Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[Iconeum]

RCE, what do you make of ?Ico?'s point that you now kinda have to be resolved before mylo, speaking of?

Like rce scum, great. Rce town then math is town as well and the pool is narrow come next day

[Xtoxm]

on another note, re-checked my math read but still came back to thinking hes town
not interested at all in lynching math as the alternative to rce

[MathBlade]

@ico Think for a minute
Neighborizing scum has flipped.
What better boon to give scum than an ability to talk with a traitor.
My guess is that Xtom was their guess on the traitor.
The way teacher asks me gamestate while scumreading me tells me that he thinks I am the traitor.

That actually does make a lot of sense, I'll give you that. Scum have a *multitasking* neighboutizer. Why is that?
1. Because they other scums are not goons (or one is n-shot strongman)
2. Because it is intended that even if scum Tris/saudade is the one making the kill, he still will be able to neighboutizer - i.e. scum have motivation to get a hood.

This fits, actually

no, it really doesn't

there's really no universe where this game is 3+1, i would be *shocked* if that were the case
maaaaaybe 2+1 but scum already have to contend with two protectives that fuck with them getting the nk and a traitor is weaker than a full 3person scumteam so i think that's p unlikely unless last scum is like a full strongman or something.
even in that scenario tbh

a few assorted thoughts as i've been reading thru:

-> i really don't think ari is scum, and esp. not scum with saudade, despite him defending sauade yesterday; when i asked him to join in real time the night the wagon grew he was p cool with it and joined it with little resistance fairly immediately thereafter, and stayed throughout the rest of the day. rc was harping on it but iirc it wasn't a sure thing yet and if scum were bussing the way ari joined feels like the wrong time for a bus; i'd expect scum to hop on when it had grown some more and seemed more likely to go through

-> given saudade neighborizer i think that xtoxm is more likely than not town

-> i think math is significantly less likely to be town than rce. i think he's espousing nonsense and i honestly can't track how he's approaching this day at all

-> in contrast, i think that rce's blunt 'well idk what to tell but i didn't the nk n1' is kinda townie. also i think him not getting flustered is +town; i think that scum who gets caught in this kind of situation is less ~calm~ since they know they're mechanically screwed and are in a p tough spot and thus tend to be more survivalistic imo. he's kinda accepted the inevitability of his lynch and is instead trying to move town towards figuring out where to solve after his flip, which i don't think scum do here, i'd more expect them to be trying to talk their way of being the lynch. which he is kinda like doing but that's not his focus rn, it's more: ok fine, you flip me, where do you go next, and that mindset i think is townie

-> also wrt to the rce's nonflustered-ness: if he's scum he's the deep wolf - we all kinda agree that's why he would have done the nk n1, because in most teams he'd be least likely to be tracked or detected or whatever. so if he's the deepwolf, and he's going down today ... he's remarkably calm given the state that his team must be in rn. i think he'd be a little more desperate if he felt that the game was dependant on his survival

-> i think that there was something else i wanted to say but i'm blanking, it will probably come to me

Full strongman 1) improbable as no successful N1 kill
2) that’s where I was getting one of Bella/Ico scum but that got shot down as not “balanced”.
3) Incorrect. Xtom as scum says not neighborized here unless they tried to neighborize RCE and failed. With Saud being multitasking the action was very likely used making Xtom very likely town.
4) Both you and teacher may not understand my moonlogic but RCE is the lynch that we need atm. I may be bad at wordy words but I am good at trying really hard.
5) RCE if he knows he’s the lynch doesn’t give info. Here he’s not trying for reads. He tried to push me with a what if?
This is absolutely the right play why are you and teacher so against it?
6) Why are you assuming only one deep wolf? RCE plus you and/or teacher is highly probable here. I honestly expected to come back with RCEs flip when I left for the bay. Not resistance

[MathBlade]

In short I really don’t think Xtom is scum but the only possible world Xtom is scum in is an RCE town one and that’s highly improbable

[MathBlade]

anyway teacher, your comment about you cant get rce above 40% got me thinking.

