Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[skitter30]

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

math you've been pushing me for those reasons for like an entire dayphase
and again you're ignoring the '2+ years have gone by and my playstyle has changed in that timespan' thing
and instead keep on falling back on 'but she feels different to me !!!' to push me
which makes me feel like you're just trying to shade me because you're repeatedly ignoring relevant context

[skitter30]

Oy,
Mathematician here
I think I'm qualified for this

We had 12 alive that night, 3 scum.

1. Any of the other scums perform kill: 66%
---if this is the case, then the target must have been either RCE or Math, 2/9*


This means the odds for RCE not being blocked as a reason for the lack of kill is 2*66/9=14.7%

That is assuming there was a kill.

yeah i'm not sure this math is right either actually

[skitter30]

I was waiting on Skitter but I missed her.

sorry, my life has been busier than usual recently
i'll be around for a bit more tonight

anything in particular u wanna talk to me about ?

[skitter30]

OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

i'd really much rather math instead

[MathBlade]

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

math you've been pushing me for those reasons for like an entire dayphase
and again you're ignoring the '2+ years have gone by and my playstyle has changed in that timespan' thing
and instead keep on falling back on 'but she feels different to me !!!' to push me
which makes me feel like you're just trying to shade me because you're repeatedly ignoring relevant context

Did you ignore where I cited problematic posts? I am not ignoring it I am just pointing out what concerns me. No where recently have I cited meta.

[skitter30]

which problematic posts

[MathBlade]

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

i'm p sure your math is wrong

Then what is the right math?

Because let’s assume there’s a typo. The general intent RCE is very likely scum is still there.

Why are you arguing minutia versus the actual point?

[MathBlade]

Ari you can keep babysitting him might as well change his diaper in a while
Ico you can keep being.. well you, like that one time you replaced into my game called all the scum town and all the town scum and that was it
skitter30???? ever since last game your reads were horse shit not gonna lie and if it werent for you getting night killed we'd never lynch Wake88 and won the game at lylo
MathBlade I've no qualms genuine attempts to read through this horseshit

Rule of three. Rule of three. The same rule of three as RCE before.
Plus the shade here was imho an attempt at distancing here and an attempt to buddy me.

If there is no traitor then RCE + Skitter is hella likely.

Here for starters.

[MathBlade]

You could quote their win % a bunch or something.

You mean discrediting Mathblade's play prowess then? Well, I would never have nightkilled them and Math responds significantly better to pocketing than what I did and given past history with the Titus siblings I have universally kept them around by letting them get their way and letting them lynch town, why didn't I let them do that here? At least one of the people Math has pushed (Skitter/Ari) has to be scum unless it's literally the 3 of us.

^^ Oooh look either Skitter or Ari is scum per RC.

Seriously if you don’t listen to me listen to RC.

Another one @skitter

[skitter30]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

[skitter30]

also 'you feel different' is, at its essence, a meta push

[MathBlade]

i can be here till ~10:30 est but then i gotta bounce, i have to be at work an hour and half early tomorrow, fml

Hey skitty! I too am around to chat atm if you got shit for me

I also have a 12 hour work day tomorrow so I feel ya ahaha

hey, how are you still feeling about the shos wagon ?

Heya!

I like the makeup of the wagon minus Flopz who should do SOMETHING but I kinda want to give the guy a chance here. He's legit putting efforts forth and I want to see what he has to say! And I have a feeling it might take an extra day phase to get that tbh. No harm in letting him live the day tbh because if he doesn't deliver he's done.

What do you think of a shift to Saudade?

flopz is scaring me tbh,
i kinda feel like he's had a lot of time to sort of gather thoguths and like ~play~ he's been here since mid-day1 already (like pre rc/tw i think because i remember he voted you during the ehight of your wagon in one of his first posts) and i still feel like we don't have much out of him

rc can you repeat why you're townreading flopz again? because i find that read to be kinda inexplicable.
also the bella one

i'm ok with shifting to saudade
VOTE: saudade

Yeah just okay to shift

Not a skitter driven wagon
It was a skitter sheep

Here’s another

[MathBlade]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

Looking back at RC’s post and seeing what you agree/disagree with.
Looking at the context of the posts and seeing what benefit saud scum gains here.
If you think RCE is town and I am scum explaining how/why RCE was shot over RC and me and which scum does that.

Whatever world you’re pushing has to match facts. It seems like you’re avoiding them.

[MathBlade]

also 'you feel different' is, at its essence, a meta push

Which is why I am not doing that. I am trying to explain.

Pretty much you and teacher both have interacted with RCE posts and just ignored the probable and substituted your own reality.

RCE is probably scum. If you want to ignore that in favor of me or shos being scum you have to provide a case for it.

[skitter30]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

Looking back at RC’s post and seeing what you agree/disagree with.
Looking at the context of the posts and seeing what benefit saud scum gains here.
If you think RCE is town and I am scum explaining how/why RCE was shot over RC and me and which scum does that.

