Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Amrun]

I did not like that you waited, and would not at least provide your primary suspect. I will provide my full thoughts once I have confirmed an administrative item with the moderator.

Have you been reading the game? If so, it was explicitly stated yesterday that my reads are 2 scum in {Farkran, Bingle, Nacho}.

[Amrun]

And meanwhile you have Amrun looking to the future with her going "Nacho is scum. With a backup of Hectic." - how does Hectic make even the vaguest sense of scum after a Farkran scum flip? Why wouldn't Amrun see that?

I think Farkran spending the days going after soared-Hectic-partner would be very clever. Hectic can’t argue, the chances anyone really listens is low... it would be a really big brain scum move I could see Farkran doing.

It’s almost definitely just you, though.

[Amrun]

Although, for your hot "post game Get to Know a Nacho" tip, if I were scum here, there's no way I spend all that time reading Farkran's posts and digging through his other games and reaching a "town with some reservations that I ultimately ignore" and then start mutual bussing two days later as opposed to a "FARKRAN IS TOWN" or "FARKRAN IS SCUM" declaration from then on. My justification of all that time would be using it to push an agenda which I straight up didn't, but as town, sometimes you just waste a bunch of time. Sometimes you end up in the end game with some hideous looking progressions that don't really make sense to anyone but yourself (and not really even to yourself), but, despite playing a game that is incredibly ugly, still being town in the end.

This is why I leaned to Bingle over you but at this stage in the game, it doesn’t hold weight anymore.

Let’s pretend you have successfully mislynched me. I have flipped town. Sujimichi is killed overnight.

Who is scum?

That’s the scenario I’m at - one of the people left is scum but everyone has at least one good reason why they aren’t.

I don’t really care if I’m lynched in the end because the result will be the same. I’m town. But if I’m town and you’re town, the game gets very dicey - in fact I think we just lose.

Alternative thoughts are Chara is scum or Hectic is scum. Those don’t seem especially likely to me and the reasons they are not scum with Farkran are stronger than yours.

[Sujimichi]

Can you point me to the post where you explicitly state that? I have been reading, and as far as I am aware you were pushing Bingle/Farkran toward the end of the last phase and a provided reads list that was not explicit in a Nachomamma8 Mafia read.

[Amrun]

I think chemist flip added scum equity to nacho. It also adds credence to my Bingle/Farkran solve because Bingle went through quite a bit of effort to flip chemist “first.”

My read wavers on nacho quite a bit. If one of my scum picks is wrong, nacho probably fills in the gap.

Chara, same questions back to you.

@suji

[Chara]

Amrun: it made sense to me at the time for some reason, but i don't think i understand what you mean by giving you that opening on Bingle. why wouldn't scum Chara have done that? (referring to 2274)

[Amrun]

Why would you have? It would have looked quite bad for you I think, once Bingle flipped town?

Idk thinking about it more maybe that’s not the most sane reasoning actually. Bleh. Then you’re the one who pointed it out.

I still think you’re town anyway.

[Chara]

If your primary way to understand my play in endgame is suddenly digging through progressions post-Chemist lynch then you will end up voting me 100% of the time and might as well save yourself the anguish now and vote for me. I've spent my time studying the game and spending actual time thinking about things - my play from here on out is more of a "heart of the cards" type scenario.

i like to think i'm capable of figuring out if you're town here or not, so give me a little credit before you say i need to vote you right now if i'm even considering it.

the games still going on, the fact that i have reasons for everyone to be town means one of those is wrong, i know that well enough.
i asked when you started to feel suspicious about Amrun because it seemed like you had the case ready to go.
you didn't expect the game to continue, so i'd want to know when in between Bingle's flip and now you realized that your townread on me was better or that you didn't like Amrun's positioning yesterday or today.

[Chara]

for the record, i am all about intuitive play and tonereading, and i am definitely planning on calling upon the heart of the cards the next time i need to.

[Chara]

Why would you have? It would have looked quite bad for you I think, once Bingle flipped town?

Idk thinking about it more maybe that’s not the most sane reasoning actually. Bleh. Then you’re the one who pointed it out.

I still think you’re town anyway.

to be fair, i didn't actually notice until Nacho brought it up.

[Sujimichi]

I think chemist flip added scum equity to nacho. It also adds credence to my Bingle/Farkran solve because Bingle went through quite a bit of effort to flip chemist “first.”

My read wavers on nacho quite a bit. If one of my scum picks is wrong, nacho probably fills in the gap.

Chara, same questions back to you.

@suji

This is not explicit and was followed by the below:

Spoiler: Possible Mafia Reads

What are the possible teams that you're working with today, Amrun?

Farkran/Bingle has been my pick for scumteam since before either of them occupied those slots.

I’m really ok lynching Farkran today. At this point, I’ll take what I can get. But are we really all just cool with Bingle ignoring this thread?

What are YOUR picks for scum, Nacho?

