Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Bingle]

Run tests on the other routes as well. If you take only EV into account, results will be roughly balanced. But i think flip info is superior to this particular EV difference in balancing.

When you talk about observed winrate, you mean statistical analysis, not gross random probability, correct? I'd be interested in reading some of that data. Besides, i also think it'd be a bit biased because, mostly, only good players are interested in playing mountainous. If we ran a 11v2 mountainous newbie matrix, results would be vastly different imo.

Route 2 is roughly equivalent to fn+1 shot vig +5vt v 2 goons.

Route 3 is “there is at least 1 scum in unspared players and at most 1 scum in spared players”, which is valuable associative information that helps with making an informed lynch.

Route 4 is vote for town. And yeah, is probably strictly worse than route 3.

[Hectic]

No, i'm not pushing them BECAUSE they are highly townread, and i'm not pushing Replica anymore. I'm pushing Hectic/Chara/Psyche AND now to a lesser extent Nacho because of their interactions with each other. Hectic's progression on Chara does not make sense, and vice versa. I wonder how you could say that scum!me originally planned to make myself a spare target today when i fighted with my heart and soul against any spare route from the moment i replaced in in d1. I do not care about being spared, unless i am the last one in a 4 spared route. I have said multiple times that i'd rather be lynched.

hi...
that's what you'll claim...
but to me it looks like you've entered this day with purpose casting paranoia at the most likely SPARE targets...

i still don't get why you don't understand my interactions with Chara...
i liked them early then slightly disliked them for the timing of their unvote...
then liked them again for their flurry of posts close to EoD, where i liked a lot of their opinions, and also them trying to push a SPARE on me like that has little scum motivation from my PoV...
especially after Suji and Sherlock were Sherlock townreads after the PT reveal...
Nacho is probably town for the same reason actually...
i don't see any scum motivation in his play with regards to him pushing me as a SPARE...
if he's scum, i'm an odd target to push and want out of the game of everyone if that makes sense...
and it's not like it'll get him much towncred so struggling to see why he does this as scum...
this same logic doesn't apply to everyone... it depends on the timing and the strength of the push...
for example Psyche has mentioned how i'm a good SPARE and that he should probably towncase me but not done much in actually trying to convince people...
same goes with Chemist, i think...
not saying that means they're scum, but it means they're a lot more likely to be scum who don't have actual conviction in pushing another SPARE through on a townie...
Jingle Jangle is looking a lot better so far for setup spec and progression on Farkran btw...

[Hectic]

not sure if this is wise but i'm kinda townreading Reploca for his recent memeing...
his random push on Bingle and then admitting he'll never get enough votes for this feels towny...
also i completely agree with his meta of Farkran...

[Farkran]

No, i'm not pushing them BECAUSE they are highly townread, and i'm not pushing Replica anymore. I'm pushing Hectic/Chara/Psyche AND now to a lesser extent Nacho because of their interactions with each other. Hectic's progression on Chara does not make sense, and vice versa. I wonder how you could say that scum!me originally planned to make myself a spare target today when i fighted with my heart and soul against any spare route from the moment i replaced in in d1. I do not care about being spared, unless i am the last one in a 4 spared route. I have said multiple times that i'd rather be lynched.

hi...
that's what you'll claim...
but to me it looks like you've entered this day with purpose casting paranoia at the most likely SPARE targets...

So... you started by accusing me of wanting to be spared, now that i entered d2 shading all the highest townread people. But to what purpose? Why scum!me would have trouble with town!hectic spare today? I would just kill the rest of the spare lineup until either me or my partner are included. In a 4 spared route, it's likely it will happen. In a 3 spared route, you do not know if you spared scum or not, because the two people will be removed unflipped, so... say i get removed, who and where do you lynch then? Spared/nonspared? Who? You will only have a couple lynches to work with, the last one in a mylo with a compulsive resolution (cannot no-lynch).

i still don't get why you don't understand my interactions with Chara...
i liked them early then slightly disliked them for the timing of their unvote...
then liked them again for their flurry of posts close to EoD, where i liked a lot of their opinions, and also them trying to push a SPARE on me like that has little scum motivation from my PoV...
especially after Suji and Sherlock were Sherlock townreads after the PT reveal...

