Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Nachomamma8]

i agree with that.

[Nachomamma8]

and i really don't understand his approach here if scum.

[Nachomamma8]

but i still don't trust him completely.

[Nachomamma8]

I really disagree with Amrun's Alimdia read-they were a townlean for me and going back through the ISO this seems true to me.

Comparing Alimdia's posting here to a recently completed scumgame makes me feel better about the slot, too. There's a lot of throwing out loose speculation and accusations with a lot less emphasis on Alimdia not understanding points or trying to get to the bottom of them.

Posts like Alim's #129, #202, and #211 show a lot more genuine confusion and interest in understanding someone's thinking imo.

I feel a lot better about the slot now. I think Bingle generally isn't framing the argument correctly with the nature of Amrun's read. It might be in reaction to Amrun's #1161 uses hyperbole that can imply it should NEVER be townread, rather than focusing on it not being a great universal tell/it being specific to the player.

I'm solidly off board with either of their approaches.

I don't really understand Replica's confidence in Alimdia based on this meta case.
The first post he calls out is Alimdia voting Sherlock because he doesn't understand why Sherlock voted Hectic early on - how is that "genuine confusion and interest"? how can he claim that's outside of anyone's scumrange?
The other two are Alimdia wanting Sherlock to offer a better reason for Sherlock following JTB's RVS vote which seems like a relatively small thing to harp on - really don't understand why town!Alimdia cares about why Sherlock voted Hectic on the second page of the game to the degree he does, and, again, don't understand how that's out of his scumrange.

[Amrun]

I really disagree with Amrun's Alimdia read-they were a townlean for me and going back through the ISO this seems true to me.

Comparing Alimdia's posting here to a recently completed scumgame makes me feel better about the slot, too. There's a lot of throwing out loose speculation and accusations with a lot less emphasis on Alimdia not understanding points or trying to get to the bottom of them.

Posts like Alim's #129, #202, and #211 show a lot more genuine confusion and interest in understanding someone's thinking imo.

I feel a lot better about the slot now. I think Bingle generally isn't framing the argument correctly with the nature of Amrun's read. It might be in reaction to Amrun's #1161 uses hyperbole that can imply it should NEVER be townread, rather than focusing on it not being a great universal tell/it being specific to the player.

I'm solidly off board with either of their approaches.

I don't really understand Replica's confidence in Alimdia based on this meta case.
The first post he calls out is Alimdia voting Sherlock because he doesn't understand why Sherlock voted Hectic early on - how is that "genuine confusion and interest"? how can he claim that's outside of anyone's scumrange?
The other two are Alimdia wanting Sherlock to offer a better reason for Sherlock following JTB's RVS vote which seems like a relatively small thing to harp on - really don't understand why town!Alimdia cares about why Sherlock voted Hectic on the second page of the game to the degree he does, and, again, don't understand how that's out of his scumrange.

Totally. It is not an especially strong town case. I have actually played with alimdia as both alignments.

I think replica is town too.

[Nachomamma8]

replica is probably my only confident townread at the moment.

[Amrun]

replica is probably my only confident townread at the moment.

Same.


Can we just wreck plz

Flip Bingle?

[Amrun]

Even Bingle could be town. I really haven’t felt great about my reads this game which means a townread I have is probably wrong.

[Bingle]

I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

[Chemist1422]

hello

I’m down to fight Bingle today I think

[Amrun]

Yassssss

[Chara]

Literally who wasn’t...? I tried to bargain Chemist into a single fight vote on him and couldn’t.

Psyche, cats, Chara I think, Chemist’s read was nebulous. Can’t remember your stance yesterday tbh. I think Farkran also TR that slot? Add me to the mix and it’s a spare easily tbh. Especially without me trying to constantly bring negative attention to the slot.

i don't TR Bingle.
i can only remember Psyche and Replica having a strong TR there.

