Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[CheekyTeeky]

Rereading Lunar ISO I think I could lean scum there, there's far less content than I remembered. Also find it suspicious that she automatically assumed Titus vs Tap was SvT when I highlighted Titus moving off the wagon.

[CheekyTeeky]

Saw TSE and Phoenix as town while spectating. Will reread the game more carefully tomorrow; not feeling mafia right now.

Are you feeling mafia yet?

[CheekyTeeky]

If this is true, why not bring it up before I entered the game?

I suspected TSE prior to your entry but when you pointed out his bizzare rolefishing with Lunar that strengthened them. TSE/Lunar unlikely SvS imo.

[LuckyLuciano]

So I've voted both Titus and TSE and both have scumread me in return. Tap TR is strengthened by the timing of their vote on me although I do not understand their logic.

I'm currently at:

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

Phoenix is the second scum btw.

[CheekyTeeky]

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

Oh I forgot Karnage will skim his ISO in a bit.

Pedit: what? Why is Phoenix scum?

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh wait LL replaced Lunar hmm.

[LuckyLuciano]

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

Oh I forgot Karnage will skim his ISO in a bit.

Pedit: what? Why is Phoenix scum?

I'd rather not elaborate the case and split the wagon that I'm trying to build on TSE when over half the players in this game are inactive or disinterested. Just know if we lynch TSE and he flips scum, and I die in the night, that you lynch Phoenix tomorrow.

[LuckyLuciano]

Would the players who willingly signed up for this game, just perhaps, like to play the game?

[Homura]

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.

Not convinced by your analysis of 30. I can see your rationale, but considering the context of the post (early game, barely post-RVS), it's far out to say TSE was trying spin Lunar's mafioso comment into a setup slip. From 30 and 35 it's evident TSE leaned on the latter of the two scenarios he presented, and therefore the wording of "sorta townslip" implies he didn't believe it was one. Subsequently, scum!TSE can't claim he read Lunar as town in case of a mislynch.

WRT 31, feel like you're specifically taking issue with TSE taking Titus's vote progression as NAI when both Tapioca and Phoenix also took it as such. I found it NAI and leaned town-indicative only after Titus elaborated. What's different with TSE?

[Homura]

What do you think of the TSE-Titus exchange in posts 164-168?

[LuckyLuciano]

Spoiler:

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.

Not convinced by your analysis of 30. I can see your rationale, but considering the context of the post (early game, barely post-RVS), it's far out to say TSE was trying spin Lunar's mafioso comment into a setup slip. From 30 and 35 it's evident TSE leaned on the latter of the two scenarios he presented, and therefore the wording of "sorta townslip" implies he didn't believe it was one. Subsequently, scum!TSE can't claim he read Lunar as town in case of a mislynch.

You are missing the point entirely. You are saying that TSE more strongly believes that there are 2 mafia goons than LR making a townslip is indicative of him being town, but there is no reason for town!TSE to uniquely believe this. There is, however, unique reason for scum!TSE to believe this, he knows that there are two goons. The saving-face part of the analysis is the less important part.

WRT 31, feel like you're specifically taking issue with TSE taking Titus's vote progression as NAI when both Tapioca and Phoenix also took it as such. I found it NAI and leaned town-indicative only after Titus elaborated. What's different with TSE?

Phoenix is scum and Tapioca is new.

What do you think of the TSE-Titus exchange in posts 164-168?

Fluff with potential. In other words, TSE gets to be active without meaningfully contributing to the DP, and if Titus doesn't give a good defense, then TSE can go for the easy mislynch target of QQ and still not have to combat Titus later on as he's tied his scum!Titus read to scum!QQ, allowing him to stay light on his feet when QQ flips town.

Look, the mafia is between TSE, Phoenix, you, and Karnage. TSE might be town, but if we lynch within this group we win. Unless strong reason can be given to lynch somebody outside of this pool, let's just start dropping the votes. DP1 has shown an immense amount of disinterest and inactivity with numerous replacements. Let's just get a lynch and move on to DP2. We'll have far more information from (1) the flip, (2) the NK, and (3) night phase actions. Dragging on DP1 is just going to cause players to further lose interest.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Homura, after catching up on the entire DP, do you have any thoughts other than the minute details you decided to pick at in those two posts?