I’m sitting here thinking about nacho/Chara and I’ll be sonpissed off if that’s it.

I don’t think Farkran was going to be lynched on day 2, but I absolutely think I, personally, could have rallied a farkran mislynch at some point in the game as scum, as PoE narrows. Like I think it would be easy to do and competent scum would think so as well, though I could be wrong. I think any scum we have here is competent, so... I mean they could have a different perspective than me, but they’re definitely competent.

I don’t think a farkran/nacho team is out of the question but it’s not great, no. Nacho’s treatment of the farkran slot has been pretty weird either way and I can’t decide what it’s more indicative of.

But Nacho/Chara team is now bothering me.

You know what would be funny?

Farkran/Hectic. Lol

Amrun: what are your reads independent of team analysis?

Honestly, they’re similar. Throughout the game I have simply attempted to make sure my reads weren’t disqualified from being a team, as opposed to team hunting.

I’ll do a reads list anyway but it’s same old:

Farkran: some things I tonally TR, but he’s shown the least re-evaluation, and I think the reason he’s been hard to lynch besides seeming like they could go through is that they are probably just scum.

Bingle: definitely SR in a vacuum. Obviously. Have liked today’s content more than any other day’s which has me questioning.

Chara: I really rarely question my TR of Chara because we have been in line all game and that disturbs me, yet I can’t talk myself out of it.

Nacho: I had high hopes that have been dashed. I don’t understand his progression on farkran, but does he really go that blatant wishy washy as scum?

[Chara]

Although, for your hot "post game Get to Know a Nacho" tip, if I were scum here, there's no way I spend all that time reading Farkran's posts and digging through his other games and reaching a "town with some reservations that I ultimately ignore" and then start mutual bussing two days later as opposed to a "FARKRAN IS TOWN" or "FARKRAN IS SCUM" declaration from then on. My justification of all that time would be using it to push an agenda which I straight up didn't, but as town, sometimes you just waste a bunch of time. Sometimes you end up in the end game with some hideous looking progressions that don't really make sense to anyone but yourself (and not really even to yourself), but, despite playing a game that is incredibly ugly, still being town in the end.

can't you play an ugly scumgame too? i feel like you're making the point that scum Nacho is better than this, while town Nacho was just wasting time with something that ended up being incorrect.

that's referring to your point by the way, i don't think your play has been "ugly" in any sense, and i don't think your progression here can't have happened as town, though you seem to think it was one you can't adequately explain.

[Chara]

if Amrun's scum i'm really impressed with how natural her reactions are, and have been throughout.
she does really strongly TR me now where before she was underlining it with paranoia, but it doesn't feel shoehorned in.

[Sujimichi]

I will restate that my original thoughts as to the Mafia team at the end of Day 1 were Farkran and Amrun. I have not really changed much in my opinion of that, especially now that Farkran has revealed as Mafia. As stated briefly in post 2263, I also do not like how Amrun has entered into this day as she delayed her response until such time that Nachomamma8 provided his, and she wouldn't even provide her primary suspect. I do not find her assertion in post 2275 that she explicitly had two scum in Nachomamma8/Bingle/Farkran in the previous Day phase to be credible as when I requested where this was explicitly provided her example in post 2279 was not explicit and as I show in post 2285 she made several other team associations afterward.

As I told Hectic in the Spared PT, I did not, and do not, believe that the stances that Amrun has taken throughout this game to have been real. This began with her read on me on Day 1 (up until my claim as the Friendly Neighbor) as she seemed to be refusing to genuinely engage with me with regard to my questions and asking her to explain her rationale. It also felt as if she was looking for reasons to find me aligned with Mafia and push that rather than finding me Mafia due to the information contained in this thread.

The following is information I provided to Hectic when he thought that Nachomamma8 was Mafia, and I thought Amrun was Mafia.

Spoiler: Thoughts and Quotes

I do not believe her progression on Farkran and the application of descriptors to his play. For example:

There is literally no one I feel comfortable sparing in this moment, and I don’t think that will change.

Farkran’s case is BONKERS, but almost maybe too bonkers to be scum.

For some reason I’m feeling like Psyche is genuine today, even if I disagree with him.

I do kind of feel like one of nacho/alimdia slot are scum now, though likely not both. I await seeing what these slots do.

I do have research to do before I firm up my reads.

There is also a lot of agreeing with Farkran's points regarding Sparing versus Fighting and stating that her read on Farkran "flipflops":

this is important so i'll repeat it. pursuing both spares and fights seriously is more valuable than only pursuing spares, even if you ultimately want a spare.

Psyche has some short walls, that's exciting.
regarding being cagey about towncasing: i still don't know if it will do more harm than good.

i do scumread Farkran but i don't love Psyche's angle of "anyone not hard townreading Sujimichi from his play should have been" because it's both hindsighty and silly to expect everyone will read him the same way.

