Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Replica]

Last night I sat in bed thinking about this game, and I realized that there is exactly 1 player in this game that hasn't recently expressed a hard townread me (Chemist). And I...am not getting spared today. I knew several people had underexplained townreads but I didn't realize it was literally the entire game. I think I'm better at gauging other's reactions to me, which basically no one has expounded on, than I am looking at secondary interactions too so this game really owns.

Life is cruel sometimes.

[popsofctown]

Most recent VC: Spider Donut

Modnote: This VC still reflects the gamestate by my count.

[Replica]

HEAL: Bingle

I'm really struggling right now in the reads department. This is the only one I feel solid on. I was able to understand/empathize with Chemist a lot more on a read through today, and I feel like choosing to engage with Farkran's points to the extent he did, and as critically but still open as he did, as scum would be difficult for him. I'm not confident in him being town but he's no longer in my desired lynchpool I think.

Chara's recent content has hashed out a lot but their reads don't really seem to be evolving in new or interesting ways. I kind of feel that, but it makes it tough to read. Amrun has been extremely difficult, all of her reads are very plausible. I don't like some of the Hectic progression, and Amrun instantly asking the leading questions (beginning in #274, continuing until I flexed a bit) to see if I would give her something to pounce on is worse in hindsight when I realize that it came shortly after her vote on Asriel (now Farkran)

I don't like my lynch preference right now. Farkran -> Amrun -> Nacho -> Chemist, where I can easily see both of Nacho/Amrun being town. I don't think I'd learn a lot from seeing only one of her/Nacho flip town, either, so I'm really not eager to lynch there.

I feel like I'm wrong somewhere and I don't like it. My fear is that it's on one of Farkran/Chara/Hectic.

[Replica]

HURT: Farkran

I still want to revisit this when I have the energy but there's literally no one else I'm comfortable voting for right now.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Bingle

I'm really struggling right now in the reads department. This is the only one I feel solid on. I was able to understand/empathize with Chemist a lot more on a read through today, and I feel like choosing to engage with Farkran's points to the extent he did, and as critically but still open as he did, as scum would be difficult for him. I'm not confident in him being town but he's no longer in my desired lynchpool I think.

Chara's recent content has hashed out a lot but their reads don't really seem to be evolving in new or interesting ways. I kind of feel that, but it makes it tough to read. Amrun has been extremely difficult, all of her reads are very plausible. I don't like some of the Hectic progression, and Amrun instantly asking the leading questions (beginning in #274, continuing until I flexed a bit) to see if I would give her something to pounce on is worse in hindsight when I realize that it came shortly after her vote on Asriel (now Farkran)

I don't like my lynch preference right now. Farkran -> Amrun -> Nacho -> Chemist, where I can easily see both of Nacho/Amrun being town. I don't think I'd learn a lot from seeing only one of her/Nacho flip town, either, so I'm really not eager to lynch there.

I feel like I'm wrong somewhere and I don't like it. My fear is that it's on one of Farkran/Chara/Hectic.

I wonder if i have been correct with my initial push on Replica back in d1. I have been clashing with him since forever, but i thought the conviction and passion displayed were genuine and i was just being unable to see eye to eye with him. I have been in games where i had very strong TvT fights, where i hated pretty much all of a specific player's post, only to have them become conftown by death. I thought this was very likely going to be one of those cases.

This post, however, i... just cannot stand. Are you saying that you need a flip, now of all times, because you are unsure of your previous reads on Farkran/Hectic/Chara? Like, i have been fighting with those two for one day and a half, you were 101% certain of which side you should have taken, and

today

you are doubting your massive confidence in it? After Hectic was spared? Please tell me, what happened that changed your mind so much, when yesterday you were confident enough to change your spare of Bingle into a spare of Hectic for the SPECIFIC PURPOSE of not resolving the day in a flip. You could have easily unvoted your spare and get a Farkran flip. Chara would have gladly rejoined my wagon. Amrun would have joined. Even i would have joined, and it's not like i didn't say it.

