Mini Normal 2114: Game Over

[insomnia]

I honestly hope I'm wrong on one of them and someone will flip scum but I think those are like really low odds. Nothing that's being presented is anything that will make either one of them flip scum. There's tons of shit to town read them for and really few stuff to scum read them for.

My PoE literally doesn't change regardless of what happened today.

Titus just dies tonight so I don't have to worry about a potential kill so the town cases can be presented later on.

I want to wait for Auro to explain his shenanigans before hammering Pine.

[insomnia]

If you ctrl+f Nicholai's ISO, he starts with a scum lean on Rex which he keeps coming back to, and near the end he starts cozying up to Rex. What would scum!Rex gain off of killing Nicholai?

In hindsight, all of y'all peeps cases were how bad Kanna and Rex's votes were on MB

And look who the N1 kill is, the guy who had solid meta on Kanna and vocally admitted to Kana being obvtown here and he also started town reading Rex. Would an active player that has the potential of interfering with mislynches impose a threat to scum? Gonna let you peeps ponder on that for a bit, Rex is not scum, I am not scum. In what world does scum!Rex or scum!me kill Nicholai? and to what end? I lose a person that town reads the living hell out of me and Rex dumps the opportunity of being town read by the most universally town read person in the whole thread.

the only PoE that should be considered is bob / pine / invisibility and that's it. Nicholai had some bad feels for joges at first and for invis as well.

Ank how do you feel about wagoning invis with me

In your iso at this point you have too little justification. Whilst you may have stated that you scumread him, you have little evidence he is scummy, and so to attempt to start a wagon without absolute certainty Invisibility is scum isn’t good.

I have the impression Gjt is justifying something that could be summed up in a few words but instead tries to overjustify himself which is usually a scum trademark, but like... ergh

I disagree. It is always better to overjustify than underjustify, no matter which alignment you play. By “over justifying” you ensure that your logic is fully understood by everyone, which allows you to convince people to vote with you. It is beneficial for scum because it causes mislynch, and beneficial for town because the person you think is scum gets lynched.
Therefore, overjustification cannot indicate alignment.

VOTE: Nomnomnom

In my honest opinion, this is too little of a progression to signify that it's a scum progression. My impression of Rex is that he's a logical player and if he had TMI that Nom was his partner with, he most definitely wouldn't have placed a naked vote after having only 2 lines with nom that he knows he'll get scrutinised for.

Moreover, I think he would've felt the urging need to point something highly scum indicative before moving onto her. His logical personality doesn't line up with my mental map of how a logical-centred person would choose to bus here. He either completely ignores the slot, or buries it in evidence before placing a final vote.

If he was pre-planning a bus, then those posts absolutely suck from a scum!him perspective that wants to bus a team mate. Again, he was too calm and spoke to her as if she was town there / a person that he has no read on, it's virtually impossible for him not to feel some sort of pressure there to create some form of anti-spew or make a post that really incriminates her before placing a vote.

If he wanted to bus his scum bud, he would've buried her. I don't think Rex would've allowed himself to risk placing a naked vote on someone he has no engagement with for the whole time and then, knowing that he'll have to explain his switch, kill the person that could've defended him, going through the night.

It just makes no sense. You don't decide to bus a scum partner so openly without having anything to gain in return, and only to lose.

I'm probably never lynching Rex and neither should you, but you do you. This is not a wolf bussing a wolf or a wolf that knows his wolf partner is going to die so he falls under pressure somehow.

[Looker]

UNVOTE:

[insomnia]

{Titus, Looker, TFL, Rex}

{FL}

{bob, pine , auro}

i don't know what else to say but to lynch in those 3 only and if FL is still alive at endgame, lynch him. we have exactly 4 mislynches. if I can make my top towns in there recognize each other and stop fighting, then it is a won game for me.

