Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

[MathBlade]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

Then if you don’t believe RCE is scum you have to push an alternative that is more probable than that.
Teacher is trying but still didn’t explain which other theory is more likely. I think he’s scum or town that’s doing scum’s work for them but he’s at least pushing Ari (I think?)

[Iconeum]

Below is a Titus paraphrase: (I don’t agree but ...*shrug*)

Hey everyone,

My VCA says we should leave RCE alone and go after shos and Flopz, if I am wrong on teacher. The only scum on the Flopz wagon in 1.8 was shos(will explain why no RCE soon). Shos is in the run people over with a vehicle with lots of wheels spot. 1.13 and 1.14 leave the teacher longshot as possible. Back half of the worst wagon is loaded with lots of people that are possibly scummy. That suggests a flip worst, lynch RC strategy.

N1, Scum kill RCE to get Math and RC fighting like cats and dogs. Bella healed him.

D2, Opening, Flopz jumps on Ari mislynch when Shos wagoned. Rule of adjoining peoples, Flopz and teacher unlikely. Teacher likely townbeard. Confscum on skitter wagon with no counter. Skitter locktown for today. 2.8 is a neon lynch Shos sign. 2.11-2.15, Flopz waffles on whether to use a vehicle for manslaughter of an evil person or stick with Math v RC plan. Sausade self hammer suggests at least one scum on.

I say to lynch shos and Flopz.

——— End Titus paraphrase ———
I disagree just being a good teammate

Shos/flopz is a bullshit bracket to lynch in
It's actually scummy to even think it tbh

[Iconeum]

Flopz is way towniier then math

Shos is maybe scum, but def not with flopz

heavily in favour of RCE still ,and if that flips scum math is a v likely partner

[Iconeum]

Willing to consider scum in shos if RCE flips town tho

[Flopz]

D2, Opening, Flopz jumps on Ari mislynch when Shos wagoned. Rule of adjoining peoples, Flopz and teacher unlikely. Teacher likely townbeard. Confscum on skitter wagon with no counter. Skitter locktown for today. 2.8 is a neon lynch Shos sign. 2.11-2.15, Flopz waffles on whether to use a vehicle for manslaughter of an evil person or stick with Math v RC plan. Sausade self hammer suggests at least one scum on.

I say to lynch shos and Flopz.

——— End Titus paraphrase ———

I disagree just being a good teammate

Not sure on how any of that even logically follows. I was VLA before Shos was even in the game, went on Friday while Shos started on Sat. I missed the following 50 pages after that which I commented on after returning on the Wednesday. I didn't even know who Shos was at the time and I was a part of the Ari wagon way before that (5258). My only knowledge about what Shos was doing in the game was when I looked through Ico's iso because I heard talk of claiming and then saw those posts and then I voted Shos after seeing Icos criticism of them (5260).

The next part doesn't make sense either, I was never part of the Maths v RC debacle, stating I TR both of them. I have never voted for either of them. Not sure what is going on with that manslaughter comment but I can probably disprove it if it's brought up in plainer terms. If it's talking about my vote away from sausage towards RCE and then back again. That's self-explanatory with what was going on at the time (Me n RC were finding some discrepancies in what he was saying, in real time, but the wagon wasn't going to go anywhere so I moved back).

[MathBlade]

@Flopz I agree lately very little of what Titus has been saying makes sense. But she was getting annoyed at me not posting her opinions that didn’t make sense soooo :/ Damned if you do damned if you don’t.

@Ico I still favor RCE even with your shade. If RCE flips scum and you still wanna push me fine but I really don’t think that makes sense and if we get down to 1 or 2 scum then we will have room to mislynch me if you insist. I don’t really see how any of that follows but you do you.

RCE + Skitter or teacher makes so much more sense.

[RCEnigma]

Math I'm having a really hard time seeing how you're justifying 3 scum alive while not worrying that a mislynch today makes tomorrow Mylo.

[RCEnigma]

In that world* should probably add that.

[teacher]

RCE, what do you make of ?Ico?'s point that you now kinda have to be resolved before mylo, speaking of?

[MathBlade]

Math I'm having a really hard time seeing how you're justifying 3 scum alive while not worrying that a mislynch today makes tomorrow Mylo.

I am not concerned for a couple of reasons. This post also assumes Mafiascum “balance”

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town. Then people understand it is an honest theory with an honest mistake. And then 2) How your wagon formed and who was against it/for it and why will likely net us that scum.
3) Since RC for all intents and purposes should have been the kill if not then we look back at Ari and the people I suspected day one as my reads were wrong.

Either you’re scum or we go into tomorrow with two or more of Bella/me/Ico all of whom conf town and that would make a mislynch a lot harder. It becomes a numbers game.

And if you’re scum it’s 1-2 scum alive versus Bella conf town and Ico very likely town but not quite conf.

It’s win win no matter what.

[teacher]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.

NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved now, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.

[skitter30]

@ico Think for a minute
Neighborizing scum has flipped.
What better boon to give scum than an ability to talk with a traitor.
My guess is that Xtom was their guess on the traitor.
The way teacher asks me gamestate while scumreading me tells me that he thinks I am the traitor.

That actually does make a lot of sense, I'll give you that. Scum have a *multitasking* neighboutizer. Why is that?
1. Because they other scums are not goons (or one is n-shot strongman)
2. Because it is intended that even if scum Tris/saudade is the one making the kill, he still will be able to neighboutizer - i.e. scum have motivation to get a hood.