Why did you spare Hectic? Give me a full explanation of your townread of hectic. A detailed post about what caused you to trust him so much as to compromise on sparing him instead of lynching me yesterday.

And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing

both

.

[Replica]

Flip was the opposite of what I was asking for; I didn't initially place a vote and explicitly said I wasn't comfortable lynching any of the bottom 3 people on the list, and thought that a town flip from any of them would tell me basically nothing.

The entire assertion that I did a heal on Hectic to "avoid a flip" is disingenuous and ignores the fact that sparing is how we win games imo.

Hectic spare has been explained to death, I wasn't confident he was town, and I have spent more than enough time this game explaining it to you and backlinking posts. Sorry but I'm tired of it, it's a wall of rehashed garbage, no.

[Replica]

Sorry, bottom 3 of 4 (Nacho, Amrun, Chemist)

[Replica]

Literally if you can't understand why I spared Hectic over lynching you yesterday, you have not understood a single post I have made all game.

[Chara]

Replica: what do you want me to look at when i next have time to devote? it should be tonight or early tomorrow. but after going through the rest of this it will probably be Nacho.

i don't really understand how you have Chemist at a higher confidence for town than Amrun. Nacho i sort of get, but i should maybe put effort in that direction if i can't decide where to put my focus, since it's more that i lack a read on him than i agree with him being in a lynchpool. come to think of it i don't think i've given Nacho any attention at all.

and by the Amrun thing i mean i suppose i understand what you mean by her questioning towards you (don't know offhand what you mean by Amrun's Hectic progression but don't have time to check), but with respect to Chemist, i thought his response to Farkran's case was fine if not strongly AI. it's engagement but i feel like it's the easiest kind considering Farkran was and remained his strongest TR.

Amrun i feel has been engaging more naturally with the list as a whole. i don't have experience with scum Amrun so i can't compare it to any baseline but ignoring meta it's behaviour i like.

i don't want to jump the gun but regarding Bingle i'm enjoying that he now has the time and means to read the game and that it seems to have affected his reads on Farkran and i. curious about his Amrun case. i had thought he didn't plan to engage at all and don't remember him saying he was limited to mobile, but he did probably say that somewhere if he claims he did.

the only thing about Amrun i don't really like is her continued desire to lynch Bingle while not getting anything AI from his posting since repping in. i don't know if that's changed or not.

[Chara]

And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.

this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.

[Replica]

I don't really have anything specific I want you to look at. I'm feeling pretty aimless right now and don't know where to look myself. The reads I really want (Nacho/Amrun) are the ones I'm struggling to get. The problem with my lynchpool is I

don't actually have a read on either of them

, they're just there by default.

For Chemist/vs. Amrun question, it's just that I think Amrun is fully capable of doing all she's done this game as scum. It wouldn't surprise me in the least. That doesn't mean that she's playing anti-town or playing poorly. Chemist I think the depth/effort and nuance put into the interaction with Farkran is a bit out of reach for what I think a scumChemist is capable of.

[Replica]

ie. The best thing for me is probably to go your own way and hopefully something new at the table helps me out incidentally, whether that's confirming the townlean on you or getting me to think of a new angle towards someone else

[Replica]

I still want to post my original reply to #1829 before I decided to be slightly less of a dick, which was:

"nah lol"

[Farkran]

Currently i hate Nacho's and Replica's posturing but i cannot see them as SvS. I hate Chara's progression from d1 eod until now. I am unsure whether Amrun has any clue about what to do and i'm starting to be concerned about her not having a clear read after a 3 days long rehash of the same thing. Bingle and Chemist are now probably my highest townreads, one of them has just started producing useful content and the other is MIA since forever.

I am also concerned whether or not i have been correct about Hectic/Chara, at this point. I feel that scum is trying to manipulate the gamestate into achieving a favorable lylo where they can cash in on the pocketed spared players, but at the same time saving the opportunity to turn against them by suddenly reconsidering all their previous reads today, then consolidating that move by achieving a mislynch which would explain how Hectic could be actually scum - i.e. me - and go "oh shit we have been wrong all along!" into lylo. This would point to town!Hectic, remains unchanged for scum!Nacho and scum!Chara, open the doors for scum!Replica and scum!Amrun.

