Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[Flopz]

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

It seems to me less like an Opportunistic Scum that is trying to open as many possible mislynch opportunities as possible but more like a Townie with a very very very active imagination. Maths' ravings seem more like a crazed detective trying to publicly unravel the mystery than anything else (he's definitley try to see what sticks but it doesn't seem like it's in a disengenious way). He's been like this since the start of the game and I would like to hope that if he was scum he would try to go about this in a more subtle way.

[Bellaphant]

Bc I didn't believe his claim, teacher. He was being stupid about it, claiming a night one result, etc. I thought most people felt the same?he also wasn't an obvious night kill - his noise was killing the thread , I'd never have killed him as scum.

[Iconeum]

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

It seems to me less like an Opportunistic Scum that is trying to open as many possible mislynch opportunities as possible but more like a Townie with a very very very active imagination. Maths' ravings seem more like a crazed detective trying to publicly unravel the mystery than anything else (he's definitley try to see what sticks but it doesn't seem like it's in a disengenious way). He's been like this since the start of the game and I would like to hope that if he was scum he would try to go about this in a more subtle way.

it's time to lynch RCE, folks

[RCEnigma]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

Skitter, you've been talking time and time again about you're scumreading me and I'm not really sure why. You kept bringing up about the "weird associations" between Me and RC but now he's been proven to be Town that doesn't hold water anymore. So can you tell me, at this moment in time, what are the reasons?

Not to speak for Skitter but you had a reverse pocket thing going with yesterday. Mostly that you weren't concerned with RC being anything other than town white knighting you.

[shos]

it's time to lynch RCE, folks

it's time to lynch RCE, folks

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: rce
L-1

[MathBlade]

Can’t respond due to promise but I would like a chance to respond to teacher before day end assuming RCE is scum like I think he is so we can sort Teacher and Skitter.

[MathBlade]

Can’t respond due to promise but I would like a chance to respond to teacher before day end assuming RCE is scum like I think he is so we can sort Teacher and Skitter.

[teacher]

I’d also like the opportunity to give some closing thoughts but won’t be really on for a couple of hours.

[skitter30]

It’s not a matter of saying they could have and drop it. You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up here. If you want the shos wagon to take off you need to do that. Because right now it reads like the RC wagon yesterday. Me being pushing a wagon scum want rather than Saud. They hop on. RC pushes Saud. Saud is winning. Scum shop for counter wagons but RCE stays on RC hoping it would take off.

With the theory RCE scum having failed to kill RC the first time it’s much more likely they strongmanned RC to get rid of the PR and tried to kill him N1.

Until and unless you can explain what happens in a town RCE world to that kind of level it’s going to look like hogwash.

a few things:

-> i think you being saved is the least likely of the 3 universes

-> i am not at all convinced that rc was the obvious nk that night, given that at the end of day1 popular opinion was that rc was going to be lynched day2 on a duck townflip

-> i think that given that rce was p widely townread there's a decent chance he gets shot there, esp. if scum were angling for an rc mislynch the next day

-> i townread rce independantly on play and this nk thing doesn't really sway me super much since i can't know what happened that night and it's not something that is likely to get conclusively resolved. (i think that this interaction is what the detective is meant for, btw)

-> i fundementally don't think that pushing people off of the alien thing is a useful way of analyzing this situation, which is why i'm just not going down that path. it's wifom and is inherently based on assumptions that we cannot know to be true.

-> i am suspcious of you hard-pushing this

-> i doubt that saudade's slot had much influence on the nk given that he repped in after day2 started and tris had all but vanished at that point iirc

-> i agree that i probably am going wrong somewhere because i don't think that i can make a 3way team involving saudade out of my current scum pool. i don't think i'm wrong on rce tho

-> i do not think i will be lynching today given that i feel that most of the suspicion on his slot is based on a mechanical-maybe-guilty that cannot be verified, which is thus very abusable by scum

-> as far as i can tell people aren't actually scumreading him on play, his whole wagon basically sprung up because of the alien thing, which makes me suspicious of the motivations of this wagon

-> i think he's town on play

[skitter30]

I was waiting on Skitter but I missed her.

sorry, my life has been busier than usual recently
i'll be around for a bit more tonight

anything in particular u wanna talk to me about ?

