Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Psyche]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

[Nachomamma8]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

it's way more of a win because scum are forced to submit a nightkill on themselves

and i'm well aware that my desire for a flashy win is a well-known Achilles heel of mine and thus i need people to keep my honest but i really do think that winning via scum being forced to select themselves as one of their nightkills is really fucking awesome

[Bingle]

Farkran also mentioned town having no reason to delay their own spare, though i disagree with that point pretty heavily given scum has even more reason not to delay their own spare.

For the record both town and scum have reasons to delay their own spare, especially D1.

Town could want to continue influencing the thread or they could think the spare route is likely to be infiltrated by mafia.

Scum, OTOH, need to continue looking town after being spared unless we literally spare both of them.

Fark, do you agree that this is/was your opinion? Has it changed? Why?

[Psyche]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

it's way more of a win because scum are forced to submit a nightkill on themselves

and i'm well aware that my desire for a flashy win is a well-known Achilles heel of mine and thus i need people to keep my honest but i really do think that winning via scum being forced to select themselves as one of their nightkills is really fucking awesome

im a flashy dude myself
but i think there's a lot of appeal in a defeat that's gradual and inevitable too

[Bingle]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

it's way more of a win because scum are forced to submit a nightkill on themselves

and i'm well aware that my desire for a flashy win is a well-known Achilles heel of mine and thus i need people to keep my honest but i really do think that winning via scum being forced to select themselves as one of their nightkills is really fucking awesome

It’s not a bad goal. It’s just that sequence wise sparing then lynching is more likely to work than killing then sparing.

[Nachomamma8]

if i kill chemist now and chemist flips town then we know something is majorly fucked in the state of new york and it's time to put in work to make a chance

if we spare four people and we don't win, then we have no information about where or when everything went wrong

[Nachomamma8]

to make a change*

[Nachomamma8]

WHY FAKRAN IS FRIEND:

1)

In Fakran's opening, I really like how he was fairly scattered and combative and took a number of shots to the wall that obviously weren't popular - in particular, I liked how he went from calling Amrun his strongest townread to immediately attacking her two posts down the road (and thought that him getting concerned about her interacting with her top scumread was a reasonable line of inquiry and demonstrates him handling a bunch of different possibilities all at once). It's possible for scum to come out swinging on all cylinders in the way that he did here, but it's a remarkably risky move to take close to deadline since he's basically taken a swing at everyone who's anyone all at once - the level of conviction that resulted in "even a lynch on me is better than sparing!" is remarkably ballsy without solid theory to stand behind.

I like this post wrt Amrun from Farkran, and have based pieces of my read on Replica based on this reasoning exactly. If Farkran is scum I'm not sure he offers a townread like that which is so hard to back away from.

I think that this post is also a really weird and emotionally manipulative one if Farkran is scum here. Farkran has his feelings hurt a bit by Suji calling him "detrimental to town or a strong Mafia leader", and uses that as leverage to jab back and say that Suji wasn't acting like themselves.

It's also crazy hard for me to see something like this meta engagement bit and then launching into Replica being near certain because he spoke about the danger of people sheeping his vote and wagons creating coming from scum in a million billion years - again, that's sticking your neck way way out for absolutely no reason if scum - which of course comes in the middle of a bunch of Farkran prodding at various groups moving together (Hectic spare being equal to Farkran fight, etc) - there's just a lot of shit going on here if Farkran is scum - a ton of effort put into "showing progressions and showing that he's willing to push reads" but not a lot of effort into an actual scum agenda.

Loved the salty response here - that shit was pure.

Farkran coming out with guns ablazing against you/Replica/Hectic here makes no fucking sense if Farkran is scum here; there's definitely diminishing returns associated with being townread for being crazy in this setup (not likely to get spared if you go too far off the ranch). And I can go on if you'd like but the whole read is along the same lines - Fakran is extraordinarily genuine and taking a very very absurd track if scum, Fakran also has pretty excellent progressions on reads if scum and also tends to run through a large # of possible scum worlds all at once that surface now and again in his ISO. Fakran is almost certainly town.

[Nachomamma8]

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

Why do you think Farkran as scum is going all in on this argument to paint Replica as scum?
Like, I agree very strongly with your perspective on the argument and have absolutely no idea why Farkran feels as strongly about it as he does, but I also can't see Farkran being scum here and the danger post being the straw that broke the camel's back and resulting in the "I don't care if this is vanity" vote that it did.

it's true it's a weird tactic to take as scum, but i can't imagine town thinking this way. for me it has less to do with the spare vs. fight discussion and more that his points neglect looking for reasons for the progression, and miss (or outright omit) obvious things. i thought it might be a playstyle issue yesterday, and i did feel like i had genuinely confused Farkran, but i'm not seeing any sign of that here.

you know this is no good. i've mislynched some people for some crazy ass fucked up reasons before. i've gotten mislynched as confirmed town going into LyLo because i told the two unconfirmed town to cross-vote. scum has no motivation to attack one of the more engaged members of the town by pretending that townhunting isn't a thing which means that some wires got crossed somewhere. fuck if i know what wires those are, but.

