Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Nachomamma8]

And going through this from the other way around, i still think Chara should be way more paranoid of Hectic. Besides being tonally appropriate, Hectic's content is not top quality, and neither are his actions. Chara was not as confident as Replica, Hectic or Psyche about choosing the spare route, so why is it placing all its faith on a Hectic spare instead of exploring fight possibilities for today?

This seems to be a big sticking point for you wrt Chara - why does it only apply to Chara specifically? Why didn't you think it was scum indicative coming from Psyche, me, Bingle?

1. Hectic has played dozens of games in-between his first and this one. Have you checked MY first game on this site? Newbie 1951, go take a look and tell me the amount of difference there is from that game to this.
2. I have direct experience of the recent town!Hectic, in this game and this townhunt based game. Hectic didn't play poorly at all, it's clear that both his gimmicking and his playstyle have improved greatly, honestly i don't see any issue with scum!Hectic getting vastly better since the two games used as a comparison.

I have no doubt that Hectic will have improved in many aspects when he plays his next scumgame now that he's got a bunch more town games under his belt. However, the scumgame that he's starting from is one where he was afraid to post as scum, which should incrementally improve as he plays multiple scum games but I wouldn't expect the improvement to be this dramatic.

And, embarrassingly found that Hectic posted a recent scum game that I couldn't find for the life of me here, which I'd suggest you'd read through real quick - still problematic as it includes a jester and Hectic just mostly pretended to be a jester, but still think there's a dramatic difference in Hectic actually scumhunting and trying to figure out the game here and instead just pretending to be a jester and fucking around there. Also feel delaying his spare as scum when Suji asked if he wanted to be hammered would be the sign of scum who is confident and in control (and thus felt they'd be able to cash in on the spare down the road) and don't think the profile from this game demonstrates that's who Hectic is as scum based on how he handled his partner getting lynched Day 1 there.

I thought things like picking at the alimida's inconsistency in their townread on him here was also a surprising play from Hectic if he was scum here, as was prodding Suji why they were willing to spare him - from a scum perspective, you're making people feel awkward for wanting to spare you but it makes a ton of a sense from a town perspective, later translates to him also getting a bit paranoid of Chemist for also feeling that he was jumping on townreading him for no reason.

And there are a bunch of small things, but overall it's simply because the level of content that he's produced and the smaller tiny paranoid thoughts that maybe his read here or there is wrong is a big jump from his completed scum games so far. I can go into some of the smaller things if you'd find it productive but I think the delayed spare + talking about why he thought the delayed spare in thread was a mistake is the tipping point from me to "extremely confident town".

1) Scum!Chemist = i literally cannot see a reason for him to push me as a spare unless we are exactly the scum team, which is an immediate no to me.

This is a shallow thought. I do agree that it is a move Chemist is less likely to do as scum than town, but I don't find it impossible for Chemist to spare you as scum - means that there's a possibility for him to make a friend that might defend him from a lynch, means that he's possibly connecting the two of you together in other people's eyes, etc. There is risk carried in it in maybe someone like Replica who is scumreading you will turn on him, but I don't think the risk overwhelmingly outpaces the possible rewards.

Otherwise she could just push to spare her partner and it wouldn't even be a hard feat to achieve.

If her partner is in Chemist/Bingle, then who would the townies be to support her in sparing either? I don't think there's anyone who has Chemist/Bingle on the top of their list except for Replica and one person isn't going to make it happen.

scum!Bingle voting for a mislynch on town!Hectic. I have more of a hard time seeing scum!Bingle turning his read upside down and sparing town!Hectic, though.

Why is that?

[Nachomamma8]

I can't push Hectic/Nacho with such confidence as i was pushing Hectic/Chara (this solve also takes a hurt from Nacho being so confident in Hectic town, though), but i still think a Hectic flip is what we need to progress in this game. He is just at the center of... everything. Regardless of being correct or not, we can move on from there with actually significant VCA from d1 AND d2. I mean, this is also true about me. If i could challenge Hectic to a gladiator 1v1, i would.

