Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 1.07

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Lynching

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(2): Titus, TrueSoulEnergy

Ph0enix

(1): QuantumQuasar

Titus

(1): CheekyTeeky

LuckyLuciano

(1): Homura

CheekyTeeky

(1): Tapiocaphobe

QuantumQuasar

(1): Ph0enix

Tapiocaphobe

(1): Karnage

Not Voting

(1): LuckyLuciano

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-03-07 22:45:00).

Mod notes:

LuckyLuciano replaces LunarRest, please welcome them![/area]

[LuckyLuciano]

I've pretty much caught up on the DP. I'm going to be heading to sleep soon though. My preliminary thoughts are as follows (These were all notes being posted in the order I took them):

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.
- Leaning town on QQ. This sort of play, in my experience, never comes from a truly new player. He either has experience on MS and is an alt account who actually shouldn't be in the game, or he has off-site experience. Either way, he's either trolling or actually trying to win. If he's trolling then it isn't work reading him. If he's trying to win, then there is a rationale behind his post. [I'm redacting the rest of my notes here as it is more beneficial to mafia than town.]

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Follow-up on TSE

- I dislike #31 and #35.
-- #31, TSE appears to be consistently avoiding taking a stance. Sure, it's the earliest stages of the game where reads are weakest, but that is even more reason for town to pursue their gut reads in order to generate discussion and establish behavioral reads. Mafia benefits from leaving as many doors open by avoiding a static advocacy. In my experience, players who stay light on their feet are more often mafia than town. As town, players are less likely to even consider the need to change their views until a reason to do so is presented. As a figure of speech, they navigate through the DP with their feet more firmly planted.
-- #35 Let's break down his logic. TSE claims that if there is a mafia PR listed in the mafia pm, then it would not be normal for a player who has read that mafia pm to use the term, "Mafioso." This is because, while "mafioso" may be their default lingo when referring to mafia, this would be subconsciously replaced by the specified name for the mafia role provided in the role pm. Therefore, either (1) there is no mafia power role in the mafia pm, or (2) LR is town and has not read the mafia pm. (1) is a faulty deduction because even lacking a power role, the mafia pm should still state that the players are mafia goons, and that specified name for the mafia players would still override "mafioso" in LR's subconscious. As TSE is an SE player, it's possible that he has made this logical mistake before in the past. If he can go through his own meta and show an instance in which he's done so as town, I would read this as NAI. Absent a case of him having done this before as town, it feels like artificial analysis and he looks like scum to me.

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- Titus is probably town. Of all players in the game, they have shown the most consistent conviction in their reads and development thereof. Even when people cling to RVS, Titus is trying to progress the game so that the town have substantive interactions to build reads off of.

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- Cheeky is also town; for similar reasons as Titus.

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- Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura). Even though the Phi slot hasn't posted substance yet, I'm leaning town on everyone else so far so by PoE he's in this group. Reads can change later on, but I'm fine with a DP1 lynch of any of the above pending reasons to vote otherwise. As TSE is my strongest scumread atm, VOTE: TSE.

[Ph0enix]

Saw TSE and Phoenix as town while spectating. Will reread the game more carefully tomorrow; not feeling mafia right now.

I feel yeah.

Is that:

1. I feel the same way.

or

2. I do feel Mafia, despite you not.

[Ph0enix]

@LL: Could you elaborate more on your scumreads, TSE excluded? Also, are you putting everyone you haven't townread as possible scum because you genuinely suspect them? Because if it's due to the fact that you have insufficient information for a given player, especially on D1, one usually gives them a null read. I mean, having 4 scumreads in the middle of D1 is a bit much, I find.

[LuckyLuciano]

My only scumread is TSE. My scumbucket, or the pool of players who I currently think could be scum, consists of 4 players. I'm willing to lynch any of the 4 this DP, but I'd prefer TSE.

[CheekyTeeky]

Wow nice entrance, I'm sold. Both on LL being town and TSE having no WIM because he's scum here.

VOTE: TSE

LL is this your first game of mafia?

[LuckyLuciano]

This is my first game on MS. I've played for a few years on the now defunt debate.org. It's been about a year or so since I've played, however. What's WIM?

[CheekyTeeky]

I suppose that explains why you present so eloquently. WIM is Want It More, in the context of my usage I would translate as "passion" or "enthusiasm"

[CheekyTeeky]

I have played with TSE and have found that he's a very

passionate

player as town. He hasn't been hitting the right notes for me this game to townread him as yet so why not poke the bear?

[Plotinus]

QuantumQuasar¹ has been prodded and has (expired on 2020-03-04 09:37:10) to post before I start looking for a replacement.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

I honestly didn’t read the case on me. I’ll read it later.
But the fact that someone made a case on me looking at all my day 1 lynched newbie games (which is like almost all of them)
It is mainly town on my wagon. And they had a good push on me.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

I have played with TSE and have found that he's a very

passionate

player as town. He hasn't been hitting the right notes for me this game to townread him as yet so why not poke the bear?

No because I haven’t been paying that much attention to this game.
Hopefully that can change and I’ll pay more attention later.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

What is their scum meta?

[Karnage]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

I dont know about their meta but I didn't like 205

[Karnage]

Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura)

elaborate

[Titus]

@LL, I like your entry.

Can you elaborate on why Cheeky is town? I don't see it.

[Ph0enix]

My only scumread is TSE. My scumbucket, or the pool of players who I currently think could be scum, consists of 4 players. I'm willing to lynch any of the 4 this DP, but I'd prefer TSE.