10 alive, lets remove bella/ico, 8 suspects. 2 scum => 25% odds of scum, or from a personal perspective, removing oneself, 28.5% (im not sure if its actually fair to do this)

youre framing it as:
math nk: 33%
rce nk: 33%
rce makes kill: 33%

so theres only a 4.5% chance above rand that rce is scum. not very significant right? wrong!

lets frame it another way.

12 slots alive n1. saud is known scum, so lets remove it from the nk pool, leaving 11.
remaining scum identities are unknown, so i think they have to be left in.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

when i think about it like this, theres no way to justify opposing the rce lynch bc of a tr.
81.8% is a massive improvement over rand.

i think this is the right way to model it, but i'd be interested in having my working proof read.
im more interested in the stats side than "player Y is 80% likely to be the nk bc i can read scums minds"

Your math imho is incorrect here.
Scum identities are unknown but there are at least two alive scum more than likely so scum wouldn’t submit a kill on buddies. So then you’d be looking at 9 or 8 nk possibilities.

[MathBlade]

The idea behind it though is spot on which is why RCE should be lynched.

[MathBlade]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

-> i don't think my reads have been crap, ty
-> for the six billionth time you seem to be basing your entire knowledge of how i play on one game that took place 2+ years ago; plz stop pointing at meta when you have no idea what you're talking about and ignore me when i point it out
-> i keep on trying to get you to explain why you scumread me but you keep poining at generalities ('she's scummy' 'her reads have been crap') or things that are categorically untrue ('her timeline for when she scumread me yesterday doesn't make sense') or things taht are kinda irrelevant ('i think she's scum because she's playing different than that one game we played together 2+ years ago, before several play style changes occured'). when i respond with details or specific questions you've ignored them

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

[shos]

Oy,
Mathematician here
I think I'm qualified for this

We had 12 alive that night, 3 scum.

1. Any of the other scums perform kill: 66%
---if this is the case, then the target must have been either RCE or Math, 2/9*


This means the odds for RCE not being blocked as a reason for the lack of kill is 2*66/9=14.7%

That is assuming there was a kill.

[MathBlade]

Oy,
Mathematician here
I think I'm qualified for this

We had 12 alive that night, 3 scum.

1. Any of the other scums perform kill: 66%
---if this is the case, then the target must have been either RCE or Math, 2/9*


This means the odds for RCE not being blocked as a reason for the lack of kill is 2*66/9=14.7%

That is assuming there was a kill.

This is team mafia. We can assume scum aren’t being silly and just not killing. The three scum minimum yeah could be four based on a few things but three is more probable.

[teacher]

im mostly asleep but rolled over and read the maths from xtomx and shos

youre not wrong but youre not right either the problem loes in the odds youre ssyong 2/9

but theres no way in hell im killed n1 or flopz pr xtom or bella ormplim

these ppl were save candidates for a reason - there was a ++rand chance tp be killed

[teacher]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.

NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved

now

, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.

Uhmmm less likely and 50/50 both these things can’t be true.
50/50 is equal.

And yeah I would be the kill in that case because all RCE did end of day was say “Yeah I would lynch RC tomorrow”

So then conf isn’t right but very very very likely town.

again reading issues its less likely now bc now i have to factor in rce scum without that its appr 50/50 to me

[MathBlade]

im mostly asleep but rolled over and read the maths from xtomx and shos

youre not wrong but youre not right either the problem loes in the odds youre ssyong 2/9

but theres no way in hell im killed n1 or flopz pr xtom or bella ormplim

these ppl were save candidates for a reason - there was a ++rand chance tp be killed

Okay...You can’t have it both ways.

If there is a ++rand chance RC (the only claimed PR) is shot then it’s a ++rand RCE tried to do it as the kill failed.
If you’re saying there isn’t ++rand chance RC is killed then the odds Xtom presented work and RCE was most likely the killer.

Both roads lead to RCE being the likely killer here.

[MathBlade]

Xtom and shos **

[teacher]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

[MathBlade]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

That’s actually boiling down to
Me save
RCE save
RCE did the kill of anyone else (skit or RC) << This possibility in your list even if we use this narrowed down is the most likely.

