White Flag - TM2020

[Dannflor]

from EC in response to you Cheeky:

A: Espeons final push was saying he preferred Hop to Dann. So that's BS. ((unsure what this is actually referring to -Dann))

B: What if I said lynch X -> Cheeky -> Dann? Would you be okay with that? Saying it "clears up teams" is BS because if you find Dann as town (which I, Dann, am I trying to make you realize at this point) then that clears up the teams just as well. You can't lynch in ever world. Implying I'm scummy for being discontent with you openly pushing for Dann's chain lynch is wild.

[Dannflor]

Can people talk to me on why they town read Dong?

[Dannflor]

Auro, Ank is asking you if there's anything she should look into specifically

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, can you go into specifically what your complete thoughts on Dong are?

[CheekyTeeky]

Dong is scummy but her hammer D1 didn't look SvS and the trajectories she's pushing seem futile, like Espeon.

A case could be made that she's stirring paranoia in the townreads but that still doesn't explain away her behaviour EOD1 looking like she didn't know NSGs alignment. I would prefer to lynch Turkey because his associatives which I talked about Day 2 are terrible.

[CheekyTeeky]

Sorry not her* they*

[CheekyTeeky]

Why does me town reading you feel slimy? Do you not think I should have such strong a town read?

I felt like you kept reinforcing me as a townread after your initial thoughts which felt unnessesary. Like after saying I was town a couple of times you then made pops and I work on the game just to townread us again, seems OTT.

It's less about that and more about making sure you're not just pushing this so you can lynch me in endgame/whatever else.

I work in strange ways. I'd like to think if we both made it to lylo we'd be smart enough to figure out what that meant. Of course I'm going to scumread you after Espeon flips town and the next two lynches you suggest are LHF hence I don't mind lynching them because if you mislynch to lylo then you're obviously scum.
I've already talked about you/Auro being a team and Ali is super concerned that's the team. Pop's thinks Auro is town but that you're scummy and all of us want a few more flips to figure that out. Ali wouldn't mind flipping Auro today but I don't think that's a good idea. I propose you flip tomorrow if we make it there just to avoid mislynching each other in Lylo. You could flip me tomorrow but I don't think that solves anything, you probably still lose if you endgame.

[CheekyTeeky]

Implying I'm scummy for being discontent with you openly pushing for Dann's chain lynch is wild.

Eddie use your scumhunting powers, indignation is fruitless.

[CheekyTeeky]

Dann/Eddie what are you thoughts on gobbles?

[CheekyTeeky]

Dann I want to hear Ank and TWs reads too, a simple readslist is fine. I think TW is the most familiar with me and my scumreading town leaders tactics so it'd be good to hear his take. Ank has good gut reads.

[Dannflor]

TW has been MIA and Ank has been mostly preoccupied, but I’ll try to see where they’re at.

I’ll respond to the rest when I get home

[T-Bone]

Vote Count

goobledygook - 3

(Cephrir, BBMolla, Auro)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook, Dannflor)

Not Voting - 4

(CheekyTeeky, Dongempire, Formerfish, Hopkirk)

Activity Check - Prodding gobbledygook

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-10 23:00:00)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch

[Auro]

Dann, Ank was about to do some VCA, right?

[Dannflor]

Ank says her VCA doesn't work well when she doesn't already have a gamestate read to work off of, and she hasn't even read a lot of the game.

I think that's why she was asking you what would be the best points to look at.

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, what is your read on Auro independent of me?

[CheekyTeeky]

I initially townread Auro, the wagon on him early game felt wrong somehow like it was oddly the main focus for most of D1 until I entered. That read to me like scum were quite happy with the wagon since it remained the sole fixation, it was also good for helping me to develop my townreads on players because they were the ones attempting to spread the focus like Kittymo, Dunnstral, you. Then when the FF wagon happened I felt his probing of FF and hesitation to hammer him was towny. D2 I felt like Auro and I were mind-melding a lot on the Dunn paranoia and the legit gobble scumminess around Espeon. I think his continued pushing on gobbles today is also towny.

I have a tendency to overthink things as games progress and I get to a point that I start scumreading everyone and push them until I feel better about my reads.

When duunn died and Ali said Auro is scummy that caused me to relook at my original read there as I realised I could have been pocketed around EOD1 to push scum agenda and looking back there is a chance Auro could have been scum in all my town interpretations of his behaviour. It's most likely he is scum with you but I'd find it hard to see anyone else as his buddy without looking into it further. So if I had to lynch between you, I'd think you over Auro because I have less mind-melds with you and less reason to townread you. I can also think of another buddy or two for you.

