Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[Iconeum]

Bye

[Iconeum]

Oooh pt niice

[Aristophanes]

Guys iz Ico here

I love allll ov you

<3 <3 <3

[Xtoxm]

i think theres some merit to the traitor theory, it does explain me as target, and (imo) the setup we seem to have.
without the .. disloyal? modifier makes it difficult for scum to get much utility from it tho. but i guess regular nb is +options for scum

[Xtoxm]

i'll qualify that with in 10-3, jic.

[Xtoxm]

re:7214#

i thought it was pretty obvious rc wouldnt be lynched d2.
ppl townread him til endgame regardless of align, regardless of # mislynches.

[Xtoxm]

OH also, pine gave reads yesterday that i forgot to share.
he said he'd vote either shos or rce (he thinks either is fine and stated no preference)
he also said to be wary of ico gambitting (this was before massclaim was done, tho)
and that he liked skitter for town
there was no real elaboration on any of this

[MathBlade]

i think theres some merit to the traitor theory, it does explain me as target, and (imo) the setup we seem to have.
without the .. disloyal? modifier makes it difficult for scum to get much utility from it tho. but i guess regular nb is +options for scum

What do you think happened N1?

[Xtoxm]

um..i dont understand the question?

[MathBlade]

um..i dont understand the question?

N1 there was no kill.

Who do you think scum tried to kill?
And who do you think tried to do it?

[Xtoxm]

you are one of power/big presence players, and iirc you were tr eod1 so i think you could have been the kill.
i wouldnt expect rce to be a common n1 nk pick.
i get the mechanical argument on rce. thing is, independently i tr him kinda hard.
given rc was town and they went for him n2 im surprised they wouldnt n1, but a foolish scum may have thought between duck + me that rc would be lynchable. sauds play does point to that in a way.

[MathBlade]

you are one of power/big presence players, and iirc you were tr eod1 so i think you could have been the kill.
i wouldnt expect rce to be a common n1 nk pick.
i get the mechanical argument on rce. thing is, independently i tr him kinda hard.
given rc was town and they went for him n2 im surprised they wouldnt n1, but a foolish scum may have thought between duck + me that rc would be lynchable. sauds play does point to that in a way.

So then who according to you shoots me? So much more so you’re willing to ignore the mechanical evidence? A majority of this game doesn’t.

[Xtoxm]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

[MathBlade]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

Sack of potatoes? What does that mean?

[MathBlade]

You replace a low poster. But like, it doesn't matter.

It really does matter. It tells me you have stronger feelings about Teacher as scum as well as saying I could be a scumteam with Teacher and RC in your eyes, which is kind of out there tbh.

I started callong Teacher scummy out of the gates and when I had a chance to rethink that, I instead doubled down on it. How would we be possible teammates in your eyes?

@teacher

It’s a lot of posts like this here.

Day one Ari was lurky and crappy but was probably VLA

Day two he started interacting with things in depth.

Titus scumreads Ari but I don’t.

Which kinda is a reverse of day one lol.

[implosion]

Spoiler: straws grasping at yet more elusive straws

Vote Count 3.5

RCEnigma

(3): MathBlade, Flopz, shos

MathBlade

(1): skitter30

Not Voting (6): RCEnigma, Aristophanes, Bellaphant, Xtoxm, teacher, Iconeum

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

[Bellaphant]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

[shos]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

[shos]

You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:
Scum targeted you
Scum targeted RCE
Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:
RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
you and RCE were universal townreads.
if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari

OK I read your post and I don't understand this.
1. RCE was a universal townread - ergo, scum would be more than happy to use him to make the kill as odds are he'll get away with it.
2. ....that's it, RC is completely irrelevant

Why would you say that is <40% to happen? there are three scums most likely - one of them has to do the kill. Trisaudade slot would be an option indeed with its multitasking factor, but if RCE is widely townread and Trisaudade isn't (I assume this, considering that we DID lynch that slot yesterday), it is far less dangerous.

So the abstract is 33% for each, ya?

I believe both protective claims, and think they were good targets - meaning I do think either math or rce could reasonably have been targeted if town.

I do not think Town!rc is a significantly better kill target than either of town!them, because he is mislynchable and dividing town.

*****
Trying another way, you question assumes RCE scum. Sure, there’s a decent chance he does the kill if scum (esp if strongman, and more likely than tris who Would be in the investigative pool). But I can’t get to the assumption, and I can’t use the standard jk inference because there’s a third situation where the jk isn’t relevNt.

it's 33% without considering what has been happening in the game. again - RCE in eod1 wouldn't have been a good guess for a town PR target, especially looking at the amount of loud noise coming from other slots.

[Iconeum]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

[shos]

Let's sort the one by one eh
Start with RCE

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

Why aren’t you voting RCE? << Question from Titus to Bella

And I am down for letting this sort tomorrow.

Titus is in a bit of moon logic territory imho so I am talking with her first before explaining her reads.

[MathBlade]

Below is a Titus paraphrase: (I don’t agree but ...*shrug*)

Hey everyone,

My VCA says we should leave RCE alone and go after shos and Flopz, if I am wrong on teacher. The only scum on the Flopz wagon in 1.8 was shos(will explain why no RCE soon). Shos is in the run people over with a vehicle with lots of wheels spot. 1.13 and 1.14 leave the teacher longshot as possible. Back half of the worst wagon is loaded with lots of people that are possibly scummy. That suggests a flip worst, lynch RC strategy.

N1, Scum kill RCE to get Math and RC fighting like cats and dogs. Bella healed him.

D2, Opening, Flopz jumps on Ari mislynch when Shos wagoned. Rule of adjoining peoples, Flopz and teacher unlikely. Teacher likely townbeard. Confscum on skitter wagon with no counter. Skitter locktown for today. 2.8 is a neon lynch Shos sign. 2.11-2.15, Flopz waffles on whether to use a vehicle for manslaughter of an evil person or stick with Math v RC plan. Sausade self hammer suggests at least one scum on.

I say to lynch shos and Flopz.

——— End Titus paraphrase ———

I disagree just being a good teammate

[MathBlade]

And yes she completely changed her mind on Ari once I told her Bella’s claim

I think she needs to let the Bella claim sit a bit but she wanted to get her opinion out before I am gone all day

[MathBlade]

Titus is rapidly typing that she made a typo and teacher is the backup and shos+Flopz are primary scumreads.

Anywho still doesn’t make sense but correcting that.