Also we have just crossed the 5 days line from deadline, highest wagon is once again a spare. I don't know how i could be more honest about saying that i wouldn't spare hectic even if he is somehow allowed by the mod to show his role PM, just as much as i wouldn't spare myself. I am willing to talk about a compromise lynch. If we don't want Hectic, i would like to go for Chara. If Chara is off limits too, i pick Psyche. Can we talk about this for a while? It's not like i can prevent the majority by myself, but can we please just... talk about our own scumcases to see if there is any common ground?

this is also one of those immensely genuine posts that to me say that there's genuine frustration in not really having people listen to him.
i don't think this is "omg we're going to lose the game" panic.

[Nachomamma8]

I can only see him partner with Psyche though, and i have little reason to scumread him.

I'm not sure if I asked this or not already but why have you ruled out Chemist/Amrun or Chemist/Bingle?

What's most concerning about this post is that Nacho points out the two most pivotal things as Farkran and Bingle alignment, but makes no mention of Hectic's alignment. That's literally the most pivotal thing about this game, for multiple reasons, including but not limited to sorting me, Chara, Nacho and to a lesser extent Replica.

When I said "pivot points", I was more referencing to places where I thought I needed to spend my time in order to make an impact. You are a pivot point for me because I think that you're exceptionally town this game but not getting townread to the extent you should be, and the 4 hours I've spent reading your posts have only confirmed that. Bingle is a pivot point because he's most definitely capable of posting and providing enough to get a confident read on him versus someone like Chemist who is not engaged with the game overall and much much harder to read - if I am right with my general thoughts, then Bingle would be the best lynch today followed by a spare on whichever one of you/Replica survives until tomorrow. My pivot points are mine; I feel comfortable enough with Hectic!town to bet the game on it (a read which I now feel better about after doing a little bit of rereading there) hence "focusing on getting confidence on his alignment" not being a particularly huge concern for me.

[Nachomamma8]

I see...absolutely nothing in this game that is not a natural extension of Farkran's scumgame of Newbie 1958, which had a giant focus on pushing perceived inconsistencies in progressions, accusatory/loaded scenario assertions, and positing teams.

A lot of that perspective follows into towngames, I don't really feel confident in metaing him over what he's done this game but I'd say he generally seems to take a lot more account of motives and perspectives than he's done here, and seems less inclined to make cases and hardpushes than when he's scum based off of that game and Mini 2106.

There is literally no reason to townread this slot, at all, and at this point I kind of just have to accept that people are going to refuse to read into anything but appearance of effort.

I disagree that this game is a natural extension of Farkran's scumgame in 1958; in his scumgame in 1958, he was pretty careful not to make too many new enemies at the same time (his interactions with Evanstar where he calls their altercation TvT almost immediately), and he sort of set out a clear agenda from the beginning of the game and followed it (which I suppose you could argue he was trying to chip away at the townreads surrounding you/Hectic/Chara but then he also pushed me/Psyche as scum possibilities), also had a much, much calmer tone in general.

You are absolutely correct that he seems to be less attached to things in the towngames that I've reviewed as opposed to here; he also seems to be a large degree more thoughtful in his pushes and it's hard to picture the thoughtful and reasonable Farkran of other games as the same Farkran that's also pictured here?

[Nachomamma8]

/am tired, going to bed soon. questions for Farkran:

1) why did you self-vote yesterday? you have this post from NY 2106 where you said that self-voting was "gamethrowing, even if we get info". what made that situation different? did you really think there was a significant chance of you being lynched?

2) i guess i still don't understand your cases against me/hectic/chara. there's not a lot of places in your case where you talk about why hectic is scum independent of everyone else or why chara is scum independent of everyone else or why i am scum independent of everyone else which i thought was just your playstyle but clearly isn't - like i understand you like to think about associatives early but they're not a replacement for having actual reasons. have you read hectic's meta?

3) why do you think there is scum in the group that voted to lynch your predecessor that you thought was scummy and to spare hectic? like how is people agreeing with Amrun that Asriel needs to be pressured and ALSO following the town case on Hectic "too cohesive to be natural"? why would scum cluster together to spare a townie? why would scum cluster together to form a wagon on your predecessor that clearly didn't have a whole lot of bite behind it?