I'm not sure if i want to buy this explanation over scum!Hectic, but it sure is a gamestate i don't like, and it wouldn't be fixed with a Farkran lynch

today

. I want to reread sherlock and psyche ISO.

[Amrun]

HURT: Farkran

I’m conflicted about this, as I am about many things this game.


It would be so easy to criticize Replica for lack of commitment here but the reality is that we are reading the game almost exclusively the same way except in regards to Bingle. That would make me feel very weird if Replica turned out to be scum so I just don’t think they are.

It would be pretty easy to fabricate a read on me and Nacho if they wanted to.

Even if we get a townflip today, we need so desperately to rule out someone as scum, and Farkran is a fantastic slot for most everyone’s PoE I think. And maybe the gods will shine on me and he will flip red.

My TR of Chara is decreasing because his reads don’t seem to be evolving, but at the same time... I agree with basically everything he posts.

This game is so frustrating.

[Replica]

Considering the fact that I wasn't confident in Hectic, switched to it despite having a TR on Bingle, and specifically wanted a spare over a lynch yesterday despite this lack of confidence has already been acknowledged by Farkran in #1534, and given that he's seen me say 20x over that lynching scum has never, at any point, been in my plans for the game, I again find it very difficult to believe that Farkran is not working backwards and that this is an organic progression.

The progression for Farkran has been like:

Day 1:
1) Replace in. I'm not voting him and I like his activity and initially slot him as a townlean. He likes me, even though he disagrees with my spare arguments.
2) I remove him from the townleans. He asks why. I say it's because I think his activity/shoving he's probably capable of as scum, and I'd rather focus on longterm reads.
3) He goes on the offensive, It's my personality. No wait, it's the spare route, that I initially understood but now don't at all. Okay, it's kind of both. Well, whatever. Absolutely gets more than he bargained for and has other players side with me.
4) Whoops, it's not that they're mafia, Replica is actually just frustrated, but dumb, town. They're not pushing a lynch at least haha so I can say that. This lasts through Day 2.

Day 2:
5) I vote him to counter a Bingle wagon
6) Oh man, maybe it's really Replica after all, but also it's with the counterwagon Bingle haha
7) Alright there's no indicator I've ever understood what Replica was saying but I'll drop it Replica is town again

Day 3:
8) Replica is still town for uh, genuine TvT frustration. Just dumb tunneling town.
9) I vote him because I don't have any other confident scumreads and we're probably lynching today.
10) Wait a second let's go back to basically exactly what we hashed out mid Day 2 Replica is potentially scum again

I again see no reason to believe this guy is capable of working forwards as scum, I have only seen him work backwards, and Nacho has picked up on the same trend even if he's unsure how to feel about it.

[Amrun]

I don’t think there’s a question he’s working backwards, just whether or not it’s AI.

For some reason, the way Farkran talked about Psyche’s NK as a matter of course continues to ping me every time I read it.

It’s not that he’s wrong - it actually made me reconsider my stance on Psyche night kill. It just seemed like he thought about it a lot.

Idk, I don’t have a good reason why it pings me which is why I didn’t say before, but it’s stuck with me.

[Farkran]

Replica, if you are town, you are just bad at this game. I too am tired to read your not-so-faintly offensive posts about me. Unfortunately there is actually a significant chance that you are still town. None of the kills suit scum!you, none of the spares make more sense for scum!you than any of {Chara, Nacho, Amrun}.

Just explain to me what changed your mind about Hectic and Chara.

pedit: Amrun, you had your chance yesterday. Today we lynch Chara or Nacho. Any other lynch is pointless at this moment.

pedit2: yeah. What changed your confidence in Hectic?

[Replica]

HURT: Farkran

I’m conflicted about this, as I am about many things this game.


It would be so easy to criticize Replica for lack of commitment here but the reality is that we are reading the game almost exclusively the same way except in regards to Bingle. That would make me feel very weird if Replica turned out to be scum so I just don’t think they are.