Nacho asked about my Amrun read: i like the way she's interacted with Replica in spite of their disagreements re:Bingle and fighting vs. sparing. i also thought her reaction to my and Farkran's argument day 2 seemed very genuine, in how she commented on my having patience and mindmelding (which was not really the emotion but i see how she got there) and in general there hasn't been a lot that's bothered me. i think it's telling when a player with a low word-count like Amrun is easily understandable and followable. i've also agreed with a lot of her takes. not really the Bingle-scum fervor but i don't think her case is bad per se and she's said a few times she isn't 100% confident in the read. actually, Amrun, is there a reason you want to lynch Bingle more than spare Replica?

if she's scum then she's playing really well and loosely. maintaining something like that for the long haul is hard, in my experience.

Farkran: i didn't find Hectic's vote on me suspicious. it looked like paranoia and that's towny.

[Chara]

if this were a normal game i'd be helping wagon Bingle already. but with two instant-win scenarios i don't feel good about the odds of lynching him and being sure he's scum. a mislynch isn't a game ender but it's disappointing.
also can't really trust Chemist is town. he's in townlean-ville but i'm not happy with it.

Nacho i'm really happy to see the depth with which he seems to have internalized this game, or at least the first half of it. Nacho have you talked about why your Replica TR is confident?

[Chara]

i do like Farkran's read on Amrun in 1720.

but then his case on me feels like an oversimplification. i don't remember if it's true that i only gave two strong reads but i don't feel it is. i might have not discussed them?

it's true i'm not very interested in what scum is doing as a whole. it's not how i usually hunt. i mean, i can scumcase, but i'm most successful with and most confident in identifying town and then lynching outside of them.
Farkran: knowing that, and knowing i have more TRs than i've been 100% explicit about... actually, on paper i agree that fighting is probably a better idea information-wise and mathematically. it's just not something i can be confident in with my own reads.

[Farkran]

Scum!Chemist could start a spare wagon on me if he hopes for a different resolution - i pointed this out later - but while also pushing a Nacho wagon when nobody besides me was endorsing it? If Hectic was town and Chemist was scum, i would think Chemist would have put much more effort in trying to derail the Hectic spare, but his main effort was put into sparing me instead (since he came back later, when i was at Spare minus 2, without unvoting), which from my POV does not make sense.

chemist - if town - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense
chemist - if scum - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense

There's probably one person who I don't expect to have a particularly firm or planned out agenda if scum and that person is Chemist. Do you disagree?

This could be paraphrased to "Chemist is unreadable". Does this mean you have him as scum by PoE only? I am always having the same problem with you, which is badly distributed confidence on reads. From what i have seen in your recent posting and past ISO, you have no reason to firmly townread any in {Chara, Bingle, Amrun, Chemist, Farkran, Replica}. Let's assume that you (used to) townread me based on tone and sincerity, perhaps Chara and Replica too, even though i don't particularly agree with Chara. Why do you pick Chemist over Bingle and Amrun as your top scumread? I understand that you are pairing him with both the other two, but if there is one important thing in this game is to lynch scum. This has been true ever since d1, but today even moreso.

Let's talk a bit, me and you, about why Chemist would be a better guess than Bingle or Amrun. I will keep my mind open, i don't even necessarily disagree within this particular context, but i want to hear the reasoning that comes from your POV. Does Chemist/any explain the gamestate and actions occurred in the past days? I am considering, as the staple points of this game, these three things:
1) d1 Hectic spare wagon
2) d1 Asriel fight wagon
3) d2 Hectic spare wagon

And to a lesser extent, Bingle spare wagon, Farkran spare wagon, Fark/Amrun push on Bingle and ultimately a lot of things that happened during d2 are worth analyzing - what scumteam would explain these interactions? I can only really see a few, and most are based on either Hectic being scum with one of his spare supporters, or Farkran being scum with one of those who didn't spare Hectic. There has been literally no direct resistance on the Hectic spare except for me, and some amount of indirect resistance by Chemist and Bingle. Keep in mind that Amrun was sparing Hectic when he was L-1 with intent during d1. If hectic is town, his spare can only be explained by a Farkran/Chemist, Farkran/Bingle or Chemist/Bingle team. Set aside that i will reject any Farkran-based solve, why are

you

not including Farkran-based solves? As for Chemist and Bingle, they resolved d2 by sparing me. Which, once again, does not make a huge amount of sense as a scum strategy unless this was a vanity spare while at the same time pushing for a viable lynch - i had 2 votes from Chara and Replica at the time, why spare Farkran instead of lynch Farkran, from a Bingle/Chemist solve pov? Amrun would have gladly joined, resulting in a hammer even without my self-contribute.