[Nachomamma8]

Ah alright

Hectic, I initially townread you because I liked your progression into solving.

fun fact - this isn't actually true.
chemist started reading Hectic as town roundabouts #24, at a time when Hectic hadn't done anything resembling solving.

[Nachomamma8]

i remember hearing some time ago that bert gets really bored and disengaged as scum. is that a false memory?

i miss bert.

[Nachomamma8]

My Nacho read is based on one central thing: I think they are having trouble making genuine reads. I don't like them repeatedly going "I disagree with this but Chemist is still town", it feels like them trying to justify a TMI townread, I don't like the abundance of mechanics talk, and I don't like their scum pool being mostly lurkers then them proceeding to lurk.

i disagreed with your townreads but thought you were town anyways.
you disagree with farkran's scumreads but think he's town anyways.

man that's crazy how life works right???

the mechanics talk attack is bullllllcrap. mechanics talk has been rampant throughout the game and a big proponent of it has been your second strongest townread Farkran. what makes mine scummy and his OK?

i don't understand why me having lurkers in my leftover pool is scummy or why my lurking after that point was scummy?



i don't think that this case is a case being presented by someone who is actually trying to figure out my alignment (or anyone else's, for that matter). i think that chemist needs to die by a shiny holy fire.

[Nachomamma8]

I think chemist’s scumread of nacho is fair. Why townread Farkran though?

is it though

[Nachomamma8]

the fakran push on chara/replica/hectic got away from me about 50 pages ago. i'm kinda weirded out by how bingle is down to clown with that.

[Nachomamma8]

Why was Sherlock killed last night?

I appreciate that, failing a full catchup, you've switched gears to trying to pick up the pieces as you go.

Respectfully, though, I think you need to start at the "What am I confused by, what am I struggling with, and why am I finding it so difficult?" questions rather than trying to grab hold of the first thing you see.

your respectful advice is rejected - drunk nacho will try to catch up however drunk nacho will try to catch up.

[Nachomamma8]

THESE ARE ALL OF THE POSTS THAT HECTIC HAS MADE AS A BAD GUY EVER:

Spoiler: look

Conflict of Interest:

This is my first game on this site, but I've played a few games on my university's mafia society forum. I think my chances are lower than average.

All the hydras in this game scare me; are hydras harder or easier to read than an individual?

Also, why is it good to claim bp straight away? My understanding is that it'd be a confirmed town that is risky to shoot at by mafia in the night, but couldn't mafia then have a roleblocker, given they're in the same column?

Honestly, I haven't read through the thread properly yet because I was about to sleep. I'll be back in 12 hours.

I think I may have bit off more than I can chew with this game. @mods: Gonna have to request a replacement. Sorry everyone.

Hectic awoke with a start. His dreams had been filled with cults and bus drivers, and the transition into wakefulness took longer than normal.

His eyes adjusted to the surroundings and he groaned. It was a groan of a man who knew he had truly

fucked up

. The clock on the wall read 1pm.

1pm.

What did that mean? Well, it meant he was going to be late to the mafia game of course. He could only imagine the bulky bandwagon that would've formed outside his door. This wasn't going to be fun.

He sighed and leapt off the bed, strolling with feigned confidence - just in case there were any hidden cameras - towards the desk on the opposite end of the room. Speaking of the room, it was clinical and extremely clean. Almost

too

clean for comfort. Did that mean he was a doctor this time?

He peered down at the dusty role PM that lay upon the desk. This was the moment of truth. He reluctantly picked it up, accepting whatever fate that the Old Gods had in store for him.

Bulletproof Lynchproof Town 10-shot Day Vigilante.

For a moment, Hectic simply stared at the sheet of paper. He hadn't recieved a role PM in many years and this one could very well be his last.

Finally, he set the PM down. It wasn't great, but it wasn't his worst either. Most importantly, it was something he could work with.

Hectic stuffed the PM into his pocket and gazed towards the door. It was metallic and complex, with buttons and levers spread across it's glistenening body. However, the words plastered on the front made what needed to be done self-explanatory.

Push to open.

