Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Replica]

The amount of self-importance you place behind your opinion of the spares leading to nightkills is misplaced a problem for both actually reading you and for getting others to concur in your reads.

[Psyche]

i'll worry about how easy it is for you to read me when there's above-zero chance of me getting lynched
and i really doubt we'll have much trouble putting together a consensus read today

[Hectic]

The amount of self-importance you place behind your opinion of the spares leading to nightkills is misplaced a problem for both actually reading you and for getting others to concur in your reads.

yeah, pal, i know, there's not much point discussing it further but was important to state since Farkran was asking.

[Psyche]

Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.

[Farkran]

so the reason Chara's posting was town EoD yesterday was because i found myself agreeing with most of what it was saying while it also come off as natural.
and the way they made the flurry of posts when they said someone was calling their posting gold which inspired them to post more, the tone was really towny there.
i liked the progression on Psyche where Chara doubted Pscyhe actually found it so hard to believe that Suji would lie in a different game's PT, but then warmed up to him by pointing out 1079 was really town which i found really towny too.
also it's reason for reading me as town based on my annoyance at not asking Suji to hammer felt very genuine.
but honestly?
a lot of it also comes from them pushing me as a SPARE so much.
i don't see the loser-motivation in it's read there since SPARING me won't give it towncred because of no flip, and once i'm gone, my townread on Chara doesn't matter so will make it harder for it to get SPARED.
it's risky for it as a loser considering the 4 SPARE route with what we know is a town already SPARED, and no guarantee of getting SPARED the next day, unless it's exactly scum with Replica.
it was also pushing me as a SPARE over both Sherlock and Suji in 806 who were widely townread and very probably SPAREs the next day if they weren't SPARED then.
bad idea if they're going for 4 SPAREs as a loser and actually want to get SPARED at some point.
it can only nightkill one of them.
i guess a lot of this only makes sense from my perspective and i can see more now why Chara+Hectic works as a team in Farkran's mind.
but eh.
HEAL: Chara

Eh... i could believe that town!Hectic can townread Chara because it was pushing him earlier in d1, but i still have a hard time believing that town!Hectic has town!Chara as such a strong read, after that spare didn't actually go through also because of Chara itself. Not only because of Chara - it was Hectic who asked Suji not to hammer the spare - but Chara did unvote, and Hectic scumreaded that move enough to place a fight vote on it. Then Chara entered d2 voting for a Hectic spare again, and now Hectic wants to spare Chara. I can't move on from this, no matter how hard i try to see it from different angles. I respect Hectic as a player after i have seen him in action recently, and i think a genuine town tone is fully within his skill range even as scum. Perhaps i need to dive into some of his scumgames, but even if the tone is good, the confidence he has in his reads is just out of place to me. There are townier slots than Chara to spare, if that's the route of his choice. Why Chara specifically? Why not Replica or Amrun? From your POV, @Hectic, they should all be townier than Chara.

I mean, you started scumreading me because i wasn't willing to spare Suji after i called him IC (before his claim), correct? That was before my 1v1 with Replica - would you think me and Replica was SvS? I thank you for respecting our ability to fake our mutual frustration, but to be fair i think it would be much more believable to think of it as TvS or TvT, from your POV. The {TvT, TvS} odds contain only one S and you are fairly strong on that S being me, so how could Replica be scum in your eyes? He should be your highest townread at this point in time, yet, you're once again pushing Chara as your main spare. Is it because you have lost faith in my scumread, or in your Replica townread? If so, why?

And going through this from the other way around, i still think Chara should be way more paranoid of Hectic. Besides being tonally appropriate, Hectic's content is not top quality, and neither are his actions. Chara was not as confident as Replica, Hectic or Psyche about choosing the spare route, so why is it placing all its faith on a Hectic spare instead of exploring fight possibilities for today?

[Bingle]

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

Eh. It’s not so much who is engaged as who is rocking the boat, but sure.

Like, for example Amrun is definitely engaged and paddling, but nothing she’s doing seems likely to drop a big rock in the pond. Farkran (by virtue of amruns description of his play) seems like he’s trying to throw that rock.

That doesn’t make Amrun scum, btw. Town tunnel and maintain gamestate too.

[Bingle]

If I’m not misreading hec’s case it boils down to Hectic is t/t or s/s reading the hec/Chara interactions and knows he’s town via role pm. Is that more or less accurate?

[Hectic]

y'know, you're probably right and i'm putting too much stake in that.
that same logic probably extends to a few other players from yesterday now that i think about it.
i'm not really scumreading you anymore.
i can see why you find fault in this read now.

[Hectic]

If I’m not misreading hec’s case it boils down to Hectic is t/t or s/s reading the hec/Chara interactions and knows he’s town via role pm. Is that more or less accurate?

this is it pretty much.
reason i'm emphasising Chara over say Psyche or Chemist from yesterday is because Chara actively tried to push me to be SPARED and convinced others.
while Misty and Psyche said it more as passing opinions.
same goes for today.

[Psyche]

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

Eh. It’s not so much who is engaged as who is rocking the boat, but sure.

Like, for example Amrun is definitely engaged and paddling, but nothing she’s doing seems likely to drop a big rock in the pond. Farkran (by virtue of amruns description of his play) seems like he’s trying to throw that rock.

That doesn’t make Amrun scum, btw. Town tunnel and maintain gamestate too.

gosh man i like the intuitiveness of the idea but im just not sure
excited to see how it pans out

[Psyche]

oh right im supposed to be scumreading you
ah well

[Psyche]

could this dude really be town? gosh then who could be scum?

