Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[teacher]

Yea, Im diving Math's day rn, and am kinda coming out the same, but will write on it.

[skitter30]

cool i'll be around for a bit more but i have to go to sleep soon

[MathBlade]

Gonna be afk all day Monday so use it as you will.

I still don’t see any cases or reasoning for shos scum. Just complaining that you can’t lynch me and don’t want to vote RCE in a whole lot of words without addressing the probability problems.

The closest you’ve said is we can’t know what happened, which is true. But you’re still not addressing the probability problem in that RCE trying to kill another player is the most probable event occurring assuming Bella’s claim is true.

Even if we assume RCE is town.

You then need to address why scum!shos + scum!saud shoots RCE or me. If you can’t do that then your reads are very likely wrong.

It’s not a matter of saying they could have and drop it. You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up here. If you want the shos wagon to take off you need to do that. Because right now it reads like the RC wagon yesterday. Me being pushing a wagon scum want rather than Saud. They hop on. RC pushes Saud. Saud is winning. Scum shop for counter wagons but RCE stays on RC hoping it would take off.

With the theory RCE scum having failed to kill RC the first time it’s much more likely they strongmanned RC to get rid of the PR and tried to kill him N1.

Until and unless you can explain what happens in a town RCE world to that kind of level it’s going to look like hogwash.

I have work and D&D tomorrow so you should be able to formulate a theory if you’re right. I just don’t think you are.

And I disagree on monopolizing things but consider this similar to what RC did with Saud. Floor is yours prove the theory wrong.

[RCEnigma]

I was waiting on Skitter but I missed her.

sorry, my life has been busier than usual recently
i'll be around for a bit more tonight

anything in particular u wanna talk to me about ?

I didn't have anything particular in mind. Wanted your thoughts on how the day was playing out, what you're current solve was, general stuff.

[RCEnigma]

Gonna be afk all day Monday so use it as you will.

I still don’t see any cases or reasoning for shos scum. Just complaining that you can’t lynch me and don’t want to vote RCE in a whole lot of words without addressing the probability problems.

The closest you’ve said is we can’t know what happened, which is true. But you’re still not addressing the probability problem in that RCE trying to kill another player is the most probable event occurring assuming Bella’s claim is true.

Even if we assume RCE is town.

You then need to address why scum!shos + scum!saud shoots RCE or me. If you can’t do that then your reads are very likely wrong.

It’s not a matter of saying they could have and drop it. You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up here. If you want the shos wagon to take off you need to do that. Because right now it reads like the RC wagon yesterday. Me being pushing a wagon scum want rather than Saud. They hop on. RC pushes Saud. Saud is winning. Scum shop for counter wagons but RCE stays on RC hoping it would take off.

With the theory RCE scum having failed to kill RC the first time it’s much more likely they strongmanned RC to get rid of the PR and tried to kill him N1.

Until and unless you can explain what happens in a town RCE world to that kind of level it’s going to look like hogwash.

I have work and D&D tomorrow so you should be able to formulate a theory if you’re right. I just don’t think you are.

And I disagree on monopolizing things but consider this similar to what RC did with Saud. Floor is yours prove the theory wrong.

Jingle had a post about this and in summary it's a 1/12 chance strictly by numbers and something something that amounts to very little after the game started since we aren't robots and the values change as scum are going to give their subjective input in regards to the nightkill.

Someone else brought that point up earlier I can't remember who though, maybe Xtoxm.

[implosion]

Spoiler: peer into the everlasting infomercial

Vote Count 3.6

RCEnigma

(3): MathBlade, Flopz, shos

shos

(2): teacher, skitter30

Not Voting (5): RCEnigma, Aristophanes, Bellaphant, Xtoxm, Iconeum

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

[teacher]

OK, I definitely faded at the end of this, but my review of Math's D3 in depth was interesting.

Lets just start with some surface level contradictions:

• RC is "literally one person" whom we should not "worship" 6669. No, we should follow RC. 7302
  
• RC was scumreading Skitter at EoD. 6972 6973. No, RC was FoSing RCE. 7292 7304
  
• Strongman IS the response to two protectives. 6697 No, strongman is NOT the response to two protectives. 7012; 7021
  
• 3 PRs is normal. 6898 No, 3 PRs is overpowered. 6984
  
• Acknowledges everyone has claimed. 68486898. No, “there may also be some PR claims hidden.” 6989; 6994
  (never mind that 3 PRs would already be OP -- or wouldnt -- depending on which of the past bullet you believe).
  