Looker, I'm not trying to call you dumb or anything, and I'd like if you didn't put such words in my mouth. I just am frustrated that my two towns are fighting each other while the scum are doing nothing. I want to make you see town TFL, I want to work with you, but you're the one mockingly dismissing my opinion. I replaced in the game because I thought Kanna was town and I wanted to help town. It sucks when my town fight each other, and if it came across as me implying you're dumb or anything - although I 100% believe I didn't even imply that - then I'm sorry. For me, my reads are well justified in my head, I probably have a lot more thoughts in my head that I simply can't convey. Some of them may come across as silly, or not strong enough for you, but I am working on trying to compile every strong reasoning that implies town!TFL.

It doesn't help that TFL and Rex are obvious mislynch candidates because of how they're posting / what they're posting, but you have to learn to grow past that aspect of not liking how / what someone posts and empathize with them, try and get in their head. I have tried to do this with Rex in that post above. I will do so with TFL, although I already have thoughts like that scattered through my ISO.

Looker, why do you think TFL is scum?

[Auro]

Weird question to ask if you share the same feelings. Feels as though you never even had the feeling of TFL scum in the first place.

You know he's scum? You're 100% sure?
I don't see a case in your ISO - perhaps I'm missing something.
If your case is that he's playing bad, that's not strong enough.
If your case is that he's lynchbaity but you're the only slot pushing him... meh. My predecessor was also lynchbaity (apparently); why wasn't my slot a good vote?

I want to see justification for why TFL is scum versus just "bad town".

Also: This is to evaluate Looker's own case; I don't imply I share the same feelings, and that should be obvious when I state elsewhere I'm losing my scumread of him.

---

Auro, who's scum with Pine?

Titus/Pine

is a valid solve.

her (Looker) refusal to lynch Pine lends

partner equity to Pine

and thus, he's a good lynch anyways

---

How did you even end up asking TFL to vote Pine with you after the push you had on him?

UNVOTE:
I don't townread Titus anymore, and I'm

losing my TFL scumread

as well.

FL, I said I'm

not scumreading TFL

anymore, right? So to me, it's indeed possible that my wagon was all town.

Also: I like his attack on Titus, and carefree attitude towards his lynch.

---

You could find answers to most of your questions if you just read my posts. I don't get the point of these.

[Auro]

Also, don't hammer; I think it's commonly accepted better play to claim intent and draw a claim first?

[insomnia]

I wanted something more elaborated. Like thoughts that maybe rush through your hide but didn't feel like posting.

If there wasn't a solid scum case on TFL at all, then you must've had some reasoning of your own for voting there surely, no? I want that.

It feels like you're swinging at random and I don't understand still why you have no opinion of bob. He's also here, also posting, also voting for your push.

I want a concrete read on bob.

[insomnia]

head* not hide.

[Auro]

Insomnia, surely you must know it's not necessary to vote someone *only if* you have a concrete scum case on them?
A prominent characteristic of my play is hard pushing people to see how they react, who else joins, etc.

I did point out reasons for pushing TFL back then - inconsistencies in the logic behind his Titus push, his piling on to a wagon on me, that he was an achievable wagon.
I also pointed out reasons for reversing my TFL read in the above post - my disliking Titus, (and thus) that he was attacking Titus at all, his attitude around the lynch.

"Swinging at random" and "Shenanigans" seem like disingenuous accusations to make.

If Bob's voting Pine I'm cool with that As I said, I don't make much out of his play this day anyway, and I can't really get myself to read his earlier posts.

[Titus]

VOTE: Rex

I never could get into 9. 8 I could though. Maybe because Squall was hot.

[insomnia]

That's a red flag auro...You said we lynch in my PoE. What changed?

1. Your reasons for townreading TFL aren't strong enough, versus his scummy play
2. I played the game, was always liable to change my reads from your PoE
3. I've mentioned that both Pine and TFL have scum equity; TFL is a more achievable lynch
4. Pine's post unvoting me after FL's "threat" seems weird coming from scum who'd know I'm town and that I can shift off momentum

This isn't a "red flag".

This doesn't sound like a pressure vote, Auro.