4) can we retread on #722? replica's post was silly but it doesn't make sense for you to jump down his throat as a result of it - what motivation does replica have as scum to post something like that?

[Nachomamma8]

as far as your hatred of sparing bonuses go...

why were you so opposed to the 2-2 route?

if we lynch and do nothing but lynch, we have 4 town controlled kills before we lose.
if we spare twice and lynch twice, we have 5 town controlled kills before we lose, and we get a couple days where universal townreads get to chill with one another and view the game without scum being able to specifically play to them. vca is a little weirder but you get the chance to analyze spare wagons and hurt wagons which seems like it would be strictly better.

[Nachomamma8]

can you also explain the amrun townslip more in depth? and why Replica's post here doesn't qualify as a townslip? my basic understanding of it was that amrun made an obviously wrong misrep of suji during her push there which town are likely to do because tunnel-vision and scum are not because unnecessary risk. my criticism with that reasoning is that it's something that's happened a surprisingly large amount in this game but this is the only "townslip" you found, i don't like you wording it as a townslip because that makes it sound stronger than it was and it's not like this is something you specifically seek out in other games.

[Bingle]

It occurred to me that if we lynch scum today we autowin.

[Bingle]

I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.

Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.

[Farkran]

pedit: why do we lynch me on a Nacho townflip?
i'd be happy to spare Replica if that's on the table.

Scum on my wagon, i don't think it's Amrun.

Have you got any updated reads to share? Besides your recent V/LA announce, you seem less and less engaged with this game, your content hasn't progressed much - if at all - in terms of both quantity and quality. Do you still feel confident on your d1 solve? Why?

[Farkran]

And going through this from the other way around, i still think Chara should be way more paranoid of Hectic. Besides being tonally appropriate, Hectic's content is not top quality, and neither are his actions. Chara was not as confident as Replica, Hectic or Psyche about choosing the spare route, so why is it placing all its faith on a Hectic spare instead of exploring fight possibilities for today?

This seems to be a big sticking point for you wrt Chara - why does it only apply to Chara specifically? Why didn't you think it was scum indicative coming from Psyche, me, Bingle?

I think there's more chance of at least 1 scum on my wagon, after i reconsidered Replica. Neither Psyche or Almidia had anything to do with Hectic in d1. You didn't talk much during d1 eod, but when you got back trying to push Hectic again, it is scum indicative for you too. At the time, your only towncase of Hectic was gimmicking and superficial meta analysis which we still don't agree about, but i have yet to check the new scum game that you have pointed out.

1) Scum!Chemist = i literally cannot see a reason for him to push me as a spare unless we are exactly the scum team, which is an immediate no to me.

This is a shallow thought. I do agree that it is a move Chemist is less likely to do as scum than town, but I don't find it impossible for Chemist to spare you as scum - means that there's a possibility for him to make a friend that might defend him from a lynch, means that he's possibly connecting the two of you together in other people's eyes, etc. There is risk carried in it in maybe someone like Replica who is scumreading you will turn on him, but I don't think the risk overwhelmingly outpaces the possible rewards.

Scum!Chemist could start a spare wagon on me if he hopes for a different resolution - i pointed this out later - but while also pushing a Nacho wagon when nobody besides me was endorsing it? If Hectic was town and Chemist was scum, i would think Chemist would have put much more effort in trying to derail the Hectic spare, but his main effort was put into sparing me instead (since he came back later, when i was at Spare minus 2, without unvoting), which from my POV does not make sense.

Otherwise she could just push to spare her partner and it wouldn't even be a hard feat to achieve.

If her partner is in Chemist/Bingle, then who would the townies be to support her in sparing either? I don't think there's anyone who has Chemist/Bingle on the top of their list except for Replica and one person isn't going to make it happen.