It was time to make an entrance to the game. It was a good thing he carried around a Roman legionnaire's shield for times like these.

He angled the shield in front of him, and tentatively pushed the metallic door. It was heavier than a bus driver, but he managed to push through with sheer determination. He braced himself for the bandwagon that would surely come crashing into him.

Instead, he was met with nothing.

Well, nothing directly outside his room anyway. What he was instead greeted with was a booming grand hall filled with various wacky characters and creatures. 40 metallic doors, similar to Hectic's, were spread around the circular hall. A podium holding various household objects and weapons of mass destruction sat in the middle of the hall.

A crafty looking axolotyl scurried across the ground in front of him, winking as it passed. It looked so happy, and that warmed Hectic's lukewarm heart.

Hectic frowned as he noticed many of the players dual wielding hammers and sickles. Was this a new fad he had missed? If only he'd have entered the game on time.

Then, out of the corner of his eye, he made out a familiar face.

As Hectic and Aaron talked in hushed tones, a strange man sporting a magnificent beard and luscious long hair approached the pair. Hectic raised his hand to Aaron, indicating that they had company.

The man was... dancing. Non-stop. It was the same dance repeated on loop over and over. The man seemed to have a bottomless pool of energy.

"That must be tedious to carry around," the stranger said in a gruff voice.

"What?" Hectic replied cautiously, a little scared.

"Your legionnaire shield."

"Ah, right. I'd forgotten I was even holding it. It's kinda like an attachment to my body at this point."

"Guy needs to lose some weight ASAP."

"Uhh... that's a little rude, also did you really need to shout that last part?"

Nero Cain frowned, "No, not you. The bus driver."

"What bus driver?" Hectic replied, confusion stretched across his face.

"Never mind, I'm bored of this conversation. Bye."

And with that, the man danced away with those same moves on loop. It was truly an eerie sight, and several shivers were sent down Hectic's spine.

Aaron gave him a sombre look, "And that's one of the normal guys."

"Calling Nero one of the normal guys or implying he's town is just bad news."

Hearing the voice behind him, Hectic jumped out of his skin. He then sighed and started pulling his skin suit back on.

Aaron gave him a sympathetic look, "Anyway Hectic, I've got some scum to hunt so I'll talk to you later."

He gave Hectic a knowing nod. Hectic gave Aaron a knowing nod.

He turned around to examine whoever or

whatever

had snuck on him. It was... a Pokemon of some sort, at least he thought it was.

"Well?" asked Wooper, impatiently.

"I only just got here, so I kind of missed everything before this point. Sorry, do you mind filling me in on Nero?"

Amrun was a paranoid man. On an average Friday, he was crawled up in his nuclear bunker, far, far away from any sign of life.
But not today.

Today, Amrun was surrounding by bright lights and buffoons all around him, shrieking at the top of their voices. Why in the world had he decided to participate in this "real life mafia where the stakes are real and very dangerous and you may possible die - that's not a joke."?

Worst of all, he wasn't able to satiate his cravings ever since

the ban

.

The ban

had changed everything, and his withdrawal symptoms were only getting worse and worse.

He whimpered. He couldn't take it anymore, a tactical retreat back into his room was absolutely necessary here. He turned his back on the pokemon trainer riding a dragon that had been talking to him, and dashed straight for his room.

"Actual scum. Have we lunched amron yet?"

Amrun paid the trainer no mind. He burst into his room and shut the heavy door behind him. He let out a deep sigh and turned around.

It was beautiful. Tears of raw emotion started flowing down Amrun's cheeks. He let the flow freely, not bothering to wipe them away. He reached under his bed and pulled out a trunk filled with dozens upon dozens of hammers and sickles. There was

no way

he was going to let those capitalist pigs ban and take away his prized possessions.
Amrun sat there, cradling the rusty tools in his arms as he beamed up at the Leader of the Worker's Party. They could go without him for a few hours.

*Amrun was a paranoid lady. On an average Friday, she was crawled up in her nuclear bunker, far, far away from any sign of life.
But not today.

Today, Amrun was surrounding by bright lights and buffoons all around her, shrieking at the top of their voices. Why in the world had she decided to participate in this "real life mafia where the stakes are real and very dangerous and you may possible die - that's not a joke."?

Worst of all, she wasn't able to satiate her cravings ever since

the ban

.

The ban

had changed everything, and her withdrawal symptoms were only getting worse and worse.

She whimpered. She couldn't take it anymore, a tactical retreat back into her room was absolutely necessary here. She turned her back on the pokemon trainer riding a dragon that had been talking to her, and dashed straight for her room.

"Actual scum. Have we lunched amron yet?"

