Titus v. Alisae (endgame)

[Titus]

FL, what is your AF read?

[Reasonably Rational]

i thought you thought that aaronfrost is basically confscum

He is, but I see infinite value in letting confscum sit around talking while trying to preserve their life, especially when Titus is grilling them. Unfortunately, when I get to L-2 I sorta have to vote to ensure that lynch goes through instead of giving him the opportunity to live another day, no matter how much value I find there to be in whatever he might have to say.

-Cerb

[Flavor Leaf]

I’ve kind of dropped off. While I don’t scum read him per say, I wouldn’t be surprised by him flipping scum.

Which also makes sense, AF absolutely would play in a way where I wouldn’t catch him as scum, expecting me to catch him later.

If AF is scum, he has told Alisae “FL will eventually catch me”

[OkaPoka]

i thought you thought that aaronfrost is basically confscum

He is, but I see infinite value in letting confscum sit around talking while trying to preserve their life, especially when Titus is grilling them. Unfortunately, when I get to L-2 I sorta have to vote to ensure that lynch goes through instead of giving him the opportunity to live another day, no matter how much value I find there to be in whatever he might have to say.

-Cerb

you do you i guess

[Titus]

i thought you thought that aaronfrost is basically confscum

He is, but I see infinite value in letting confscum sit around talking while trying to preserve their life, especially when Titus is grilling them. Unfortunately, when I get to L-2 I sorta have to vote to ensure that lynch goes through instead of giving him the opportunity to live another day, no matter how much value I find there to be in whatever he might have to say.

-Cerb

I don't think we're getting anymore associations from AF.

Who do you and Drixx think the last scum is?

[OkaPoka]

maybe we can get RR to claim shots today?

[OkaPoka]

Would like a chart of all mechanical claims and actions.

Night 1

Bitmap neighborizes Ankamius
Chemist neighborizes AaronFrost
ReasonablyRational neighborizes Chemist
Amrun friendlyneighbors GobbledyGook, success!
Hectic rolecops OkaPoka, - Vanilla
Espeonage Disloyal FriendlyNeighbors OkaPoka - OkaPoka didn't claim!
Pine rolecops Amrun - No result
Spiffeh is killed

Night 2

Chemist voyeurs Sherlock and Watson, no result
Pine rolecops Espeonage, no result
Espeonage disloyal friendlyneighbors Gobbledy, Gobble didn't claim!
Amrun actions S_W, no claim
Hectic uses JOAT shot on ???
Insomnia is killed

Night 3

Ankamius no action'd
Pine rolecops Ank, ??? unclaimed, "positive thing"
Espeonage friendly neighbors Ankamius, no claim
Amrun is killed

Claims, going to assume all JOATS have 3 abilities

TSE - Babysitter/Vengeful
Pine - Ascetic Enabler Ninja

Investigative

FlavorLeaf - "Mason"
Hectic - "Mason" + JOAT Rolecop/Tracker/Neighborizer
OkaPoka - Vanilla Townie
Espeonage - Ascetic Compulsive Disloyal Friendly Neighborizer
Sherlock and Watson - Vanilla Townie
AaronFrost = "Mason"
Gobbledygook = "Cop"/Not Vanilla
Ankamius = JOAT X1/X2/X3
RR =

Ascetic

JOAT Neighborizer/Y2/Y3

[Titus]

RR, can you claim your shots? I am seconding Oka because I want to see if we can get Espy another result with your PRs?

[Reasonably Rational]

We can guarantee another result. Best not to say more than that. You should have gone and looked because Cerb gave you enough info to realize what we do. It would be a little better to have it be a bit less explicit but such is life.

AF plus someone who doesn't have a lot of scum equity is the solve, I think. {S&W, FL, Pine, TSE} seem like the most likely places. Gun to my head I'd say TSE mostly because of the reasons I stated before. His "theory" of the game smells, especially considering when it was presented and what happened just prior.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Also ... doesn't the fact that Espy is completely outed negate any ability to get info from the role? I feel like that would be wasted action economy?

~D

[OkaPoka]

i mean u might be on the chopping block rr

[Professor Moriarty]

VC 4.7

Reasonably Rational(4) ~ Hectic,

Alisae

, AaronFrost, gobbledygook, Flavor Leaf
AaronFrost(4) ~ Ankamius, OkaPoka, Sherlock and Watson, Reasonably Rational
Ankamius(1) ~ TrueSoulEnergy
Sherlock and Watson(0) ~

Titus

Not voting(2) ~ Espeonage, Pine

11 alive, 6 to lynch

Notes: This is a mobile VC because modding is all about sacrifice

[OkaPoka]

wow this is a very uncomfortable wagon comp to be on

[Ankamius]

This day will be informative if nothing else.