I could see Amrun bussing Bingle, or Chemist trying to UTR with Amrun, but as i explained above and earlier, i don't see any significant scum equity in chemist and bingle after d2 eod. Bingle slot is ambigous in a way that could be explained by scum motivation or game disengagement - but it holds true for him too that he didn't unvote my spare when he came back from the V/LA, so i'm more inclined to believe in the towniness of Almidia and disengagement from Bingle.

scum!Bingle voting for a mislynch on town!Hectic. I have more of a hard time seeing scum!Bingle turning his read upside down and sparing town!Hectic, though.

Why is that?

Why would scum!Bingle spare town!Hectic or town!Farkran in d2?

[Farkran]

/am tired, going to bed soon. questions for Farkran:

1) why did you self-vote yesterday? you have this post from NY 2106 where you said that self-voting was "gamethrowing, even if we get info". what made that situation different? did you really think there was a significant chance of you being lynched?

2) i guess i still don't understand your cases against me/hectic/chara. there's not a lot of places in your case where you talk about why hectic is scum independent of everyone else or why chara is scum independent of everyone else or why i am scum independent of everyone else which i thought was just your playstyle but clearly isn't - like i understand you like to think about associatives early but they're not a replacement for having actual reasons. have you read hectic's meta?

3) why do you think there is scum in the group that voted to lynch your predecessor that you thought was scummy and to spare hectic? like how is people agreeing with Amrun that Asriel needs to be pressured and ALSO following the town case on Hectic "too cohesive to be natural"? why would scum cluster together to spare a townie? why would scum cluster together to form a wagon on your predecessor that clearly didn't have a whole lot of bite behind it?

4) can we retread on #722? replica's post was silly but it doesn't make sense for you to jump down his throat as a result of it - what motivation does replica have as scum to post something like that?

1) I usually never selfvote, i really think it's a bad move from either alignment unless scum is trying to shut the game up before too much info about the scumteam leak out, i.e. preventing associatives from the partner, etc. In this specific game though, lynching town is strictly worse than sparing scum. I offered a viable counterwagon to prevent Hectic spare, and at the same time we (well, you) could have evaluated who would pick it up and who would turn it down. I didn't expect Psyche to push Hectic even further in response to that. I literally don't know what to say about Psyche, except hope that i am wrong and he is correct, still i think that was a very dumb move coming from town.

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

3) My pred was scummy, and that justifies both town and scum being on the wagon. If i was a spectator to this game, i might probably have voted Asriel too. But knowing the Asriel role PM i'm more inclined to believe there was 1 scum on it. This is not all there is to it though - i tried assuming that the full wagon was town after the suji slip, and i found out that the people outside the wagon are townier than those inside it, so i went back to consider pushing a solve of Hectic/1-on-my-wagon. Why wouldn't scum jump onto a lynchbait, in your opinion? What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

4) My push on Replica, at that point in time, was entirely based on how Replica was pushing bad math, while also having a dominant and competitive personality, while ALSO being not confident in his ability to read. Put things together = scum trying to pursue the scumsided route by hiding behind poor logic which however sounded like solid, because "omg 7% higher EV, we cannot possibly miss that opportunity!" isn't really better than "we can improve our reads by lynching, and eventually spare later IF and only IF we lynch at least 1 scum AND we are confident enough on other people not being his partners". I simply didn't believe that town could be so inconsistent about their own personality - from a competitive and egocentric player, i would expect either that you ditch the useless 7% EV chance because you don't think your reads are accurate and go for the better route OR you are confident enough in your townreads that you don't care about the added info from lynching. I based my stance on the fact that Spare is bad though, and while i still think i am correct wrt that argument, i'm not going to resume it or be as insistent on my reasoning, because it turned out that Replica (and the majority of other players) do not agree with me (despite being town, i.e. Psyche).

[Chara]

Have you got any updated reads to share? Besides your recent V/LA announce, you seem less and less engaged with this game, your content hasn't progressed much - if at all - in terms of both quantity and quality. Do you still feel confident on your d1 solve? Why?

i didn't have a day 1 solve. if you mean read confidence, i was right on Psyche and i'm still confident Hectic is town, so nothing's especially shaken it. i haven't really had a chance to reasses in the days before my leaving. i did take Psyche's read on your into account while considering this game and i'm at the point where i can at least say he was likely right (including Amrun's contribution on the matter) about the stubbornness being more of a personality read.

i'd like to try and firm up TRs today if i'm going to be limited access.