• Math’s D1 readslists 586 677. Math D3: “I don’t operate like that [give readslists]. It would be bullshit.” 7175

ITs the last bullet -- readslists -- that I want to focus on. Its because he needs to be able to push basically whomever the hell he wants. So far today he has called the following players scum:

• shos 6659; 6666
  
• xtomx 6789; 6803
  
• Ico 6816; 6820; 6864; 6911; 6967; 6987
  
• Skitter 6831 6967 6972 7064 7066
  
• Me (not linking, but clearly)
  
• RCE (same story)
  
• Bella - though primarily as a counterweight to Ico - 6967 7024 7029

That's quite literally EVERYBODY other than Ari and Flopz. Math's need for flexibility is also shown by his bizarre AF 9-4 theory. He mentions this theory in a bajillion posts. But here are the issues:

• Its quite obviously never the case with a town of this strength, ever, as I have shown. 7197; 7203
  
• He's pushing the traitor claim AT THE SAME TIME as pushing Bella/Ico, making town even weaker. 6848; 6864; 6874 (bella); 6911 (Ico); 6967; 6987; 7003; 7024; 7071; 7198
  
• He completely ignores that this theory would make tomorrow mylo on a mislynch, by suggesting town would have multiple more mislynches (including his own). 6911 7050 7246

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

[teacher]

VOTE: Math

[teacher]

I’ll do shos or ari as well. My vote won’t go outside those three.

[teacher]

You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up

Just like you did with (a) 9-4, (b) no two protectives, and (c) RCE obvs jailkept killer? Because that’s what you’ve been peddling all day. If that’s a logical world, then I’ve got plenty for you.

The simple fact is that I cannot make scum!Ari killing RCE/you for being unitown read and onto him any bit less likely than Killing RC. RC who was a likely lynch. RC who was destroying thread readability, and RC who was also a potential protective target (tbh, N1 I would have JKed him due to the dual scum-pr potential, and RC could have confirmed with a no result -@bella, why didn’t you pursue this?).

You keep repeating that RC was the obvious kill. I would not have killed him N1 after duck flipped town. Sure, there is reason to do it. But it’s simply not more likely. You saying it is 500 more times isn’t going to change my view.

[teacher]

tbh, N1 I would have JKed him [RC]to the dual scum-pr potential, and RC could have confirmed with a no result -@bella, why didn’t you pursue this?).

Just wanted the parenthetical question to bella actually called out.

[shos]

Why is this day not over yet
I'm practically skimming by now
I see votes on me
I find it hilarious

[shos]

Btw I just lost a cult game, if you guys wanna see me play scum

[Bellaphant]

Sorry teacher, can you reword that question? Is it 'why didn't I jk rc' or.. something else I'm not parsing.

[Iconeum]

VOTE: RCE

I think this is the only acceptable lynch today.
We need clarification about the N1 lack of a kill. The MOST likely option remains that RCE got blocked. If he flips scum, we don't have to lynch math, he's town.

[Iconeum]

OK, I definitely faded at the end of this, but my review of Math's D3 in depth was interesting.

Lets just start with some surface level contradictions:

• RC is "literally one person" whom we should not "worship" 6669. No, we should follow RC. 7302
  
• RC was scumreading Skitter at EoD. 6972 6973. No, RC was FoSing RCE. 7292 7304
  
• Strongman IS the response to two protectives. 6697 No, strongman is NOT the response to two protectives. 7012; 7021
  
• 3 PRs is normal. 6898 No, 3 PRs is overpowered. 6984
  
• Acknowledges everyone has claimed. 68486898. No, “there may also be some PR claims hidden.” 6989; 6994
  (never mind that 3 PRs would already be OP -- or wouldnt -- depending on which of the past bullet you believe).
  