It would be pretty easy to fabricate a read on me and Nacho if they wanted to.

Even if we get a townflip today, we need so desperately to rule out someone as scum, and Farkran is a fantastic slot for most everyone’s PoE I think. And maybe the gods will shine on me and he will flip red.

My TR of Chara is decreasing because his reads don’t seem to be evolving, but at the same time... I agree with basically everything he posts.

This game is so frustrating.

Normally I think statements like "If you're town here..." are theatrics best left after the game, but I want to say that I really do like your play all game, and appreciate that we've been onboard for a lot of it. Given our rocky start I'm really surprised and pleased how well we've been able to come together at multiple points.

The better you are as a player, the harder it is to get a townread from me, and that can be kind of frustrating so I'm sorry. It's important to know it's out of respect and appreciation for you though, regardless of your alignment. I'm extremely cautious and doubtful of my reads.

[Replica]

Replica, if you are town, you are just bad at this game. I too am tired to read your not-so-faintly offensive posts about me. Unfortunately there is actually a significant chance that you are still town. None of the kills suit scum!you, none of the spares make more sense for scum!you than any of {Chara, Nacho, Amrun}.

Just explain to me what changed your mind about Hectic and Chara.

pedit: Amrun, you had your chance yesterday. Today we lynch Chara or Nacho. Any other lynch is pointless at this moment.

pedit2: yeah. What changed your confidence in Hectic?

nah lol

[Farkran]

yeah. What changed your confidence in Hectic?

[Bingle]

Snip

Rep/Fark is a team I didn't analyze very thoroughly but looking back you have a point. (I mostly glossed over the Rep teams because of the individual towniness of Rep. It's also why he was so early in the list.)

I think you're mistaking trying to think from a scum POV and trying to think "What would I do here as scum." There are players who scheme and are methodical as scum. They're not the norm. Neither Hectic or Chara fit into that perspective from what I know of them, and I've played with both of them quite a few times (although admittedly I know Chara's style mostly from it hydraing with A50.) The idea that either of them would choose "Let's draw attention to the one of us who isn't being spared by having them delay the wagon on the other who WON'T flip when the spare goes through in the hopes of towncred should either of us be lynched later" is very :/ both because it presumes that they are an entirely different type of player than I think they are (and I don't think either is hard to get a bead on in that sense) AND it's a very unlikely bit of towncred to go hunting for. At best, it helps Hectic if we lynch Chara and it flips red. At worst, it prevents Chara spare.

Similarly, Replica/Chara is a team you're discounting based on what you would do in that position, and I doubt fully that you have a good enough bead on Rep's style to say for sure what he'd try to do as scum generally, let alone in a specific situation. I also disagree wholeheartedly that "it would be easy to get a Farkran lynch through". You were being voted by Hectic, and Hectic alone. Chara/Rep could have swung to you, sure, but that does not a wagon make. A large portion of the town wanted a spare regardless. I was townreading you, and I think Amrun/Psyche/Nacho etc had all expressed some degree of "I disagree but think he's town anyway." wrt your slot. I'm also not sure how Nacho doubling down on his townread on Hectic and then immediately getting a vote for his wagon (from me) in any way indicates he's going to be willing to spare a weaker townread who is being pushed as scum by exactly the same person as his stronger townread.

Nacho/Hectic being a result of Nacho asking Hectic for his scumgames is a world where Nacho asks Hectic for his scumgames to use as meta, finds out his buddy is bad at scum, and then chooses to doubledown on his buddy being able to maintain a strong enough townread to be spared. Unless you think that Nacho's meta is faked (and I don't see any arguments that it is) then that's a frankly baffling method to take.

As far as how I would go about getting a partner spared? I wouldn't commit to a strategy like that in the early game. I play a reactive scumgame unless there is a clear reason not to (see role call and a mechwin on D3). The most important thing for scum in this setup is to ensure the first lynch is on town. All other concerns are secondary. If one of you is townread enough to get spared, go for it, otherwise play normally and respond to what the thread is putting out. Locking yourself in to a course of action just means you react woodenly when things come up.