Whatever world you’re pushing has to match facts. It seems like you’re avoiding them.

math you're scumreading me for things that other people said, expecting me to defend myself for other people's words that you scumread is silly

like there's no reasonable response i can give to 'math scumreading me because saudade hammered himself before rc could talk to skitter because he thought that skitter/rce were potential saudade partners', which is why i just ignored those posts the first tiem

i don't think i'm ignoring facts, ty
i think that given the information we have there ultimately isn't a way to conclusively determine which of {math was the nk} {rce was the nk} {rce was teh killer} universe we live in, and so for me i don't think that this is a particularly useful way to scumhunt because it will all ultimately boil down to wifom

there just isn't enough information to conclusively determine what actually happened that night
i agree that rce looks bad because he was alien'd on a night with no nk
does that make him scum (who tried to kill someone, possibly rc)? no, there's several other reasons why the nk may have gone missing there, and flipping him largely for that reason when i townread his play today seems silly to me

[teacher]

Pretty much you and teacher both have interacted with RCE posts and just ignored the probable and substituted your own reality.

Kindly fuck all the way off.

I havent ignored the probable. I have very carefully explained, multiple times, why I cant come up with a "probable." Why reading N1 is a coinflip. You may disagree if you want (and I know you do), but dont misrep me.

To be clear, if you thought you were sufficiently likely to be the N1 kill yesterday to claim conf!town, you cant say RCE is conf!scum today because there is still a goodly chance you (or he) was the kill today.

[teacher]

(also, Im around for a bit, and working on a couple posts I thought of during the day).

[teacher]

OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

i'd really much rather math instead

Maths never going to happen today, and to be honest Im opposed to it too (the tonal thing). I dont think scum!math leads the mislynch this hard, nor is so self-righteous.

Id rather Ari, but thats never going to happen today either.

Shos has the highest equity and is a reasonable compromise. Look at the shos wagons. Look at the associatives btw tris and plum d1

[teacher]

Math im not meaning to offend with this statement however.

Once I flip I think you need to consider backing down from wanting to be towns voice, and play a supporting role instead. I think this is in the best interest of town.

If you flip town then I have no regrets over it.

It would be necessary because of the jailkeep claim.
I would have zero regrets over it.

I would be sad sure.

Also I am not “the voice”.

I gave my opinion and others agree/disagree.

Everyone disagrees with my traitor theory. Fine. I may take a different road to get there but that doesn’t make me wrong.

Your lynch is needed. And I am pretty sure you’re scum.

You are 100% being the voice and drowning the thread.

Day start was at 6650. Here we are less than 700 posts later (7342 when I started this post), and youve made more than 200 of them. In other words, with 11 players left, one slot (you) has made >20% posts. And its all just repeating the same mantra, not offering new insights.

[skitter30]

OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

i'd really much rather math instead

Maths never going to happen today, and to be honest Im opposed to it too (the tonal thing). I dont think scum!math leads the mislynch this hard, nor is so self-righteous.

Id rather Ari, but thats never going to happen today either.

Shos has the highest equity and is a reasonable compromise. Look at the shos wagons. Look at the associatives btw tris and plum d1

i know that it's kinda unlikely for today, i'm kinda expressing my distate/dislike for the current options
i won't vote ari today
i don't want to vote rce
i guess i'd go shos over those two but that's not really where i want to go either

[teacher]

You agree Math's not on offer I think. So where do you want to go thats not math, and why?

Xtomx, the neighborizer thing is the big thing that has them well over shos. (the secondary thing, thats still there, is the D1 associatives).

[skitter30]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

bella/ico - town
rce - i don't think scum reacts to this entire nk/alien thing the way he has
ari - i think is just town on meta
you - i'm not sure where it happened exactly but over the course of today (i.e. day3) you've become a townread too

which leaves {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}

math and flopz aren't doable today
and xtoxm i don't really townread on play but the neighborize kinda points to town
which kinda leaves shos. was townreading him for some of the stuff he was saying at daystart but as i mull it over i don't really remember why that was exactly

the very very early game thing pointed to {plum/tris}, and tris-slot/saudade did flip scum
and shos did very staunchly object to saudade in favor of xtoxm. i think that whole interaction means that shos/xtoxm can't be scum together
and saudade was trying to rile up rc as shos was getting wagoned

let me check daystart to see what i was thinking there, some parts of the game are starting to blur together in my head

[skitter30]

I no longer think that we should lynch shos first today. His resistance to the saudade wagon was gross, but it's sucu an explicitly bad position for scum to take on a partner that i'm no longer convinced that they're svs

Also shos's exasperation at the gamestate at eod yesterday seems townie

this.
looking at it again i'm not sure if his positioning yesterday was a good reason to townread him

i need to recheck the exasperation too

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

???
If you could please stop misrepping I'd appreciate it
If I had a working theory which I firmly believe in I'd be voting you

Am I?

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

What is it with you and no lynching?

What is it with you and xtoxm!?

Wtf is it with you and not wanting to see Saudade lynched!?!?!?!?

It's called
An opinion
Democrats, etc etc

Also it's 3.34 am haaaaaaaaaghhh

.....???????

12 alive
5 confirmed town

Means 4 scum in 7 players remaining

Do the math.

Intrigue me
How did we get to 5 conftowns
Just yesterday I was told it is 2
And then we agreed on 0

Why are you guys stupid

i think it was these posts (or more accurately, 1st, 3rd, and 4th)
but looking at them again i don't see them as townie as i did at the time

and the 2nd post reminded me about the no lynch thing which was god-awful

[skitter30]

ok i think i'm willing to explore this
VOTE: shos

for the record i explicitly do not think math is town, i just want that to be very clear