Open 773: Masons and Mafia: RVS Awards (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:29 pm

Post by popsofctown »

the way my thesis works, like, if TSE is your top townread, you can't actually accurately put him somewhere between 91%-100% town probability even though a value of 91 and a value of 100 each correctly position him in an ordered list. That would not be a shade it would apply to my own TR.

that mucks up those later ensuing numbers

it doesn't directly impact play strategy anyway though, like, if you're in a 3p LyLo and you don't know whether you 87% or 93% townread one of the players it's utterly irrelevant to the correct vote to cast, which is why I don't feel as compelled to forsake my spicy theseis on the basis of its opposition to popular opinion

but it makes me less excited about %age based discourse
it becomes perhaps relevant for certain PRs none of which exist in this game
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:34 pm

Post by popsofctown »

In post 1898, Auro wrote:Pops, I guess one test of whether a tunnel is good/bad is to observe reactions to opposite behaviors? Like, if you do X and I call it scummy, then you do not-X and I also call that scummy. Have I done that? Like you've been consistent in terms of behaviour :P
I have had that vibe occasionally that I feel like 2 of the shades you've done come from somewhat different paradigms, I don't think any of them were as straightforward as you did black then you did white and both were scummy. They've factored into my read as somewhat scum indicative but all universes where you're town are universes where you are heavily confbiased and I don't think jumping paradigms is impossible when confbiased. Like, when I'm confbiased on a slot, I sometimes feel this urge to jump to a different paradigm because it would put my tunnel as scum, then like at the last minute abstain, because I realize it's disingenuous/confbiasy, and that probably means that for each of those times there are 9 times I don't even realize what I am doing and just flip to confbias
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:34 pm

Post by Auro »

That it doesn't impact play strategy is right because after a certain threshold I'm likely to just treat them as town anyway.

TSE read I feel is an order higher. Maybe treat %ages on a logarithmic sense and then 90/99 feel a lot different?

I agree that play %ages are mostly arbitrary and it's the relative positioning that wholly matters, but what % someone attributes someone else to still does give pointers to what they think.
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Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:35 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 1901, popsofctown wrote:I have had that vibe occasionally that I feel like 2 of the shades you've done come from somewhat different paradigms, I don't think any of them were as straightforward as you did black then you did white and both were scummy.
Please point these out?
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Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:37 pm

Post by popsofctown »

In post 1899, Auro wrote:
In post 1889, popsofctown wrote:is that about me
am I 115%
I feel special
As much as I annoy you this game and scumread you, I like you as a player!
i feel similarly which is why when I got a little bitchy like half a RL day or so ago I figure it was probably my own mood rather than fault on your part

because mispushing someone in a social deduction game is inherently obnoxious and requires very little additional poor conduct to generate grudges /odio (too drunk to think fully in english) so I doubted it was actually your conduct and I will probably +probability queuing with you after this game
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:41 pm

Post by popsofctown »

In post 1903, Auro wrote:
In post 1901, popsofctown wrote:I have had that vibe occasionally that I feel like 2 of the shades you've done come from somewhat different paradigms, I don't think any of them were as straightforward as you did black then you did white and both were scummy.
Please point these out?
I don't remember them in specifics because I don't believe them to be alignment indicative for the reasons I've just explained

My brain is like a skyrim inventory the less important it is the more likely it is to be discarded. it was pretty likely for "some pair of posts that fits that pattern" also got discarded but i guess it didn't

I could dredge through your iso and reverse engineer it but that exercise is similar enough to how scum plays the game at a base level that it is not very likely to help you townread me, soberpops' posting the rest of this RL week is likely more useful
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:51 pm

Post by Auro »

I'll try putting my CSF townread into more comprehensive words tomorrow. If we're both town then I'm missing something wrong there and I feel there's a higher chance you're wrong on Klick than I am on CSF.