[OkaPoka]

massclaim please i cant wait until the becomes mountainous omg

[gobbledygook]

Also ... doesn't the fact that Espy is completely outed negate any ability to get info from the role? I feel like that would be wasted action economy?

~D

Correct. But it’s possible we never got any info either.

[Reasonably Rational]

Oka, fyi, I'm a guy who sits on a hard guilty for *at least* 5 RL days, ensures everyone has come and talked about shit, gently prodded the entire thread for reads etc, pushed a soft wagon on a null read, and only THEN do I actually share my hard guilty to end the day., after maximizing the extracted value.

-Cerb

pedit: Titus - Yeah, that's fair. Last scum pool depends entirely on whether or not e actually indicated their knowledge of Espe's role in any way prior to their claim. Hmm. Okay. So I'm actually thinking about this, and kinda running into some contradictory conclusions.

My first thought was that if e had hinted about the role previously, then the only reason to bring that up is to make people doubt the pool of clears, right? That also increases the scum equity of Espeonage. Mmm. Okay.

"Clears"
gobbledygook
Ankamius
OkaPoka

Weaker town evidence due to connection to "clears"
Hectic

So I see reasonable cause for scum equity in Pine and Espe, less so in S&W. I believe mechanically we should be removing Espe to create 3 "real" clears(assuming we have evidence of previous successful actions on these three slots, I'll need to review).

I think our best chance is to remove TSE, and assuming he flips town and is therefore not lying about being vengeful, he shoots either Pine or Espe; Pine shot is only necessary if we do not have evidence of previous successful actions on ank/oka/gobble, otherwise Espe shot makes more sense as that flip either ends the game or gives us 3 highly probtown. That leaves us with Pine, FL, and S&W, with S&W and FL tied for scum equity, and Pine as still improbable for the D1 claim.
TrueSoulEnergy>Espeonage/Pine>S&W/FL>Pine

This is all assuming that I'm right and AF flips scum of course. If he does not, shit get's messy.

I need to talk to Drixx to see if it's reasonable to locktown Espe; I don't think it is, but maybe he see's something I don't.

ppedit: Oh he's back, must bug.

-Cerb

[Alisae]

Yawn

[Flavor Leaf]

I think AF is the mislynch scum want here

[Alisae]

Oka, fyi, I'm a guy who sits on a hard guilty for *at least* 5 RL days, ensures everyone has come and talked about shit, gently prodded the entire thread for reads etc, pushed a soft wagon on a null read, and only THEN do I actually share my hard guilty to end the day., after maximizing the extracted value.

-Cerb

pedit: Titus - Yeah, that's fair. Last scum pool depends entirely on whether or not e actually indicated their knowledge of Espe's role in any way prior to their claim. Hmm. Okay. So I'm actually thinking about this, and kinda running into some contradictory conclusions.

My first thought was that if e had hinted about the role previously, then the only reason to bring that up is to make people doubt the pool of clears, right? That also increases the scum equity of Espeonage. Mmm. Okay.

"Clears"
gobbledygook
Ankamius
OkaPoka

Weaker town evidence due to connection to "clears"
Hectic

So I see reasonable cause for scum equity in Pine and Espe, less so in S&W. I believe mechanically we should be removing Espe to create 3 "real" clears(assuming we have evidence of previous successful actions on these three slots, I'll need to review).

I think our best chance is to remove TSE, and assuming he flips town and is therefore not lying about being vengeful, he shoots either Pine or Espe; Pine shot is only necessary if we do not have evidence of previous successful actions on ank/oka/gobble, otherwise Espe shot makes more sense as that flip either ends the game or gives us 3 highly probtown. That leaves us with Pine, FL, and S&W, with S&W and FL tied for scum equity, and Pine as still improbable for the D1 claim.
TrueSoulEnergy>Espeonage/Pine>S&W/FL>Pine

This is all assuming that I'm right and AF flips scum of course. If he does not, shit get's messy.

I need to talk to Drixx to see if it's reasonable to locktown Espe; I don't think it is, but maybe he see's something I don't.

ppedit: Oh he's back, must bug.

-Cerb

BORING

[Flavor Leaf]

Alisae, you’re spewing RR as scum

[Reasonably Rational]

(And yes, I do see the contradiction between thinking Pine both has scum equity and wouldn't make the claim he did on D1 as town; that's the problem.)

-Cerb

[OkaPoka]

hi cerb claim or else bye bye

[gobbledygook]

UNVOTE:

[Sherlock and Watson]

Ank where r u on pine now again ?

-S