[Chara]

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

i would like to hear about my individual scum equity. i think we talked about this earlier in the game regarding my lack of suspicion when Hectic voted me, which you found strange.

also: i don't think it wise to discount that scum might let town Hectic be spared or even help it along. combination of scum not playing optimally as you're suggesting

and

deciding it isn't worth pushing against. in a vacuum i don't see a town spare wagon necessarily being composed of only town. if this wasn't your point then by all means correct me.

[Chara]

Anything changed with regards to your Nacho/Farkran reads since then, Chemist?

Honestly not really

Nacho’s push on me didn’t give me any warm feelings and Farkran is still posting well

i asked about this the other Day, still interested in what at this time you liked about Farkran's posting.

i do get the sense this is about a normal level of engagement for you but it would help me read you if you expanded or at least talked through your thought process on this. and the Nacho read as well.

[Chara]

The only way that I think we reach some sort of resolution wrt Farkran's alignment is some kind of appointment where a couple of people either metadive or chat about his posts as a whole. I am reluctant doing such a thing because I have limited time and don't really want to spend time doing something completely useless, but will likely do the thing anyways, just not within the next 48 hours.

With Bingle it likely takes time - does he do something, does he float in the ether eventually. Will he help us catch scum? So I'm willing to lynch here, I just see waiting on him to get more than a day of posting in to be a better bet then killing him now.

I have nothing new to say. I don't know what you're expecting from me, so I reiterated my position. I'm not going to waste my time pounding my head against a brick wall re: you or Farkran; I don't believe that it's going to be productive in the least bit. Your meta on Farkran was superficial and incredibly biased; I would like to spend a day diving a little deeper - pointing out a couple things to you, you pointing out a couple things to me. This is the only way I can see my kind being changed.

Bingle just got here today. There's a chance he does something that make people change his mind on him. That's not going to happen on Farkran; either people on one side of the fence get taken out of the game or people convince other people on his alignment; I don't think that engaging him on things is particularly useful since it's just more of the same.

these two posts re: Farkran: what exactly do you mean by the last paragraph in the second post here? i'm reading this as you don't think it was productive at the time to get into a large Farkran discussion, but now (considering your last few posts that go very in-depth on figuring him out) it might be more productive.

or i'm not sure what you mean by "engaging him on things isn't particularly useful."

pretty sure i understand your position on Bingle, which is that more content opportunities = a better overall read. and i'm assuming Farkran is the opposite, since he already has plenty of readable content?

i sort of regretted this post once i started it but sunk-cost fallacy something something. also want to make sure i understand your point.

[Chara]

i think. Amrun is still town.

and Replica as well even though we seem to disagree on most every mafia sensibility up to and including 1) math, 2) small-sample meta. i sort of miss non-cats Replica but i don't know if it surprises me that he's gotten to this point.

[Chara]

Replica doesn't have a listed pronoun and bah.

i feel sort of uninvested at this very moment given i have about an hour or so of access a day which means trying to have an actual conversation with anyone isn't going to happen. which means i need to actually analyze things which i hate

but

if anyone could kindly wagon me with Farkran or something or else ask me to do a dive on a thing or a someone the next time i have access that'd be great, thanks.
bye for today.

[Farkran]

I have no doubt that Hectic will have improved in many aspects when he plays his next scumgame now that he's got a bunch more town games under his belt. However, the scumgame that he's starting from is one where he was afraid to post as scum, which should incrementally improve as he plays multiple scum games but I wouldn't expect the improvement to be this dramatic.

And, embarrassingly found that Hectic posted a recent scum game that I couldn't find for the life of me here, which I'd suggest you'd read through real quick - still problematic as it includes a jester and Hectic just mostly pretended to be a jester, but still think there's a dramatic difference in Hectic actually scumhunting and trying to figure out the game here and instead just pretending to be a jester and fucking around there. Also feel delaying his spare as scum when Suji asked if he wanted to be hammered would be the sign of scum who is confident and in control (and thus felt they'd be able to cash in on the spare down the road) and don't think the profile from this game demonstrates that's who Hectic is as scum based on how he handled his partner getting lynched Day 1 there.

