Mini Theme 2112: Skyrim Mod Upick Town Win

[Eve]

want to hear from Something Smart first

[Something_Smart]

Go ahead and claim.

[Eve]

Bulletproof Khajit - in a phase where the thief stone is active i'm bulletproof

zenith wrote "brave khajit" to give me cover but whatever probably not getting shot at this point

[alimdia]

Errr if mastina flips town I think you were getting vigged >.>

this complicates things

You being bulletproof if the thief stone is up seems to counter suji's shot when thief stone is up

[gobbledygook]

That makes sense as a scum role too.

[Something_Smart]

probably not getting shot at this point

Yeah that was my reasoning.

As much as I'd love to gambit and try to get you shot, with an IC, a cop clear, a vig, and an oracle, it's not going to happen. And the town needs to know because they were talking about vigging you.

[Something_Smart]

If Eve is town then a scum strongman is likely.

[gobbledygook]

Maybe Mastina is the strongman

[gobbledygook]

Which would make sense why she claimed vanilla

[alimdia]

If Eve is town then a scum strongman is likely.

DO you think Eve is town tho?

They're only bulletproof when the claimed vig can shoot.

[Sujimichi]

I would like for Wake to confirm his actions for tonight, and for us to confirm what we should do. Our options are to lynch Eve given the claim if suspicions there remain, and then I can use my vigilante power on mastina. Our other option is we can lynch mastina and then hope that Eve is not actually bulletproof. I am also open to shooting alimdia, but I will need to confirm with the moderator how Leveling actions work given night action resolution. I will do that now.

[mastina]

Mastina, why would scum claim bodyguard?

I can give you a plethora of reasons from the game where I was mislynched as one where people kept on repeatedly saying "scum can fakeclaim bodyguard" as well as show you a game where scum did precisely that, fakeclaim bodyguard.

Suffice to say: bodyguard does not a town role make.

Role != alignment, barring extenuous circumstances such as masons, innocent children, and when someone has a cop clear on them.

Mastina what does it say in the flavour part of your role PM for why you're s VT?

I answered the justification part already. The flavor is quoting the mod's wiki description, apparently.

Bulletproof Khajit - in a phase where the thief stone is active i'm bulletproof

Wait.
So you're a BULLETPROOF when the THIEF stone is activated...
...When we have a VIG who is active when the THIEF stone is activated?

As in, bulletproof at the same time our vig has the ability to shoot?

...In a game where Something_Smart already claimed bulletproof?

VOTE: Eve
I think those two (pretty much proven town) claims speak for themselves here for why Eve is lockscum.

[mastina]

If Eve is town then a scum strongman is likely.

Something_Smart, you've got a bulletproof.
Wake is a claimed bodyguard.
Xtoxm was a jailkeeper (a protective role).
popsofctown was a rolestopper (a protective role).
Eve is claiming bulletproof townie whose BP is active on the same night that our vig's vig power is active.

A full scum strongman wouldn't be able to explain all of the above being town.
A full scum strongman, versus two town bulletproofs, a bodyguard, a rolestopper, and a jailkeeper, is still townsided as fuck.

So there's no way that you, Wake, Xtoxm, popsofctown, and Eve are all town.
You are town, Xtoxm/popsofctown have flipped town.

Which means there's 1-2 scum in Eve and Wake.
Even if you don't think both are scum (I do), you can at least agree AT LEAST one of them must be, right?

[wrong fish]

I don't feel comfortable with Mastina right now, she isn't giving off townie vibes like she did in Jingle invitational.

-Fishy

[Something_Smart]

They're only bulletproof when the claimed vig can shoot.

I mean, if both mods are thief-related, that's hardly surprising.

If Eve were scum bulletproof it would be identical from a design perspective if she were bulletproof on every night.

[gobbledygook]

Xtoxm kill still implicates Mastina. But I guess we can just kill Alimidia and lynch eve tomorrow.

Scum definitely have a strongman and it looks to be Mastina.

SS ask if a bodyguard exists

Suj kill Alimidia

Town profit

[Something_Smart]

If alimdia's leveling still works if he dies.

[gobbledygook]

Why wouldn’t it?

[mastina]

They're only bulletproof when the claimed vig can shoot.

I mean, if both mods are thief-related, that's hardly surprising. If Eve were scum bulletproof it would be identical from a design perspective if she were bulletproof on every night.

Yo, SS. This doesn't address my main points:

Bulletproof Khajit - in a phase where the thief stone is active i'm bulletproof

Wait.
So you're a BULLETPROOF when the THIEF stone is activated...
...When we have a VIG who is active when the THIEF stone is activated?

As in, bulletproof at the same time our vig has the ability to shoot?

...In a game where Something_Smart already claimed bulletproof?

I think those two (pretty much proven town) claims speak for themselves here for why Eve is lockscum.

If Eve is town then a scum strongman is likely.

Something_Smart, you've got a bulletproof.
Wake is a claimed bodyguard.
Xtoxm was a jailkeeper (a protective role).
popsofctown was a rolestopper (a protective role).
Eve is claiming bulletproof townie whose BP is active on the same night that our vig's vig power is active.

