Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[skitter30]

rce if you get lynched today where ought we be looking tomorrow ?

[skitter30]

thats kind of a left-handed compliment, but Ill take it I guess

oh sorry i didn't mean it back-handedly, i meant that everyone else's approach to today has just been like ????

[teacher]

Those voting RCE are, to my feel, doing so based on one of two mechanical fallacies:

The Jailkeeper fallacy - namely that after a no-kill, the jailed is more likely killer than killee. The problem is that a good JK protects in the same likely kill pool that scum hunt in. This dramatically increases the odds of their targets coinciding (if, as I posit here, there is in reality a 3.5 person save/kill pool, the odds are quite close). To be clear, the odds still favor a kept killer over a save, even taking reads into account. But the odds are close enough that, when you add in the additional variable of this game -- a doc!save rather than the JK having an effect -- the difference becomes negligible.

The RC Kill fallacy -- RC must have been the N1 target since hes good town who claimed power. I have explained the problems with this, including the expected mislynch D2, the weakness of the PR, and the way RC was drowning the game/separating town.

I'd like, before the hammer falls, to have those voting RCE to explain why/how they reason out of these issues, especially the first. Because Ive seen alot of mech reasoning, but none that purports to take into account the fact that the real target pool/odds are quite different than the abstract one. Maybe Im hoping for too much, but Ico's blind insistance on the first, without confronting it, and xtomx's complete blind vote are bugging me.

Pedit: I knew it wasnt meant that way, was just playing around.

[RCEnigma]

I found looking back through Tris iso more to connect them to Ari than to Math. But I did also come across Maths townblock of plum/Tris and plum has been a rigid townread for math from day 1 this game. Which only really indicates alignment if math is scum. So in both math/Ari math/shos there can be 1 but it works more like.

Ari red -> math town, shos +equity
Ari green -> math/Shos unresolved

Math green -> Ari +equity, shos unresolved
Math red -> Ari green, Shos +town eq

Shos green -> Ari unresolved, math +equity
Shos red -> Ari unresolved, Math +town equity unironically?

I don't find math hard defending shos all game as partner indicative in the sense it's overtly obvious.

[RCEnigma]

rce if you get lynched today where ought we be looking tomorrow ?

I wouldn't go Flopz tomorrow. I'm trusting RCs read there and I'm inclined to agree it's how newer players interact with RC in general outside of the newbie queue. That said like I got the same vibe so I know exactly where your read is coming from I just think with that specific interaction taken out of the equation the rest of his play makes sense as newer town.

I think teacher is on the right track. Ari is a vital piece of tomorrow's solve so if you need to do some night digging do that. The way he interacted with saudade is a good base but if you can pick anything else apart it's worth it.

[implosion]

Spoiler: gallant vortex

Vote Count 3.7

RCEnigma

(5): MathBlade, Flopz, shos, Iconeum, Xtoxm

MathBlade

(2): teacher, skitter30

Not Voting (3): RCEnigma, Aristophanes, Bellaphant

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

[Aristophanes]

Alright, I'm starting at 10 pages before which is pg 242 for the record. Let's do this!

Honestly

I think RCE Shos Saudade solves the game more cleanly than anything else

I mean, I like this solve and want shos today but ya know, might have to settle I guess.

Is Nancy Drew following the game? Can I have her thoughts?

I don;t think this was the spot but RC asked for thoughts on Skitter from Nancy before he died and while she had a hard time explaining it, felt a genuine tone from skitter and as if there was a lack of confbias in their reads which is town indicative. I know RC is dead but I wanted to loop around to this answer in his honour.

There's no point in lynching RC today, Math. I'd want to. But there's no point.

Either he's town PR, and he dies tonight. Or he's scum, and we lynch him tomorrow.

Do you think it's better to get rid of him today?

So I'm probably not catching up fully tonight. Walking 3 miles to and from work is exhausting me.

But I do want to nip this in the bud.

This is what sets the foundation for a future narrative. Which is a world where RC doesn't die until end game because "scum are leaving him as a mislynch.".