I thought things like picking at the alimida's inconsistency in their townread on him here was also a surprising play from Hectic if he was scum here, as was prodding Suji why they were willing to spare him - from a scum perspective, you're making people feel awkward for wanting to spare you but it makes a ton of a sense from a town perspective, later translates to him also getting a bit paranoid of Chemist for also feeling that he was jumping on townreading him for no reason.

And there are a bunch of small things, but overall it's simply because the level of content that he's produced and the smaller tiny paranoid thoughts that maybe his read here or there is wrong is a big jump from his completed scum games so far. I can go into some of the smaller things if you'd find it productive but I think the delayed spare + talking about why he thought the delayed spare in thread was a mistake is the tipping point from me to "extremely confident town".

Hmmm. That scum game, even if it's once again a different format, is still kinda bad and it's only from ~1 month ago. What you say about him could make sense. However... now that you mention it, why do you have so much interest and access to Hectic meta, and Hectic only, when in post 122 you say this is the first time you have played with him?

In post 138, you say that metadiving is an important part to your scumhunting strategy, yet if i recall correct you have only metaed Hectic for a large part of this game. You didn't even meta Chemist, currently your highest scumread - correct me if i'm mistaken - or Bingle, the slot who has the most inconsistencies with his own meta as i have been pointing out around d2 end. Hectic is a relatively new player, but he already accumulated dozens of games in his history. Why do you focus that much on towncasing him by meta, and why did you have enough time and patience to look for his scumgames when you didn't do the same for anyone else?

[Farkran]

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

i would like to hear about my individual scum equity. i think we talked about this earlier in the game regarding my lack of suspicion when Hectic voted me, which you found strange.

also: i don't think it wise to discount that scum might let town Hectic be spared or even help it along. combination of scum not playing optimally as you're suggesting

and

deciding it isn't worth pushing against. in a vacuum i don't see a town spare wagon necessarily being composed of only town. if this wasn't your point then by all means correct me.

WRT Chara individual scum equity:

First of all, being on my pred's wagon in d1. As i said, town would have reasons to do that, but it doesn't mean scum wouldn't push for a town mislynch over a town spare when a lynchbait appears. If Hectic is town, because here we're assuming such a scenario, your Replica spare at d1 eod was to focus on promoting the mislynch instead of sparing. When Hectic started scumreading you for it, instead of being suspicious of a very weird push from him, you subconsciously accepted it as if it was correct. You were either complacent or scared, not suspicious. Which is why then you entered d2 with a Hectic spare without any reservations, even if you failed to produce any further scumread or analysis of other people. Looking through your ISO from post 931 onwards (start of d2), you only asked people around without updating any of your solve theories. "Hectic is town, Farkran is scum", period. All the other slots are pretty much null or nulltown. You have no idea what scum is doing from your POV, except for me pushing Hectic/Chara as a double town mislynch, and you don't seem interested in improving that stance.

[Farkran]

I missed these two earlier.

as far as your hatred of sparing bonuses go...

why were you so opposed to the 2-2 route?

if we lynch and do nothing but lynch, we have 4 town controlled kills before we lose.
if we spare twice and lynch twice, we have 5 town controlled kills before we lose, and we get a couple days where universal townreads get to chill with one another and view the game without scum being able to specifically play to them. vca is a little weirder but you get the chance to analyze spare wagons and hurt wagons which seems like it would be strictly better.

2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly

worse

than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.

can you also explain the amrun townslip more in depth? and why Replica's post here doesn't qualify as a townslip? my basic understanding of it was that amrun made an obviously wrong misrep of suji during her push there which town are likely to do because tunnel-vision and scum are not because unnecessary risk. my criticism with that reasoning is that it's something that's happened a surprisingly large amount in this game but this is the only "townslip" you found, i don't like you wording it as a townslip because that makes it sound stronger than it was and it's not like this is something you specifically seek out in other games.

