Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Chara]

ah, i misunderstood that.
still, i don't see why you would want the FN to spare later but not to spare Suji now (before you knew they were the same).

[Farkran]

As much as i love being compared to a ball in a bucket, this does not and will never apply to a social game made by living, sentient beings. I said multiple times that the EV are comparable - the wrong premises are that 1. Probability alone is not a good meter to discern an optimal strategy; 2. the risk/benefit ratio is horribly high.

I will give you a counter-example:
1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 30% chance of being all black. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 1 million if they aren't.
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have 20% chance of containing two that are white. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 2 dollars if they aren't.

Now tell me you still pick option 1.

I didn't include the betting terms to keep it simple. Since you insist, the numbers actually do matter here.

We're wagering to try to win a single game, keeping hold of the single dollar in our hand, not risking our savings: The outcome of the game is the only thing at stake.

1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 27% chance of being all black. You win if they are. If they aren't, you have one chance to draw a white ball at 20% odds.*
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have a 36% chance of containing two that are white. If they aren't, you lose immediately.

*This simplifies to a 41.6% chance

You pick 1. Does this imply that you have a method to ensure they are all black?

No, but your example implies that i have no means other than RNG to determine if they are all black. Or better yet, that i have no means to raise my odds of catching the two white balls in the other scenario.

Also, my example is only worth if you think the outcome of this game is important to you (hence why i exaggerated it by saying 1 million dollars - obviously it has nothing to do with our irl savings). If the outcome of the game has no importance to you, that's another pair of shoes - but again, given your introduction as a "fiercely competitive, etc" player, i don't believe this is the case. I just think you are scum.

I skipped at least half of the posts in the last two pages though, because i honestly can't keep up with the pace and i am salty because i am being cornered for what is to me the best course of actions to take in this game. This discussion has probably no more beneficial points to bring to the table, so, let me ask again:

How many left to spare Suji?

[Replica]

Agree, gambling odds are a sideshow, the imprecision/reductions of the reasoning causing more confusion than needed. TL:DR: Sparing over lynching has a higher town win % in an RNG machine. This is directly analogous to casino games. Betting on higher EVs doesn't imply you believe yourself especially skilled at the game of choice.

Awful part was the working backwards and the conflating ego/weaknesses with the requirement that I must view them as positives and that acknowledging my weaknesses and working on them is a scumtell.

It's aiming to exploit the existence of a gap between my fears/ideals and my reality, that I am neither the player of my dreams nor one ruled by my worst traits, and presupposing its existence is scum. It's not aiming to investigate or ponder what it means, what dilemmas I face when playing, or how I choose to handle these strengths and weaknesses.

[Farkran]

ah, i misunderstood that.
still, i don't see why you would want the FN to spare later but not to spare Suji now (before you knew they were the same).

I never said i would spare the FN anyways, i believe i explicity stated i would never spare anyone. However, having 3 ICs (or at least two ICs and a significantly high townread in the sherlock slot) is way better than having only two because the FN overlaps with suji. I did explain how we would need many more ICs than we have days to spare them, because of the existence of night kills.

[Replica]

No, but your example implies that i have no means other than RNG to determine if they are all black. Or better yet, that i have no means to raise my odds of catching the two white balls in the other scenario.

Hmmmm, so if you're confident you means to shift the odds in your favor, you should play to that one...If you aren't confident you have those means, I wonder what you should do haha?[/quote]

NoAlso, my example is only worth if you think the outcome of this game is important to you (hence why i exaggerated it by saying 1 million dollars - obviously it has nothing to do with our irl savings). If the outcome of the game has no importance to you, that's another pair of shoes - but again, given your introduction as a "fiercely competitive, etc" player, i don't believe this is the case. I just think you are scum.

Ah yeah, losing the game by sparing is very different than losing the game by mislynches. In one I lose the game. In the other I lose the game. These are very different outcomes. One of these has a stastistical failsafe to my advantage, but that doesn't matter haha, I can lose the game both ways so I can safely ignore it.

[Psyche]

I am the Friendly Neighbor.

Awesome - that's one less conftown we can put in the sparing pool. Our chances to win are rising by the minute.

