Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Farkran]

If I’m not misreading hec’s case it boils down to Hectic is t/t or s/s reading the hec/Chara interactions and knows he’s town via role pm. Is that more or less accurate?

Quite, but not entirely. At least with regards to the case i am pushing right now, both Hectic and Chara could be individually scummy on top having great associative equity. Scum!Hectic heavily implies scum!Chara because of the very weird interactions between the two, but town!Hectic does not clear town!Chara. Nor does it -necessarily- imply scum!Chara, for that matter. I have commented on Hectic's case in my previous post though, and i think you are correct if you analyze

his post only

.

However, i do not think there is anywhere near enough consensus on a sparing resolution for today - scum!Chara could count on a mislynch and cash in the credit for sparepushing town!Hectic in this scenario. Otherwise, it could just push for its partner d3 and d4, assuming we will allow it, or rely on wifom - there is enough disharmony to think such a strategy would work, if that is the case.

Currently i see very little reason to townread hectic though, and a red flip there goes a long way towards a correct solve. I am willing to explore different possibilities though - have you gathered some thoughts about the gamestate since you replaced in, besides sheeping me? I believe you are nullscum/scumleaning Amrun, am i correct? Have you got anything else?

[Psyche]

ive got like 4 non-townreads now
and honestly believing those 4 each have a 50% chance of being scum is a tough pill to swallow
could i
could i have a wrong read??

[Farkran]

Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.

oh for me certain just means i'd feel safe betting the whole game on it. not 100%. could it be 80%? idk it's a tough thing to quantify a threshold like that; people have tried
i'd bet the whole game that you're town rn. and it'd be a good bet, wouldn't it, huh?

So... why, from your POV, are you not sparing me right now, even if you don't agree with my reads? Are you afraid that i could be spared too quickly and end the day, or are you afraid that i would be spared, period?

I mean - i have already said multiple times that i do not want to pursue a spare, so i wouldn't even vote myself if it comes to that. As i said, there's too much disharmony to trust a 4-spared route even if it includes me and the FN. I wouldn't be surprised if, after sparing me, i saw Hectic or Chara joining the New Home and not turning it into an immediate town win.

[Psyche]

in general i don't vote much
guess i don't see the point of it unless i'm ready to see someone hammered now?
i'm already communicating my reads after all

besides i like the idea of not sparing you until later since i imagine scum will prefer to kill someone with better reads lol (IM SORRY)

[Farkran]

Meh

I think you're starting to run too much on this gimmick now that i have pointed it out, but whatever. I'll give you a honest answer: forming wagons helps summarizing and advancing the gamestate. Wagon positions, counterwagons, transparency of progression can contribute greatly to the purpose of catching scum. Even quickhammers could be more helpful than a day stalling. I should not need to teach you how scum could be forced to bus his partner because his wagon is gaining momentum, or check if they had decided to deflect the wagon onto someone else instead. Wagons are useful today, but even moreso tomorrow - figuratively speaking, when you get a red flip and look back for associatives.

I do agree though, that if i had to be spared, i wish to be spared last. If i am nked before then, you know what to do.

[Psyche]

i get it i get it it's just so hard gimme a day ill spare someone maybe even fight someone it'll be rad

[Bingle]

I was more talking about hectics case on Chara than yours on hectic.

I’m tr-ing you. I want to know why Hectic is being tr-d because that tells me a lot of what’s going on with him, but I don’t actually know if he’s town or scum. I’d prefer he post the tldr of why he was put to s-1 because that’s a less biased account than someone either for or against the wagon (or at least the bias is known, I guess it’s still the same amount of bias). Psyche and Amrun aren’t S/S and I thought psyche was the more likely scum of the pair because it seemed like he was trying to pour gas on a dumpster fire more than actually solve anything, but that’s kinda changed recently. I do think there is likely to be one scum in them atm.

Someone said hectics Chara argument applies more to others than Chara which is a fairly good argument to not spare on unless the other flips town imo, and means we should be looking at the others for town (rep I think?).

[Psyche]

why do you do this to me bingle
you were the chosen one
it was said that you would flip as scum not convincingly hunt for them
bring balance to my readlist, not leave it in darkness

[Hectic]

sure thing, pal.
tldr:
Nacho townread us very early mainly for our gimmick
Chemist and Chara agreed early iirc
the game was slow early on and i was very active which is part of it i think
i recall Replica thought my progression was good on early reads like Sherlock
that's what i can remember for reasons up to being put on L-1

[Bingle]

why do you do this to me bingle
you were the chosen one
it was said that you would flip as scum not convincingly hunt for them
bring balance to my readlist, not leave it in darkness

I told you halfassed Bingle was superior to a no assed slot.