[Dannflor]

Ank says that independently she thinks Hop is most likely to flip scum

@Auro

[Dannflor]

eddie is currently working on hard solving this game

I will also be

but I need food first

[Dannflor]

Implying I'm scummy for being discontent with you openly pushing for Dann's chain lynch is wild.

Eddie use your scumhunting powers, indignation is fruitless.

He used his scum hunting powers to dunk on the Open

[Dannflor]

Ok so far Pops hasn't read all the game but she has a spicy scum read on Cephrir and she berated me for being a dick to/scumspecting Dunnstral.
She used a lot of words to reason the Cephrir scumread that looked very convincing to me.

Even if this is no longer true, can you paraphrase Pops' scum case on Ceph?

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, is there a reason scum!me being coached by Eddie doesn't just kill you over Dunn?

I felt like you kept reinforcing me as a townread after your initial thoughts which felt unnessesary. Like after saying I was town a couple of times you then made pops and I work on the game just to townread us again, seems OTT.

My team is a little over the top. Seriously, you should see our Discord over this event. We quadruple-check our town reads like every other day and it can be silly. EC admits he does this personally to a fault sometimes. I know Ank does this a lot. I've grown to do it more and more as I've become more experienced. Basically, each time I stated you were town probably coincided with us revisiting you and being like... Could we be wrong here? Could she be scum? And going back over everything, double checking, and then being more confident than we were before. After Pops had flipped red in the Open, EC wanted Pops' thoughts specifically just because he thought it would be telling about your alignment. yeah, we were already town reading you, but in the words of Espeonage, "reads are fallible." After that, we were most sure you were town as we'd ever been, and made that clear in thread.

I guess it's not as transparent since a lot of it happens over time in our discord, but there has been so much reevaluating done even with my strong town reads. We've even questioned Auro quite a bit!

I work in strange ways. I'd like to think if we both made it to lylo we'd be smart enough to figure out what that meant. Of course I'm going to scumread you after Espeon flips town and the next two lynches you suggest are LHF hence I don't mind lynching them because if you mislynch to lylo then you're obviously scum.

Currently, something that worries me is if I lead a mislynch today, Cephrir gets NKed (seems to fit the pattern of calm collected townies getting killed, see KittyMo and Dunnstral), and then you lead a mislynch on me. But obviously talking about this in advance probably isn't going to be productive. And it's possible I'm worrying for nothing.

With Espeonage... I did start to feel he could be town very late in the day. When he voted Hopkirk I was like... and was so so close to switching to Gobble end of day yesterday. Obviously none of this showed up in the thread so I could just be making it up. But it's the truth. EC had some similar suspicions, and even rereading tonight said that he regrets being so confident in scum reading Espeonage.

However, I don't regret lynching Espeonage. I mean I regret it in the sense of "I wish we lynched scum instead," but I don't think it was a *bad* lynch. It's the same reason why me gunning for more "LHF" today is also optimal in my opinion. EC and co. have started going through the list of possible teams

Spoiler: teams myself excluded obviously

BB FF
BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Ceph
BB Hop
BB Dong
BB Gobble
FF Cheeky
FF Auro
FF Ceph
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Gobble
Cheeky Auro
Cheeky Ceph
Cheeky Hop
Cheeky Dong
Cheeky Gobble
Auro Ceph
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Gobble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Dong
Ceph Gobble
Hop Dong
Hop Gobble
Dong Gobble

and methodically removing ones that we just don't think are possible by finding that one post we just don't think is SvS. We've cut it down a fair bit at this point. We have BB with only like 3 possible teams IIRC (I'll show more work on this later). However, this kind of brute game solve becomes exponentially easier with another town lynch and NK. And that's why Eddie Cane killed pisskop or Elsa without hesitation in the Open despite town leaning one of them because it just made the game easier. He was still for killing Espeonage after he town spewed a bit because killing people who have been wrong the whole game (or have a

pure mechanical game solve

of likely 4 town) is good for removing paranoia late game, even if they flip town. Late game is when the game gets so much easier from a scumhunting perspective because there's simply less options, especially in White Flag.

Similarly, this reasoning is why I think killing Dong or Turkey is the right choice today even independent of reads. Killing LHF earlier rather than later leads to town actually being able to solve later on. There's also the added bonus of, hey, there's a not too bad chance we hit scum too. Last Team Mafia WF town won in MyLo because only the better players were alive.

Eddie also wants to explicitly point out that in WF specifically, the game is very winnable in f5. It's harder in normal setups because scum can bus. Here, they can only pretend to bus. While obviously I would like to lynch scum today, and I very much plan to, I also want to make sure my lynched secure a good f5 if it comes to that. Like, imagine an f5 with you, me, esp, dong, gobble? I feel like the odds are stacked against us in that scenario.