...why would this be a reason for town!hectic to townread Chara? Of course scum would rather spare non-conftown over suji. They will need either someone to take the guilt when you get to new home and the game isn't over, or even better, change their mind at the last minute about town!hectic spare. Does this ring any bell? Your townread of Chara does not make sense, there are other slots that you should townread more than it, and your explanation does not help. Once again it seems that you are adjusting your reads to your convenience, why do you like only slots that townread you, and change your read when they stop townreading you? Why is Chara the only one worthy of a spare to you? Why not Replica, before this post? What's to like in the recent Replica that wasn't there before this post? Do you think that everyone who agrees with you is town, and those who don't are scum?

This is a flurry of mostly rhethorical questions, but ultimately they boil down to: who is scum? Why do you trust yourself, and people who are confident in a spare resolution if none of them want to talk about where is scum and what are they doing?

I would expect you of all people would be aware of this situation, given the recent town failure in the jester nightless game we played together.

for example Psyche has mentioned how i'm a good SPARE and that he should probably towncase me but not done much in actually trying to convince people...
same goes with Chemist, i think...
not saying that means they're scum, but it means they're a lot more likely to be scum who don't have actual conviction in pushing another SPARE through on a townie...

Would you push a 2 scum solve in {farkran, chemist, psyche}? Do you feel confident enough on this to go for a 4 spared route even when you reach 2v3 in day 4? Why?

[Hectic]

I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.

i actually said the opposite...
i said your objective probably wasn't to make yourself a SPARE target...
it was to derail the train...

[Hectic]

HEAL: Farkran
HURT: Nacho

Going with Farkran over hectic because I feel like my townread is more substantial

if you're scum, i can kinda see Misty being scum with you because of this...
this came after Jangle had expressed Farkran being town since you were actively pushing something...
and Amrun was saying you were probably town as well iirc...
Misty, could you go into your Farkran read a little more please...?
also ftr, i still think Psyche is town overall, mainly for the reaction to the Suji PT post thing...

[Farkran]

I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.

i actually said the opposite...
i said your objective probably wasn't to make yourself a SPARE target...
it was to derail the train...

Uhm... i actually misinterpreted that. I thought that by saying "i'm not sure if [...]" you meant to say it was a possibility that i wanted to be spared. By the way... yes, i do want to derail the spare train. But my purpose is not to deflect it onto another target, i just think sparing is wrong and we shouldn't do that. I would be much more comfortable talking about who to lynch, and why. I am significantly more... tolerant of slots who are willing to at least consider the fight option and talk about it, providing reasons for confidence about their scumreads, than those who just push for a spare route without even trying to think at what scum would do in this game. This alone wouldn't prove them town, but it takes effort to build fake towncases AND fake scumcases. It takes time, brain, checking back into your ISO for consistency, making sure that you have readily available excuses for when all your reads turn out to be wrong. If you force them to put up their maximum effort on a game, a lot of scum players might just either give up or slip. This isn't true for me, maybe for Amrun, but it is true for a lot of people and it is how i caught some. Such strategy also works for producing correct townreads - emotional responses are some of the most reliable towntells and that's why i now townread Replica even if i hate all his posting. Don't ask me why i'm not sparing Replica

[Amrun]

@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.

What part of: if we had two more townies than we started the game with we would still be EXPECTED to lose this as mountainous is a difficult concept? Being fine with mountainous is okay, I guess (although maybe don’t sign up for games you don’t want to play ) but actively screwing over the town because you don’t like the main conceit of the game really isn’t.

I think the best way to play the game will change throughout the game and vary with reads and gamestate. I’m not so mathematical about it. Due to current gamestate, we will probably end up sparing and I’ve shared who I’m willing to compromise on there.

This is pretty rich coming from someone who has trash reads and won’t read the game though. Kind of annoying.

