Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

@math:

can you get titus to explain this vc again?
if it's shos+flopz+saudade scared of me trying to lynch shos why weren't flopz + shos on me here, why were they wool-gathering on ari and not voting

also i don't udnerstand how the nka points to shos and flopz in particular

Left a ping for her.

[skitter30]

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

i have a math background ...
given that nobody is seriously considering ico as a possible lynch today, i think it's inherently suboptimal

[skitter30]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

[MathBlade]

My thoughts on Skitter’s feelings are she has seen me as scum
She is rightfully paranoid of my scum game but she has a huge bias she needs to work through

i really don't think i'm biased tho, i don't understand how your like entire day3 comes from town

It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.
And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

That’s literally a mafia 101 thing.
Barring an extraordinary explanation if there is no kill and the person was scumread (like RCE was by RC and myself) you lynch them. I have gotten out of many a similar scrapes as scum by making town forget mafia 101. We had the mislynch to spare if it was wrong and it gave a strong indication that before RC got all “I am taking over the game from Math” I was on the right track.

This also matches Saud scum which because of RC’s antics my reads changed.

If we could have lynched Ari day one or RC day one and Ari day two I think the gamestate would be a lot better especially if Ari is scum as I think he is.

[MathBlade]

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

i have a math background ...
given that nobody is seriously considering ico as a possible lynch today, i think it's inherently suboptimal

Yup it’s all kinds of bad. Shos scum is trying to shade the block.

[skitter30]

It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.

this is fallacious and ignores the notion that jk's tend to act as docs if more than one scum is alive

[teacher]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

Math is tonal/gut. Like I believe he believes this crap.

Flopz Im just kinda leaving to the side of my solves. Its part of why I want Ari today. I find Ari-Shos scummier than Math-Flopz on both players, and I think one of those is the the team.

[teacher]

It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.

this is fallacious and ignores the notion that jk's tend to act as docs if more than one scum is alive

YES!!!!!! For the love.

Back this up with hard evidence, and Im down. But "Almost always"? No.

[skitter30]

also it's not just the rce lynch, it's the whole nonsensical team-spouting, traitor, setup-spec thing that you did
and that you were trying to push that you were conftown day2, which i still hate

[skitter30]

random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

[teacher]

And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

Also, Skit, this is actually part of why I TR Math. I do think he makes more sense as the N1 than RCE. Both were unitownread, but Math was both more vocal himself, and more vocally townread by others.

[teacher]

random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

Like a change in your playstyle or a change in somethine else? Not sure Im following this one.

[skitter30]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

Math is tonal/gut. Like I believe he believes this crap.

Flopz Im just kinda leaving to the side of my solves. Its part of why I want Ari today. I find Ari-Shos scummier than Math-Flopz on both players, and I think one of those is the the team.

surprisngly enough i kinda feel that for shos?
like he actually believes the no-lynch stuff he's spouting?

i was asking about his team because i kinda want to know if the rest of them think this is a good idea too

i don't feel like math actually believes most of this

flopz ... it just bothers me that everyone is leaving him to the side
ari ... had an awful hammer but like otherwise i'm not sure i scumread
i'm more worried that he's not around anymore than like anything else; it belies a lack of motivation that i find concerning and would kinda make sense if he were scum here. but like his day1-day2 i thought were incredibly townie for him

[skitter30]

And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

Also, Skit, this is actually part of why I TR Math. I do think he makes more sense as the N1 than RCE. Both were unitownread, but Math was both more vocal himself, and more vocally townread by others.

math could u remind me what your day1 reads were again?
i know you said it a bunch of times but since you're around it would help me a bit

[skitter30]

random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

Like a change in your playstyle or a change in somethine else? Not sure Im following this one.

yeah just vague commentary on my playstyle changes over like 3+ years, not really relevant to this game or anything

[MathBlade]

@Skitter Titus says she’s with her goddaughter atm and doesn’t have her notes and she will get to me tomorrow and I hopefully will be available to answer then.

I still do believe that there’s definitely here we are missing
And yes I do believe that was accurate based upon how day one ended

If you were me you’d do the same. Right now teacher is literally pushing a theory that I was right day one. Based on what we knew I was likely shot. That’s still the most likely world.

That’s still what makes sense with a scum neighborizer.

Pedit I quoted it earlier give me a bit to find my quote I am posting slower due to flu.

[skitter30]

flopz ... it just bothers me that everyone is leaving him to the side

like this bothers me a lot actually because this is kinda exactly how scum slide into lylo and win
i'm kinda baffled that he's being largely townread by a couple of people and ignored otherwise but i can't really get anyone to articulate a townread on him

[teacher]

Yea, but total lack of presence D3 and D4 is indeed troubling. So are the feelings of the kills, even if some of them were cabined. Im also going to be brining back up the D1 associatives with him and Trisaudade when I get through my general catchup. Basically Im on Ari because I believe it scum AND because I believe it will convict Math if its not. I cant think of any other lynch that will have that kind of combined effect for me.

[skitter30]

@Skitter Titus says she’s with her goddaughter atm and doesn’t have her notes and she will get to me tomorrow and I hopefully will be available to answer then.