[Bingle]

sure thing, pal.
tldr:
Nacho townread us very early mainly for our gimmick
Chemist and Chara agreed early iirc
the game was slow early on and i was very active which is part of it i think
i recall Replica thought my progression was good on early reads like Sherlock
that's what i can remember for reasons up to being put on L-1

So 3/4 would be Rvs strength? Why would qh-ing an Rvs sparewagon not be sketch?

[Hectic]

i was on L-1 up till a few days before deadline
it wasn't an RVS wagon
the game was slow when Suji offered to hammer but there were a couple of replacements who hadn't spoken yet

[Psyche]

no no i take credit my pressure campaign brought out five-eighths-assed bingle

[Amrun]

Sort of, but there’s no consensus scumread on anyone so there’s no really popular way to go. Most people did townread Hectic so I would say that one qualifies.

That’s kinda my point. No one seems to really strongly believe anything, so weak pushes are completely normal. Fark is pushing something contentious and unpopular when the majority of people are just coasting along. Yours is the second strongest push and I get more of a sense of “Well, maybe this is right and there’s nothing better to go on” than any actual conviction it is right.

I understand the thought process behind TRing Fark for this, I just think there’s quite a number of people who would do this as scum, me included.


And no, I’m not fire and brimstone level of conviction on your slot, not by any means. Faking fire and brimstone is very easy. Can you give me some sort of scum motivation for providing counterpoints to my own arguments, occasionally?

I am sharing my full thoughts, whether they’re sure or not, contradictory or not. I am searching for the truth, not to be ~right~. If I was fully sure on alimdia, I would have a more convincing case. I’m not going to lie about my level of surety. That doesn’t make it not the best lynch for the day, especially when dealing with PoE.

I am not sure enough on anyone to spare them, either.

[Psyche]

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

[Bingle]

And no, I’m not fire and brimstone level of conviction on your slot, not by any means. Faking fire and brimstone is very easy. Can you give me some sort of scum motivation for providing counterpoints to my own arguments, occasionally?

I... agree? The motivation for faking confidence as both alignments is it makes the wagon more likely to go through. The motivation for not faking confidence as scum is less splashback when/if I flip town. The motivation for not faking confidence as town is not being confident in your read. I tend towards faking the confidence as both, but mostly the point to pointing out you don’t seem confident is because it colors my perceptions of people interacting with your push.

The reason you’re >rand scum in a vacuum is because you’re going after a lhf lurkerslot I know to be town in a way that lets you have minimal blowback as scum. You’ll note from the fact I’m still sheeping a case I admittedly haven’t been reading much of how strong that read actually is.

[Bingle]

i was on L-1 up till a few days before deadline
it wasn't an RVS wagon
the game was slow when Suji offered to hammer but there were a couple of replacements who hadn't spoken yet

sure thing, pal.
tldr:
Nacho townread us very early mainly for our gimmick
Chemist and Chara agreed early iirc
the game was slow early on and i was very active which is part of it i think
i recall Replica thought my progression was good on early reads like Sherlock
that's what i can remember for reasons up to being put on L-1

You don’t see a disconnect between strength in reasons and length of wagon?

[Farkran]

I understand the thought process behind TRing Fark for this, I just think there’s quite a number of people who would do this as scum, me included.

This is the correct level of paranoia to have around me. Or anyone, really, unless you have such strong meta experience with a player that you can bypass standard ways of hunting. There are people with near unlimited scumranges. Townreading said people under certain circumstances is ok, but those reads should never be 100% strength level in one sense or the other. I think this also applies to Hectic, or Bingle for that matter. Or Amrun herself.

I do think Amrun has done some things that are quite hard to fake as scum though, more so than almi/bingle. In that 1v1 i would side with Amrun, but then again i sided with Amrun even when she was 1v1ing sujimichi.

@Amrun, new question for you: besides Almidia being your highest scumread and having associative equity with me, what kind of info would you expect to learn from either flip on that slot? From post 1108 it seems that a flip there would get you significantly closer to a gamesolve even without a VCA available so far - why?

[Farkran]

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

So i get that right now, i am your highest townread and amrun is your highest scumread?

I'm trying to help you to help me, you know

[Psyche]

i have a lot of rlly strong townreads its frankly concerning

[popsofctown]

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

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