[Titus]

LL, I think your headstrong nature is doing you no favors. Your extreme confidence that only your way is correct, combined with your impatience give you a salesman type vibe at best. Your attitude is hostile and doesn't encourage people to talk or reveal who their partners may be. Your tactic might work on debate.org but not here.

If you're so sure scum is in your pool, see what mislynches scum go for and why. How people interact with each other shows their priorities.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Titus, who would you like to lynch this DP?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

What is their scum meta?

Sheepyish.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

I've pretty much caught up on the DP. I'm going to be heading to sleep soon though. My preliminary thoughts are as follows (These were all notes being posted in the order I took them):

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.
- Leaning town on QQ. This sort of play, in my experience, never comes from a truly new player. He either has experience on MS and is an alt account who actually shouldn't be in the game, or he has off-site experience. Either way, he's either trolling or actually trying to win. If he's trolling then it isn't work reading him. If he's trying to win, then there is a rationale behind his post. [I'm redacting the rest of my notes here as it is more beneficial to mafia than town.]

-----

Follow-up on TSE

- I dislike #31 and #35.
-- #31, TSE appears to be consistently avoiding taking a stance. Sure, it's the earliest stages of the game where reads are weakest, but that is even more reason for town to pursue their gut reads in order to generate discussion and establish behavioral reads. Mafia benefits from leaving as many doors open by avoiding a static advocacy. In my experience, players who stay light on their feet are more often mafia than town. As town, players are less likely to even consider the need to change their views until a reason to do so is presented. As a figure of speech, they navigate through the DP with their feet more firmly planted.
-- #35 Let's break down his logic. TSE claims that if there is a mafia PR listed in the mafia pm, then it would not be normal for a player who has read that mafia pm to use the term, "Mafioso." This is because, while "mafioso" may be their default lingo when referring to mafia, this would be subconsciously replaced by the specified name for the mafia role provided in the role pm. Therefore, either (1) there is no mafia power role in the mafia pm, or (2) LR is town and has not read the mafia pm. (1) is a faulty deduction because even lacking a power role, the mafia pm should still state that the players are mafia goons, and that specified name for the mafia players would still override "mafioso" in LR's subconscious. As TSE is an SE player, it's possible that he has made this logical mistake before in the past. If he can go through his own meta and show an instance in which he's done so as town, I would read this as NAI. Absent a case of him having done this before as town, it feels like artificial analysis and he looks like scum to me.

-----

- Titus is probably town. Of all players in the game, they have shown the most consistent conviction in their reads and development thereof. Even when people cling to RVS, Titus is trying to progress the game so that the town have substantive interactions to build reads off of.

-----

- Cheeky is also town; for similar reasons as Titus.

-----

- Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura). Even though the Phi slot hasn't posted substance yet, I'm leaning town on everyone else so far so by PoE he's in this group. Reads can change later on, but I'm fine with a DP1 lynch of any of the above pending reasons to vote otherwise. As TSE is my strongest scumread atm, VOTE: TSE.

Fair.
And I’m actually not great at communicating.
I’m better at getting good reads/solves.

So you say you lean scum on Karnage yes?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

I dont know about their meta but I didn't like 205

Wow nice entrance, I'm sold. Both on LL being town and TSE

having no WIM

because he's

scum here.

VOTE: TSE

LL is this your first game of mafia?

@CheekyTeeky

Elaborate on Bolded.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

So I've voted both Titus and TSE and both have scumread me in return. Tap TR is strengthened by the timing of their vote on me although I do not understand their logic.

I'm currently at:

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

Why is Karnage absent on this list?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Rereading Lunar ISO I think I could lean scum there, there's far less content than I remembered. Also find it suspicious that she automatically assumed Titus vs Tap was SvT when I highlighted Titus moving off the wagon.