[insomnia]

That reads more like "I locked Pine and TFL in a PoE, Pine's towned it up, so I'm voting TFL instead, my other scum read"

Reads nothing like a "pressure" vote :shrug:

[insomnia]

Meh I want an Auro lynch today.

[Auro]

A vote can have a set of various weighted reasons behind it, and doesn't have to be *purely* a pressure vote / concrete scumcase-backed vote, etc. Hell, I can just vote for the lulz if I want to. Your accusation that I'm "swinging around" doesn't have much merit, because my only presented read changes have been on Titus and TFL.

And where did Pine town it up? His attack on FL and my unvote? I don't read that as towny, just that it's a weird move for scum. I don't believe that others will read that as towny enough to not want to lynch Pine either.

My thoughts would be more accurately summarized as: "Pine cos PoE and no posts; oh wait TFL's posts are bad, people want to lynch him, cool let's vote there; oh wait Titus may be scum and I'm changing my mind on TFL; also Titus and Looker have decent equity with Pine, let's go back there".

[insomnia]

that's lazy.

and you keep doing what you're best at, juggling through words. the fact that matters is that you find it weird pine as scum would make a move like that, thus you are doubting him, and then you go "yeah let's lynch pine" after switching your TFL read for essentially nothing.

your Pine read also implies you changed your mind on Looker / a scum read raised out of the blue without mentioning anything about the slot.

A vote can have a set of various weighted reasons behind it, and doesn't have to be *purely* a pressure vote / concrete scumcase-backed vote, etc. Hell, I can just vote for the lulz if I want to. Your accusation that I'm "swinging around" doesn't have much merit, because my only presented read changes have been on Titus and TFL.

This is saying nothing. You said you wanted to discern TFL's alignment, and when you got called out, you moved the goal post to "well a vote can mean anything, i could've voted him for whatever". so you had no reason to vote TFL is what you're trying to say?

you said it was to discern his alignment and now you moved the goal post to "it could've been anything, i could've voted for the lols". Why switch it to a hypothetical and ignore the context in which the vote was made?

this says you had no reason to vote TFL at all.

[Auro]

I also now believe Insomnia has partner equity with Pine as well. Although Pine is on the same tier as me in his recent reads post, I get the feeling he doesn't *really* want to lynch Pine; if Bob is town, his "plan" of going through the three lynches with Pine being the last lynch offers him enough towncred to coast for the rest of the game given Pine's negative associations with other slots.

His attack on me feels stretched. The questions seem largely empty as my answers could, in large part, be found at worst a couple pages behind. His questions also carry assumptions ("share feelings") that intend to make me look scummy, when it's obvious they're not true.

My reason to doubt Pine is very weak and doesn't make me want to keep him alive. I continue to townread Looker *unless* Pine is in fact scum, which is a flip I want (thus, "partner equity with Pine").

"No reason to vote TFL": you very well know, Insomnia, that I said I *can* vote someone for the lulz and that's not a gotcha scumcase; I've laid out my reasons for my vote at that point. It was *not* a lulz vote, although it could very well be and still be NAI. This is not moving the goalposts. This is me demonstrating the weakness in your argument.

[Auro]

If you want an argument sans the "word juggling":

Voting for the lulz should be NAI; voting for mildly strong reasons should thus also be NAI at worst; my reasons weren't a concrete case or purely pressure, but a mix of different factors - still NAI at worst.

[Auro]

we have exactly 4 mislynches

Also, I believe this is incorrect; there are 9 alive and assuming 2 mafia left, we have exactly 2 mislynches to expend before we need to hit both scum; is there something I missed?

[insomnia]

I could've lynched Pine and proceed with lynching the other slots, that gives me more credit than lynching him last. Especially when some people scum read me for VCA alone.

Here's the totally not obvious assumption and the stretch :

WIFOM aside, maybe they're already under heavy suspicion and one more mislynch would out them to everyone. That's WIFOM for a hypothetical, though.

I mean, I was speaking from the viewpoint that there are legitimate reasons for pushing me.

I've read bits of a few ISOs. I'll read yours.

VOTE: TheFuzzyLogic

I gave you an obvious explanation for Titus' behavior. Why have you ignored that?