[Bingle]

Sort of, but there’s no consensus scumread on anyone so there’s no really popular way to go. Most people did townread Hectic so I would say that one qualifies.

That’s kinda my point. No one seems to really strongly believe anything, so weak pushes are completely normal. Fark is pushing something contentious and unpopular when the majority of people are just coasting along. Yours is the second strongest push and I get more of a sense of “Well, maybe this is right and there’s nothing better to go on” than any actual conviction it is right.

[Bingle]

As an aside, did you guys decide you wanted to go 4 spares or just that you wanted to go early spares?

[Farkran]

This is in direct contrast to my current gamesolve of Hectic/Chara though, and might be pointing towards Psyche and Replica more than anyone else. Why aren't those two voting towards their supported reads, given how strong they say they feel about them?

Tying back to your speculation that scum might be sitting and waiting for wagons to hop on, I think I've been pretty explicit why I've been hanging back. I strongly felt like I needed new angles and content to really make progress, one way was from Nacho showing up and giving a dearth of content, but now I've more settled for taking a step back to take a new perspective to ISOs. I'm very conscious that I tend to plow into the same ISOs over and over and run myself in circles; I'm trying to be more cerebral about how I approach reads.

The only strong read I also have is from Chara's interaction with me/Amrun, and as mentioned in my opening post I want more. I think you have a point that I'm nervous to commit to it. My goal for the day has been to get 1/2 really solid townreads, and not getting them has led to me being less proactive with my vote than I probably should be.

HEAL: Chara, still not eager to commit to it but Farkran is right that I should be making use of my vote.

Yeah, you respond very well (by well i mean, in a towny way) to pressure - at this point i think you would know that i mentioned you in the post you quoted here basically just to "summon" you back to the thread, am i correct? Yeah, i'm fairly confident Replica is town now. I will reread that Chara exchange with Amrun to see if you can have a point. Can you help me by highlighting the posts where you think there is almost conclusive evidence that Chara is worthy of your spare over any other player? I don't even want to bring back the spare vs fight argument, that's something we will probably never agree about - i just want to see we can find some common ground to work with because i no longer think you have enough scum equity to consider fighting you soon.

(lots of preview posts in-between)

[Hectic]

As an aside, did you guys decide you wanted to go 4 spares or just that you wanted to go early spares?

there's not really consensus on it.
half the people want 4 SPAREs and half want to FIGHT.

[Farkran]

chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be

that

certain he's town

I am having serious issues with Psyche. How are you certain of anything? You seem to be agreeing with what was consensus townread (Hectic) and consensus scumread (Bingle), yet you're not committing onto anything and you've been doing so since your very entrance. Now that the consensus around those slots is being questioned, you are completely lost. You seem to have no reads of your own and are just waiting for wagons to form up. Your posts have a very superficial internal consistency, but you pretty much do not offer content - you only answer when directly prodded, mostly by mocking the questions addressed to you. I mean... what are you waiting for?

The only player you were confident enough in sparing as to put your weight onto it was Sujimichi and, well, no shit there, it was the greatest townslip ever - followed by a FN claim. There was only one town PR, you know, that's not going to happen again.

[Psyche]

oh for me certain just means i'd feel safe betting the whole game on it. not 100%. could it be 80%? idk it's a tough thing to quantify a threshold like that; people have tried
i'd bet the whole game that you're town rn. and it'd be a good bet, wouldn't it, huh?

[Farkran]

I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

a lot of people were reading Suji and Sherlock both as strong town at that point.
SPARING me means one of those is very likely to get SPARED the next day.
it's not a good plan for loser!Chara who at that point knows all 3 of Hectic, Suji, Sherlock are town.
and doesn't know who the FN is who is another potential free SPARE.

This makes only one third of sense, by the way.

1) It only applies if you are town, but let's assume you are even if your role PM is for your eyes only;
2) It only applies if you assume scum!Chara was also going for a 4-spared route, but that's not what it was promoting in d1.

I mean before the Suji townslip, or the FN claim, there was no real reason to go for a 4-spared route except for those who were already very strong on pursuing a spare-heavy strategy, such as Replica - once again, your reasoning should be applied to Replica much more than it should be applied to Chara, from your POV.

[Psyche]

but again rn i just wanna explore. keep my mind open. engage w/ arguments. dance with the rhythm of all ur souls. flirt with nacho??? platonically.
in the end i agree that it'd be much better to find a scumread i feel ok betting the whole game on.

[Bingle]

As an aside, did you guys decide you wanted to go 4 spares or just that you wanted to go early spares?

there's not really consensus on it.
half the people want 4 SPAREs and half want to FIGHT.

Oh. Early spares is objectively correct and we should be shooting for 2-4 spares. If we think we can lock in four spares D1 FN doesn’t claim, otherwise FN claims and is spared D1. If we think we can 4 spares we should pick a strong town player to not be spared who can be FN’d and then ensure the FN gets spared at some point.

It’s kinda too late to act on most of that though.

[Psyche]

we didnt mean to spare the fn
the guy who got confirmed as town from his behavior just happen to also have the role guaranteeing he'd never be lynched
i'll never get over the bad luck of it all

[Psyche]

well you know what they say
when you skin a bear you get his fur too

[Bingle]

Oh. He shouldn’t have claimed before being spared, but burnt bridges and all that. It’s not a HUGE loss anyway, just a loss at a low probability of an IC in 3p Lylo if we hit 1 maf in 5 spares.

[Psyche]

damn it bingle