Ok uh. You may be coming down with something known as “Amnesiac”

Because you just said you Town read LL.
Yet you scum read the person they replaced?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

Oh I forgot Karnage will skim his ISO in a bit.

Pedit: what? Why is Phoenix scum?

MK.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Oh wait LL replaced Lunar hmm.

MK.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Ok so now just elaborate on Bolded LOL.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Could be wrong about Cheeky Here.
Depending on the response they give.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

What is their scum meta?

Sheepyish.

Could you give an example?

Spoiler:

I've pretty much caught up on the DP. I'm going to be heading to sleep soon though. My preliminary thoughts are as follows (These were all notes being posted in the order I took them):

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.
- Leaning town on QQ. This sort of play, in my experience, never comes from a truly new player. He either has experience on MS and is an alt account who actually shouldn't be in the game, or he has off-site experience. Either way, he's either trolling or actually trying to win. If he's trolling then it isn't work reading him. If he's trying to win, then there is a rationale behind his post. [I'm redacting the rest of my notes here as it is more beneficial to mafia than town.]

-----

Follow-up on TSE

- I dislike #31 and #35.
-- #31, TSE appears to be consistently avoiding taking a stance. Sure, it's the earliest stages of the game where reads are weakest, but that is even more reason for town to pursue their gut reads in order to generate discussion and establish behavioral reads. Mafia benefits from leaving as many doors open by avoiding a static advocacy. In my experience, players who stay light on their feet are more often mafia than town. As town, players are less likely to even consider the need to change their views until a reason to do so is presented. As a figure of speech, they navigate through the DP with their feet more firmly planted.
-- #35 Let's break down his logic. TSE claims that if there is a mafia PR listed in the mafia pm, then it would not be normal for a player who has read that mafia pm to use the term, "Mafioso." This is because, while "mafioso" may be their default lingo when referring to mafia, this would be subconsciously replaced by the specified name for the mafia role provided in the role pm. Therefore, either (1) there is no mafia power role in the mafia pm, or (2) LR is town and has not read the mafia pm. (1) is a faulty deduction because even lacking a power role, the mafia pm should still state that the players are mafia goons, and that specified name for the mafia players would still override "mafioso" in LR's subconscious. As TSE is an SE player, it's possible that he has made this logical mistake before in the past. If he can go through his own meta and show an instance in which he's done so as town, I would read this as NAI. Absent a case of him having done this before as town, it feels like artificial analysis and he looks like scum to me.

-----

- Titus is probably town. Of all players in the game, they have shown the most consistent conviction in their reads and development thereof. Even when people cling to RVS, Titus is trying to progress the game so that the town have substantive interactions to build reads off of.

-----

- Cheeky is also town; for similar reasons as Titus.

-----

- Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura). Even though the Phi slot hasn't posted substance yet, I'm leaning town on everyone else so far so by PoE he's in this group. Reads can change later on, but I'm fine with a DP1 lynch of any of the above pending reasons to vote otherwise. As TSE is my strongest scumread atm, VOTE: TSE.

Fair.
And I’m actually not great at communicating.
I’m better at getting good reads/solves.

So you say you lean scum on Karnage yes?

No. I'm more inclined to believe phoenix is scum than Karnage. My position is simple. I believe lynching DP1 is net positive to the town in comparison to no lynching, absent reason derived from the setup to no lynch. I have reason specific to each player not in my scum bucket to believe they are town. I'd rather lynch someone who has not shown themselves to be town than someone who has. Just because I'm willing to lynch someone does not mean I think that they are scum. Who would you like to lynch this dp?

[TrueSoulEnergy]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I think there playing in their scum meta.

LL is Town.

What is their scum meta?

Sheepyish.

Could you give an example?