Amrun paid the trainer no mind. She burst into her room and shut the heavy door behind her. She let out a deep sigh and turned around.

It was beautiful. Tears of raw emotion started flowing down Amrun's cheeks. She let them flow freely, not bothering to wipe them away. She reached under her bed and pulled out a trunk filled with dozens upon dozens of hammers and sickles. There was

no way

she was going to let those capitalist pigs ban and take away her prized possessions.
Amrun sat there, cradling the rusty tools in her arms as she beamed up at the Leader of the Worker's Party. They could go without her for a few hours.

Hectic despised communists.

VOTE: Amrun

Doctor Drew wasn't having a great day. Despite locking himself in his room, he could still hear frantic yelling from outside. A chorus of cries calling for his untimely demise.

This did not amuse the good doctor. In fact, it

bemused

him. It bemused him to such an extent, that even thinking about that time he had accidentally hammered someone he had an innocent cop check on, but then had flipped as a mafia godfather, did not make him smile.

You're not even a real doctor.

Drew instinctively covered his ears, despite knowing it would do nothing to block out the voice in his head.

You're a disgrace and you should self-vote.

Drew violently shook his head. He wasn't quite sure if the voice was his own thoughts or if another player was somehow filling his head with negativity and malice, but he hadn't found a way to stop it since it started up a few hours ago.

DrDoLittle will always be the superior doctor.

He screamed. The voice knew all of his deepest darkest fears; it was going to drive him completely insane.

Don't worry. You may be lazy, unorganised, unloved and sn average doctor at best. But at least you're innocent in this game, right?

Drew had finally reached his breaking point: He entered a state of catatonia.

Korina climbed out from under the bed. The fool, how could he have assumed there was a voice inside his head. Speaking into his hand to create an ominous muffled voice had paid great dividends. That's what Drew got for calling cults bastard that one time. Also, he supposed he'd gained some good intel on his alignment.

Cults will never, ever be not bastard.

Korina frowned.

I get it, some people don't like meta. I get it, small sample size.
But you don't go from that ^^^ to this in such a short span of time. There's no way in hell Hectic is scum here and that shouldn't require a big ass case. Hectic is town. Hectic is town. Hectic is town. Hectic is town.

[Nachomamma8]

and i'm spinning my tires thinking if there's anything left to be done in order to win this game or anything else i need to post in order to help expedite us winning this game but there's not?

{Hectic, Psyche} are my Tier 1 spare now reads. Hectic is playing way outside of his range if scum and thus should be a slam dunk. Psyche's play around the town slip and catching a bunch of townfirms is extremely town.
{Chara, Farkran} are my Tier 2 spare later reads. These places might get paranoid thoughts in super outside worlds but these two would be top townreads in a normal game. In a world where Chemist is town and I'm apparently smoking some serious drugs then I might touch this group but otherwise nope most definitely not. Chara is my "extremely genuine engagement, like the cut of their jib" read whereas I've explained Farkran already but it boils down to extremely genuine paranoia and progression on that paranoia + playing the most batshit scumgame ever if scum.
{Amrun, Replica} are my Tier 3 "probably very likely town but who cares???" reads. Other than the whole "forgot bingle was in the game" thing Amrun and Replica have had some extremely genuine pushes and while I'm definitely more inclined to be paranoid thanks to wide scum ranges I really think in my heart either are scum hence a big "turn the world upside down" moment if Chemist turned out to be town.

I don't really have a scumread of Bingle. Bingle towning himself would change the landscape significantly, just haven't seen it yet.

Chemist is scum. I don't like the "scum are pushing LHF Pine" when no one was actually pushing Pine at the time. I don't like his recent posts; not only do they tonally feel flatter than shit, but the reads that he has today most certainly feel forced and I'm still bothered by the Hectic explanation even though it's something I recognize I probably shouldn't be.

but this just looks like the gamesolve to me
if there's anything horribly wrong let me know buuut

[Bingle]

HURT: popsofyourface

HEAL: hectic

Ok.

[Psyche]

damn it i dont want a target on my back im supposed to be controversial

[Replica]

Manna has fallen from heaven and the 'Cho has returned. Hype!

I'd really encourage you to look into alimdia meta. Bingle's posting, despite having a really bad understanding of the Amrun argument, hasn't been bad but alimdia's posting is heavily underrated imo and I don't get Psyche's scumread there. This is very likely a townslot imo.

I've got to keep it short tonight, and could probably let the posts stew, but I would say real fast that the "single thing" hangup isn't really applicable to you. I was using the Chemist read as a starting point, and starting somewhere and waiting for more is fine. If anything it applies to Farkran...but I kinda doubt it.

