i'm not upset about it or anything like that.

pedit: but you didn't even want to put someone who you thought was conftown in the sparing pool.

[Amrun]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

[Replica]

As much as i love being compared to a ball in a bucket, this does not and will never apply to a social game made by living, sentient beings. I said multiple times that the EV are comparable - the wrong premises are that 1. Probability alone is not a good meter to discern an optimal strategy; 2. the risk/benefit ratio is horribly high.

I will give you a counter-example:
1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 30% chance of being all black. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 1 million if they aren't.
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have 20% chance of containing two that are white. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 2 dollars if they aren't.

Now tell me you still pick option 1.

I didn't include the betting terms to keep it simple. Since you insist, the numbers actually do matter here.

We're wagering to try to win a single game, keeping hold of the single dollar in our hand, not risking our savings: The outcome of the game is the only thing at stake.

1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 27% chance of being all black. You win if they are. If they aren't, you have one chance to draw a white ball at 20% odds.*
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have a 36% chance of containing two that are white. If they aren't, you lose immediately.

*This simplifies to a 41.6% chance

You pick 1. Does this imply that you have a method to ensure they are all black?

[Chara]

why are you upset when you didn't want to spare today in the first place? you implied we may as well not spare at all.

[Chara]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

this post is delightfully asynchronic.

am i really the only one who thinks Hectic as scum who denied his spare earlier is obscenely unlikely?

also, nothing to do with the game, but i'd like to ask references to me be it/its, or they/them if you're uncomfortable with that. (this isn't just to Amrun, don't worry)

[Replica]

There's a little bit more numbers actually, that was rushed, but the point is to outline the principle and not be a pedantic asshole.

Your principle is wrong, the assumptions that underlie it (That I must have a method for black) are wrong, and flooding it with a statistics thesis that boils down to "Literally the safest way to play the game if you don't have confidence in your play whatsoever is the one given by RNG" is begging to have everyone check out of the game.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

...and it's when you find yourself in deep agreement with a player who has just changed her read of you to a scumread, that you know you need to take a break.

Seriously, i don't even know what to say anymore. How many is suji's spare wagon now?

[Amrun]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

this post is delightfully asynchronic.

am i really the only one who thinks Hectic as scum who denied his spare earlier is obscenely unlikely?

also, nothing to do with the game, but i'd like to ask references to me be it/its, or they/them if you're uncomfortable with that. (this isn't just to Amrun, don't worry)

I also think Hectic is town. Higher than the other two is a bit odd IMO. But functionally... I mean I townread him, so.

Also soooooo sorry about the pronouns and I’ll probably fuck up again but not on purpose.

[Chara]

i'm lost on the gambling odds.
i think Farkran is scum for reasons besides disagreeing about optimal strategy, and rather not wanting to spare someone he considers an IC (but then being upset that the FN claimed), along with the reliance on being logically right and the weirdness to the Replica read in general.

pedit: no problem at all, Amrun. as long as you try i appreciate it.

[Farkran]

i'm lost on the gambling odds.
i think Farkran is scum for reasons besides disagreeing about optimal strategy, and rather not wanting to spare someone he considers an IC (but then being upset that the FN claimed), along with the reliance on being logically right and the weirdness to the Replica read in general.

pedit: no problem at all, Amrun. as long as you try i appreciate it.

I am being upset that a player who was already IC to me is ALSO the FN, but feel free to keep up with the gratuitous shade.