Spoiler:

I've pretty much caught up on the DP. I'm going to be heading to sleep soon though. My preliminary thoughts are as follows (These were all notes being posted in the order I took them):

- Leaning scum on TSE. If TSE is scum, we are playing setup A or B. #30 likely to come from scum within a PR mafia that is looking for town to hint that the Goon + Goon theory is wrong. Any town that knows the setup is not C would only know so because they are a power role.
-- Further, in my initial reading, an again in my rereading, while I agree that the usage of "mafioso" could be a town slip (LR is a new player using the lingo he is used to, if the official lingo for mafioso on MS is Mafia Goon, then the term mafioso wouldn't be at the forefront of a new scum's mind when referring to mafia), I highly dislike it being called a "sorta" townslip. Either he believes it's a townslip or not. To even call this out as a town slip is rather acute analysis, and as town I believe he would read it more strongly. As mafia, he is incentivized to avoid heavily establishing townies as innocent. The whole post feels artificially constructed such for the reasons listed above, but also so that in event of a mislynch he can come back and say he read LR as a town early on in order to try and get town cred.
- Leaning town on QQ. This sort of play, in my experience, never comes from a truly new player. He either has experience on MS and is an alt account who actually shouldn't be in the game, or he has off-site experience. Either way, he's either trolling or actually trying to win. If he's trolling then it isn't work reading him. If he's trying to win, then there is a rationale behind his post. [I'm redacting the rest of my notes here as it is more beneficial to mafia than town.]

-----

Follow-up on TSE

- I dislike #31 and #35.
-- #31, TSE appears to be consistently avoiding taking a stance. Sure, it's the earliest stages of the game where reads are weakest, but that is even more reason for town to pursue their gut reads in order to generate discussion and establish behavioral reads. Mafia benefits from leaving as many doors open by avoiding a static advocacy. In my experience, players who stay light on their feet are more often mafia than town. As town, players are less likely to even consider the need to change their views until a reason to do so is presented. As a figure of speech, they navigate through the DP with their feet more firmly planted.
-- #35 Let's break down his logic. TSE claims that if there is a mafia PR listed in the mafia pm, then it would not be normal for a player who has read that mafia pm to use the term, "Mafioso." This is because, while "mafioso" may be their default lingo when referring to mafia, this would be subconsciously replaced by the specified name for the mafia role provided in the role pm. Therefore, either (1) there is no mafia power role in the mafia pm, or (2) LR is town and has not read the mafia pm. (1) is a faulty deduction because even lacking a power role, the mafia pm should still state that the players are mafia goons, and that specified name for the mafia players would still override "mafioso" in LR's subconscious. As TSE is an SE player, it's possible that he has made this logical mistake before in the past. If he can go through his own meta and show an instance in which he's done so as town, I would read this as NAI. Absent a case of him having done this before as town, it feels like artificial analysis and he looks like scum to me.

-----

- Titus is probably town. Of all players in the game, they have shown the most consistent conviction in their reads and development thereof. Even when people cling to RVS, Titus is trying to progress the game so that the town have substantive interactions to build reads off of.

-----

- Cheeky is also town; for similar reasons as Titus.

-----

- Scum is probably between TSE, Phoenix, Karnage, and Phi (Homura). Even though the Phi slot hasn't posted substance yet, I'm leaning town on everyone else so far so by PoE he's in this group. Reads can change later on, but I'm fine with a DP1 lynch of any of the above pending reasons to vote otherwise. As TSE is my strongest scumread atm, VOTE: TSE.

Fair.
And I’m actually not great at communicating.
I’m better at getting good reads/solves.

So you say you lean scum on Karnage yes?

No. I'm more inclined to believe phoenix is scum than Karnage. My position is simple. I believe lynching DP1 is net positive to the town in comparison to no lynching, absent reason derived from the setup to no lynch. I have reason specific to each player not in my scum bucket to believe they are town. I'd rather lynch someone who has not shown themselves to be town than someone who has. Just because I'm willing to lynch someone does not mean I think that they are scum. Who would you like to lynch this dp?

Anyone who isn’t Tap, You, Titus or Phoenix. (Or me)

As those are my Town Reads.