Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[MathBlade]

Almost like the main wagon is scum

[teacher]

Almost like the main wagon is scum

See that's the kinda crap you cant just say when the wagons are 2-1-1 and there are 4 not voting.

I'll get on tonight after the kiddos go down.

[shos]

Here's a quick layout of why a NL today is best.

1. We mislynch anyone today, assuming Ico is conftown
>>scum NK ico. we are in mylo - it is best to nolynch - and scum can pick who they want in lylo.
2. We no lynch today, assuming ico is conftown
>>OPTION 1: scum kill ico. Then we proceed with the same lynch, except we need 1 less townie to get this done, but alas, ico is gone, so it is literally the same input/output. exactly the same as 1.
>>OPTION 2: scum do not kill ico. then there's an option that ico saves someone, and we earn a mislynch, and if not, we NL and scum have to kill ico, thus giving us more control on who gets to lylo.

Either way, we don't *lose* anything by nolynching, and we *can* earn anything.

Also, if there's still some of you who do not 100% believe ico is town, this will solve it for you.

[skitter30]

If ico is town all we accomplished was losing a town voice overnight

[Xtoxm]

what the absolute nonsense are you talking about
we dont earn a mislynch by no lynching, a saved kill keeps the numbers the same

this nl push and its timing
is coming across as
ico is on you now, so its easier for you if theres a nl and ico is gone 2mo

[MathBlade]

Here's a quick layout of why a NL today is best.

1. We mislynch anyone today, assuming Ico is conftown
>>scum NK ico. we are in mylo - it is best to nolynch - and scum can pick who they want in lylo.
2. We no lynch today, assuming ico is conftown
>>OPTION 1: scum kill ico. Then we proceed with the same lynch, except we need 1 less townie to get this done, but alas, ico is gone, so it is literally the same input/output. exactly the same as 1.
>>OPTION 2: scum do not kill ico. then there's an option that ico saves someone, and we earn a mislynch, and if not, we NL and scum have to kill ico, thus giving us more control on who gets to lylo.

Either way, we don't *lose* anything by nolynching, and we *can* earn anything.

Also, if there's still some of you who do not 100% believe ico is town, this will solve it for you.

Yes a lynch carries a risk of mislynch but it also provides hints as to who scum is.

Why are you not considering the option that we lynch scum?

[skitter30]

Shos does ur team support no-lynching here or is this just you?

[MathBlade]

Almost like the main wagon is scum

See that's the kinda crap you cant just say when the wagons are 2-1-1 and there are 4 not voting.

I'll get on tonight after the kiddos go down.

Yes it absolutely is. Scum can’t hop on the main wagon
If they boost one alternate it is obvi mislynch
And the other wagon is scum too

That’s exactly what a 2-1-1 stall says.
Shos scum
Ari scum
I am the unsellable mislynch

[shos]

It's like nobody is even reading my posts again
Sigh

Skitter - you lose the voice, but you practically gain the vote, because every wagon that happens needs one less vote so it's easier to get a scum Lynch

Xtomx - you must be kidding me, in even numbers a saved kill buys is an extra mislynch

Math - we WILL Lynch, question is before or after a NL
After you have more info. Before you just assume
Obviously if we lunch scum our situation is better in both scenarios equally

Skitter - I already answered that my team no longer gives much input on this game

[Iconeum]

I'm still pro-NL

Here's a quick layout of why a NL today is best.

1. We mislynch anyone today, assuming Ico is conftown
>>scum NK ico. we are in mylo - it is best to nolynch - and scum can pick who they want in lylo.
2. We no lynch today, assuming ico is conftown
>>OPTION 1: scum kill ico. Then we proceed with the same lynch, except we need 1 less townie to get this done, but alas, ico is gone, so it is literally the same input/output. exactly the same as 1.
>>OPTION 2: scum do not kill ico. then there's an option that ico saves someone, and we earn a mislynch, and if not, we NL and scum have to kill ico, thus giving us more control on who gets to lylo.

Either way, we don't *lose* anything by nolynching, and we *can* earn anything.

Also, if there's still some of you who do not 100% believe ico is town, this will solve it for you.

@shos, why are you considering scum might not kill me for option 2 but not option 1?
Why are you not considering we might improve our odds by killing scum?
Are you aware that our only chance to WIN is LYNCHING scum? It's literally the only way to win.
Do you realize that if you no lynch now, and I die, it will become HARDER for you (if ur town) to lynch actual scum?

[Iconeum]

Skitter - you lose the voice, but you practically gain the vote, because every wagon that happens needs one less vote so it's easier to get a scum Lynch

@shos, specifically this. Can you look at it a little broader and do the actual math? It will take 1 less vote, but you will be down a town vote making lynching scum THAT much harder.

