Open 774 || Purgatory — Game Over

[Dannflor]

VC 2.2.HEAVEN

Through Heaven's Eyes

[2] implosion : Something_Smart, Looker [1] popsofctown : Elmo Teh AzN [1] Ame : Amrun [1] Elmo TeH AzN : popsofctown [1] Something_Smart : Team STRQ [2] Not Voting : Ame, implosion With 8 in limbo, it takes 5 votes to judge. The Heaven Phase I deadline is in : (expired on 2020-03-12 20:12:15) ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ Mod Notes : ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

[Elmo TeH AzN]

@Elmo I think it's easier to read hydras if you just treat them as separate players who happen to have the same avatar and alignment. Like just treat it as a 12 player game instead of a 9, only in this case if you figure out 1 person's alignment you figure out 4.

You know this is why I asked about certain people's reads in the hydra and just gave up wanting a collaborative agreement on reads. We have a bit over 4 days left.

[popsofctown]

Implosion's Ame towncase is really compelling. Ame was kind of protown to begin with.

{Looker, Ame, and Elmo} are all town past the threshold where I kind of feel like betting the game on the read, with Elmo limping over the line on that, or rather I guess reaching the veracity of that statement from a different angle, that I don't think I'll ever be able to adjust to a different read in time so it doesn't matter. The presence of the hydra is either rendering her play monolithic or running cover for a scum roll on first return to site, and I doubt the hydra actually leaves the game very soon at all, with it being impossible to heaven and Amrun seeming to have a preponderance of scum equity to hell tomorrow.
From my point of view unioned with suspending assumptions about my own slot, something I'd appreciate if S_S and maybe implo did, more, that means trying to hell correctly twice in {Amrun, implosion, S_S, pops, Team STRQ} That's five names with three scum, so that's a really easy minigame. To the extent the minigame is played with flawed premises, it's at least five names with two scum, and if it's played perfectly, town will still win.
I don't have a magical thesis here but I am hoping to motivate more townspewing from the other 4 names in this list in being excited about the other 4 names in this list. Like if you have a reason for scumreading Elmo, I kind of don't believe you, and if you have some new reason for townreading Elmo, I kind of also don't believe you. Elmo's play right now resembles that weird throwaway faction on an Age of Empires campaign map that is usually called "Burgundy" that sometimes send halfhearted attacks at you, alliances with the main more formidable adversary half the time you play based on no discernable rule, and whenever you conquer it to steal its goldmines sends you a message that it demands a tribute of 1000 gold, 500 food, and 200 wood when it has about two buildings left. You can offer it an alliance and build ten trading carts designated it and see it accept and profit you ScroogeMcDuck's horde and call it optimal play and I would just insist you had no way of knowing that's what would have actually happened.
Looker has broken his town meta stylistically based on the accounts of two independent parties, and is working based on a townblock virtually everyone considers mostly town, with variance on which nodes they wouldn't count green.
Ame has been effusing difficult-to-fake content and promising more and even if somehow scum would be the scum you'd prefer to lynch last, based on a qualitatively bad previous stance being necessary for her to even merit being in contention, as implosion laid out earlier.

With a narrowed pool I want to see more of the Other Four casing onto eachother in a way that is convincing and clearing, even if it's me and the conclusions are wrong.
Heaven phase is at least partially to blame in how it's not fundamentally a group decision that helps discern alignments, similar to how town sometimes rushed doc protect decisions in Monty Hall just to get to "good stuff"

I'm going to try to program implo's thingy now
Probably to get the same results and waste some time
I programmed a setup and lied about the results once as scum. The context was really different. But also the sweet honeyed style points were tantalizing. If I get a different %age I don't think it will prove implo is scum at all but I will have denied scum!implo the sweet honeyed style points.

[popsofctown]

I thought I was getting a "12" in my output that shouldn't be nearly that high, but it was actually a 1 mashed up next to a 2 because I didn't put in the symbol to start on a new line. I'm too dumb to breathe.

[popsofctown]

I am getting:
If we heaven town: town win% is 45.8%
If we heaven scum: town win% is 32%

Aside from my level of hubris on coding without producing semantic errors I feel like the values I got are more plausible on a common sense level. When I was walking through the individual cases I watched how like you can heaven town and let the scum dash to the parity wincon sometime so it's not fully a wash but it's partially a wash.

implo did you comment your code with scummy comments y/n

[implosion]

Do you have those as exact fractions? I don't want to post the code here because i deeply do not want to turn this mafia game into a litigation of code. But it is *entirely* plausible that my numbers are wrong. To be clear I coded it up *entirely* between posts 1045 and 1047, so i literally spent 20 minutes on it. I used the logic that we can randomly permute the 7 players left alive after heavening, and then assume that any time we need to heaven/hell someone we pick the next unused person on the list.

[implosion]

Also pops, if you think looker/ame/elmo are all town... do you think that i, as scum, spend literally 100% of my time today proselytizing those three people as town?

[Something_Smart]

Why do we care about the probabilities again?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

We don't Id rather see votes and know where people stand.

[implosion]

VOTE: implosion

[popsofctown]

you're the towniest in the five by a lot implosion.

And I don't have exact fractions because I used Monte Carlo.

[Ame]

pops do you know of the term synchronicity and do you experience it often? (non-game related)

[popsofctown]

No.
Yes.
I have a pretty easy time discarding synchronicities as coincidences because I feel as though there are billions of hypothetical synchronicities we ignore. They are fun though.

1082 guts me as a scummy post.

[popsofctown]

I beat the hardest dungeon in PAD, it took me a couple weeks. It's an achievement I get to claim repeatedly because they regularly release a new dungeon even harder than all the others they've done so far, but it is still happifying to me. The spiciest card I used is kuribo but definitely not like the scummer

[implosion]

i'm willing to accept that there's a decent chance it is literally strq/amrun/s_s. I'm kind of forced to practice what I preach and call 1077 a town post from pops. If it isn't literally those 3 then i'll probably have to rethink not just a little. But tis life.

[popsofctown]

I feel surprisingly confident that helling that trio wins the game
I still want to do everything I can to re re re eval and maximize my win percentage though.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

vote: implosion

This game just yeah.

[Team STRQ]

So hold up

Why exactly are we being scumread again?

-Summer

[Team STRQ]

I've heard a lot of "I hate hydras" "I hate the dissonance" type reasoning from multiple slots, funnily enough mostly the same slots that have done virtually nothing all game, and remarkably little from any other source in comparison

no wait, it's because Wooper had a fucking aneurysm and went off on a hair trigger every time we did literally anything

...you know, which tends to happen when I'm TOWN with him rather than scum?

-Summer

[Team STRQ]

I don't understand the Elmo and Looker townlocks still

can someone explain that for me please?

-Summer

[Team STRQ]

Looker has broken his town meta stylistically based on the accounts of two independent parties, and is working based on a townblock virtually everyone considers mostly town, with variance on which nodes they wouldn't count green.

which two independent parties is this?

-Summer

[popsofctown]

Does that mean you understand the Ame townlock? Or the town!implo consensus?

And, 1092 and 1094 are kind of the same question in that there's a strong PoE component to scumreading STRQslot
pedit: Ame and pops

[Ame]

Someone unvote please, preferably implo

[Ame]

@Summer if Q head doesn't respond to me before the phase end, I'm tunneling D2

[implosion]

unvote