I have some work deadlines and I won't be able to find a burst of continuous time I'd require to make a proper case

Pedit: Once I'm convinced my tunnel is bad that's a good starting point to get to townread you to the extent that I wouldn't want to lynch you at least, though.
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Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 am

Post by popsofctown »

Deadline is 5 RL days, that's a bit of time, do you finish returning the desired work before that? If it's a 6 day work deadline, the quantity of RL days does not matter.

My certainty on Klick!town does not match what you seem to have represented for CSF!Town, especially after accounting for pocketing skew (CSF also townreads you, but has done little more than flatly state your town, where Klick has gone in-depth and scum!Klick is bloating my feelings of self-worth.)

But I feel like your statement isn't based on that and is instead is based on "I'm gud and I think ur bad" which is :(

According to what Chemist pointed out which I feel ashamed for not figuring out on my own it's +1 "allowed" mislynch for each correct lycnh so even if I can work with you enough to make you feel like you don't want to kill me the most but definitely want to kill me later that can lead to winning the game so I want to try to accomplish that.
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:07 am

Post by Auro »

I don't get your first stanza? My deadlines are today (for a certain partial set of items) and tomorrow (bringing the whole thing to completion). Tomorrow after that's done with I'll have time.

And my promise to attempt explaining the CSF townread is to show it's not simply "my reads better lol" and also because I know I haven't represented it enough.
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Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:13 am

Post by popsofctown »

I'm just projecting my occupation onto yours probably, if something needs to happen for us it's generally ~4-6 days or it's the same if nothing happened at all, we never get 24 or 48 hour deadlines.

and I guess you might be able to make a showing of CSF town that would be better than my showing of Klick town that has basis in your higher confidence so this kind of circles back. If you want I'll go into the things from him that have struck me as town indicative and why

doesn't sound like deadlining has anything to do with whether any of this sorting will occur as part of this dayphase versus the next one.
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:21 am

Post by Auro »

Spoiler: Work Stuff
Mine wasn't a 24-48 hour deadline lol. I'm a software developer, this feature we've been working on is supposed to be in its final form by tomorrow. We've been working on this for a couple months, just that the closer to deadline we get the more work there is :P Some delays caused us to have a design review (where they suggest high level changes, preferably done before you implement any code) only yesterday, so there's a bunch of stuff to take care of.

We don't work on production code directly - we create branches (copies) of code, work on those, and "pull" our changes back into the main branch. Each release version has a main branch, so now I've to start "pulling" the stuff I wrote from a branch of a previous version into the new version. There's likely other changes that were made between the point where we branched the old version and the release of the new version (just a few days ago) which probably might conflict with the changes I made, so I anticipate I'll spend some time fixing those. Then I have to test the whole thing over different country builds and document everything and do a bunch of other stuff by tomorrow aaaaaaaa
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Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:26 am

Post by Auro »

In post 1909, popsofctown wrote:and I guess you might be able to make a showing of CSF town that would be better than my showing of Klick town that has basis in your higher confidence so this kind of circles back.
Well, we'll have a clearer understanding of where we stand, and maybe it'll shape my reads more accurately.
Besides, you have to understand that I'll always place a higher value on my reads generally (especially at this level of involvement I've had in the game), and that doesn't necessarily mean I think "I'm gud and I think ur bad".
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Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:44 am

Post by popsofctown »

I'm alive in 3 games right now in modding 1 so if you are doing less mafia right now i tend to like excuses to forgive myself tbh so that would make me less insulted.

I'm a software engineer too but our work is very different

I think the core difference would be that our organization is so messed up we have to work on production code directly all the flipping time where probably a management structure that was highly competent would keep that from ever happening. We have "needs to be in its final form by tomorrow" sometimes, but given to us 2 days in advance, and also if we didn't provide it in its final form by tomorrow the "needs" would be a bit of a joke with how difficult our positions are to fill.

We have a new manager who has broadly signaled wanting to reverse that trend and is awesome for that but bankrupting the company by letting the production code fail would be Uncool probably
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 am

Post by Hectic »

The grass is always greener when you throw green paint over it.


Last edited by Hectic on Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:25 am

Post by Hectic »

VoteCount 7.0


RVS Award for
Harpooned by a Shark
goes to...

