Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[SherlockHolmes]

I’m assuming suji is not scum, if they are then I don’t want to hammer a spare if that’s where we’re at until we see if there’s a CC. I think it was almost uncertainty optimal to our and anyone pushing the predominantly sparing route is scummy.

I also think I know who replica’s main is based on their self-meta post and would encourage people to take them with a pinch of salt at least. However, I would very tentatively lean town there, I think.

[SherlockHolmes]

What the fuck happened while I was gone?

Suji why did you out?

I believe I have explained my rationale quite sufficiently.

Can you just recap or point to the most relevant bit because I’m going to sleep in all of two seconds.

[Sujimichi]

I as said above, I am concerned about reaching consensus despite Replica's assertion otherwise, and I do not want to Fight on a compromise. I originally did not want to Spare myself, as I would rather have Spared someone that I town read (Hectic as previously stated). However, also as I have stated, I have re-evaluated this stance given the extent of town reads (for whatever the reason) and the fact that I am unlikely to secure a Fight on either of my preferred players (Amrun and Farkran). Thus, as stated, I would like to be Spared today. For those of you hesitant to Spare me due to a town read you deem not significant enough, please let that go. As we have stated should be done prior to Sparing so that it may not be claimed later, I am the Friendly Neighbor.

I apologize. As I said, it's what I felt was best at the time given the looming deadline and player's professed stances at the time. I would have preferred Sparing another town read or Fighting Amrun (to a lesser extent Farkran). However, I became more certain that I was likely the kill tonight and so my rationale for sparing another town read would have been for naught, and I do not believe either Amrun (or Farkran) were going to be a consensus Fight for today.

[SherlockHolmes]

Okay, we spare suji if no CC. But this is a terrible plan because we get no new information whereas scum get a shitload, and now analysis tomorrow will have to be done through the WIFOMY visor that is NKA rather than looking at people’s stances on the wagons and pushes.

[SherlockHolmes]

I’m going to sleep now, I’ll be around to hammer the suji spare if needed.

[Sujimichi]

Okay, we spare suji if no CC. But this is a terrible plan because we get no new information whereas scum get a shitload, and now analysis tomorrow will have to be done through the WIFOMY visor that is NKA rather than looking at people’s stances on the wagons and pushes.

There have been plenty of voting, stances, and information given today. I am somewhat concerned with your "the sky is falling" attitude at the moment.

[Sujimichi]

Okay, we spare suji if no CC.

This comment in particular does not make sense to me. I was at the point of being mostly read as town when I claimed for the reasons that I stated, so why would I claim a role that I am not in an Open game?

[Farkran]

Well, i'm not going to let go if you don't, at least not if you use my disengagement to keep casting shade towards me by misrepping, misunderstanding or twisting my words on purpose.

Man, I wonder why it is you're so desperate to get out of this and keep trying to switch the ground to discussion over EV vs. human play.

I am not desperate to get out of this, i am preventing you to push your narrative to validate your future "townreads", and trying to get back to scumhunt after we have been arguing for like 3 pages now without any improvement in the situation.

This is so fundamentally different than what you were saying earlier.

No, it's one and the same.

Earlier, you acknowledged the strategies were different but my perspective valid.

Later, you used the proposition you now acknowledge as false to make the case that I

absolutely must

place confidence in my townreads. This doubled with postulations about how it'd interact with my personality.

Proposition got proven wrong, quotes reinforced that I absolutely do not place confidence in my townreads, and you're back to square one where you're stuck saying "Yeah but other factors make this bad" and talking about the difference in practicality/application, no longer talking about my behavior or beliefs which was the crucial point in your scumread on me. Saying "Replica town should put more faith in reads over EVs and play accordingly and is scum for not doing so" is a huge walkback from "Replica must and absolutely does put more faith into reads and is scum for not having it"

It is you who are trying to separate EV calculations from read reliability and players' approach to said reliability. In fact, they aren't. A mafia game is composed of mathematical, statistical, psycho/sociological analysis, all things put together. I'll explain more in-detail.