RC never eats a nightkill this game because even as a claimed investigative his result is not credible. So it's on town to deal with. He is no longer self resolving.

I'm pushing there. I'll case it or whatever when I get the chance. Also burn openwolf Ari.

This is when we were going after Plum btw. Fine with both wagons, also pushing Me/Ari as SvS when I really don't think it made sense as a real viewpoint but it made a lot more sense from the point of view as scum who wants to have as much weight behind both potential mislynches they're pushing at the same time.

Oof! The cringe value of these two RCE posts are incredible! Especially with retrospect!

Why is RC still alive? -RCE/Jingle 2020

Because I suck at the wordy words
And I am exhausted.

And I feel so betrayed by RL I don’t have the time to devote to this.

*vote RCE for President*

Especially since everyone was townreading RCE but now all of a sudden not from RCE.

Still going to enjoy the weekend.

I may hammer if Saude gets to L-1 just to end the day but it’s a silly wagon and Saude is town.

Hey man, I never followed up but I hope everything IRL is calming down for you! I hate the thought of you feeling betrayed irl and I really hope the best for you <3
If you ever need, HMU

FL says this saudade wagon is dumb. The counterwagon is obvious. Also saudade specifically he says go ham.

Town on saudade.

Oh then the basically FL scumreads Icos iso, which I agreed with up until his plum push. But I'm not great at reading Ico. I think I've misread him every game we've played together as both alignments. So I was still considering it.

He also scumreads him on the basis that RC would be obscuring associates and RC/Skitter felt too blatant. Ergo the associatives would be simpler and less direct.

But I'll also go back and double check because that was a start of day read and I feel I'm misrepping it.

HOLD IT THERE

You're saying that Flavor Leaf, before Iconeum outed as having saved Mathblade, said that Iconeum made sense as scum with me?
But now, following Iconeum claiming protective on Mathblade (which should upend any read), Flavor Leaf has not given an updated read yet you're still giving it as if it's relevant?

That seems like something a town-aligned player would really really really not do!

He still reads Ico as your partner. Read the posts man, this is like 3 posts in a row where you are twisting posts to mean something else.

He still reads Ico as your partner. Read the posts man, this is like 3 posts in a row where you are twisting posts to mean something else.

You said this was a start of day read and you need to go back to read it. You also only cited things that happened during the first day regarding his read on us.

He also scumreads him on the basis that RC would be obscuring associates and RC/Skitter felt too blatant. Ergo the associatives would be simpler and less direct.

But I'll also go back and double check because that was a start of day read and I feel I'm misrepping it.

Referring to RC/Skitter<-> you said this was a start of day read for sure.

Oh then the basically FL scumreads Icos iso, which I agreed with up until his plum push. But I'm not great at reading Ico. I think I've misread him every game we've played together as both alignments. So I was still considering it.

This all happened D1.

So you said your read was a D1 read, you cited stuff happening D1, the only stuff you mentioned from D2 you explicitly said was a start of day read, and you make no commentary on anything that has happened since besides to follow up by saying that "oh FL still scumreads him". There's no way if this was a still scumreads him situation that your arguments wouldn't center around Ico's protective claim and my interactions with him and the surrounding claim because that's what is most relevant and important, not some random bullshit D1 or start of day.

A modern RC-Ico read would absolutely center around the protective claim and some sort of argument regarding my willingness to fake claim stuff or have my buddies fakeclaim stuff.
It's not an impossible read to have and actually there's a lot that could, hypothetically, be said about that read but the arguments given are really vague and meaningless and all ignore the most relevant data point

That was FLs read. I don't think it's likely but I also don't think he knows about Ico's doc claim.

so, again, it was a much earlier read that you have presented to mathblade as still relevant despite a major data point that should affect the read, as I pointed out

He saw there's a wagon on saudade, so I assume he's read some of the recent pages. I asked if he knows about the protective claim because he still scumreads ico. So idk what all he's read.

If you're adding FLs reads as a reason to scumread me then... Cool. But I don't care.