I didn't have anything particular in mind. Wanted your thoughts on how the day was playing out, what you're current solve was, general stuff.

don't like the wagon on you rn
currently looking in {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}, in roughly that order

[skitter30]

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

i'm p sure i made this point at some point
or at the very least i remember thinking it

VOTE: math

[skitter30]

Agreed with this. RCE today, if scum then skitter next. But with teacher's last couple posts i'm really doubting this coudl be wolf as well.

i feel like i'm living in some sort of bizarro land where only like teacher is makign sense

[skitter30]

Ico you shouldn't be townreading zxtomx for that post. Math is iioa and nai.

xtoxm still town

his claim adds town points as well

shos/flopz/xtoxm/math probably all town

this is problematic because that's like exactly my scum pool

[skitter30]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

Skitter, you've been talking time and time again about you're scumreading me and I'm not really sure why. You kept bringing up about the "weird associations" between Me and RC but now he's been proven to be Town that doesn't hold water anymore. So can you tell me, at this moment in time, what are the reasons?

i don't think you and rc were tvt
it's the sort of read i'm not wrong on
there was something very odd on your end of the interactiosn where you just kinda accepted his obvtown read on you when you weren't, and then started backing up his pushes/positions.

it's mostly this ^

[skitter30]

Not to speak for Skitter but you had a reverse pocket thing going with yesterday. Mostly that you weren't concerned with RC being anything other than town white knighting you.

yeah this is another way of wording it ^

[skitter30]

VOTE: rce
L-1

yeah this is bad

again i would like to repeat as loudly as i can that i do not like this wagon and think it is scum-driven

[skitter30]

also what happened to ari?
i feel like he's fallen off the face of the planet this dayphase

[teacher]

I dont like this lynch. Like at all. I think Ive made that plain.

If this flips scum, I'll voluntarily lynch myself. At that point is likely 7:1 and honestly we can afford to lose me and I have bad associatives.

If it flips town, however, Math I will expect you to sit down. You were pushing RCE yesterday and against a scum lynch. That lynch, however, didnt cause you to reevaluate at all -- you are still pushing RCE and the same potential partners. When you are wrong, you have to learn.

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

I remain of the belief that Math-Ari contains 1 (and only 1) scum. I also think the board should revisit the broad VCAs I provided in 6953 -- the flopz wagon, the ari wagon, the shos wagon, and the EoD wagons in particular. IF Im alive, I will flesh out my take.

IF RCE!Town, my belief is that the likely teams are (Ari-Shos) or (Math-flopz).

[skitter30]

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

yes i would like to highlight this point as well ^

[skitter30]

I remain of the belief that Math-Ari contains 1 (and only 1) scum. I also think the board should revisit the broad VCAs I provided in 6953 -- the flopz wagon, the ari wagon, the shos wagon, and the EoD wagons in particular. IF Im alive, I will flesh out my take.

also i am not convinced i see / understand this take

but i am kinda starting to revisit my ari read - his disinterest in the game has kinda coincided with a scum lynch i'm realizing, which is moderately concerning me

[teacher]

I know you dont by transitive VCA -- its something that has definitely worked for me, but I cant even articulate it that well.

Mostly, its the Ari wagon arond VC 1.14. AT that point, the largest wagon is either a scum motivated wagon (Flopz/Math) or its on scum (Ari). I then combine that with the other large wagons -1.8 (where I see Math) and 1.19 (same) - and think it could be Math. But, on the other hand, the EoD counterwagon is ALL PR!claims, me (known!town to me), and Math. Basically I think this shows one of the two of them have be scum.

I cant really sell it, but I know I buy it and it holds true for me across games fwiw.

[RCEnigma]

Agreed with this. RCE today, if scum then skitter next. But with teacher's last couple posts i'm really doubting this coudl be wolf as well.

i feel like i'm living in some sort of bizarro land where only like teacher is makign sense

[teacher]

thats kind of a left-handed compliment, but Ill take it I guess

[RCEnigma]

I thought about adding that you make sense to me just in general since it did seem backhanded. But I know Skitter didn't mean it that way.