I could see Amrun bussing Bingle, or Chemist trying to UTR with Amrun, but as i explained above and earlier, i don't see any significant scum equity in chemist and bingle after d2 eod. Bingle slot is ambigous in a way that could be explained by scum motivation or game disengagement - but it holds true for him too that he didn't unvote my spare when he came back from the V/LA, so i'm more inclined to believe in the towniness of Almidia and disengagement from Bingle.

You said that it would be easy for Amrun to get her partner spared. I pointed out that Chemist/Bingle don't really have support to be spared at this point in time. How does Amrun get her partner spared if her partner is one of Bingle/Chemist?

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

Farkran, what is your case for Hectic's individual scum equity?

I went over it several times by now, but since i have been accused of circular reasoning, i will explain how you (most, if not all) have been superficially ditching my case by being the true stubborn people in this game.

1) There was a fight wagon on me. I assume there is scum in there. My wagon overlapped with Hectic's spare wagon. If i assume there is at least 1 scum on my wagon, why would that scum player also spare town!Hectic? Let's assume that it could work in d1 to pocket other people, but why would you pursue the same in d2, when you have already spared conftown? This could point to scum!Amrun if hectic is town, but it would have to be partnered with me or Chemist. My main concern about Hectic is that his spare wagon met no resistance from scum, during both days, and the level of confidence displayed by people who voted him is exaggerated, misplaced.

2) Hectic made several bad progression swings in d1 eod and d2. I have already talked about Chara (scumreading it for the unvote was ok, sparing it in d2 made no sense at all), but even Hectic push about me is based on bad reasoning. He pushed me for not sparing sujimichi, when i immediately entered the game saying that i wouldn't spare even myself. He never tried to understand my point of view, he never offered a solve of the game that includes scum!me, even when i asked multiple times to talk about potential lynches. Promoting a spare resolution is one thing (which i conceded about just disagreeing), refusing to scumhunt at all is another. This is the same thing Chara did during the whole of d2.

3) My pred was scummy, and that justifies both town and scum being on the wagon. If i was a spectator to this game, i might probably have voted Asriel too. But knowing the Asriel role PM i'm more inclined to believe there was 1 scum on it. This is not all there is to it though - i tried assuming that the full wagon was town after the suji slip, and i found out that the people outside the wagon are townier than those inside it, so i went back to consider pushing a solve of Hectic/1-on-my-wagon. Why wouldn't scum jump onto a lynchbait, in your opinion? What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

i understand why you think that there's probably scum on your fight wagon. i agree. i don't understand 1684, which implies that those same names also being on the hectic spare wagon increases the chances of that group being scum.

As i said above, why would scum spare town!Hectic when they can readily lynch town!Asriel? The only differences in those two wagons were Replica and Hectic himself. Why would both Nacho and Amrun (and to a lesser extent even Chara), who entered the game favoring a lynch resolution, spare town over lynching town? They wouldn't even have been scumreaded for contrasting a Hectic spare wagon, it was just the correct thing to do, especially when the basis for townreading Hectic is superficial meta and gimmicking.

[Farkran]

What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

i'm not really confident that either are town, particularly not confident that amrun is town. i'm town but i think the point of the game is that you're supposed to get there on your own.

I'd like to hear your case of scum!Amrun. Besides my tone and content townread, my main issue with scum!Amrun is that i don't have a ready partner for him... who isn't Hectic, i guess, but even then Amrun would just have voted for Hectic spare in d2 instead of trying to push for a Bingle flip. Amrun is the only slot who has plausible, believable concern about his read. Faking this, very likely isn't outside her scumrange, but who's she partner with? It's once again just me or hectic.

i want you to talk about this quote again:

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The DANGER of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

that seemed to be the straw that broke the camel's back wrt your read on replica. i don't understand why - what is the motivation for Replica as scum to say the quoted if it's something he doesn't believe?