Yeah, i'm being sarcastic. Perhaps a bit too much. I am salty about this whole setup spec debate.

Eh, yeah. Sorry suji, it's not even your fault. I think i have crossed the line.

aw what bad luck

[Farkran]

Agree, gambling odds are a sideshow, the imprecision/reductions of the reasoning causing more confusion than needed. TL:DR: Sparing over lynching has a higher town win % in an RNG machine. This is directly analogous to casino games. Betting on higher EVs doesn't imply you believe yourself especially skilled at the game of choice.

Awful part was the working backwards and the conflating ego/weaknesses with the requirement that I must view them as positives and that acknowledging my weaknesses and working on them is a scumtell.

It's aiming to exploit the existence of a gap between my fears/ideals and my reality, that I am neither the player of my dreams nor one ruled by my worst traits, and presupposing its existence is scum. It's not aiming to investigate or ponder what it means, what dilemmas I face when playing, or how I choose to handle these strengths and weaknesses.

The EV is only marginally higher, and besides, in a game of roulette you cannot improve your chances to guess the next number correct based on your knowledge of the previously rolled number. In mafia, you can.

As for the rest of my argument, i still think there is no way you can place THAT much certainty on your townreads while simultaneously being THAT much afraid that you are wrong on your scumreads. It just doesn't hold up. The gap is too high. And this is a scumtell, because getting one spare wrong is way worse than getting one (or even a couple) fight wrong.

I am tired. I will parse a votecount on suji by myself. Assuming we spare him, independently of my contribution, what are we going to do in the next days?

[Replica]

i still think there is no way you can place THAT much certainty on your townreads

It is almost like

the point of #827

is that the logical proposition "If someone bets on a game with a higher random EV, they must be more confident in their ability in that game" is FALSE

and has been pointed out REPEATEDLY

and you have directly ignored every evidence around that principle being wrong

I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do.

[Replica]

Well for starters we're getting at least one more spare in the next few days which is great in my book

[Farkran]

Spare Votecount 1.10

Sujimichi ----------------------------

(1)

Psyche

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

L-1 i think

[Chara]

i would prefer to wait on ending the day/

[Replica]

This is my tl;dr about the stupid stats.

Agree, gambling odds are a sideshow, the imprecision/reductions of the reasoning causing more confusion than needed. TL:DR: Sparing over lynching has a higher town win % in an RNG machine. This is directly analogous to casino games.

Betting on higher EVs doesn't imply you believe yourself especially skilled at the game of choice.

The EV is only marginally higher, and besides, in a game of roulette you cannot improve your chances to guess the next number correct based on your knowledge of the previously rolled number. In mafia, you can.

The point of contention between us isn't the EVs. Farkran completely ignores the part in bold, which is actually what his argument is about, and instead keeps trying to restart the "But is the RNG really like practical mafia?" debate because it's confounding garbage no one wants to read.

In what world does a Farkran, who

recognizes the EVs

, and whose entire point instead is that

I must believe something about my skill outside them

, completely ignore the part that is actually relevant to why he supposedly thinks I'm scum and keeps trying to circle back to whether or not the EVs are practical

[Replica]

Psyche is currently on Sherlock, either way we have time.

[Farkran]

is that the logical proposition "If someone bets on a game with a higher random EV, they must be more confident in their ability in that game" is FALSE

Yes, that is false, and it's also not the point of my argument.

The points of my argument are that nobody should bet on a mafia game assuming that it is comparable to a game of roulette or dices. If anything, it's more comparable to a game of poker - guess what, the player with the strongest hand is never systematically the one who wins the match. Therefore, you should not assume your (or other people's) reads have random EVs. You should take into account many more factors, and that is where the premise of "i am bad at doing reads" conflicts with "i think i am going to win this game by choosing the mathematically optimal strategy". Besides, the risk/benefit ratio does not even make it optimal from a mathematical standpoint either, because sparing scum is way worse than fighting town. This is the last time i repeat myself:

The EV is only marginally higher, and besides, in a game of roulette you cannot improve your chances to guess the next number correct based on your knowledge of the previously rolled number. In mafia, you can.