1) You MAY use math to identify a route which would produce better results, but most of the times, purely mathematical EVs are immediately shot down by the review teams, because it would be pointless to create a game with a setup so broken that it could fail to RNG votes. Say you are in a game with 10 scum, 10 masons and 1 VT. Town wins by lynching ONE scum. This is a broken and stupidly trivial example of a game where you can use pure math to achieve victory because the town EV is so high that you don't need to care for other elements.

2) As i said, the vastest majority of games are created with balanced EV on purpose, usually slightly in favor of town (55 town vs 45 mafia is close to standard). Have you ever seen any mafiascum player choosing to -only- random lynch because he has ~10% higher EV? I doubt you have. Therefore, i and all players, and by extension you, are expected to play with more than just math.

Here is where i bring out the fact that you cannot possibly tell me you expect you trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to nail 3 or 4 town spares in a row when simultaneously you DO NOT trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to scumread properly. This is completely inconsistent and illogical, which is what led me to think you are hiding a scum agenda behind math, where math only gives you ~7% higher EV

- and i haven't even started talking about the risk/benefit ratio.

Had you told me that by sparing, town wins 94% of the times whereas fighting wins only 22% of the times, no shit man, i would follow you with my blind eyes (assuming the calculations were correct, of course).

3) Not only the 7% higher EV is a very negligible reward to renounce flip info on, but the risk involved in sparing scum is way, way higher than fighting town. Guess what, once again this is where math alone cannot justify this choice, because if you can get town to believe your narrative, you likely also assume a town leading position where you can push your partner as a spare. This is one more motive for me to scumlean any spare-pushers to begin with, but town can be wrong and there couldn't be 7 scum in the playerlist - but this is even more true when said sparepusher claims he doesn't have faith in the players' (and by extension, his own) scumreads while STILL being convinced the townreads will be foolproof and will lead town to better results than, you know, accumulating info with each of their lynches.

This is for the town to read, not for Replica in particular. Now i am going to bed no matter what because it's almost 3 AM and as much as i do not want to lose this game i'm not going to forfeit more than a couple sleep hours over it.

[Replica]

Here is where i bring out the fact that you cannot possibly tell me you expect you trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to nail 3 or 4 town spares in a row when simultaneously you DO NOT trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to scumread properly. This is completely inconsistent and illogical, which is what led me to think you are hiding a scum agenda behind math, where math only gives you ~7% higher EV

I'm glad you bolded this and am more than happy to let it speak for itself.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll catch up with a laptop tonight - will hammer the spare after I catch up and provide thoughts.

[Nachomamma8]

It's unfortunate we nailed the FN today, but I also feel the day is finally heavy/interesting enough where we can actually figure some shit out.

[Replica]

It is INCONSISTENT and ILLOGICAL that you would advocate the strategy with a higher town EV when you DON'T trust the town to have better than random reads.

Oh howdy Nacho welcome back.

[Replica]

I've made my point; somebody help me get my mind on something else.

Where I'm at is Sujimichi/Sherlock/Chara town, good chance of Hectic and then Alim being in there, Chemist/Amrun next up, then Farkrun/Psyche/Nacho holding the scum.

Is there anyone who wants to talk about some of these/point me somewhere of interest to them? Right now personally I really just want more from Alim/Chemist/Nacho.

[Sujimichi]

I would like your view on Chemist1422 and Amrun specifically. Chemist1422, as I said, is fairly null for me and Amrun is my strongest read for Mafia.

[alimdia]

I got a prod, reading through now

[Replica]

Looking primarily at what you've said on Amrun, I don't agree with the read. There seem to be a few points of contention, but the ones that stick out to me are 1) Amrun's push when you entered the game, and a bit of the waffle between you/Asriel 2) Her defense/townread of Nacho.

It's easier for me to start from the second.

Spoiler: Quotes

I don’t scumread you for A [Posting only as necessary]. I scumread you for B. [Tone/Buddying Nacho] A was a response to alimdia, whose response to me did not make sense. Also, making quiet but infrequent content posts is NOT the same thing as not reading the game and then catching up.

And yet, you did B as well.

No I didn’t. Nacho literally wrote me a poem to summon me, so, clearly we know each other. In sign up thread I joined to play with nacho, explicitly.