[Iconeum]

Xtomx - you must be kidding me, in even numbers a saved kill buys is an extra mislynch

type out the math for us please

[Iconeum]

Math - we WILL Lynch, question is before or after a NLAfter you have more info. Before you just assume

I want to know what information you think there is to gain from no lynching, then scum killing me. How will that make your next day lynch decision more informed?

[Iconeum]

and finally, @shos, i'm sorry but you are completely isolated in this no lynch nonsense.

If you don't start providing actual scumreads and alternatives to your own lynch, you will be hung. If ur town, that's not exactly good right?

So, start working on a solve and good lynch for today rather then try to sell a plan that literally NOBODY is gonna go thru with.

[Iconeum]

Have we massclaimed yet? Can we consider if it is beneficial to nolynch this day, get another person killed and limit our lynch pool?

Scum will most likelly kill the doc regardless of what happens in the day and eventually we are even, a nolynch will happen. So it's a question of when, and the sooner it happens the more info we have when we do Lynch. That doc claim is definitely not conftown, considering that RCE flipped town and so did bella. The only thing I can think of that makes one think he is conftown is an agenda of confirmation on a partner. He is by no means conftown.

Also if you expect me to remember shit in this game, sorry lads. So can anyone summarize the setup, including flips+claims?

wait you actually think i could still be lying?

have you seen massclaim? and the current flips? do you think this game is literally just a N1-2 alien and a 3-shot Joat vs mafia neighbourizer?

[Iconeum]

it's monday again, guys, so bare with me

by now you know most of my reads need to resurface before i start making some kind of sense lol

----

shos!scum: teacher/skitter/ari for partner
shos!town: nothing really changes? teacher/skitter/ari both scum in here?

I just solidly townread all of math/flopz/xtoxm

[implosion]

Spoiler: the ramblings of a triathlete

Vote Count 4.3

shos

(2): MathBlade, Iconeum

MathBlade

(1): skitter30

Aristophanes

(1): teacher

Not Voting (4): Aristophanes, shos, Xtoxm, Flopz

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 1:00 AM PST on the 20th, in (expired on 2020-02-20 05:00:00).

[shos]

Get your shit together in one post please, lol
Here is the Math

In order for scum to be lynched right now you need X votes. If we 'lose' you, we need 1 vote less, meaning any scumlynch wagon will be comprised of exactly the same people, except NOW we also have to convince you too to join, i.e., harder Lynch to achieve.

If scum shoot someone other than you, it's the same profit as the other option

Of course we might improve our odds of we Lynch scum, this is true regardless of when we nolynch. Basically, you shouldn't be counting acumlynches, what you should be counting is mislynches until you lose, as the other option is a question of 'what should we do of we won't, and that is useless clearly.

You have 1 mislynch left until you lose. Question is how you minimize the chance of that happening. For that you want town to be as able as possible to make the right decision and execute it. For this, town should
1. Be as informed as possible before trying the Lynch (=seeing your flip before taking a chance at a Lynch)
2. Be as executable as possible (=being in odd numbers)

Ergo nolynch ASAP is best right now. Despite the fact that it practically shuts you up, but that is avoidable because youtown should 100% assume you're getting killed tonight anyway, and as such, you should post any opinion you have before that


So our actions should be:
1. Decide that we NL today.
2. Discuss who we want to Lynch. After we have agreed, you sound your thoughts about what of they flip scum/town, and then we nolynch.
3. You probably die. Of you don't - grand, profit, and we restart all discussions to see what the best Lynch is with the new info. If you do, we continue with the said Lynch, and with it's result proceed to either lylo or a good 4v1 town position

[shos]

Have we massclaimed yet? Can we consider if it is beneficial to nolynch this day, get another person killed and limit our lynch pool?

Scum will most likelly kill the doc regardless of what happens in the day and eventually we are even, a nolynch will happen. So it's a question of when, and the sooner it happens the more info we have when we do Lynch. That doc claim is definitely not conftown, considering that RCE flipped town and so did bella. The only thing I can think of that makes one think he is conftown is an agenda of confirmation on a partner. He is by no means conftown.

Also if you expect me to remember shit in this game, sorry lads. So can anyone summarize the setup, including flips+claims?

wait you actually think i could still be lying?

have you seen massclaim? and the current flips? do you think this game is literally just a N1-2 alien and a 3-shot Joat vs mafia neighbourizer?

This is a normal. Alien+JOAT is pretty strong, multitasking neighboutizer is pretty weak. So far, I see no reason at all to believe your claim. VT doc...nope. could be, but that would mean remaining scum are powerful. But what powers would they need in such a setup? A strongman simply nullifies everything, seems too strong, perhaps n-shot. Rolecop could be, fits with the motion detector. Ninja maybe (JOAT had track) n-shot.