[Bingle]

@ mod: V/la 3 days

[Replica]

I've got a lot to tackle today, hopefully I'll be back in force tomorrow. Some housekeeping until then...

Ah, yeah, give town two free spares and you easily get your scum partner on the third. This would have been very trivial for you, Day 1, replacing in and getting almost universally scumread until people started assuming your reads were too bad and nonsensical to be scum.

Did you just say that i would be scumread for quicksparing town? Twice?

Did you just say that scumpartners could not put solid distance between each other and pilot the gamestate that way, in case i get scumread for my quickspare?

Did you just say that quickhammers in general are always lynched the day after their deed?

You misread this. The first sentence reduces the strategy you suggested you'd do. The second pointed out the absurdity of doing it in the context of

what your scenario was on replace-in

Day 1. The loaded questions are also really terrible and nonsensical even under your misinterpretation.

This clearly shows your evident lack of experience with this game and psychology in general. Good luck playing with the assumption that town is always good and scum is always bad. If you are town in this game, you're doing a terrible job with your reads and strategies. If you're scum in this game, you are actually being good at getting townread because you are displaying what looks like genuine frustration. That's just how wrong you are regardless of your sincerity in this post.

Normally this is the type of thing that you shouldn't bother responding to but given your repeated statements about skill and drive to prove yourself to others, it might be worth highlighting that...I really don't care in the same way. I think the validation or praise of others is almost completely worthless. I have declined to participate in any sort of nomination or award process for the last 9 years of the 10 I have played. I have always only played for myself, and only in the last year or so started enjoying the teamwork aspect/socializing with others in a mafia context.

In short, I'm pretty okay with being an inexperienced mafia player, and uh, not well-versed in psychology, compared to you. Thinking that your scumplay in this game would be poor really isn't a personal insult-especially in a game in which you are purportedly town-and the fact that you continue to take it as such is honestly humorous.

[Replica]

Amrun has actually turned into probably the best friend I have in this day, minus maybe Chara.

My preference for spares is Bingle -> Chara -> Amrun/Hectic. Amrun is never sparing Bingle which is unfortunate. It sounds like Hectic is the most likely, with Nacho/Chara also willing to spare there this should give us 5.

I really don't feel superb about Hectic but at some point I guess I just have to toss the dice again here. Even assuming I'm right on Farkran I don't think Hectic is 100% town even if it helps.

My lynch choice if there is no spare coalition is obviously Farkran, with being open to Chemist/Nacho/Psyche in that order if the alternative is a lynch on a TR (Sorry Amrun, not getting a Bingle vote from me)

[Amrun]

Sad, so sad! I thought we were besties!!

[Amrun]

I would actually prefer a Chara spare to Hectic but Hectic seemed more viable.

[Amrun]

I would also vote for anyone in your lynch pool if it was viable, teplica

[Amrun]

*Replica

[Replica]

I guess with Hectic I just really wish he had more depth to his reads; the angles he's taking with reads on Chara, Nacho, Farkran, me, etc. have all been very straightforward with a little progression but not much nuance/life to them. They're flat but plausible, which is what makes me think them very easily fabricated. He's not making mistakes if he's scum, he's just...not very town.

Chara I feel better about even if I'm not 100% confident. We should have 4 votes there between me, Amrun, Chara, and Hectic, 5th comes from ?. Nacho has them as a tier 2 townread over Hectic but I can't remember where Psyche/Chemist/Bingle would stand here.

[Replica]

under Hectic*

[Psyche]

for example Psyche has mentioned how i'm a good SPARE and that he should probably towncase me but not done much in actually trying to convince people...

it's frankly a more tedious case to make than i first supposed

[Psyche]

HEAL: Bingle

[Amrun]

NO STOP

AHHHH

[Replica]

I really have no clue what is going on in Psyche's head but like, I guess I'll take it

[Chemist1422]

what is happening

[Amrun]

Will to play decreasing by the post

[Replica]

what is happening

I dunno, but you had alimdia/Bingle slotted as null and not having read their ISOs and you could do both me and Amrun a huge favor by trying to sort them

[Chemist1422]

got it