If you are still in the phase of inquiry, why have you placed down a vote?

Game's moving too slow; looking at what wagons can be built is part of scumhunting engagement and not just questions, etc.

Being "dumb" isn't a towntell, I've been pushed for very dumb logic before from otherwise competent slots which I townread because it seemed sincere enough - nah, it was scum.

That's a red flag auro...You said we lynch in my PoE. What changed?

1. Your reasons for townreading TFL aren't strong enough, versus his scummy play
2. I played the game, was always liable to change my reads from your PoE
3. I've mentioned that both Pine and TFL have scum equity; TFL is a more achievable lynch
4. Pine's post unvoting me after FL's "threat" seems weird coming from scum who'd know I'm town and that I can shift off momentum

This isn't a "red flag".

FL, help me see Fuzzy town? I think as a player he should be pretty logical, so his push on Titus doesn't make much sense when her behavior was explained.

Why Insomnia? I thought that slot was obv town.

Why do you believe TFL is scum over bad town?

Scum reads him and then asks someone about why they think he's scum over just bad town. No way someone that expresses a scum read even has that thought in their head. A town wouldn't carry that duality in his head unless he had reasons to believe Fuzzy was mislynch bait, which doesn't come across in his posts, at all.

Auro's whole contribution today and reads were revolved around pre-flip sucky associations.

Also, what the fuck is this saying??????

"No reason to vote TFL": you very well know, Insomnia, that I said I *can* vote someone for the lulz and that's not a gotcha scumcase; I've laid out my reasons for my vote at that point. It was *not* a lulz vote, although it could very well be and still be NAI. This is not moving the goalposts. This is me demonstrating the weakness in your argument.

i can't even coherently transform this into an interpretation lmfao

[insomnia]

FL we have a deal. Deal is you're voting with me.

Titus, please vote Auro.

[insomnia]

Pine is at 4 votes, there's no counter wagon, he's getting lynched in almost all worlds. Your argument about me trying to defend him holds no value at all. Why would I mind my dead weight scum bud dying when I can get huge credit anyway.

I'd most likely bus him effortlessly and ride that til late game. He's useless for me as a scum buddy. I'd love to bus him.

[Auro]

I could've lynched Pine and proceed with lynching the other slots, that gives me more credit than lynching him last.

No. The credit will burn by then time you lynch the last slot in the three. A Pine scumflip "opens up" the game via other associations. Plus, you may even not receive credit for it, given FL already says it could simply be a Pine+Insomnia solve.

Scum reads him and then asks someone about why they think he's scum over just bad town.

I asked someone why they believed TFL was scum over bad town

AFTER

I stated I am losing my scumread of TFL; plus, that was an attack on their own read and it doesn't need my agreement on the conclusion.
I don't see why you struggle to understand that? You talk about some 'duality' and all, but I literally posted in thread that I'm losing my scumread of him... so what's hard to grok there?
Here, let me requote it to you:

UNVOTE:
I don't townread Titus anymore, and I'm losing my TFL scumread as well.

I want to see justification for why TFL is scum versus just "bad town".

3126 comes before 3225.

i can't even coherently transform this into an interpretation lmfao

I'll interpret it in even simpler words:

Vote someone for the lulz

: NAI

Vote someone for semi-legitimate reasons

: NAI at worst
And this isn't even the primary point of my argument as you're making it look like.

[insomnia]

I asked someone why they believed TFL was scum over bad town AFTER I stated I am losing my scumread of TFL

Why do you believe TFL is scum over bad town?

UNVOTE:
I don't townread Titus anymore, and I'm losing my TFL scumread as well.

[Auro]

Pine is at 4 votes, there's no counter wagon

And yet...

Looker is trying to push a TFL wagon.
Titus is trying to push a TFL wagon, and is now trying to push a Rex wagon.
You're trying to divert to an Auro wagon.

All three are viable Pine partners.

[Auro]

^^Even then, my thought process is reflected in 3126, and is also an attack on Looker.