This kind of feels like a slam dunk tbh.
Like I skimmed it before because it was bolded by RC (Thanks Bae <3) and it felt off then. RCE just felt off in response and like he was floundering for an answer here. He is definitely not cool feing called out and I think there's good reason for that!

Even this discrediting now is oozing with scum.

Like, no.

YOU DONE MESSED UP A A RON

NOW TAKE YO ASS DOWN TO O SHAG HENNESSY'S OFFICE

take

yo ass

down

to

o

shag

henessy's

office

before i bust a club

up in yo butt

Lmfao I <3 u RC XD
Despite what I said about you posting too much, you were definitely the majority of my enjoyment of this game and I want you to know that <3

RC are you going to push RCE right now and blow up your Saude wagon?

If not what is your purpose behind this push here?

winning the game on d2 as opposed to relying on other players correctly sorting the game after d2.
if I was scum pushing a mislynch why would I care about trying to set up future mislynches when I know I'm going down after saudade anyway
if I'm town pushing a scum lynch and I want other townies to know who else is scum in the future, I absolutely care about calling out who the rest of the scum are

does that make sense to you

Truly the hero we needed!

VOTE: RCE

Looks like thatabout sums up the RC/RCE thing and I am totally in on RCE now.
Thanks for your sacrifice my friend! I should sheep you more often

[Aristophanes]

I'll catch up on the rest later

[Aristophanes]

I found looking back through Tris iso more to connect them to Ari than to Math. But I did also come across Maths townblock of plum/Tris and plum has been a rigid townread for math from day 1 this game. Which only really indicates alignment if math is scum. So in both math/Ari math/shos there can be 1 but it works more like.

Ari red -> math town, shos +equity
Ari green -> math/Shos unresolved

Math green -> Ari +equity, shos unresolved
Math red -> Ari green, Shos +town eq

Shos green -> Ari unresolved, math +equity
Shos red -> Ari unresolved, Math +town equity unironically?

I don't find math hard defending shos all game as partner indicative in the sense it's overtly obvious.

[teacher]

Bold hammer rather than let the questions be answered.

[Aristophanes]

Oh, looks like that was hammer...

Oh well, I suppose it's better this way!

Hope this flips red, I'll read up over the night maybe.

Ninja'd
Meh, I feel pretty good about this. What question isn't being answered now?

[Aristophanes]

also what happened to ari?
i feel like he's fallen off the face of the planet this dayphase

I've worked the last 8 days straight and got stood up on a date dealing a blow to my self esteem that took like 4 days to recover from tbh. And my buddy RC is dead so I mean, I was kinda bummed out by that.

Sorry.

[teacher]

I'd like, before the hammer falls, to have those voting RCE to explain why/how they reason out of these issues, especially the first.

@Ari - this question.

[implosion]

Spoiler: autonomous walrus essence

Vote Count 3.8 (FINAL)

RCEnigma

(6): MathBlade, Flopz, shos, Iconeum, Xtoxm, Aristophanes

MathBlade

(2): teacher, skitter30

Not Voting (2): RCEnigma, Bellaphant

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

[implosion]

RCEnigma has been lynched on day three. He was:

Spoiler: Flip

A

Vanilla Townie

.

Night actions are due 48 hours from now at 10:00 PM PST on Wednesday, in (expired on 2020-02-06 02:00:00). Please PM me all night actions.

[implosion]

Spoiler: corroborating the quotient

Bellaphant died night three. She was:

Spoiler: Flip

A

Town Night 1-2 Alien

.

It is now day four. Deadline is set for 1:00 AM PST in two weeks on Feburary 20, in (expired on 2020-02-20 05:00:00).

[Iconeum]

well this is awkward

[Iconeum]

and yes that's pretty much the entire extent of words i have right now

[Xtoxm]

Welp, sorry.

[shos]

This is disappointing

[Iconeum]

1 on 1 off wagon most likely?

[Iconeum]

math/teacher
math/skitter
ari/skitter
ari/teacher

if it's not one of these I think we already lost

[Iconeum]

yesterday i wasn't considering shos

[Iconeum]

jezus christ xtoxm iso is ridiculously bad

[Iconeum]

lit the only thing that made me townread him was his claim