I keep flip flopping my read on Farkran, like, day to day. Right now I feel like he’s pushing in a way that seems he believes it, which is towny. Tomorrow I’ll change my mind.

And post such as the following make me think of associations:

snip

HURT: Hectic

I’m not going to read ISO’s and I’m sheeping you because Amrun says you logic is shit without disagreeing with any results. When the consensus seems to be “the new guy can solve the game for us!” actually pushing something is probably a town move and I don’t see signs that anyone else has done so.

I do disagree with results.

Hectic is probably town, Chara is very likely town, and Replica is a townlean though not as confident. All of this is readily available information. I don’t know what gave you the impression that I didn’t disagree with Farkran’s results besides you not remotely giving a shit or trying.

@Farkran: I’ll respond to you later. Don’t let me forget!

She then progresses to including Farkran in her potential Mafia teams but finds a reason to push the other person instead. She votes Farkran in post 1839, but gives herself an out with "I'm so conflicted about this game" and "this game is so frustrating" that just does not come across as true. It then progresses to the following where Bingle becomes the consensus scum read between all of her teams.

What were those viable pairings, and why do you think Nacho is town?

What were which viable pairings? Do you mean with Bingle?

Bingle/Farkran is my preferred solve, and you know that.

Bingle/Chemist is viable too.

Bingle/Nacho also works.

Bingle/Chara works, even Bingle/Replica though I think the last is a little less likely.

I think the only Bingle pairing that is obviously untrue is Bingle/Amrun.


I think nacho is making a genuine effort to sort you and I follow his train of thought very clearly. It’s not the strongest TR I have ... maybe a townlean? If I were to add one person to my lynch pool it would be nacho, but I’d still rather keep him out, mostly for the original reasoning I had of him really sticking his neck out for Hectic.

She was hesitant to move to Chemist1422, and Farkran tried to move on Nachomamma8. However, in the course of 3 pages, Chemist1422 was lynched with both Amrun and Farkran on the lynch voting with Bingle with the expediency of a lynch necessary; however, the deadline was approximately two days away.

As mentioned in my last point in the spoiler section, I also agree with Hectic with regard to vote coordination, and we seemed to agree on our reads in the Spared PT by the end of the previous Day phase (and always agreed on Farkran).

[Amrun]

I really don’t have the energy for this. If I need to be killed for PoE, so be it.

Why saying “scum is farkran/Bingle and if one these it’s wrong it’s nacho” repeatedly, ad nauseum, with a full reads list is not explicit enough, I don’t know, nor do I care.

I am not interested in stating my obvious stances for Sujimichi. I am interested in sorting nacho. I delayed my answer for a reason. Why anyone would think that reason would be scum motivated is just ??????

[Amrun]

I obviously engaged in speculation of other teams, some of them obviously for a joke and some of them just to check myself and make sure I still felt the same way. I think that’s pretty freaking obvious and acting like saying “you know what would be funny, Hectic/farkran” makes me inconsistent is just laughable.

[Chara]

i just don't scumread her. i'm not sure i'm capable of shifting a lynch onto Nacho or if i even should, though. i keep thinking Amrun makes the most logical sense as Farkran's partner and so it shouldn't be her by virtue of... something, it should be Nacho and he's succeeded on a gambit. and if Amrun's lynched and she's scum we win, and if she flips town i get to be right, but either way it's not my fault, because if she's scum and i successfully prevent her lynch then that's the worst.

[Chara]

Sujimichi: i did read your case, that wasn't me just ignoring it.

[Amrun]

I’m just kind of at the point where if it’s Chara I’m fucking pocketed so whatever. I don’t think it is.

[Amrun]

Chara, why do you feel you can’t pivot it into nacho? I feel like you could.

[Chara]

if Hectic really trusts my judgement, maybe. in terms of ability to do it i probably could. i know i shouldn't be making decisions based on being afraid of taking responsibility.

[Chara]

how sure are you it's Nacho and not Hectic?

[Chara]

i don't have a rebuttal to Suji's case, really. the main part of it, i do agree i don't think you had a serious belief in someone outside of Farkran/Bingle/Nacho being scum, and i don't think you need to hold off on saying so strategically.

[Chara]

i guess i do have a rebuttal? i think Farkran's play was really out there, i think his partner was definitely aware of it, and i think if you were scum with him you would have done more to distance. i think Nacho put a lot of effort into doing exactly that. there's Hectic again but like. i TR Hectic, it's been a while since he was spared but i still like my reasons for it, and i don't TR Nacho.

[Sujimichi]

if Hectic really trusts my judgement, maybe. in terms of ability to do it i probably could. i know i shouldn't be making decisions based on being afraid of taking responsibility.

Yes, I do think that Amrun is likely the last Mafia member, and I have outlined why I do. However, I am not so obstinate that I am unwilling to listen and consider a differing opinion from someone other than Amrun since there is only one Mafia member left and this is a team game. If you think I am wrong, please let me know why.