I'm explaining all this to you because I very much think you're town (OTT yes I know) and I want you to be able to better understand where me and my team are coming from this game. I think you see me pushing for LHF without quite understanding what our strategy is here.

But that all doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things. I really do want to try hard this weekend and try to get a scum lynch. I think this game is totally solvable. It's harder with 9 players instead of 7, but certainly possible. I've already started cutting down on teams, and I'm gonna shut up and do some work on that after this.

As far as Ank and Tom's reads go:

TW is still very confident on Auro!town. Wants to lynch Cheeky.

Ank thinks BBmolla is town, thinks Hopkirk is scum, and doesn't have a good read on Cheeky

Honestly, I think they just came in and saw #2343 and didn't understand where you were coming from. I have a better idea of where you're coming from and my town read isn't really shaken. EC has had some moments of wanting to yolo-lynch you and saying his town read has completely vanished, but I hashed it out with him and he thinks it's mostly just a paranoia scum read and that you're more town than not. idk why I'm telling you this but I figured you might want to know where we all stand on you. It doesn't really matter though because I get final say.

Anyway. That's the last post I'm gonna do on the me/you dichotomy or your read on me or whatever. Time to focus on other things.

[Dannflor]

Dann/Eddie what are you thoughts on gobbles?

I think these posts are more likely to come from a town!Gobble than a scum!Gobble:

I’m on my lunch break now
If I die Cheeky/Dann looks really bad with NSG scum flip. I think it would make BBmolla town too

You called yourself low hanging fruit earlier. Why do you think you have a chance of dying?

If NSG flips scum I think it makes me fairly obviously town

since I’ve been saying that for a long time

I’m on my lunch break now

If I die

Cheeky/Dann looks really bad with NSG scum flip. I think it would make BBmolla town too

They're kinda ridiculous and I'd expect scum to have more subtlety in the bus to town cred equation.

He might still be a good lynch depending on how many teams he fits into. But as of right now I'm not feeling too hot about it. Currently, just based on my reads I'm looking in the circle of [Dong, FF, Hopkirk] for scum

[Dannflor]

What does everyone think about this? BBmolla/Gobble has been a proposed team thrown around a lot but the posts below make it seem unlikely? Not impossible but maybe improbable.

Spoiler: bb/gobble

If you think Dong is 'pretty blatant scum' I'd prefer that you pushed that lynch over policy voting nsg

I'd rather do that than get to LYLO and have NSG not fucking posted all game because "sorry guys other games required attention."

whoever said lynching lurkers day 1 is a bad idea is wrong, everything I've ever experienced has shown proof of the opposite.

you can't read someone if they have no content to get a read from and that only gets worse as time goes on

BBmolla is the mafia commentator we have sorely missed.

I will look over this game tonight

Good vote tho Cheeky if I’m wrong I’ll sheep you tomorrow 100%

VOTE: Gobble

If you’re right we win

If you’re wrong you get no say in tomorrow’s lynch Auro

Yes I’m bussing Dong come back

[Dannflor]

Ok. I am caught up. I don't think I am actually going to wall anything, I'm just going to give reads.

Town
KittyMo
Auro
Dann
Dunn
Cephrir
Hopkirk
Espeonage
Joan of Arc
DongEmpire
Formerfish
Wgeurts
NSG
Scum

You can view the Joan of Arc line as the official null line because I have no read on that slot and it is odd that others do have a read on that slot when it has two posts with no content.

Principally, the things that I am most suspect about are...

Dunn being able to extrapolate so much from a Joan of Arc vote on me. I feel like he is projecting and has entered the Death Spiral to get me killed.
NSG stating that Wgeurts was one of the three people in her town block and then not moving her vote despite having ample to time to post several more times after that fact.
Dongempire backing off Cephrir seemed like he realized he went down the wrong path trying to get people to scumread Cephrir. I also feel like Hopkirk is reaching with some of his analysis (particular when it comes to me), but he is very funny so I will townread him to keep him around longer.

I want to vote NSG because she is playing into her scum meta that I saw in Alternative 9P. I find it odd that no one else is commenting on that. It seemed like it was common knowledge across the site since other payers in that game also made that observation.

VOTE: Dongempire

EC brought something up about this post, Ank and I ended up agreeing. Basically, Gobble does not put partner!nsg in the bottom reads spot and then vote partner!dong because that's obviously going to draw attention. I think this completely strikes dong/gobble as a team which was something I was considering earlier this day phase. I don't think it makes sense to so blatantly avoid bussing NSG only to vote your less scum read partner? If Gobble was TMIing with his reads he probably would have at least been consistent with it.

[Dannflor]

Oh Duck also thinks BBmolla is town, I forgot to mention that earlier. Ankamius' tentative team solve is Hopkirk/FF.