[ndr: that is, unless you remove that ability on purpose by renouncing information for having a 7% higher EV on a non-random based game]

Now i want to disengage from this because it's no longer useful. I will only answer further questions if asked by different people and if they are relevant to winning this game rather than just asserting who has the better logic -which is often not indicative of scumminess, depends case by case - in this case, i still believe Replica is using math to conceal his scum agenda where he will probably insert his scum partner in the spare pool one of the next days.

That being said, if i counted Psyche wrong, it's L-2. But i think Psyche is more than willing to spare suji if everyone else agrees. Since even the last standing fight promoters (tu quoque, amrun) have given up on trying, and given that sujimichi is now pretty much a true, almost modconfirmed IC, i don't see anything left to do for me but to accept it. I too would love to wait for nacho and almidia to give their feedback on the current situation.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

Actually, before i go to bed (2 am), i have a question for you, amrun.

Since you gave up pushing for a fight resolution, i assume you are going to work with pre-flip associatives in this game. If i am scum, who am i partner with? If Chara is scum, who is it partner with?

[Replica]

Man, I wonder why it is you're so desperate to get out of this and keep trying to switch the ground to discussion over EV vs. human play.

This is so fundamentally different than what you were saying earlier.

Earlier, you acknowledged the strategies were different but my perspective valid.

Later, you used the proposition you now acknowledge as false to make the case that I

absolutely must

place confidence in my townreads. This doubled with postulations about how it'd interact with my personality.

Proposition got proven wrong, quotes reinforced that I absolutely do not place confidence in my townreads, and you're back to square one where you're stuck saying "Yeah but other factors make this bad" and talking about the difference in practicality/application, no longer talking about my behavior or beliefs which was the crucial point in your scumread on me. Saying "Replica town should put more faith in reads over EVs and play accordingly and is scum for not doing so" is a huge walkback from "Replica must and absolutely does put more faith into reads and is scum for not having it"

[Replica]

I have gotten thoroughly smashed, Replica is still scum, and obviously I would have been very gungho about lynching them, but I no longer have any interest in engaging or discussing this unless anyone asks me a direct question.

No, my points were never what I'm on the record for. Thank you for your time.

[Sujimichi]

and Sujimichi, i don't know if claiming when you did is optimal. but i'm not upset about it or anything like that.

I apologize. As I said, it's what I felt was best at the time given the looming deadline and player's professed stances at the time. I would have preferred Sparing another town read or Fighting Amrun (to a lesser extent Farkran). However, I became more certain that I was likely the kill tonight and so my rationale for sparing another town read would have been for naught, and I do not believe either Amrun (or Farkran) were going to be a consensus Fight for today.

Most of the recent content between Farkran and Replica has been a non-productive rehashing of the debate between Sparing and Fighting (though more in-depth in analysis) and neither is likely to convince the other they are right, so I do not feel like we have been deprived of much in that regard.

[Replica]

Most of the recent content between Farkran and Replica has been a non-productive rehashing of the debate between Sparing and Fighting (though more in-depth in analysis)

Congratulations, you arrived at exactly where Farkran wanted you to be at.

[Replica]

I get that it's incomprehensible garbage but it's very much by design; that conversation is not about whether or not sparing is best. The conversation is about whether or not I'm being deceptive about how confident I am in my reads, and Farkran asserting that I am scum for it. The switch to make it unreadable was intentional.

[Sujimichi]

I do not believe I have as I do not agree with him with regard to Sparing. Perhaps I misunderstood his intention, as I also do not believe you are being deceptive in regard to your reads.

[Sujimichi]

I do not believe I have as I do not agree with him with regard to Sparing. Perhaps I misunderstood his intention, as I also do not believe you are being deceptive in regard to your reads.

[SherlockHolmes]

What the fuck happened while I was gone?

Suji why did you out?

[Replica]

Again, that conversation is not about whether or not sparing is best: Farkran's choice to ignore the statements on my behavior and respond strictly by introducing mechanical contentions was done to get out of the commitments he made earlier.

Either way, this is probably about the right time for me to stop. The less accessible it gets the worse, and focusing on a scumread isn't a good strategy in this game.

[Sujimichi]

What the fuck happened while I was gone?

Suji why did you out?

I believe I have explained my rationale quite sufficiently.