This exchange and explanation to me seems very plausible from Amrun's viewpoint. They clearly have a history and friendship; Amrun is right when she says later that two people can do the same thing and only have one be scummy. Mafia is a lot about expectations: The mutual respect and history Amrun/Nacho have is something to be leveraged when she flips town; her dearth of experience is also worth noting in that it means she knows the tropes of newer players well. In contrast, you had no history with Nacho, and it is very expected for newer scum to buddy those perceived as stronger. This doesn't mean that you

are

bad player new scum, but I don't think you can blame Amrun for starting there.

I think Amrun's townread of Nacho leaves a lot to be desired on explanations, but given their history and Amrun's clear and demonstrated desire to work with him I find it very plausible. Despite her lack of explanations, I think there are some deeper clues here, too: I thought Amrun's interrogation of me about potential alignment implications between Nacho/Hectic arose mainly out of a gut tone feeling I was scum, and so she reacted with the rapid fire questions, but I don't think that's all it was anymore. It seems like she really liked the Nacho read on Hectic period, and this is reinforced when she called me counter to it "busywork" later.

Your best summary probably comes from #559. Taking it step by step, I found her points on tone fine. We start with weak foundations, and tone is a common one people use (Including me! Though I mainly look for backhanded intent). Her rejection of meta is annoying and I'd say would probably be scummy to me if this came from a brand new player, but it's not. Instead, it's coming from someone with a long history of opinions on the value of meta and play. I really, REALLY disagree with her, but it's almost certainly her view (I haven't checked it, but lying about something like this in a game where players know you and your history is easily accessible is suicide). I didn't share her feeling of the importance of #489 until #576. What she said about you seeing that Farkran could be too tough of a fight, and searching for easier waters, is definitely possible,

especially

for someone like Amrun who seems to start with the bread and butter scum strategies for newer players and only builds outwards when they've proven themselves.

The only thing I'd say I don't like is the switch to Asriel, not wanting to let up and your contributions being better and so on. Her explanation much later that the extent of that improvement was just a perception that you "seemed less concerned about optics" isn't good but it's something I think I'd expect from her so far.

[Replica]

I dunno, you've got the answer for your tone: It's NAI or town. Amrun's holding a deck of cards that seems very dependent on tone, pressure, and capitalizing on very run-of-the-mill weak scumplay rather than anything fancy.

It could be you liking Nacho and logically liking the voteswitch, or it could be classic opportunistic voting and buddying the active players. It's easier for you when you know the answer, and I think Amrun's methodology isn't wellsuited to giving benefit of the doubt to so-called "classic" scummy behaviors.

[Sujimichi]

Thank you. I am not familiar with "classic scummy behaviors" but appreciate the viewpoint from a third-party. It does not currently change my read on her, however. Though, it gives me something to re-evaluate later if it is necessary.

[Replica]

Chemist just like, needs to do something. His reads are plausible but there's so little to them that of course they are.

I never liked or agreed with his lurker reads and was confused why he switched to Hectic, but I don't scumread them at all and I really just wish he'd come out swinging. Someone to spare, someone to scumread, not constantly promising something and then giving us like, 10 words that amount to "x seems town" every 3/4 days

[alimdia]

Skimmed through a lot, in the absence of a CC, would spare Suji

I'll... get help.

@almidia, can you help me understand what Chara said in his most recent posts?

I assume this is irrelevant now?

Alimdia is NOT v/la. I think we can flashwagon some content there.

I don’t really have a case but even though the slot has produced an OK amount of content, they managed not to comment on a lot of significant actions and goings on.

My PoE narrows and alimdia is firmly in it.

I was V/LA. I know you acknowledged that but I was also very busy this whole week. I had loads of content before activity skyrocketed through the roof in this game, so nice shade? Esp when Nacho is also V/LA but not getting the same shade.

[alimdia]

I'll have to compile proper thoughts at night.

[Psyche]

one underrated downside of sparing sujimichi is that he'll be gone and ill be all alone all alone

[popsofctown]

Cooking Show

[popsofctown]

Game Show

[popsofctown]

Opera scene that clearly references FFVI