I suppose you are referring to 521? That's how Amrun post vibed to me when i read it. I would assume scum!Amrun would be much more careful when pushing for a mislynch, than use a misrep from something that happened immediately before her post for a case. The only circumstances where i could see Amrun pushing for scum!suji so fast are if she really believes he's scum (as explained in my post), or if she's trying to put some quick pressure on him - both pointing to Amrun being town. She does have a large enough scumrange, so it's not anything decisive. I think, though, that Amrun is one of the least scummy slots on my wagon and in this playerlist in general.

That Replica post... could also apply. And Hectic's 280 would also explain where you got that scumgame from. I had overlooked both. Still, if you found the scumgame from that post, i wonder how you wouldn't be suspicious of Hectic being self-aware of what he specifically

should avoid doing

as scum. I mean, it's not about me being stubborn, it's about your level of confidence on evidence that isn't even close to anything decisive, if at all relevant, to produce a towncase of Hectic.

[Nachomamma8]

Scum!Chemist could start a spare wagon on me if he hopes for a different resolution - i pointed this out later - but while also pushing a Nacho wagon when nobody besides me was endorsing it? If Hectic was town and Chemist was scum, i would think Chemist would have put much more effort in trying to derail the Hectic spare, but his main effort was put into sparing me instead (since he came back later, when i was at Spare minus 2, without unvoting), which from my POV does not make sense.

chemist - if town - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense
chemist - if scum - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense

There's probably one person who I don't expect to have a particularly firm or planned out agenda if scum and that person is Chemist. Do you disagree?

I could see Amrun bussing Bingle, or Chemist trying to UTR with Amrun, but as i explained above and earlier, i don't see any significant scum equity in chemist and bingle after d2 eod. Bingle slot is ambigous in a way that could be explained by scum motivation or game disengagement - but it holds true for him too that he didn't unvote my spare when he came back from the V/LA, so i'm more inclined to believe in the towniness of Almidia and disengagement from Bingle.

You said that it would be easy for Amrun to get her partner spared. I pointed out that Chemist/Bingle don't really have support to be spared at this point in time. How does Amrun get her partner spared if her partner is one of Bingle/Chemist?

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

what is your case for Hectic's individual scum equity?

3) My pred was scummy, and that justifies both town and scum being on the wagon. If i was a spectator to this game, i might probably have voted Asriel too. But knowing the Asriel role PM i'm more inclined to believe there was 1 scum on it. This is not all there is to it though - i tried assuming that the full wagon was town after the suji slip, and i found out that the people outside the wagon are townier than those inside it, so i went back to consider pushing a solve of Hectic/1-on-my-wagon. Why wouldn't scum jump onto a lynchbait, in your opinion? What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

i understand why you think that there's probably scum on your fight wagon. i agree. i don't understand 1684, which implies that those same names also being on the hectic spare wagon increases the chances of that group being scum.

[Nachomamma8]

What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

i'm not really confident that either are town, particularly not confident that amrun is town. i'm town but i think the point of the game is that you're supposed to get there on your own.

i want you to talk about this quote again:

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The DANGER of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

that seemed to be the straw that broke the camel's back wrt your read on replica. i don't understand why - what is the motivation for Replica as scum to say the quoted if it's something he doesn't believe?

[Nachomamma8]

these two posts re: Farkran: what exactly do you mean by the last paragraph in the second post here? i'm reading this as you don't think it was productive at the time to get into a large Farkran discussion, but now (considering your last few posts that go very in-depth on figuring him out) it might be more productive.

or i'm not sure what you mean by "engaging him on things isn't particularly useful."

didn't have the time i thought it would take to engage farkran, didn't have the emotional capacity i thought it would took to engage + talk to others about farkran

pretty sure i understand your position on Bingle, which is that more content opportunities = a better overall read. and i'm assuming Farkran is the opposite, since he already has plenty of readable content?

bingle needed time to post. i needed time to read farkran.

[Nachomamma8]

i think. Amrun is still town.

why?