Open 773: Masons and Mafia: RVS Awards (GAME OVER)

[popsofctown]

@Pops you were explicitly asked that question in your citation, so the context differs from here - where you offered it unprompted to a question of who's more likely mafia

I'll just mark this for a later look if I have the energy to do so

This is ridiculously inductive and like I don't think you think this. You're not even feigning linking this to my win condition, and it's sketchy as all get out that you're waiting to see how other players react to this angle before you double down on it by "looking into it", which isn't actually possible, there's no way you'd have copious time to read all of my games ever and investigate other places I have or haven't done this before.
You've been extremely political about my slot all game, saying I'm scummy and telegraphing it's a shame that you will have to push me at an undisclosed point in the future <when my lynch seems easy> and you have been shyer in direct proportion to people like Sujimichi replacing in and not joining the scumread rather than seeming to adjust based on my play.

VOTE: Auro

[Auro]

I think that it has reached the end of its productiveness at this point

I don't think so! I want to locate our sources of disagreement on a more atomic level, but I need to sleep, so tomorrow. I won't forget

[Auro]

This is ridiculously inductive and like I don't think you think this. You're not even feigning linking this to my win condition, and it's sketchy as all get out that you're waiting to see how other players react to this angle before you double down on it by "looking into it", which isn't actually possible, there's no way you'd have copious time to read all of my games ever and investigate other places I have or haven't done this before.

If you statistically did this many times as scum and never as town, why do I need to bother "linking" it with wincon? "Inductive" what?

I have access to the search tool. If I find in my searches that you've said it many times as scum and I don't see town games, it's indicative there aren't any. There could be some distinct phrasing that happens coincidentally (moreso with the skew in observed results) but then the burden of proof would fall to you.

Obviously I'm not going to read every game of yours.

[popsofctown]

If I mentioned Legends of Runeterra in 3 scum games and 0 town games would you say that it's a scumtell?

I'm a believer in statistics but in stats class they told us the bare minimum rule of thumb for a sampling process to at least somewhat have statistical significance was n=30, and I really doubt you'll get 30 samples.

[Auro]

You've been extremely political about my slot all game, saying I'm scummy and telegraphing it's a shame that you will have to push me at an undisclosed point in the future

Political? That's definitely an interesting accusation. I have multiple scumreads, am I automatically political about all the ones I'm not voting at the moment? I didn't say it'd be a shame to push you in the future, I was talking about the present.

[Auro]

I'm a believer in statistics but in stats class they told us the bare minimum rule of thumb for a sampling process to at least somewhat have statistical significance was n=30, and I really doubt you'll get 30 samples.

Lol that's way too high, I think n=5 scumgames with 0 towngames would be decent; you know you have to factor in the priors of number of town/scum games, right? With a much smaller number of scum games, the number of samples to make a sound inductive conclusion should be smaller as well. N=30 obviously isn't universal, c'mon now

[popsofctown]

In game I am mad at you but "what time is it now in Calcutta google" says half past midnight so I don't wanna ruin your sleep

I will fighto later

[Auro]

Sure thanks. I have a flight to catch and have to wake up in 3 hours anyway >.> Mafia is too addictive and I should prolly take a break again after I finish my current games.

On that note, I'll probably be only sparsely active till Tuesday.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Busy today. Will post tonight or tomorrow

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: Popsofctown catching up in a bit.

[woodchuck321]

UNVOTE:

idk why I'm still on Cheeky

also, why are we doing math now

also you are correct, absolute minimum of 30 samples to even see useful statistical patterns emerge

[TrueSoulEnergy]

TSE read pages 13/14, then the end of page 15 and a bit of 16

I’ll take a look.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

I read Auro’s posts.
It’s Null but leaning Town.

I didn’t read ML’s posts at all and can tell it’s probably scum Motivated
Although Pops responds with Suji before I also don’t like.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

@ML and Pops

What’s your Reads on each other?

[Miss Lane]

I didn’t read ML’s posts at all and can tell it’s probably scum Motivated

Lulwut

recommend at the very least

skimming

my posts.

[Miss Lane]

575 and on are 100% readable.

[Auro]

He's only talking about the pages mentioned before

[Auro]

{Pops, Suji, Egix, Woodchuck} 4/4

[Miss Lane]

Woodchuck seems intent on making himself seem like a favorable lynch.

[Auro]

Auro smells a bit off. Too much off-topic stuff or jokes.

This pop-in is so bad.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Auro smells a bit off. Too much off-topic stuff or jokes.

This pop-in is so bad.

He always makes pop-ins regardless of alignment.

[Chemist1422]

Yo

I haven't really caught up and am not really in the best mood, which is part of why I'm forcing myself to post

what's going on

[Auro]

Hot topic of discussion is scumtell statistics
How many instances of a certain behaviour should you observe in scum vs town games in someone's meta for it to be definitive evidence?
Pops and Woodchuck say 30, I think that's incorrect intuitively, in that that thumb rule doesn't apply in this case

[Chemist1422]

It'll never be definitive evidence, especially if they're a good enough player to be aware of it

Of course, that depends on what it is, because if it's something absurd and they've been lynched for it in the past it's a towntell

[Auro]

Ah. Well, if you change it from a "behaviour" to "specific set of words/phrases" which hasn't been called out before?