[Iconeum]

@Math and @Skitter

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

bella/ico - town
rce - i don't think scum reacts to this entire nk/alien thing the way he has
ari - i think is just town on meta
you - i'm not sure where it happened exactly but over the course of today (i.e. day3) you've become a townread too

which leaves {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}

math and flopz aren't doable today
and xtoxm i don't really townread on play but the neighborize kinda points to town
which kinda leaves shos. was townreading him for some of the stuff he was saying at daystart but as i mull it over i don't really remember why that was exactly

the very very early game thing pointed to {plum/tris}, and tris-slot/saudade did flip scum
and shos did very staunchly object to saudade in favor of xtoxm. i think that whole interaction means that shos/xtoxm can't be scum together
and saudade was trying to rile up rc as shos was getting wagoned

let me check daystart to see what i was thinking there, some parts of the game are starting to blur together in my head

I no longer think that we should lynch shos first today. His resistance to the saudade wagon was gross, but it's sucu an explicitly bad position for scum to take on a partner that i'm no longer convinced that they're svs

Also shos's exasperation at the gamestate at eod yesterday seems townie

this.
looking at it again i'm not sure if his positioning yesterday was a good reason to townread him

i need to recheck the exasperation too

Spoiler:

???
If you could please stop misrepping I'd appreciate it
If I had a working theory which I firmly believe in I'd be voting you

Am I?

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

What is it with you and no lynching?

What is it with you and xtoxm!?

Wtf is it with you and not wanting to see Saudade lynched!?!?!?!?

It's called
An opinion
Democrats, etc etc

Also it's 3.34 am haaaaaaaaaghhh

.....???????

12 alive
5 confirmed town

Means 4 scum in 7 players remaining

Do the math.

Intrigue me
How did we get to 5 conftowns
Just yesterday I was told it is 2
And then we agreed on 0

Why are you guys stupid

i think it was these posts (or more accurately, 1st, 3rd, and 4th)
but looking at them again i don't see them as townie as i did at the time

and the 2nd post reminded me about the no lynch thing which was god-awful

ok i think i'm willing to explore this
VOTE: shos

for the record i explicitly do not think math is town, i just want that to be very clear

If shos is scum, I think that p much clears the both of you. Skitter reconsidering to shos, and math hard pushing shos today could really help solve this game

. Skitter, despite maths shenanigans previous day, how do you feel about him pushing shos like this? @Math, your thoughts on skitter's feelings wrt shos?

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

yes i would like to highlight this point as well ^

I'm really scared of skitter + teacher, so if shos does flip town I think you guys need to lynch in these 2 tomorrow.

what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?

Math >>>>> shos >>> ari

@Skitter, math's entire solve right now is literally this, minus himself obviously. Like, literaly shos + ari. Can you at least engage with math over that?

[Iconeum]

Get your shit together in one post please, lol

[shos]

Also btw before o get back to work:

My reads
Skitter and teacher are locktown on my end. I townread you too ico.
Ari wiggles in my head for a while, was asking stuff about his latest meta my team but it appears it's NAI or something, still bugs me and his correlation with the flips is bad for him
Xtomx has been bad imo for a long while now
Math I believe is town but my Poe doesn't exclude him
Flopz
I forgot he existed

[Iconeum]

This is a normal. Alien+JOAT is pretty strong, multitasking neighboutizer is pretty weak. So far, I see no reason at all to believe your claim. VT doc...nope. could be, but that would mean remaining scum are powerful. But what powers would they need in such a setup? A strongman simply nullifies everything, seems too strong, perhaps n-shot. Rolecop could be, fits with the motion detector. Ninja maybe (JOAT had track) n-shot.

I'm unsure what to make of thos tho.

I think if town!shos, you only have 1 viable option right now: SORT ME.

If you think i'm scum fakeclaiming, and you are heavily implying this, you are doing nothing to actually make sure of this. You are ignoring and not talking about everything I did leading up to the claim. If you think I'm scum, you should be trying to get me lynched instead of opting to no lynch.

If you think I'm town, you should be looking for actual scum and NOT trying to get scum to do the work for you (which is exactly what you are trying to achieve: let scum narrow the pool for you).

[Iconeum]

Also btw before o get back to work:

My reads
Skitter and teacher are locktown on my end. I townread you too ico.
Ari wiggles in my head for a while, was asking stuff about his latest meta my team but it appears it's NAI or something, still bugs me and his correlation with the flips is bad for him
Xtomx has been bad imo for a long while now
Math I believe is town but my Poe doesn't exclude him
Flopz
I forgot he existed

You don't have a scumteam in your mind?
Like, this is the entire problem with your slot right now. Ur not trying to get a solve. You think xtoxm is bad, but you ain't discussing what makes him likely town (his claim).j
You forgot flopz existed THREE HUNDRED!! pages into this game? Bullshit. Even if this is true, why are you not reaching out to him?
Ari doesn't sit well with you? Show me ONE post you are trying to sort him in?

How are you playing to a town wincon?

[Iconeum]

cannot

resist

temptation

(sorrynotsorry)