I still do believe that there’s definitely here we are missing
And yes I do believe that was accurate based upon how day one ended

If you were me you’d do the same. Right now teacher is literally pushing a theory that I was right day one. Based on what we knew I was likely shot. That’s still the most likely world.

That’s still what makes sense with a scum neighborizer.

Pedit I quoted it earlier give me a bit to find my quote I am posting slower due to flu.

kk i hope she has a good time with her goddaughter and that u feel better soon, being sick sucks

so u think u were shot for ur reads?
can you explain what you mean wrt the scum neighborizer?

[teacher]

can you explain what you mean wrt the scum neighborizer?

Not to Garcia, but I think he means that there is still a traitor.

[skitter30]

Yea, but total lack of presence D3 and D4 is indeed troubling. So are the feelings of the kills, even if some of them were cabined. Im also going to be brining back up the D1 associatives with him and Trisaudade when I get through my general catchup. Basically Im on Ari because I believe it scum AND because I believe it will convict Math if its not. I cant think of any other lynch that will have that kind of combined effect for me.

yes, lack of presence + day3 hammer i find the most concerning
i'm not sure i buy the arguments tying any of {ari, shos, flopz} in particular to the nks tbh

i was feeling kinda good about scum being in {ari, shos, math} but flopz posting again reminded me that like ... i don't know why he's not in the lynchpool
and shos is being awful but i don't know if scum is that bad. it's almost like a too scummy to be scum type thing where he's like starting to wrap around again as town almost because like ... i feel like scum gives this up by now almost?

i think that ico/xtoxm/teacher are town so for me rn i'm mostly looking in the other 4

pedit sigh

[Aristophanes]

@Shos -- why arent you voting rn?

Same @Ari

I am on, and will be rejoining, in about 1.5 hrs. Grades were due today -- my kiddos again did number 1 in our network of schools, so yay!

oh sweet, 'grats

p sure shos is going to tell you he wants a nolynch

ari seems to have disappeared again

Not voting because it is going to be on shos but I feel like I need to case him better than I have.

I disappeared because I hame been busy and also don't care atm for whatever reason. Sorry about that. Just demotivated again/still.

Also, I saw a post like last week where it was thought that I hammered to stop math and teacher vibing. For the record, I didn't check the votes before I voted and I didn't see any ninja posts so any and all repercussions were unintentional. I apologize again for cutting that phase and conversation short.

[teacher]

ico/xtoxm/teacher

Sub you for me and Im with you on this towncore.

Tbh, while Im not at all confident about Flopz, Im not scummreading the slot either. Flipping it, moreover, would do just about nada for me.

So we are in the same lynchpool too, but you and I have reverse orders.

Tell me, is it worth trying to sell Ari to you, or should I save the time on digging since Ive kinda headlined my case and it doesnt seem like it moved you much?

[skitter30]

i think that out of {ari, shos, math}, ari is my least-preferred lynch; the demotivation could be scum-indicative, but could also be irl-indicative
i almost want flopz before him actually.

like flopz is just occupying this weird middle-ground and i'm just nervous that if everyone is just like 'lol flopz he's just like ~around~' he can use that to waltz to a win if he's scum and literally no one is willing to push him
like i'd feel better if there wasn't this weird resistance to even exploring the idea, but everyone seems fine to just shove him to the side and just kinda like ignore the slot

i think that out of everything u wrote above wrt ari the trisaudade associatives might be the part that i'm the least familiar with (and thus might find potentially the most convincing out of everything in that post), could u give me the highlights of this point?

[MathBlade]

skitter reaction probtown
already townreading tris
spicy read rc town
also think that rce is town
also think that creature is town

the worst leantown but easily an error vector
bella leantown

xtoxm null, intentionally making themselves unreadable
ico null, unintentionally making themselves unreadable
thilbert?? who? have they posted?

scumreads

ari for reasons given
mathblade tonally plus associatively
plum just isn't doing anything that gives townvibes

i'll continue reading but i'm not gonna post much unless someone asks me for something specific so gl.

See here for an example. He’s had plum deep down on his scum list. But yet has teacher on his town.

RC+Teacher+Bella/Plum (probably Plum) makes sense due to RC meta but it requires RC scum for teacher to be.

And mainly I think we find this out by lynching Ari.

So I am focusing on a few possible worlds (in order of priority)
RC+TW+1 (maybe even Ari)
RC+Teacher+Bella/Plum (more likely Plum)
TW+Ico+?? (Only works if RC is town) ?? Possibility of deep wolf
RC and TW are TvT and have made this game unbearable and scum are lurking and taking advantage

mathb, you've been stellar this game. i can tell you've improved a lot. just please don't waste the d1 lynch on ari.

But he’s fucking scum.

Asking between RC/TW is probably SvS or TvT and like it just sucks.

If it’s SvS then the worst gets lynched every time and Raybells rides the cred,

If it’s TvT a lynch on lolcatting obvScum is gone

Like I get wanting to solve it but at what cost?

Who said SVS or TvT and everyone disagreed? This dude.

Like I am good at finding clusters bad stuff invididual people
It’s why I hunt by teams rather than people
It’s a lot harder to hide associations than anything else.