Klick,
Mafia Goon
, who killed himself Day 6.

It is now Day 7. Votes are reset. Deadline remains the same.

Not Voting [7]
- TrueSoulEnergy, popsofctown, Miss Lynch, Cat Scratch Fever, Auro, Sujimichi, Chemist1422

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day will end when the timer hits zero:
(expired on 2020-03-10 10:40:24)
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Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:29 am

Post by Auro »

LOL LMAO
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Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:32 am

Post by Auro »

In post 1906, Auro wrote:I feel there's a higher chance you're wrong on Klick than I am on CSF
Didn't have to wait long to find out ;)
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Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:34 am

Post by Sujimichi »

Apologies for my absence yesterday. It was unexpected. I will catch up by lunchtime today. I do see Klick was Mafia, so I am happy I was correct there.
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Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:36 am

Post by Miss Lane »

Nice!
ftr ML has played pretty well and deserves a win if they get it. - pisskop
Welp, we lost. I actually believed ML's claim. ... And seriously. We knew ML was a vote manipulator and still thought she was telling the truth. ... Well, looks like town is going to let the sk's win. That was kind of a genius play by ML. ... ML deserves this win. That was a good play on her part. - Rautherdir
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Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:36 am

Post by Miss Lane »

My life just got so much easier lol.
ftr ML has played pretty well and deserves a win if they get it. - pisskop
Welp, we lost. I actually believed ML's claim. ... And seriously. We knew ML was a vote manipulator and still thought she was telling the truth. ... Well, looks like town is going to let the sk's win. That was kind of a genius play by ML. ... ML deserves this win. That was a good play on her part. - Rautherdir
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Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:41 am

Post by Chemist1422 »

Very cool!
GTKAS

“you're an empty-glass-but-there-might-be-INVISIBLE-Water kinda guy” -Iprobablysuck
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Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:49 am

Post by Miss Lane »

Second wagon pops has started this game that scum have jumped on with fervor.
ftr ML has played pretty well and deserves a win if they get it. - pisskop
Welp, we lost. I actually believed ML's claim. ... And seriously. We knew ML was a vote manipulator and still thought she was telling the truth. ... Well, looks like town is going to let the sk's win. That was kind of a genius play by ML. ... ML deserves this win. That was a good play on her part. - Rautherdir
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Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:51 am

Post by Chemist1422 »

Spoiler: all possible worlds
TSE/Suji/pops
TSE/Suji/ML
TSE/Suji/CSF

TSE/Suji/Klick
TSE/Suji/Auro
TSE/pops/ML
TSE/pops/CSF
TSE/pops/Klick
TSE/pops/Auro
TSE/ML/CSF

TSE/ML/Klick
TSE/ML/Auro

TSE/CSF/Klick
TSE/CSF/Auro

TSE/Klick/Auro
Suji/pops/ML
Suji/pops/CSF

Suji/pops/Klick
Suji/pops/Auro
Suji/ML/CSF

Suji/ML/Klick
Suji/ML/Auro

Suji/CSF/Klick
Suji/CSF/Auro
Suji/Klick/Auro
pops/ML/CSF

pops/ML/Klick
pops/ML/Auro

pops/CSF/Klick
pops/CSF/Auro

pops/Klick/Auro
ML/CSF/Klick
ML/CSF/Auro
ML/Klick/Auro

CSF/Klick/Auro


Revised for Klick flip

TSE/Suji
TSE/ML
TSE/CSF
TSE/Auro
Suji/pops
Suji/ML
Suji/CSF
pops/ML
pops/CSF
pops/Auro
ML/CSF
CSF/Auro
GTKAS

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Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:52 am

Post by Chemist1422 »

Of note is that CSF is in 5 worlds and Auro is only in 3
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Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 am

Post by Auro »

Yeah sure Klick hard-disagrees with all my opinions making me state I lost my townread, tries wagoning CSF and spends considerable effort trying to convince us that she's scum, and keeps driving a "Auro/ML are SvS lol" point when he just accused us of SvT earlier...
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