• Math’s D1 readslists 586 677. Math D3: “I don’t operate like that [give readslists]. It would be bullshit.” 7175

ITs the last bullet -- readslists -- that I want to focus on. Its because he needs to be able to push basically whomever the hell he wants. So far today he has called the following players scum:

• shos 6659; 6666
  
• xtomx 6789; 6803
  
• Ico 6816; 6820; 6864; 6911; 6967; 6987
  
• Skitter 6831 6967 6972 7064 7066
  
• Me (not linking, but clearly)
  
• RCE (same story)
  
• Bella - though primarily as a counterweight to Ico - 6967 7024 7029

That's quite literally EVERYBODY other than Ari and Flopz. Math's need for flexibility is also shown by his bizarre AF 9-4 theory. He mentions this theory in a bajillion posts. But here are the issues:

• Its quite obviously never the case with a town of this strength, ever, as I have shown. 7197; 7203
  
• He's pushing the traitor claim AT THE SAME TIME as pushing Bella/Ico, making town even weaker. 6848; 6864; 6874 (bella); 6911 (Ico); 6967; 6987; 7003; 7024; 7071; 7198
  
• He completely ignores that this theory would make tomorrow mylo on a mislynch, by suggesting town would have multiple more mislynches (including his own). 6911 7050 7246

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

Especially the part about calling everyone scum. What exactly is scum!motivation in that accordign to you?

[Iconeum]

yeah yeah
more bla bla bla
can we continue with lynching RCE.

yes

anyway teacher, your comment about you cant get rce above 40% got me thinking.

10 alive, lets remove bella/ico, 8 suspects. 2 scum => 25% odds of scum, or from a personal perspective, removing oneself, 28.5% (im not sure if its actually fair to do this)

youre framing it as:
math nk: 33%
rce nk: 33%
rce makes kill: 33%

so theres only a 4.5% chance above rand that rce is scum. not very significant right? wrong!

lets frame it another way.

12 slots alive n1. saud is known scum, so lets remove it from the nk pool, leaving 11.
remaining scum identities are unknown, so i think they have to be left in.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

when i think about it like this, theres no way to justify opposing the rce lynch bc of a tr.
81.8% is a massive improvement over rand.

i think this is the right way to model it, but i'd be interested in having my working proof read.
im more interested in the stats side than "player Y is 80% likely to be the nk bc i can read scums minds"

I townread xtoxm for this post. It really pings me with townie feelingqs.

Like if I could nuke RCE,Teacher,and Skitter and see their flips I think the game is over.

Agreed with this. RCE today, if scum then skitter next. But with teacher's last couple posts i'm really doubting this coudl be wolf as well.

I’ll do shos or ari as well. My vote won’t go outside those three.

wtf

[teacher]

Sorry teacher, can you reword that question? Is it 'why didn't I jk rc' or.. something else I'm not parsing.

Yea that’s it.

[teacher]

What exactly is scum!motivation in that accordign to you?

Seeing what sticks/board temp?

He starts on shos, the wagon from yesterday. Moves to xtomx on your push, then shifts to you (you! - who claimed doc and saved him) when xtomx isn’t happening due to the neighborize, etc. it’s just not a natural outlook to push both 9-4 and you scum, so it makes me feel like he’s intentionally shading the locktown.

[Iconeum]

What exactly is scum!motivation in that accordign to you?

Seeing what sticks/board temp?

He starts on shos, the wagon from yesterday. Moves to xtomx on your push, then shifts to you (you! - who claimed doc and saved him) when xtomx isn’t happening due to the neighborize, etc. it’s just not a natural outlook to push both 9-4 and you scum, so it makes me feel like he’s intentionally shading the locktown.

all things a lot more likely to come from town then scum

[Iconeum]

I don't agree with literally any of the theory crafting math did, especially his setup analysis. It was plain bad/terrible/insane.

But if we look at the likelyhood of things, it's just a LOT more plausible that RCE got blocked then either of math/RCE got saved.

[shos]

Ico you shouldn't be townreading zxtomx for that post. Math is iioa and nai.

[Iconeum]

Ico you shouldn't be townreading zxtomx for that post. Math is iioa and nai.

xtoxm still town

his claim adds town points as well

shos/flopz/xtoxm/math probably all town

[Flopz]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

Skitter, you've been talking time and time again about you're scumreading me and I'm not really sure why. You kept bringing up about the "weird associations" between Me and RC but now he's been proven to be Town that doesn't hold water anymore. So can you tell me, at this moment in time, what are the reasons?

[Flopz]

I don't agree with literally any of the theory crafting math did, especially his setup analysis. It was plain bad/terrible/insane.

But if we look at the likelyhood of things, it's just a LOT more plausible that RCE got blocked then either of math/RCE got saved.

Hard agree to both of those points. I've said plenty of times that Maths' theories have been wild and they've just been getting wilder and wilder. However, I still TR him and I think a lot of that is due to tone more than anything.