Even if we assume that only those four options exist (which imho is incorrect)
That’s still 50% chance RCE is scum who was jailkept
25% chance I was shot and RCE alignment unknown
And 25% chance RCE was shot and town.

So what exactly is your issue with voting RCE here?

[teacher]

because i fair'y heavily heavily townread his play including his reaction to this, and a 50/50 shot isnt going to chanfe that?

im not closed to it because i take icos need to resolve point but mech reading someone off of a situation that i cant get past a statistical deadheat isnt something im going to simply let past without contesting. like if theres actual scumplay, im all ears, but night one simplynisnt going to convince me and im going tomvoice that

now goodnight

[Xtoxm]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

scum dont always make the expected kill
i wouldnt put any slot below, say, 5%
obviously i agree that, subjectively, some slots are more likely shots than others

@shos, thanks
looks like whatever errors i made ended up with a lower number than yours, and my main concern was being wrong in the other direction.

im on board now, holding off since ico asked.

[MathBlade]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

scum dont always make the expected kill
i wouldnt put any slot below, say, 5%
obviously i agree that, subjectively, some slots are more likely shots than others

@shos, thanks
looks like whatever errors i made ended up with a lower number than yours, and my main concern was being wrong in the other direction.

im on board now, holding off since ico asked.

The main problem is how you phrase the question can get a wildly different number for the same concept.

Hence why stats can be misleading.

I was trying to actually steer away from percentages.

Also RCE being a townread from teacher is horrible considering RC’s FoS of RCE yesterday.

[MathBlade]

The gist of the point is that the RCE was scum jailkept is much much more likely than any other option.

[MathBlade]

Trim talk about Plum town or scum and why?

eh, not much of a read yet. the skitter read might come from town.

Then who are you supposing I am scum with? Your vote is on me.

What are you doing to find my nonexistent buddies?

Gross. Why does Tris need to solve the rest of the game to pursue a scum read? Instead of, y'know, sorting that scumread.

This is also gross considering Saud(tris) flipped scum.

[MathBlade]

I've only gotten through one recent page. RC the only major wagons have been on your scumreads. Led by you. Followed by the slots that think you're town (almost everyone) and at one point (probably everyone).

If scum destroyed the gamestate then yes, it's TW intentionally doing so because he knew it would work. Because why wouldn't it. That's not a scum problem.

VOTE: Plum probably fine with a Tris lynch at this point too.

This is also bad since RCE’s previous mention of tris was hard town then no questioning no anything then just sends Tris down to would lynch without explanation.

[MathBlade]

RCE, who's scum with RC?

Teacher + a low poster. Probably within Bella/plum/Xtoxm. Well maybe not Xtoxm, there would probably be more enthusiasm for the game if he rolled scum with RC. Ari can still fit in there. I don't look at RC flipping the wagon at it's height onto TW and think man they look reeeaaallll townie for that.

@RCE, townreads please?

Same as yesterday

Math/Ico/skitter

If RCE is scum rule of three says Skitter probably is. (Yes I know that this gives scum ammo to mislynch me but if I am right on RCE scum we have the breathing room)

[RCEnigma]

RCE, what do you make of ?Ico?'s point that you now kinda have to be resolved before mylo, speaking of?

It's fine. A scum flip today gives town an extra lynch which would make me feel a lot better about being lynched down the line.

[RCEnigma]

But if you're asking how it feels? It blows to be honest.

[MathBlade]

There is a lot of reason to discredit a confirmed slot.

Anyway RC, you're 3 for 3 on pushing for town lynches if Ari ends up town so why should your saudade read be considered different? If not for the fact they voted you.

Which is where a lot of your scumreads have come from this game. I started backing off early because you broke that pattern after I disengaged from interacting but it's picked back up since.

It's really disingenuous to push Math on the grounds that he was defending the shos wagon which was probably scum and now that they've called you town, you called Math out as leading a mislynch if he votes shos.

Ewwwwwwwwww