A full scum strongman wouldn't be able to explain all of the above being town.
A full scum strongman, versus two town bulletproofs, a bodyguard, a rolestopper, and a jailkeeper, is still townsided as fuck.

So there's no way that you, Wake, Xtoxm, popsofctown, and Eve are all town.
You are town, Xtoxm/popsofctown have flipped town.

Which means there's 1-2 scum in Eve and Wake.
Even if you don't think both are scum (I do), you can at least agree AT LEAST one of them must be, right?

There is a flipped town jailkeeper.
There is a flipped town rolestopper.
You are a claimed town one-shot bulletproof (with more on top of that role as well as the 1x bp, butstill).
Wake is a claimed bodyguard.
Eve is a claimed bulletproof on the nights the vig is able to shoot--this implies that Eve's role is designed specifically to not be killed by Sujimichi, regardless of Eve's alignment. Eve is designed to specifically be immune to Sujimichi. Which alignment do you think is more likely to have a role designed to be immune to the vig shot?

Furthermore.
If you were to assume that scum have a strongman--and this is an ASSUMPTION, not a fact, an assumption of some unknown unproven scum role that you're theorycrafting as maybe possibly potentially being in the setup without hard proof. But sure, let's humor that line of thought. Let's even have it be an ungated full strongman even though were a strongman to exist it most certainly would have some limitation on it. But just for the sake of argument, let's say that there's a full scum strongman in spite of my reasons for saying this line of thinking is unlikely.

A full strongman.
Against a town 1x bulletproof.
A rolestopper.
A jailkeeper.
A bulletproof.
And a bodyguard.

Is still not balanced.

And we have proof that there isn't a full strongman, too--you're alive.
You are a claimed Oracle, the strongest possible town investigative with any modicum of competency from the person holding the role, who also happens to have claimed 1x bulletproof. Sounds like the absolutely perfect target for a scum strongman to take out, yes? Yet you're alive--so either the scum didn't have one able to strongman kill or didn't think to kill you with it. (The former of which is far, far more likely than the latter.)

You've got five claimed killstopper roles--one was your own, two have flipped.
And you've got reasonably good evidence suggesting against the existence of an ungated strongman if nothing else.
And those five killstopper roles, even with a strongman, would still be townsided if all town--and given the lack of a proven strongman with soft evidence against one, that's even more townsided if they were all true.

Basically.
Mechanically.
There is every reason to call at least one of Eve/Wake's claims bullshit, with the very high chance that Eve is a scum bulletproof designed to be immune to the vig's nightkill.

[mastina]

Scum definitely have a strongman and it looks to be Mastina.

If I were a scum strongman then Something_Smart's slot, the claimed bulletproof Oracle, would be dead instead of Xtoxm.

So either I'm not scum or scum don't have a strongman. Pick your choice. You can't have your cake and eat it, too. Either scum lack a strongman (in which case the idea of five killstopping roles being town is laughable, and thus, at least one of Eve or Wake must be scum), or I am not scum (in which case, the chance that Wake/Eve are scum skyrockets via sheer raw poe).

In either case, the lynch shouldn't be me. It should be one of Eve/Wake.

[Sujimichi]

Why wouldn’t it?

I am not sure. However, the moderator has read my question but has not responded so perhaps the answer is not as straightforward as you would believe.

[mastina]

Like. I've been not very motivated this game, but this is where I AM in my element. Mechanics are something I am

good

at, and it is painfully obvious.
There is reasonably good proof that we do not have a full ungated scum strongman. There could be a scum strongman in select circumstances, but even given the existence of one, a scum strongman does not a counterbalance make to five claimed killstoppers.

Like, Something_Smart, in a mini, would you consider this setup to be balanced:
1-shot Bulletproof 2-shot Cop (this is probably the loose power of your role if we convert it into a Normal role--I'd argue stronger, like, ungated Cop, but I'll give you the benefit of your restrictions meaning it's not an ungated cop)
Nonconsecutive Jailkeeper Neighbor (probably the closest Normal modifier to roles that are reliant on a specific stone)
Nonconsecutive Rolestopper (as per above)
Nonconsecutive Bulletproof
Nonconsecutive Vig
Bodyguard Neighbor
VTx4

versus,
Scum Nonconsecutive Rolecop
Scum Nonconsecutive Strongman
Scum Goon

(With either the goon or a VT as a third neighbor)

...Or would you consider it to be townsided as fuck?

If all of those town roles were claimed in a game, with only the scum rolecop flipped, would you posit "hmm, maybe a scum strongman would balance this out", a violation of occam's razor, or would you posit, "At least one of these claimed PRs for killstopping is lying"?

[gobbledygook]

It’s pretty obvious that SS is not bulletproof.

[alimdia]

I would like for Wake to confirm his actions for tonight, and for us to confirm what we should do. Our options are to lynch Eve given the claim if suspicions there remain, and then I can use my vigilante power on mastina. Our other option is we can lynch mastina and then hope that Eve is not actually bulletproof. I am also open to shooting alimdia, but I will need to confirm with the moderator how Leveling actions work given night action resolution. I will do that now.

Why did you have to say that out loud

[alimdia]

But I still agree that theres too much protective/non dying shit