At the time, i thought it did not make sense to push for a spare resolution SO HARD as Replica did back there. I mean, refusing to lynch to the point that you don't vote because

you are afraid that people would sheep you

is just... immensely nonsensical when, at the same time, you are placing your full confidence in voting your townreads. You cannot just explain this via bad math only. I reconsidered Replica later, after i realized how many people and how strongly they believe they could solve this game without flipping anyone at at all. Which is still beyond me, but such is reality.

[Chara]

i don't understand how you can confidently say scum Amrun could only be partned with you or Hectic. why can't she be partnered with me? or Chemist? or Nacho?

[Farkran]

i didn't meta chemist because we've played together and i don't need a baseline of him. i didn't meta bingle because we've played together and i don't need a baseline of him.

This is interesting. Can you tell me what would you expect from town!them and scum!them? Because based on 1721 you don't seem to have a lot of confidence on your knowledge of Chemist. I only experienced a game with town!Chemist, the magireco modded by Tetsuya/Torque. With Bingle, i only have town!him in the cult game modded by Kerset. Chemist is similar to the magireco Chemist, whereas this Bingle is completely different than the Bingle i know. What's your experience?

[Farkran]

i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?

[Farkran]

i'm frustrated that i'm still thinking about farkran at this point. i'm fine leaving maybe one or two people in the CANNOT READ bin but i didn't expect him to be one of them. i think there's a lot to point to farkran being town but then there's also the fact that the man cannot make a scum case or town case on anyone without assuming their alignment or tying it back to the HECTIC IS SCUM theory.

Like, i feel that you are trying to adjust your reads to be more and more convenient to your survival, ever since i have been suggesting to lynch you. What have i done that makes me look scummier than yesterday, except moving my vote to you? You know i have been scumleaning you for reasons similar to why i am scumreading Chara, this is not news.

Yesterday, you were considering joining the Bingle fight wagon, but you didn't get the chance to produce content about it because Hectic quickspared himself. Why didn't you consider a Farkran/Bingle solve yesterday? Or Farkran/Chemist? Or Farkran/Amrun? Are you considering any of those today?

[Farkran]

farkran is townreading

Amrun

because

Amrun

could get any one of your hypothetical partners spared.
that doesn't make sense to me - the exchanges that we had circulating around your possible partners was me prodding at the above thought.

Uh... no, i'm not townreading Amrun. I am town

leaning

Amrun because i can't find a good partner for him that would explain this gamestate, because of how she behaved around most slots, thinking in terms of genuine paranoia/doubt rather than having misplaced confidence. This means i would always lynch Chara and Nacho first, not that Amrun is townlocked. The same goes about Chemist, Bingle and Replica. Certainly though, the Amrun/Bingle team would have had largely more luck in trying to spare Bingle rather than bussing him.

[Farkran]

I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

Explain yourself. What changed?

[Farkran]

hello

I’m down to fight Bingle today I think

Partner with who?

[Farkran]

Farkran: i didn't find Hectic's vote on me suspicious. it looked like paranoia and that's towny.

Why does nobody notice that this does not make sense?

You were on Hectic's spare wagon when Sujimichi asked if he was ready to hammer. This implies that you were fine with Hectic spare up to that point, you wouldn't have been disappointed if he was being spared as a d1 resolution. This is ok, if you townread him.

Then you vote Replica, and Hectic scumreads you. It's... slightly less ok, but more than plausible if he thinks scum!you found an opportunity to resolve the day differently - for instance, lynching Asriel/Farkran.

Then, you tell him you are still townreading him and every doubt is vaporized from both sides. This was enough to enter d2 with a mutual spare of each other. Immediately. Without even talking about anything else.

[Farkran]

i don't understand how you can confidently say scum Amrun could only be partned with you or Hectic. why can't she be partnered with me? or Chemist? or Nacho?

Why would team Amrun/{Chara, Chemist, Nacho} spare Hectic or Farkran, instead of sparing Chara, lynching Bingle or lynching Farkran? There were plenty of opportunities for both outcomes in d2, you only had to join your efforts. You wouldn't even be scumread for any of those, since you would have been going with the consensus, not against it. Instead, Chara and Nacho were creating even more consensus for Hectic spare, Amrun was pretty much alone in pushing Bingle and Chemist spared me.