[Bingle]

I don’t hate the content, though I feel he’s about to come in with some huge bogus case on me but we will see.

The case exists, I just haven't typed it up yet and I'm interested to see the state of the thread before I do.

[Bingle]

Amrun i feel has been engaging more naturally with the list as a whole.

Really?

Cause personally I've felt that engaging with Amrun has had all the difficulty of leading a camel through the eye of a needle, and has since I replaced in.

[Farkran]

Snip

Rep/Fark is a team I didn't analyze very thoroughly but looking back you have a point. (I mostly glossed over the Rep teams because of the individual towniness of Rep. It's also why he was so early in the list.)

I think you're mistaking trying to think from a scum POV and trying to think "What would I do here as scum." There are players who scheme and are methodical as scum. They're not the norm. Neither Hectic or Chara fit into that perspective from what I know of them, and I've played with both of them quite a few times (although admittedly I know Chara's style mostly from it hydraing with A50.) The idea that either of them would choose "Let's draw attention to the one of us who isn't being spared by having them delay the wagon on the other who WON'T flip when the spare goes through in the hopes of towncred should either of us be lynched later" is very :/ both because it presumes that they are an entirely different type of player than I think they are (and I don't think either is hard to get a bead on in that sense) AND it's a very unlikely bit of towncred to go hunting for. At best, it helps Hectic if we lynch Chara and it flips red. At worst, it prevents Chara spare.

Similarly, Replica/Chara is a team you're discounting based on what you would do in that position, and I doubt fully that you have a good enough bead on Rep's style to say for sure what he'd try to do as scum generally, let alone in a specific situation. I also disagree wholeheartedly that "it would be easy to get a Farkran lynch through". You were being voted by Hectic, and Hectic alone. Chara/Rep could have swung to you, sure, but that does not a wagon make. A large portion of the town wanted a spare regardless. I was townreading you, and I think Amrun/Psyche/Nacho etc had all expressed some degree of "I disagree but think he's town anyway." wrt your slot. I'm also not sure how Nacho doubling down on his townread on Hectic and then immediately getting a vote for his wagon (from me) in any way indicates he's going to be willing to spare a weaker townread who is being pushed as scum by exactly the same person as his stronger townread.

Nacho/Hectic being a result of Nacho asking Hectic for his scumgames is a world where Nacho asks Hectic for his scumgames to use as meta, finds out his buddy is bad at scum, and then chooses to doubledown on his buddy being able to maintain a strong enough townread to be spared. Unless you think that Nacho's meta is faked (and I don't see any arguments that it is) then that's a frankly baffling method to take.

As far as how I would go about getting a partner spared? I wouldn't commit to a strategy like that in the early game. I play a reactive scumgame unless there is a clear reason not to (see role call and a mechwin on D3). The most important thing for scum in this setup is to ensure the first lynch is on town. All other concerns are secondary. If one of you is townread enough to get spared, go for it, otherwise play normally and respond to what the thread is putting out. Locking yourself in to a course of action just means you react woodenly when things come up.

Well, it prevented a Chara spare so much that it was the top spare wagon for a while, during d2. But i guess i really, really have different standards about how scum would think and play, because you can't ALL have rolled scum and contrast my every post, every time, in every game. Apparently fame and reputation go miles ahead than logic and good play, because i have seen TOWN players achieving flash lynches against TOWN literally within 24 hours of their rep-in, just because they asked.

I'd very much like to know who Replica is, because none of what he's doing make sense yet i cannot still have him as my highest scumread in this game. Regardless, i don't think i have ever played with his main. I would remember.

A Farkran flip would have been very easy to obtain both d1 and d2 anyways, and i hate how people are suddenly reconsidering their reads in favor of my flip today, right after Hectic has been spared, when literally nothing happened that could change d1 OR d2 reads wrt both me and Hectic. I am looking forward to see how Nacho and Chara will react around this.

In the meanwhile, good night i guess, since Replica isn't deigning to answer my question.