You townread the timing of Farkran's shove on me but the chronology really suggests you shouldn't. #500 followed by #605 represented a change towards me being more skeptical of him. He picked up on this in #616 and asked why he moved from townlean to null but potential scum. I explain that I think he'd be this forceful as mafia and I don't trust tonereading him, instead trusting more his votes and patterns He asks for my perceptions of my own play after I offer them, and 12 hours later comes back with a comprehensive attack based on the gap between my ideals/fears and my actual play. I'll skip how his point changed over time from those personality exploitations to "well spare is bad idk why you go for that over flips" for now since I've been over it enough.

It smacked completely of someone who feared a war coming and decided it would be advantageous to be the one to launch the first volley.

[Replica]

I'm glad to see you flip your read on Chemist but feel like you might have taken it too far the other way, I think metaing him of all people should actually be really useful.

I think defending the lurkers+once when he asked a "Is that why you...?" question over a more open-ended one were the only things of his that have made me frown. Thinking about it, I could see him trying to pocket Farkran by only tackling his half of our exchange late in Day 1 but that's really tenuous and goes against my single strongest read atm.

[Replica]

I've been putting off diving again into the Hectic ISO but if anything that should probably be top priority...

[Farkran]

Wow, i summoned nacho and he delivered on his promises. I just skimmed over the pages so far, order schedule is: meta dive hectic, then multipost answers.

[Farkran]

Ok, first of all WRT Hectic meta: the problem is not about the sample size being small, it's about where the sample size was taken from.

Let's make a doublecheck of factual evidence.

Hectic's join date on mafiascum:

July 01, 2019

Micro 881

,

starting date: July 07, 2019.

Very likely his true first game on site, if not the first forum mafia that he has ever played. I don't know what the mafia society forum is, but chances are he didn't lie about being a complete newbie.

D&D Mafia

, a multiball 40p game which i am almost certain Hectic played while playing at least 5 other games simultaneously.

I tried looking for more scumgames from Hectic but in his wiki he listed only town games and i don't think i am combing the 150 pages of his post history to find more. This is not even the point. The points are:

1. Hectic has played dozens of games in-between his first and this one. Have you checked MY first game on this site? Newbie 1951, go take a look and tell me the amount of difference there is from that game to this.
2. I have direct experience of the recent town!Hectic, in this game and this townhunt based game. Hectic didn't play poorly at all, it's clear that both his gimmicking and his playstyle have improved greatly, honestly i don't see any issue with scum!Hectic getting vastly better since the two games used as a comparison.

My problem with Hectic is exactly that people are providing a super strong townread of his slot for either no reason or extremely weak, very likely wrong reasons. This is what makes me think there was scum on his spare wagon to begin with, and seeing how it mostly overlapped MY fight wagon in d1 i pretty much think it's a given. I changed my mind for a while when i thought there were other slots with high scum equity such as Chemist and Replica, but they've recently improved greatly; and Psyche, whom i am changing my mind on day by day but ultimately is not a strong read at all.

I mean, why is Hectic getting SO MUCH townread for SO LITTLE reason? I have a very hard time believing slots such as Chara and Nacho when talking about Hectic, the same as i have when Hectic talks about Chara, and Hectic talked very rarely about Nacho overall.

If i forcibly had to assume Hectic is town, i don't see Chara and Nacho aligned together though. One of them could be scum, still leaning towards Chara, and the most plausible partner is always Psyche. I already went a long way explaining how it only requires 1 spared scum to screw this game big times, unless we went EXACTLY for 3 spared + 1 scum lynch and i still don't get HOW YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT YOU CAN ACCURATELY GET THAT SPECIFIC OUTCOME WITHOUT LITERALLY ANY RELEVANT FLIP.

I have more to say.

[Farkran]

although I still do not think that sparing is anything other than terrible for D1 and really dislike that his last meaningful activity was pushing that especially when he earlier called it out as suboptimal

that's just how the game turned out for me.
if i had a scumread that didn't suck i would have pursued it, but i didn't. instead i had a townread that i felt really good about. so i pushed the townread. i don't understand why that was a sticking point for anyone.

I wish to reiterate a random thought that i had mentioned earlier but i didn't gave it enough importance.

Why was sherlock killed over hectic, if hectic is THAT widely townread? Note that i didn't start pushing Hectic before night 1. I was mostly pushing Chara, Replica, and to some extent Psyche. Sherlock was widely townread too, but i think there is another significant difference: sherlock was really strong against spares - he only changed his mind when he noticed conftown!suji - whereas Hectic immediately entered d2 with a 4-spared route advertisement.