This fits, actually

no, it really doesn't

there's really no universe where this game is 3+1, i would be *shocked* if that were the case
maaaaaybe 2+1 but scum already have to contend with two protectives that fuck with them getting the nk and a traitor is weaker than a full 3person scumteam so i think that's p unlikely unless last scum is like a full strongman or something.
even in that scenario tbh

a few assorted thoughts as i've been reading thru:

-> i really don't think ari is scum, and esp. not scum with saudade, despite him defending sauade yesterday; when i asked him to join in real time the night the wagon grew he was p cool with it and joined it with little resistance fairly immediately thereafter, and stayed throughout the rest of the day. rc was harping on it but iirc it wasn't a sure thing yet and if scum were bussing the way ari joined feels like the wrong time for a bus; i'd expect scum to hop on when it had grown some more and seemed more likely to go through

-> given saudade neighborizer i think that xtoxm is more likely than not town

-> i think math is significantly less likely to be town than rce. i think he's espousing nonsense and i honestly can't track how he's approaching this day at all

-> in contrast, i think that rce's blunt 'well idk what to tell but i didn't the nk n1' is kinda townie. also i think him not getting flustered is +town; i think that scum who gets caught in this kind of situation is less ~calm~ since they know they're mechanically screwed and are in a p tough spot and thus tend to be more survivalistic imo. he's kinda accepted the inevitability of his lynch and is instead trying to move town towards figuring out where to solve after his flip, which i don't think scum do here, i'd more expect them to be trying to talk their way of being the lynch. which he is kinda like doing but that's not his focus rn, it's more: ok fine, you flip me, where do you go next, and that mindset i think is townie

-> also wrt to the rce's nonflustered-ness: if he's scum he's the deep wolf - we all kinda agree that's why he would have done the nk n1, because in most teams he'd be least likely to be tracked or detected or whatever. so if he's the deepwolf, and he's going down today ... he's remarkably calm given the state that his team must be in rn. i think he'd be a little more desperate if he felt that the game was dependant on his survival

-> i think that there was something else i wanted to say but i'm blanking, it will probably come to me

[skitter30]

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

oh the irony ...

[skitter30]

math if it's 3+1 we're in mylo today, right?
because if scum get an nk tonight the game is just over at 8: 3 + 1 + 4 which is parity

[skitter30]

scum!you is scum!ari imo

why do you see this ?

[skitter30]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

-> i don't think my reads have been crap, ty
-> for the six billionth time you seem to be basing your entire knowledge of how i play on one game that took place 2+ years ago; plz stop pointing at meta when you have no idea what you're talking about and ignore me when i point it out
-> i keep on trying to get you to explain why you scumread me but you keep poining at generalities ('she's scummy' 'her reads have been crap') or things that are categorically untrue ('her timeline for when she scumread me yesterday doesn't make sense') or things taht are kinda irrelevant ('i think she's scum because she's playing different than that one game we played together 2+ years ago, before several play style changes occured'). when i respond with details or specific questions you've ignored them

[skitter30]

Shos/flopz is a bullshit bracket to lynch in
It's actually scummy to even think it tbh

yes, it really is

[skitter30]

math if it's 3+1 we're in mylo today, right?
because if scum get an nk tonight the game is just over at 8: 3 + 1 + 4 which is parity

oh this was a brainfart, sorry
that would make tomorrow lylo

[skitter30]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town. Then people understand it is an honest theory with an honest mistake. And then 2) How your wagon formed and who was against it/for it and why will likely net us that scum.

i don't get it
how are you conftown if rce is town?

there's a universe where rce is town and got saved from being nk'd
bella and ico are p much conftown already, they don't need rce's townflip to reaffirm that

again i don't like how you keep sticking yourself in a conftown pool ?

[Xtoxm]

wait, i thought you suspected those slots skitter
what happened?

[skitter30]

you talking about shos/flopz?

i sr flopz but there's about six billion better lynches today given the math/rce thing

also i don't particularly want to lynch shos anymore
or at least i'm not interested in him today

[shos]

yeah yeah
more bla bla bla
can we continue with lynching RCE.

[Xtoxm]

anyway teacher, your comment about you cant get rce above 40% got me thinking.

10 alive, lets remove bella/ico, 8 suspects. 2 scum => 25% odds of scum, or from a personal perspective, removing oneself, 28.5% (im not sure if its actually fair to do this)

youre framing it as:
math nk: 33%
rce nk: 33%
rce makes kill: 33%

so theres only a 4.5% chance above rand that rce is scum. not very significant right? wrong!

lets frame it another way.

12 slots alive n1. saud is known scum, so lets remove it from the nk pool, leaving 11.
remaining scum identities are unknown, so i think they have to be left in.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

when i think about it like this, theres no way to justify opposing the rce lynch bc of a tr.
81.8% is a massive improvement over rand.

i think this is the right way to model it, but i'd be interested in having my working proof read.
im more interested in the stats side than "player Y is 80% likely to be the nk bc i can read scums minds"

[MathBlade]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.

NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved now, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.

Uhmmm less likely and 50/50 both these things can’t be true.
50/50 is equal.

And yeah I would be the kill in that case because all RCE did end of day was say “Yeah I would lynch RC tomorrow”

So then conf isn’t right but very very very likely town.