So in the scenario where you no longer SR TSE, you are going to want to lynch anyone of the other 3 despite you not SRing them?

[Ph0enix]

Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura)

elaborate

Also, +1 here, your 204 didn't answer my question.

[Karnage]

@LL, I like your entry.

Can you elaborate on why Cheeky is town? I don't see it.

pssst... Titus... you didn't respond to my 190

[Titus]

No. I don't.

I do think it's too early for the strength you displayed.

The general concept though, no.

you're losing me here. the "strength" is displayed? I had a town lean on you. How was anything I said to that point stronger than your 55?

I'm ok tentatively placing you (ph0enix) as town based on the top post.

Not in those words. Yet you treated me as if your lean was much stronger when you looked at someone's posting and assumed they were buddying me.

[LuckyLuciano]

@LL, I like your entry.

Can you elaborate on why Cheeky is town? I don't see it.

14 This comes on strong and possible aggressive. Even though it's meant to be humorous and lackadaisical, I find it less likely for mafia to enter like this.
15 NAI
23 I thought the exact same thing while obvserving. You said you would put on your SE hat when a wagon started, and then moved to stop the wagon the moment it started picking up momentum. I understand why you ($Titus) hopped off the wagon and by no mean think it was the wrong move, but I also thought it was odd just like Cheeky did here. With me having access to my own role pm and knowing I'm town, and having thought that before even having a role pm (I think as a town while observing), this post makes me lean town on Cheeky through transposition. Also, it looks here like Cheeky is natural building reads.
39 NAI
40 NAI
41 Lean town. This read is the converse of why I lean town on TSE in 35
42 Null. Could have enough reasons now to justify a vote (town) or finally have someone to scapegoat if things go south (mafia).
93 Null. Both town and mafia have reason to drop votes on people using this sort of shtick.
95 Null. I'd need to read Cheeky's meta for this. In my experience, mafia are more likely to invoke OMGUS, but - and this is purely anecdotal and not meant to offend anyone - so are women of any alignment.
96 Null. Titus has been her target all game, it makes sense why QQ would be a consideration at this point.
102 Lean town. I thought this while observing as well. Lean town by transposition.
105 Lean town. Mafia doesn't want to generate discussion as to why their mislynch target is town.
126 NAI
127 Lean town. Still trying to generate content in the DP to base the final lynch vote on. More content is better for town.
134 NAI.
136 Lean town. Non-leading and non-aggressive questioning that gives an opportunity for someone she suspect's to give an unfiltered answer that might be alignment indicative.
141 Null. I'd like to see a bit more prodding here from town. The overall state of the game at the time of this post explains the dispassion, however.
143 Lean town. Scum could use QQ as an easy lynch, but instead Cheeky is leveling with QQ, and trying to get players to take meaningful stances. All the while Cheeky is taking a meaningful stance pretty consistently, much like I said Titus has been. Note how these two contrast from TSE, who stays light on his feet even when making reads.
144 Null. If 141 is coming from town|cheeky, this this post is town.
145 Null.
154 Lean town. I would feel the same way if I was in the game already playing as town trying to be productive and everyone else is either posting nonsense or still needs to catch up to contribute.
155 Lean town. Despite ^above, still pushing the DP forward.
181 Null. The actual gameplay pattern cheeky mentions, however, I believe is accurate. In beginner games hosted on my former site, experienced players tended to avoid other experienced players as scum and opted to NK them early.
182 Lean town. While town take firm stances and scum do not, town still changes their stance when a reason arises to do so. Scum have to force cases to make them work and are far more likely to tunnel, and less likely to drop such an easy lynch target as QQ so lightly.
184 Lean town. Consistent with her play thus far and the reasons listed above.
191 Lean town. Wants information to act off of, but understands the value of a reaction test and doesn't try to tear it down so that they can be in-the-know.
198 Lean town. As always, trying to generate content.
199 Lean town. See above.
205 Null. Is it the case on mafiascum that scum players never make cases early?
207 NAI.
208 Lean scum. This is the one post I don't really like. If this is true, why not bring it up before I entered the game? Could be null, and probably is, but explaining why is less valuable than seeing how @Cheeky responds.

My only scumread is TSE. My scumbucket, or the pool of players who I currently think could be scum, consists of 4 players. I'm willing to lynch any of the 4 this DP, but I'd prefer TSE.

So in the scenario where you no longer SR TSE, you are going to want to lynch anyone of the other 3 despite you not SRing them?

Yes. Lynches provide information. I'd rather lynch using a random number generator DP1 than no lynch, absent a setup that makes a no lynch advantageous. Granted that we have content to analyze, we've moved beyond the necessity of using RNG to determine a lynch target and have reasons to lynch or not lynch certain players based upon their behavior. Everyone outside of the 4 players I've mentioned have exhibited behavior or insight that leads me to not want to lynch them on DP1. I think that lynching on DP1 is good, and I think that lynching one of the 3 players in my bucket that I do null read provides more value than lynching a player I town read. This value is generated through multiple worlds theory. Assuming players who act town are town more often than not, and players who do not are town less often than so, lynching a player who does not act town will benefit the town in more worlds than it does not, and vice versa.

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

What is their scum meta?

+1

[CheekyTeeky]

So I've voted both Titus and TSE and both have scumread me in return. Tap TR is strengthened by the timing of their vote on me although I do not understand their logic.

I'm currently at:

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

[Ph0enix]

Will catch up tomorrow.